The New Lounge

[KDSTONE]

I agree, every president has wanted to do this, but relented from what I've read because of the advice and ramifications that it would do to region


Previous US administrations have avoided invading Iran due to the immense strategic, financial, and human costs, the likelihood of a prolonged, unstable insurgency, and the severe risk of regional destabilization. Iran’s mountainous terrain, significant military capability, and regional proxy networks pose daunting challenges compared to previous interventions in Iraq or Afghanistan.

• Risk of Regional War: An invasion could trigger a wide Middle East conflict, threatening allies, disrupting 20% of global oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz, and triggering attacks on US bases.
• Failed Military Experience: Memories of difficult, long-term engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan caused hesitation, as military analysts doubted a quick victory was possible.
• Lack of Ally Support: Regional partners, including Gulf nations (Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain), were reluctant to support a war that could invite Iranian retaliation on their soil.
• Geographical and Military Challenges: Iran’s size, population, and topography, combined with its specialized defenses, make a successful ground invasion extremely difficult and costly.
• Lack of Domestic Support: The American public has shown little appetite for another large-scale conflict.
• Strategic Alternatives: Presidents preferred containment, economic sanctions, and diplomatic negotiations (like the JCPOA) to manage Iran's influence and nuclear ambitions, rather than direct invasion.

Historically, while Iran was considered a state sponsor of terrorism, these risks outweighed the perceived benefits of a full-scale invasion

I don’t foresee boots on the ground unless it’s a limited special ops to secure the enriched uranium if Iran is unwilling to turn it over.

 

[BOOGIEMAN1914]

This is really good info, and looks all true. But nonetheless every president for 40+ years said this regime needed to be removed, or at least neutered. I don’t care if it’s a dem or red president that does this, I think it’s important to remove bad actors like this before they get a nuclear bomb and 100% use it on their neighbors, who would then have no choice but to destroy Iran too, and that’s $92m innocent Iranians killed. Nobody wants this outcome, so this had to happen sooner or later, and Trump is the only president who seems to have to courage or arrogance or whatever he has to remove or neuter this regime. And it’s about time.

just because policy wise I want this regime removed, doesn’t make it political for me. I pretty much distrust all politicians, I think they all are under the control of whichever donors are supporting them, blue and Red. But when either side does something good I’ll support it. And if a guy like Swalwell appears to allegedly have raped several women, while he’s married, with kids, I don’t support this if true. Again, not because of party, but because it’s WRONG. I want our country to be as strong and moral a country as we can possibly be. That’s my .02c.

Agree they all wanted to do more, but more than likely went with sound advice and rationality of particular outcomes imo....and to swalwell, if true he deserves the highest consequences under the law

 

[DuckDevil]

I’m not an expert on this topic, but from what’s being reported, they had 10,000+ bombs dropped on their strategic targets, their oil revenue which accounts for 90% of their economy is stopped right now, their economy is falling apart, they can’t afford to pay their evil military, etc. That to me if true is being toppled.

if someone doesn’t think their regime is evil or if someone wants their regime to stay in power that’s a different topic, but if we agree that evil regime should fall, I’m not aware of many other ways to cause it to topple without boots on the ground other than what I listed here above. I think it’s possible or even likely that IRGC regime will fall apart or be defeated over the coming months. Which is a good thing for the world and especially the Iranian people.

I’ll start with what I agree with you on. The IRGC is bad, and the world would be a better place if Iran had a different form of government from a U.S. perspective. The same can be said for North Korea and Russia, though their systems are significantly different. Concerning Iran, any government rooted in religious fundamentalism is dangerous, regardless of what religion they prescribe to. It’s not a rational, logical form of government. Religion is often used to justify terrible things by bad actors who seek power.

But that doesn’t mean the conclusion you’re drawing is correct.

There’s a big difference between weakening a regime and actually toppling it. Sanctions, bombing campaigns, and economic collapse have been applied to Iran for decades, and the regime is still standing. If economic collapse automatically led to regime change, Iran would have fallen years ago under existing sanctions. Authoritarian regimes don’t collapse the way people expect. They often consolidate power internally when external pressure increases.

The idea that you can collapse a regime like this without boots on the ground isn’t supported by recent history. Even if you do put boots on the ground,Iraq and Afghanistan show that removing a regime is the easy part. What comes after is where things fall apart. What replaces the IRGC if they fall tomorrow? That’s the question that actually matters. There’s no clear mechanism here for a stable transition of power, which is why this assumption is risky.

Calling a regime evil doesn’t tell you anything about what comes next if it collapses. If the outcome is instability, civil conflict, or a more extreme faction taking control, it’s arguably much worse.

To understand Iran and the situation we are in today, you have to go back before 1953 and look at what existed in Iran before the U.S. and the U.K. launched Operation Ajax to topple the government. We’ve actually done this before, and it paved the way for the IRGC to take control. Regime change historically doesn’t work in our favor.

Prior to the coup in 1953, real political power in Iran had shifted from the Shah to a democratically elected government run by Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. Mosaddegh was extremely popular in Iran and well respected throughout the world. He was even named Time magazine’s Man of the Year in 1951. He also wasn’t anti American. He actively sought U.S. support as a counterweight to British control, which makes the decision to remove him even more tragic.

His platform was simple. It focused on three pillars: national sovereignty, constitutional rule, and economic independence. He believed Iran should control its own resources, especially oil. He worked to strengthen parliament and reduce the Shah’s authority. Most importantly, nationalizing oil from the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company was central to his agenda.

That was a nonstarter for the U.K., as they were the ones who profited from the AIOC. This led to Operation Ajax, which I encourage you to look up. Mosaddegh was arrested by pro-Shah forces, and his government collapsed. Iran then shifted from a constitutional monarchy to an authoritarian monarchy.

The U.S.-backed Shah took power and proceeded to run the country into the ground for the next few decades, which paved the way for the revolution in the 1970s. The Shah’s rule after the coup relied heavily on repression, particularly through the SAVAK, which deepened public resentment over time. Allowing this to happen was one of Eisenhower’s biggest mistakes in an otherwise strong presidency. Unfortunately, we’re still dealing with the ramifications of that mistake today.

When people talk about unintended consequences in foreign policy, this is one of the clearest examples.

The U.S.-backed coup that toppled the government in 1953 led directly to the government that Iran has today. Had we not done that, Iran’s government would have almost certainly been more friendly, and the country would have been much better off than it is today.

My point is that wars with the goal of regime change do not work out in our favor in the long run.

We’ve seen this same pattern in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, where removing a regime created instability that was worse than what existed before. There is a consistent overestimation of how quickly power vacuums can be filled by stable, pro Western governments.

This war was ill advised for a variety of reasons. The idea that was pitched to Trump was that the regime would easily collapse under pressure. That has been proven false. The idea that pressure alone would collapse the regime ignores decades of evidence showing how resilient it has been.

It was also painfully obvious that Iran’s best card to play would be to immediately close the Strait of Hormuz, which would spike energy prices all over the world. This was done, and the economic fallout is still playing out worldwide.

The fact that the Trump administration didn’t even bother to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before launching this war shows how little thought they gave to the consequences of their actions.

American soldiers have been wounded and killed because of the lack of planning that went into this. The U.S. stockpile of interceptor missiles is now dangerously low, to the point that we are having to remove missiles from Asia and ship them to the Middle East to try to protect our assets. It will take years to rebuild that stock while simultaneously weakening our position in Asia.

Now the Trump administration is scrambling to end this war any way that it can. They know that the economic situation they’ve created is unsustainable, and that they have to end this war as quickly as possible.

But what will they gain from it? The IRGC will still be in control of Iran. They will still have the ability to close the Strait whenever they want. While they have suffered significant damage, I think, strategically, they will walk away from this war with more power than they had before it started.

I anticipate they will reach some sort of deal that looks very similar to the JCPOA that Trump pulled out of in his first term. Walking away from the JCPOA removed constraints without replacing them with anything more effective. That decision reduced visibility into Iran’s nuclear program at the same time it increased their incentive to expand it.

He’ll pretend that his deal is some big success, but it will be a strategic defeat for the U.S.

I think this is the best case scenario we can hope for at this point. Escalating the situation further will only result in higher prices, more damage, and a longer time to return to the prewar status quo.

The reason we are in this war today is because Trump pulled out of the JCPOA in his first term. Had he not done that, Iran would not have the uranium stockpile it has today. Inspections and monitoring would have continued, and Iran would not have been able to enrich uranium to the levels it has today.

Actions have consequences, and Trump’s actions on a variety of issues are all catching up with him at the same time.

So if the end result of all this is a similar deal, a stronger IRGC, and a more unstable region, what exactly did we gain from it?

 

[DuckDevil]

Lots of movement on the conflict this morning. Trump “prohibited” Israel from continuing to strike Lebanon. I can’t recall any American president ever “prohibiting” Israel from doing anything. Let’s see how much power Trump really has here. This action though may allow the ceasefire with Iran to actually hold. As a result, Iran is supposedly allowing the Strait to reopen, you know, like it was before the war started, except they’re now collecting tolls from each ship that goes through.

Rumors are circulating that the US is offering $20 billion for Iran’s uranium stockpile. This is about 21 times the amount transferred to Iran to establish the JCPOA during the Obama administration, which conservatives have been whining about for the last 10 years. I’m very curious to see what the final agreement looks like. Or if Iran even accepts it. The two biggest criticisms from the right on the JCPOA were sunset provisions and financial relief that Iran could spend to fund terrorism. The new deal being offered by the US apparently has both @KDSTONE. @KDSTONE.

If this is true, the IRGC exits the conflict still in control of Iran and at least $20 billion richer, meanwhile, the US will have spent around $55 billion, lost 15 American lives, had over 500 wounded American soldiers, depleted our interceptor missile stockpiles, had our Middle Eastern bases and embassies destroyed, lost more aircraft than in any conflict since Vietnam, and had an aircraft carrier knocked out of commission for the next two years, all to go back to essentially the same deal Obama had in place in 2015. This doesn’t even factor in the damage done to the other Middle Eastern nations and their energy production infrastructure.

Mission accomplished.

Or is it?

 

[AcnYoda]

Lots of movement on the conflict this morning. Trump “prohibited” Israel from continuing to strike Lebanon. This action may allow the ceasefire with Iran to actually hold.



As a result, Iran is supposedly allowing the Straight to be opened, you know, like it was before the war started.

Rumors are circulating that the US is offering $20 billion for Iran's uranium stockpile. This is about 21 times the cost that the Obama administration transferred to Iran to establish the JCPOA, that conservatives have been whining about for the last 10 years. I’m very curious to see what the final agreement looks like. However, ending this war as soon as possible is the right move.

If this is true, the US will have spent around $55 billion dollars, lost 15 American lives, had over 500 wounded American soldiers, depleted our interceptor missile stockpiles, had our Middle Eastern bases and embassies destroyed, lost more aircraft than any conflict since Vietnam, had an aircraft carrier knocked out of commission for the next two years, all to go back to essentially the same deal Obama had in place in 2015.

Mission accomplished.

True but to put it in perspective, if we take the LRGC at their word, they want to build a nuclear bomb, and use it, killing millions of innocent people. I prefer the outcome you detailed above far moreso than millions dead IF they build a nuclear bomb and use it, which I 100% believe they’d use. This isn’t a true government, it’s led by religious Clerics who believe death to all Jews and Death to America. My closest friends growing up are Iranians and they All wanted us to do what we did, and want us to continue bombing and pressing them until they are no longer in control.

The challenge is, there are many American people that don’t want any more American lives lost and it sounds like you don’t, then they won’t be OK with us bombing and attacking and pressuring Iran for another month or two or longer and losing any more American lives, so while I think this regime needs to be toppled, I don’t think there is enough Americans supporting what it would take for this to occur. So we can hopefully get as close to that outcome as humanly possible.

 

[DuckDevil]

True but to put it in perspective, if we take the LRGC at their word, they want to build a nuclear bomb, and use it, killing millions of innocent people. I prefer the outcome you detailed above far moreso than millions dead IF they build a nuclear bomb and use it, which I 100% believe they’d use. This isn’t a true government, it’s led by religious Clerics who believe death to all Jews and Death to America. My closest friends growing up are Iranians and they All wanted us to do what we did, and want us to continue bombing and pressing them until they are no longer in control.

The challenge is, there are many American people that don’t want any more American lives lost and it sounds like you don’t, then they won’t be OK with us bombing and attacking and pressuring Iran for another month or two or longer and losing any more American lives, so while I think this regime needs to be toppled, I don’t think there is enough Americans supporting what it would take for this to occur. So we can hopefully get as close to that outcome as humanly possible.

The outcome I detailed above was made possible by the JCPOA, which was established in 2015. Trump pulled out of that deal in 2019, which has led us to the present day. Had Trump stuck to the original deal, none of this would have happened or been necessary.

If the new deal is essentially the same, with minor changes, and Iran retains the right to enrich uranium, then all of this just brings us back to where we started, after wasting resources, weakening the economy, and losing American lives for no strategic gain.

North Korea threatens the US and its allies with annihilation all the time. They launch ballistic missiles over our allies just to show that they can. Why do you think we don’t do anything about it?

 

[Mac9192]

Here’s the truth. We play party politics more than we don’t. I do the same with Trump, but I do question his priorities at times, and flying off the handle with stupid comments. He’s a nightmare with the camera on.

The left though? Party politics is always on full display, especially when their team is in office. Case in point: Biden’s cognitive decline. Everyone right of center knew he had lost too much even before he raised his hand in Jan of 21, and he got worse. It wasn’t until his debate with Trump that his defenders couldn’t defend Joe anymore.

You couldn’t say anything negative about Harris though. If you did, you were branded a racist, misogynistic…. Yet it was apparent she had no clue what was going on.

 

[DuckDevil]

Here’s the truth. We play party politics more than we don’t. I do the same with Trump, but I do question him his priorities at times, and flying off the handle with stupid comments. He’s a nightmare with the camera on.

The left though? Party politics is always on full display, especially when their team is in office. Case in point: Biden’s cognitive decline. Everyone right of center knew he had lost too much even raised his hand in Jan of 21, and he got worse. It wasn’t until his debate with Trump that his defenders couldn’t defend Joe anymore.

You couldn’t say anything negative about Harris though. If you did, you were branded a racist, misogynistic…. Yet it was apparent she had no clue what was going on.

Biden isn’t president anymore, and no one cares. Harris wasn’t elected and is irrelevant to this discussion. Trump has been a disaster on all fronts. Go get gas, buy groceries, try to finance a house, the proof is all around you.

Your guy is the president, he’s responsible now. He’s been in office almost a year and a half, you guys own the mess he’s made and will pay for it in the midterms and beyond. Stop trying to play the greatest hits from the past. Come up with something new. That stuff’s not going to work anymore.

 

[Mac9192]

Biden isn’t president anymore, and no one cares. Harris wasn’t elected and is irrelevant to this discussion. Trump has been a disaster on all fronts. Go get gas, buy groceries, try to finance a house, the proof is all around you.

Your guy is the president, he’s responsible now. He’s been in office almost a year and a half, you guys own the mess he’s made and will pay for it in the midterms and beyond. Stop trying to play the greatest hits from the past. Come up with something new. That stuff’s not going to work anymore.

You’re proving my point. Why? Because during Biden’s time in office, your side spent the first 3.5 years complaining about Trump. You guys finally shut up after the debate.

I am not blaming anything now on Biden. Just making a point. Nor am I defending Trump. But I refuse to blame him for everything. Yes he has some flaws. I did express those.

But your party playing gets in the way now. Your answer to my post proves it. But you’ll probably come back and say you had issues with Biden. But we never saw any of your posts til now.

 

[DuckDevil]

You’re proving my point. Why? Because during Biden’s time in office, your side spent the first 3.5 years complaining about Trump. You guys finally shut up after the debate.

I am not blaming anything now on Biden. Just making a point. Nor am I defending Trump. But I refuse to blame him for everything. Yes he has some flaws. I did express those.

But your party playing gets in the way now. Your answer to my post proves it. But you’ll probably come back and say you had issues with Biden. But we never saw any of your posts til now.

I don’t care about Biden, and I don’t care about Harris. I’m not involved in a cult of personality like MAGA is with Trump. I care about what’s happening now and what’s coming in the future. I care about winning. I care about removing the Democrats in Congress who are weak and replacing them with fighters. I’m tired of the status quo, and I look forward to the primary. Biden and Harris, though she’ll try, aren’t going to have anything to do with that.

If a candidate wants my vote, I don’t want to hear any of this “return to normal” nonsense that Biden pushed and executed with Garland, which led us to this BS. I want accountability and justice. Holding these individuals accountable is the only thing that will protect this nation going forward.

I want people who’ve broken laws to go to jail. I want any financial gains by Trump, his children, his friends, the people who work for him, and any other corrupt individuals in government that were obtained through illegal means to be seized. He’ll pardon everyone before he leaves office, so go after the money. If we learned anything under Biden, it should be that you cannot just turn the other cheek to fascism. You have to root out the corruption and destroy it.

You’re stuck in the past, Mac, and your talking points are outdated. You’re not alone, though. Trump’s doing the same thing. It’s not going to work this time. You’ve got to switch it up. Maybe try attacking worldwide religious leaders instead. Tell people gas prices aren’t really that high, that groceries are actually cheap. Everything is great. I’m sure that’ll work. Just keep playing the greatest hits over and over again.

At some point, you’re going to have to deal with reality instead of pretending everything is fine. People feel it every day, and no amount of lies coming from the White House is going to change that.

 

[Mac9192]

I don’t care about Biden, and I don’t care about Harris. I’m not involved in a cult of personality like MAGA is with Trump. I care about what’s happening now and what’s coming in the future. I care about winning, and I look forward to the primary. Biden and Harris, though she’ll try, aren’t going to have anything to do with that.

If a candidate wants my vote, I don’t want to hear any of this “return to normal” nonsense that Biden pushed and executed, which led us to this BS. I want accountability and justice. I want people who’ve broken laws to go to jail. I want any financial gains by Trump, his children, his friends, the people who work for him, and any other corrupt individuals in government that were obtained through illegal means to be seized. He’ll pardon everyone before he leaves office, so go after the money. Holding these individuals accountable is the only thing that will protect this nation going forward. And that’s just the start.

You’re stuck in the past Mac, and your talking points are outdated. You’re not alone, though. Trump’s doing the same thing. It’s not going to work this time. You’ve got to switch it up. Maybe try attacking worldwide religious leaders instead, tell people gas prices aren’t really that high, that groceries are actually cheap. Everything is great. I’m sure that’ll work. Just keep playing the greatest hits over and over again.

At some point, you’re going to have to deal with reality instead of pretending everything is fine. People feel it every day, and no amount of lies coming from the White House is going to change that.

You obviously like arguing more than reading. Where did I defend Trump?

You say you don’t vote by party line, but I don’t believe you. I do. Not that I think the right is the answer, but more so that I don’t think they stink as bad as the candidate on the left.

 

[DuckDevil]

You obviously like arguing more than reading. Where did I defend Trump?

You say you don’t vote by party line, but I don’t believe you. I do. Not that I think the right is the answer, but more so that I don’t think they stink as bad as the candidate on the left.

Mac, your beliefs and loyalties are well documented in this thread. I’m glad, though, that you may finally be seeing the light with Trump, if that’s what’s actually happening. He’s always been a conman and a liar who only really cares about enriching himself.

Beyond that, people on both sides really want the same things: a fair deal and the ability to pursue the American dream in peace. Trump has brought out the worst of the country on both sides, rewarding division, amplifying anger, and dragging the entire conversation down with him.

The right is going to have to rebuild itself into something new, just like the left is doing now. This cycle of reactionary politics and culture war nonsense has to end if this country is going to survive.

I’m not sure what either party will end up being, but the stain of Trump and his administration is going to ruin the careers of anyone associated with it or who enabled it. I think his actions will lead to a major setback for conservative policies and ideals in the US.

The policies you care about, like immigration, are going to face intense backlash going forward. Trump’s extremism has poisoned the well on these issues, and his administration’s actions have made that unavoidable.

After he’s gone, his executive orders will immediately be reversed, his monuments to himself, like the ballroom and arch, will hopefully be erased, and the country can start to heal once justice is served.

What happens next is on the right. They can keep defending what’s already falling apart, or they can recognize where this is headed and start trying to fix it from the inside, but I won’t hold my breath. The reset is coming either way in 200 days.

 

[Mac9192]

Mac, your beliefs and loyalties are well documented in this thread. I’m glad, though, that you may finally be seeing the light with Trump, if that’s what’s actually happening. He’s always been a conman and a liar who only really cares about enriching himself.

Beyond that, people on both sides really want the same things: a fair deal and the ability to pursue the American dream in peace. Trump has brought out the worst of the country on both sides, rewarding division, amplifying anger, and dragging the entire conversation down with him.

The right is going to have to rebuild itself into something new, just like the left is doing now. This cycle of reactionary politics and culture war nonsense has to end if this country is going to survive.

I’m not sure what either party will end up being, but the stain of Trump and his administration is going to ruin the careers of anyone associated with it or who enabled it. I think his actions will lead to a major setback for conservative policies and ideals in the US.

The policies you care about, like immigration, are going to face intense backlash going forward. Trump’s extremism has poisoned the well on these issues, and his administration’s actions have made that unavoidable.

After he’s gone, his executive orders will immediately be reversed, his monuments to himself, like the ballroom and arch, will hopefully be erased, and the country can start to heal once justice is served.

What happens next is on the right. They can keep defending what’s already falling apart, or they can recognize where this is headed and start trying to fix it from the inside, but I won’t hold my breath. The reset is coming either way in 200 days.

I bet you’re less than 30 years old. Usually, they are the ones that think they have all the amswers, and the other side is evil. I used to be like that.

One thing is for sure. I could retire easily if I bought you for what you’re worth, and sell you for what you think you’re worth.

 

[DuckDevil]

I bet you’re less than 30 years old. Usually, they are the ones that think they have all the amswers, and the other side is evil. I used to be like that.

One thing is for sure. I could retire easily if I bought you for what you’re worth, and sell you for what you think you’re worth.

Cool story. How long did it take you to come up with that one? I’m sure in your brain you think that the outdated message board format appeals to all generations equally.

 

[AcnYoda]

You’re proving my point. Why? Because during Biden’s time in office, your side spent the first 3.5 years complaining about Trump. You guys finally shut up after the debate.

I am not blaming anything now on Biden. Just making a point. Nor am I defending Trump. But I refuse to blame him for everything. Yes he has some flaws. I did express those.

But your party playing gets in the way now. Your answer to my post proves it. But you’ll probably come back and say you had issues with Biden. But we never saw any of your posts til now.

I don’t understand why a simple discussion seems to always become an I hate Trump or I hate this party or that party conversation? Let’s just keep it about policy. As far as I can tell everyone’s policy has been we can’t allow Iran and the IRGC to have a nuclear weapon because they would hold a whole world hostage. If that’s the policy, regardless of party, then I think it’s a good thing if we go in and we make sure that this regime is blown to pieces. I don’t care if they get blown to pieces by Trump or by a democrat. As long as the IRGC never gets a nuclear bomb. Because I personally think they would use it because they’re idiots.

 

[DuckDevil]

Yikes. I hate to think what’s slipping through the cracks with someone like this in charge of the FBI, especially at a time when terror attacks are more likely.

 

[Mac9192]

Yikes. I hate to think what’s slipping through the cracks with someone like this in charge of the FBI, especially at a time when terror attacks are more likely.

If true, it is not good at all.