Assistant Coaches matter far more than you think. Your with them more and they do the development work--it's a credit to Cal that he had a great Assistant/Staff. It's the HC who deserves/gets credit and blame but often the staff is just as if not more responsible for outcomes/development, etc....
Payne leaving as a well known player development guy may have effected things but I agree that UK was never in the position they assumed. Thing that reflects that is how Travis Graf mentioned that Banchero's camp is tight lipped but yet UK media guys and National guys were sticking with his visit/post visit excitement.
Wiggins was a lean to UK at one point but the All Star Circuit decided things for him--Adidas got him with signing bonus, delivered him to Kansas as part of the deal. Things worked out just fine after missing him.
I never heard a single word of UK being in lead spot for Zion Williamson. That recruitment is separate from Banchero who UK was in a great spot early on but media kept running with it and the reclassification angle.
UK can be just fine if they don't panic. The thing to do is land the best class/players you can, not worry about position reaching like they did with Montgomery back in '18.
On your last paragraph, I think You are somewhat accurate, but also wrong.
Yeah, you have to get the best players you can, but you also have to have a balanced team. You can't just throw a bunch of small forwards out there and hope you're going to win. Balance is extremely important.
So, we have seen this happen several times since K started taking our lunch at the recruiting table. We take what's left, Cal gets credit for getting a top 2 class, they struggle, fall short in the tournament, because we're too young, 1 player short and the pieces don't fit right. Then most leave, because they have potential.
This is a dangerous recruiting game. It's roulette. If you throw your hat into this one and done game and you come up short, as we have so far for 21/22, you risk getting left with a flawed team and that’s what our 21/22 squad looks to be.
Hopefully Cal can get some great transfers, but again, he's having to take transfers because his #1 targets went elsewhere, so he has holes to plug. That’s basically flying by the seat of your pants. Cal has been bailed out a few times when he grabbed a late recruit or transfer and hopefully he gets lucky again this year (Sarr), but what if Sarr never becomes available to him? Our 20/21 team would have been a doughnut. The pieces have to fit.
Lastly, that 2019 Duke team was as loaded as any team I have seen in the modern era, but they lost in the E8 to a team that was properly built with veteran players. Duke was great, but they were flawed. They had 3 small forwards and a pg. They still should have won, but their youth reared its ugly head and they panicked.