@AcnYoda
Where to begin? I’ll say this in the nicest way possible, you have absolutely no clue what you’re talking about. The timelines you lay out about Iran running out of money, the regime collapsing, and the impact on the world economy are completely detached from reality.
You consistently overestimate the US position and underestimate the Iranian position. That might play well with
@KDSTONE and others consuming the same propaganda, but it’s not rooted in the real world. You present best case outcomes as guaranteed without accounting for any risk whatsoever.
“Iran runs out of money in days or weeks without oil exports”
This is wrong. Does it hurt Iran? Absolutely, but not to the level you’re describing. Iran has spent decades building sanctions workarounds, shadow oil markets, and reserve buffers. Oil is critical, but it’s not instant collapse critical.
You’re assuming other countries will work in lockstep with Trump to punish Iran. It’s the only way his strategy would work, but that’s not what’s actually happening. Recent history suggests world leaders would be wise to openly oppose him. He’s a lame duck and deeply unpopular in his own country, and even more unpopular worldwide. Look at what just happened to Viktor Orban. The pendulum is swinging against Trumpism and Trump. Openly opposing him is good politics in much of the world.
History shows that countries break ranks the moment their own economies are at risk, as they are now. As this situation increasingly threatens the global economy, countries will bypass the US to secure their own energy supplies, including our allies.
What happens to the US economy when countries do that? Russia and China have supported Iran quietly so far, but that won’t stay quiet forever because neither benefits from global economic instability. They will prop up the Iranian regime as a check on the US.
You also claim an oil shutdown cripples them for a year. That’s not accurate. Some fields can be damaged by shutdowns, but Iran’s entire system isn’t going offline for a year. Oil, even at reduced levels, will continue to move. Asia is too dependent on Iranian supply for that not to happen.
“The US can take and control Kharg Island”
This is also unrealistic. The US military could take and hold Kharg Island, but you ignore what comes next. Any US presence there would be sitting in Iran’s backyard, within range of artillery, rockets, ballistic missiles, and drones.
Every resupply, every defensive system, and every soldier is exposed. Every escalation you’re proposing invites a response, and you’re ignoring what that response looks like. If Iran’s oil infrastructure is seized or destroyed, they respond by targeting oil infrastructure across the region.
“Global impact is minimal, just slightly higher gas prices”
There is no scenario where removing millions of barrels from global supply doesn’t send shockwaves through every major economy. You’re treating oil markets like they only affect gas prices, when they actually impact every sector of the economy.
It drives up food, shipping, and the overall cost of living. Why would Russia and China tolerate that? Or any country? Why would US citizens tolerate that when Trump campaigned on lowering inflation and avoiding new foreign wars? They wouldn’t and they won’t in November. The IRGC isn’t the only player here with a ticking clock.
Look at the last two days. Iran refused to return to negotiations, and Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely. He didn’t escalate. What does that tell you?
Last week, details about the negotiations started to leak. What’s being discussed sure looks a lot like a rebranded JCPOA. If that’s where this ends, with the IRGC still in power, maintaining missile capability and enrichment capacity, giving them $20 billion, with dead American soldiers and destroyed US bases and embassies, people are going to be pissed. It won’t matter what lies Trump tells about it.
Iran’s path has always been simple. They don’t have to win, they just have to not lose and hold out long enough to make a deal. They know the economic pressure doesn’t just hit them, it hits everyone. Trump knows that too, and that’s why he keeps freaking out every few days on Truth Social.
US influence is already taking a hit as our allies openly defy Trump and countries start working around us. The post World War II order that benefited the US for decades is being weakened/destroyed in real time.
To sum it up, your timelines are detached from reality, you ignore global economic and geopolitical consequences, and you assume outcomes that history has never supported. Are you high when you post this stuff? This only touches a few of your talking points; several are just too insane to respond to.
