SEC could target UNC for expansion

[TopCatCal]

https://tarheelswire.usatoday.com/2022/07/01/unc-could-draw-interest-from-sec-realignment/

Like it or not, it looks like we're headed for two 20-team conferences. When the SEC expands again. What 4 teams should they go after? North Carolina seems like a logical school to go after. It would get the SEC into the 9th most populated state in the country. UNC is the state university. And this isn't saying much, but they've got the best football program in their state. The 3 other schools you might want to go after are. Clemson & Florida State, I know the SEC already has a foothold in Florida & South Carolina but you go after Clemson & Florida State to keep the Big 10 from getting them. Then you get either Virginia or Virginia Tech to get the Virginia TV market.

 

[Kerwinwaltonsafro]

The ACC Grant of Rights runs through 2036. Every ACC team signed it. It states that any team who leaves the ACC before 2036 would forfeit all home game revenue and all media revenue through 2036. That would bankrupt any athletic department. So you shouldn't expect any ACC school to go anywhere for at least another decade.

Also, UNC is an AAU school. The B1G only invites AAU schools, which limits their expansion options. So odds are UNC and UVA would be the top targets of the B1G if the ACC ever implodes. The SEC seems more focused on football schools like FSU and Clemson. I'd guess the SEC would settle for NC State if they absolutely had to get a footprint in NC.

 

[Ron Mehico]

UVA and UNC would be the more coveted schools I would think. Flagship universities with good academics in bigger TV markets. I could see the SEC and Big Ten battling for them.

 

[bigsmoothie]

The ACC Grant of Rights runs through 2036. Every ACC team signed it. It states that any team who leaves the ACC before 2036 would forfeit all home game revenue and all media revenue through 2036. That would bankrupt any athletic department. So you shouldn't expect any ACC school to go anywhere for at least another decade.

Also, UNC is an AAU school. The B1G only invites AAU schools, which limits their expansion options. So odds are UNC and UVA would be the top targets of the B1G if the ACC ever implodes. The SEC seems more focused on football schools like FSU and Clemson. I'd guess the SEC would settle for NC State if they absolutely had to get a footprint in NC.

The SEC doesn’t settle. They take what they want.

 

[Kerwinwaltonsafro]

The SEC doesn’t settle. They take what they want.

You're the guy on the other thread claiming he doesn't come here just to argue, right?

You read my entire post and responded with "I want to start a fight with you over the semantics in one sentence of a two paragraph post."

Get some help Ed.

 

[BlueBomb]

You're the guy on the other thread claiming he doesn't come here just to argue, right?

You read my entire post and responded with "I want to start a fight with you over the semantics in one sentence of a two paragraph post."

Get some help Ed.

Word

 

[Kerwinwaltonsafro]

UVA and UNC would be the more coveted schools I would think. Flagship universities with good academics in bigger TV markets. I could see the SEC and Big Ten battling for them.

Top donors in the Ram's Club are currently under the impression that the B1G will win that battle. The inter-conference academic partnerships and research opportunities are much greater in the B1G thanks to all their members being AAU schools. That's going to play a huge role in how the BoG and BoT votes play out, unless the SEC were to come out with a payout that just absolutely dwarfs the B1G media payout per school.

But again, none of this is happening until we are much closer to 2036, so who knows what things will look like 14 years from now. It's crazy we've reached a point where geography no longer plays any role at all in these decisions. The idea that UNC may very well be in a conference with UCLA and Minnesota in 2036 is flat out absurd. But here we are.

 

[bigsmoothie]

You're the guy on the other thread claiming he doesn't come here just to argue, right?

You read my entire post and responded with "I want to start a fight with you over the semantics in one sentence of a two paragraph post."

Get some help Ed.

That’s not an argument. It’s the truth. SEC>All the rest. Period.

 

[wccat]

FSU and UNC makes perfect sense. Duke being left out since it’s all about football makes it even better.

 

[Ron Mehico]

But again, none of this is happening until we are much closer to 2036, so who knows what things will look like 14 years from now. It's crazy we've reached a point where geography no longer plays any role at all in these decisions. The idea that UNC may very well be in a conference with UCLA and Minnesota in 2036 is flat out absurd. But here we are.

If lots of schools in the ACC have the opportunity to be picked up by the SEC/Big Ten in the coming years and making millions more a year I’m sure they’ll find a way to get out of the grant of rights. I’m pretty sure I read something about Texas having some sort of thing against them if they left the Big 12 that didn’t end up mattering. At the end of the day money talks and if waiting 14 years will screw over a bunch of ACC schools (presumably the biggest and richest of them that would be picked up) then they’ll find a way to break it I’m sure.

 

[johnc17]

You're the guy on the other thread claiming he doesn't come here just to argue, right?

You read my entire post and responded with "I want to start a fight with you over the semantics in one sentence of a two paragraph post."

Get some help Ed.

Yeah boiiiiiii

 

[RunninRichie]

https://tarheelswire.usatoday.com/2022/07/01/unc-could-draw-interest-from-sec-realignment/

Like it or not, it looks like we're headed for two 20-team conferences. When the SEC expands again. What 4 teams should they go after? North Carolina seems like a logical school to go after. It would get the SEC into the 9th most populated state in the country. UNC is the state university. And this isn't saying much, but they've got the best football program in their state. The 3 other schools you might want to go after are. Clemson & Florida State, I know the SEC already has a foothold in Florida & South Carolina but you go after Clemson & Florida State to keep the Big 10 from getting them. Then you get either Virginia or Virginia Tech to get the Virginia TV market.

UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson.

 

[Kerwinwaltonsafro]

If lots of schools in the ACC have the opportunity to be picked up by the SEC/Big Ten in the coming years and making millions more a year I’m sure they’ll find a way to get out of the grant of rights. I’m pretty sure I read something about Texas having some sort of thing against them if they left the Big 12 that didn’t end up mattering. At the end of the day money talks and if waiting 14 years will screw over a bunch of ACC schools (presumably the biggest and richest of them that would be picked up) then they’ll find a way to break it I’m sure.

The ACC Grant of Rights isn't getting overturned or broken. Money does talk, and the ironclad GoR makes it financially impossible for an ACC school to leave right now. There is no legal out. And for the ACC to remove the GoR it would take a vote by more schools than the B1G/SEC collectively want.

Texas never had anything remotely close to the ACC GoR in their Big 12 contract. The major issue Texas had was their unwillingness to give up the Longhorn Network.

 

[Kerwinwaltonsafro]

FSU and UNC makes perfect sense. Duke being left out since it’s all about football makes it even better.

While I agree that dook is unlikely to get an invitation due to them being a small private school with a small alumni base and a weak football program; there is still a tiny chance the B1G would offer them due to their academics and bc of the UNC/dook rivalry (as a way to further entice UNC to the B1G.) I wouldn't bet on it personally, but it's been talked about.

That's really the only chance UNC and dook could remain conference rivals and continue the 2+ games a year that continue to put up monster television ratings.

 

[Bluesnky]

The ACC Grant of Rights isn't getting overturned or broken. Money does talk, and the ironclad GoR makes it financially impossible for an ACC school to leave right now. There is no legal out. And for the ACC to remove the GoR it would take a vote by more schools than the B1G/SEC collectively want.

Texas never had anything remotely close to the ACC GoR in their Big 12 contract. The major issue Texas had was their unwillingness to give up the Longhorn Network.

It made it financially impossible at the time but I’m not so sure that’s the case at this point. The annual payout for the first tier package containing the best SEC game each week is worth more than the ACC’s entire annual television rights.

 

[Kerwinwaltonsafro]

If I had to guess right now I'd say UNC, UVA, and GT all to the B1G since they are AAU schools.

FSU and Clemson to the SEC.


And then you're kind of left with a bunch of ACC schools who may not increase the overall media payout to make it worthwhile to divide the pot amongst more teams. Yes VT and NC State technically get the SEC into the "footprint" of those states, but streaming has made the "cable footprint" far less valuable than it was even 10 years ago. People in North Carolina already have easy access to watch any SEC game we want. So you're not really adding the whole state of North Carolina just by adding a program in North Carolina... You're just adding the fans of the specific program. As a result of the whole "footprint" value dropping off due to streaming, most of the ACC schools are no longer very valuable expansion additions.

 

[Kerwinwaltonsafro]

It made it financially impossible at the time but I’m not so sure that’s the case at this point. The annual payout for the first tier package containing the best SEC game each week is worth more than the ACC’s entire annual television rights.

If an ACC team left for the SEC tomorrow, they would forfeit all their new SEC media money through 2036 back to the ACC. They would also forfeit all home game revenue through 2036. That's how the GoR works. That's why no one is leaving anytime soon.

 

[Bluesnky]

If I had to guess right now I'd say UNC, UVA, and GT all to the B1G since they are AAU schools.

FSU and Clemson to the SEC.


And then you're kind of left with a bunch of ACC schools who may not increase the overall media payout to make it worthwhile to divide the pot amongst more teams. Yes VT and NC State technically get the SEC into the "footprint" of those states, but streaming has made the "cable footprint" far less valuable than it was even 10 years ago. People in North Carolina already have easy access to watch any SEC game we want. So you're not really adding the whole state of North Carolina just by adding a program in North Carolina... You're just adding the fans of the specific program. As a result of the whole "footprint" value dropping off due to streaming, most of the ACC schools are no longer very valuable expansion additions.

Yeah I mean I think the Big Ten has major regrets over adding Maryland and Rutgers. Those were plays for the Big Ten Network to get into a bunch of Sat/Cable bundles in New York and Baltimore/D.C., but the whole business has changed since then.

Also, I don’t think AAU status is going to save some of these ACC schools. It has to make financial sense first, and that only happens if their games draw eyeballs. Only UNC’s brand may be big enough to overcome the fact that it’s football program isn’t a big draw nationally.

 

[MdWIldcat55]

If I had to guess right now I'd say UNC, UVA, and GT all to the B1G since they are AAU schools.

FSU and Clemson to the SEC.


And then you're kind of left with a bunch of ACC schools who may not increase the overall media payout to make it worthwhile to divide the pot amongst more teams. Yes VT and NC State technically get the SEC into the "footprint" of those states, but streaming has made the "cable footprint" far less valuable than it was even 10 years ago. People in North Carolina already have easy access to watch any SEC game we want. So you're not really adding the whole state of North Carolina just by adding a program in North Carolina... You're just adding the fans of the specific program. As a result of the whole "footprint" value dropping off due to streaming, most of the ACC schools are no longer very valuable expansion additions.

LOL. You and your phony baloney about being an AAU school.

What part of UNC CHEATED FOR 20 YEARS, SETTING UP A TOTALLY FAKE DEPARTMENT TO ISSUE FRAUDULENT GRADES TO KEEP ATHLETES ELIGIBLE is in the handbook for academic excellence? What part of refusing to administer punishment to the athletic programs, thus establishing fake grades as within the honor system of the university screams "academic elite? UNC PUT RASHAD MCCANTS ON THE DEAN'S LIST - AND HE ADMITTED HE NEVER ATTENDED A SINGLE CLASS OR WROTE ONE PAPER. That's all anyone will ever have to know about the academic standards on Chapel Hill.

North Carolina would CRAWL to get into the SEC because otherwise it gets left behind with the dregs of the ACC.

 

[Bluesnky]

If an ACC team left for the SEC tomorrow, they would forfeit all their new SEC media money through 2036 back to the ACC. They would also forfeit all home game revenue through 2036. That's how the GoR works. That's why no one is leaving anytime soon.

I don’t think that’s correct. What would happen is the rights to broadcast their home games would remain tied to the ACC contract, and as a non-member they would no longer get an ACC payout. The new conference would not be able to market the media rights to the home game of the new member.

The ACC would not be entitled to the school’s SEC payout in any way.

 

[sk73]

2 conferences with as many as 28 teams in each. It will take some time but I fully expect to see Clemson, NC ST., Fl. St., WV, V. Tech, UL, and Ok. St. in the SEC. Schools like Duke, UNC and Ga. Tech are geographically in the mix but geography seems to be of less importance than I thought it would be. Everyone has an opinion, and this is mine until I change it.

 

[bradscats]

Notre Dame will be the one that causes the whole system to fall apart. At some point, they are going to enter the SEC or Big 10. When they do, the schools in the ACC will have an argument that their situation under the grant of rights has changed and will have a chance legally to get out from under that. Once the ACC is free, it will be open season on those schools.

 

[Wildcats1st]

While I agree that dook is unlikely to get an invitation due to them being a small private school with a small alumni base and a weak football program; there is still a tiny chance the B1G would offer them due to their academics and bc of the UNC/dook rivalry (as a way to further entice UNC to the B1G.) I wouldn't bet on it personally, but it's been talked about.

That's really the only chance UNC and dook could remain conference rivals and continue the 2+ games a year that continue to put up monster television ratings.

The powers to be don’t care about basketball. I don’t know why you keep going there. You might care about that rivalry in bb but the realignment is all about $$$$ not a basketball rivalry

 

[Ron Mehico]

The ACC Grant of Rights isn't getting overturned or broken. Money does talk, and the ironclad GoR makes it financially impossible for an ACC school to leave right now. There is no legal out. And for the ACC to remove the GoR it would take a vote by more schools than the B1G/SEC collectively want.

Texas never had anything remotely close to the ACC GoR in their Big 12 contract. The major issue Texas had was their unwillingness to give up the Longhorn Network.

I’m assuming the ACC GofR is something created by the member institutions, somewhat comparable to the NCAA? If that’s the case and UNC, UVA, Virginia Tech, NC State, FSU, and Clemson are offered 8 figures more a year annually in the next two years which would cause them to forfeit over 9 figures more in the next 10-12 years than it will get done. The only challenge would be from the schools not invited and Wake Forest and WVU trying to sue those schools and litigate against those schools in addition to the inviting conference who would litigate because it would benefit them as well is naive. I’m sure you can think of examples of laws or contracts being broken by powerful people .

It’s similar in a way to the way UNC was able to get out of one of the most egregious academic scandals in the history of our sport, with previous student athletes publicly admitting to the rules violations. They litigated, litigated, litigated to the pint the NCAA just basically rolled over, as I’m sure the ACC would do.

 

[Wildcats1st]

2 conferences with as many as 28 teams in each. It will take some time but I fully expect to see Clemson, NC ST., Fl. St., WV, V. Tech, UL, and Ok. St. in the SEC. Schools like Duke, UNC and Ga. Tech are geographically in the mix but geography seems to be of less importance than I thought it would be. Everyone has an opinion, and this is mine until I change it.

I think you can forget UL in the sec or Miami or Memphis. Those city schools are tainted and the sec doesn’t want them

 

[TigerMoving]

It will be interesting to see how UNC does in a conference where they are not playing puppet master. They will probably be fine but a big adjustment for them.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

SEC eats first.





in football

 

[serdi]

LOL. You and your phony baloney about being an AAU school.

What part of UNC CHEATED FOR 20 YEARS, SETTING UP A TOTALLY FAKE DEPARTMENT TO ISSUE FRAUDULENT GRADES TO KEEP ATHLETES ELIGIBLE is in the handbook for academic excellence? What part of refusing to administer punishment to the athletic programs, thus establishing fake grades as within the honor system of the university screams "academic elite? UNC PUT RASHAD MCCANTS ON THE DEAN'S LIST - AND HE ADMITTED HE NEVER ATTENDED A SINGLE CLASS OR WROTE ONE PAPER. That's all anyone will ever have to know about the academic standards on Chapel Hill.

North Carolina would CRAWL to get into the SEC because otherwise it gets left behind with the dregs of the ACC.

Well played. You said it all. Condescending, aloof, elitist, arrogant frauds and cheats. Don’t want them in the SEC

 

[BBallin23]

If an ACC team left for the SEC tomorrow, they would forfeit all their new SEC media money through 2036 back to the ACC. They would also forfeit all home game revenue through 2036. That's how the GoR works. That's why no one is leaving anytime soon.

BS there’s always a way out.

 

[Wunky]

Kerwin I generally don’t find you overly nauseating for a Heels fan, but acting like UNC has academic standards (LMAO) is a little much for this board to take. It isn’t just McCants and the other players... it’s the ordinary students that got to take fake classes. UNC should have either lost banners, or lost their accreditation. The fact they got to keep both is utter nonsense and you know it.

 

[JonathanW_rivals]

If I had to guess right now I'd say UNC, UVA, and GT all to the B1G since they are AAU schools.

FSU and Clemson to the SEC.


And then you're kind of left with a bunch of ACC schools who may not increase the overall media payout to make it worthwhile to divide the pot amongst more teams. Yes VT and NC State technically get the SEC into the "footprint" of those states, but streaming has made the "cable footprint" far less valuable than it was even 10 years ago. People in North Carolina already have easy access to watch any SEC game we want. So you're not really adding the whole state of North Carolina just by adding a program in North Carolina... You're just adding the fans of the specific program. As a result of the whole "footprint" value dropping off due to streaming, most of the ACC schools are no longer very valuable expansion additions.

You are talking like NC St is in a small market. Wake County (Raleigh +) has taken over Mecklenberg county (Charlotte) as the most populated county in NC. NC St is also right there with UNC in football. Obviously not in basketball.

 

[Kerwinwaltonsafro]

I don’t think that’s correct. What would happen is the rights to broadcast their home games would remain tied to the ACC contract, and as a non-member they would no longer get an ACC payout. The new conference would not be able to market the media rights to the home game of the new member.

The ACC would not be entitled to the school’s SEC payout in any way.

You are 100% wrong.

What I explained to you was the reality of the ACC GoR.

 

[Kerwinwaltonsafro]

The powers to be don’t care about basketball. I don’t know why you keep going there. You might care about that rivalry in bb but the realignment is all about $$$$ not a basketball rivalry

They care about adding UNC, and that gives UNC leverage. If UNC was to tell the B1G they want dook as an expansion partner, or they will go to the SEC, the B1G may very well agree.

But again, nothing is happening for at least a decade.

 

[Kerwinwaltonsafro]

You are talking like NC St is in a small market. Wake County (Raleigh +) has taken over Mecklenberg county (Charlotte) as the most populated county in NC. NC St is also right there with UNC in football. Obviously not in basketball.

You're talking like cable footprints are still a dominant force in realignment. Streaming changed that. Everyone in Raleigh already has access to SEC games. The SEC doesn't need to add NC State to get into that market.

 

[bucsrule8872]

With the GoR in place, the ACC schools might be left out. The Big 10 and SEC may go with the path of least resistance and expand west.

 

[Kerwinwaltonsafro]

With the GoR in place, the ACC schools might be left out. The Big 10 and SEC may go path or least resistance and expand west.

Or they may analyze those options and realize that splitting the media deal 16 ways is more profitable per school than splitting the deal 20 ways, and choose to stand pat for the next decade or so.

Adding programs that don't significantly increase the overall media deal isn't the smart play. It's why you see the same schools getting ignored every time a new expansion happens. And especially now that streaming is killing the value of the "cable footprint model" it has made the target group for expansion even smaller.

They want football powers. They want big public flagship universities. They want schools with huge alumni bases that will stream their content in large numbers. And, in the case of the B1G, they want AAU schools that will bolster their inter-conference academic endeavors.


My guess is they would rather take their time making $100 million per school per year, and wait out the ACC GoR. Instead of rushing to add some schools that will just be leaching money off the total pot. Now that OU, TX, UCLA, and USC are taken; there really aren't a lot of good options left in the west.

 

[billCgmx]

Here is my prediction when it comes to expansion and the two super conferences.

The TV networks, the big universities and the players will make out like bandits while the smaller schools and fans will suffer.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Or they may analyze those options and realize that splitting the media deal 16 ways is more profitable per school than splitting the deal 20 ways, and choose to stand pat for the next decade or so.

Adding programs that don't significantly increase the overall media deal isn't the smart play. It's why you see the same schools getting ignored every time a new expansion happens. And especially now that streaming is killing the value of the "cable footprint model" it has made the target group for expansion even smaller.

They want football powers. They want big public flagship universities. They want schools with huge alumni bases that will stream their content in large numbers. And, in the case of the B1G, they want AAU schools that will bolster their inter-conference academic endeavors.


My guess is they would rather take their time making $100 million per school per year, and wait out the ACC GoR. Instead of rushing to add some schools that will just be leaching money off the total pot. Now that OU, TX, UCLA, and USC are taken; there really aren't a lot of good options left in the west.

Possibly.

But there are some big names still on the board out West. Namely Oregon. With the Nike backing and being an AAU school. They should be the next big target.

Media markets still matter as well. Streaming helps big names like UNC, that are a national brand, but people in the Bay Area are still tuning in to watch Cal and Stanford because they went to school there or their kids go to school there or just because they live close to the school. Streaming hasn’t changed who people root for just yet. People still usually pull for the home team. So a market like the Bay Area is still huge to get into. So adding Stanford and Cal Berkeley now might be better than adding UNC later. And academically, both Stanford and Berkeley are head and shoulders above UNC.

And who says the expansion ends with 20?

Each league will analyze the data and decide what they want to do. The SEC might decide a 16 way split between premiere programs is better than a 20 way split with adding weaker programs. I made that point earlier, I thought.

Bottom line, UNC is in good shape, but they don’t hold all the cards. The GoR limits them more than other schools. They probably will want to get out of that ASAP. It helps Duke and Wake, but it has handcuffed UNC to the ACC. They might want off that sinking ship. I’d say they will jump ship in 2036. Probably for the Big 10, so they can try to continue the illusion of being a prestigious university. Same for UVA, but they actually are a top notch school.

Of course, like I said, westward expansion might be the smarter move than waiting on UNC or UVA. The Big 10 and SEC might not want them by 2036. They may be at the sweet spot when it comes to adding teams. A lot can happen in the next decade or so.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Also, I am so glad UK is in the SEC already and we don’t have to worry about expansion. We are already part of one of the mega conferences.

 

[Cawood86_rivals]

UVA and UNC would be the more coveted schools I would think. Flagship universities with good academics in bigger TV markets. I could see the SEC and Big Ten battling for them.

Good academics? UNC?