2 more years ..

[Ewooc]

I would love to see what "analytical thing" you think supports your notion if a coach doesn't win big by year three, it will never happen.

These guys all took at least 4 years to get to 9 wins at their schools:
Frank Beemer @VT 9 years
Johnny Majors @Texas 7 years
Bobby Bowden @WVU 6 years
Mack Brown @UNC 5 years
Nick Saban @ MSU 5 years
Bill Snyder @KSU 5 years
Jim Harbaugh @Stanford 4 years
Bo Schembechler @Miami 4 years

And for the Hawkeye lovers out there:
Hayden Fry @ Iowa 5 years
Kirk Farentz @ Iowa 5 years

Which one of those won a NC at those colleges? None that I can see. I think you are missing the point I am making, in fact based on this I know you are. The data says that if a coach does not win at least a div title by year 3 the odds for them to ever win a NC with that school drop to almost 0. The coaches you have list while some did eventually go on to win a NC it was not with the school you have listed.
For example if Frost fails to win his division this year data suggests he will not go on and win a NC while here. That does not say he won't go on and coach Florida and win one there.
Im not saying anything about how long it should take to get to 8 or 9 wins. The reason I brought up 8 or 9 wins as important and critical is because if we can get to that number it at least gives us a shot to win our division. Anything less than that and we have zero shot for the division.

 

[jlb321_rivals110621]

If SF had taken the fla job, he'd likely meet some goal post shifting requirements.
Thing is, he's gotten praise from the right people, but fans either don't have a clue or are in denial, of just how far we'd sunk, yet still only lose last minute to iowa, home and away.

Speculating on the negative is just dumb, and that one winning season wipes it all out, but some of us are getting tired of having to stand in the boat, ankle deep in pee from those lil whiner dogs pittle.

there's that all too familiar rally cry ... "We almost beat Iowa"

 

[Headcard]

Which one of those won a NC at those colleges? None that I can see. I think you are missing the point I am making, in fact based on this I know you are. The data says that if a coach does not win at least a conf title by year 3 the odds for them to ever win a NC with that school drop to almost 0. The coaches you have list while some did eventually go on to win a NC it was not with the school you have listed.
For example if Frost fails to win his division this year data suggests he will not go on and win a NC while here. That does not say he won't go on and coach Florida and win one there.
Im not saying anything about how long it should take to get to 8 or 9 wins. The reason I brought up 8 or 9 wins is because if we can get to that number it at least gives us a shot to win our division. Anything less than that and we have zero shot for the division.

I will post it for you again.

These guys all took at least 4 years to win 9-games and then went on to win National Championship(s) at their schools :
Bill McCartney @ Colorado 8 years
Don James @ Washington 5 years
Lavell Edwards @ BYU 5 years
Biggie Munn @ MSU 5 years
Woody Hays @ OSU 4 years
Bear Bryant @ Alabama 4 years
Johnny Majors @ Pitt 4 years
Danny Ford @ Clemson 4 years
Bobby Ross @ GT 4 years

And for the Hawkeye lovers, who believe they won a title in 1958:
Forrest Evashevski @ Iowa 5 years

But go on and tell us more about what the "data" says...............

 

[Ewooc]

I will post it for you again.

These guys all took at least 4 years to win 9-games and then went on to win National Championship(s) at their schools :
Bill McCartney @ Colorado 8 years
Don James @ Washington 5 years
Lavell Edwards @ BYU 5 years
Biggie Munn @ MSU 5 years
Woody Hays @ OSU 4 years
Bear Bryant @ Alabama 4 years
Johnny Majors @ Pitt 4 years
Danny Ford @ Clemson 4 years
Bobby Ross @ GT 4 years

And for the Hawkeye lovers, who believe they won a title in 1958:
Forrest Evashevski @ Iowa 5 years

But go on and tell us more about what the "data" says...............

You are hung up on the 9 number. 9 isn't as important as at least winning your division. If you can win you division with 7 or 8 great. Data still holds. I only brought up 9 as a base line to win the division I think now day it will probably take 9 to win the division especially in the BIG.
Bill McCartney @ Colorado 8 years- Yes
Don James @ Washington 5 years- Won their conf year 3
Lavell Edwards @ BYU 5 years -Won their conf year 3
Biggie Munn @ MSU 5 years Michigan St was IND not part of a conf.
Woody Hays @ OSU 4 years-Yes
Bear Bryant @ Alabama 4 years- Yes
Johnny Majors @ Pitt 4 years- Pitt was IND not part of a conf
Danny Ford @ Clemson 4 years- Went 12-0 and NC year 3
Bobby Ross @ GT 4 years- Yes

So of the last 100 years or so of football you could come up with 4 that go against what Im saying. I believe only 2 of the last 50 years.

 

[SeaOfRed75]

Bill McCartney @ Colorado 8 years- Yes
Don James @ Washington 5 years- Won their conf year 3
Lavell Edwards @ BYU 5 years -Won their conf year 3
Biggie Munn @ MSU 5 years Michigan St was IND not part of a conf.
Woody Hays @ OSU 4 years-Yes
Bear Bryant @ Alabama 4 years- Yes
Johnny Majors @ Pitt 4 years-
Danny Ford @ Clemson 4 years- Went 12-0 and NC year 3
Bobby Ross @ GT 4 years- Yes

So of the last 100 years or so of football you could come up with 4 that go against what Im saying. I believe only 2 of the last 50 years.

Well yeah. Only 1 f-ing team wins a MNC a year so.........................

 

[Headcard]

You are hung up on the 9 number. 9 isn't as important as at least winning your division. If you can win you division with 7 or 8 great. Data still holds. I only brought up 9 as a base line to win the division I think now day it will probably take 9 to win the division especially in the BIG.
Bill McCartney @ Colorado 8 years- Yes
Don James @ Washington 5 years- Won their conf year 3
Lavell Edwards @ BYU 5 years -Won their conf year 3
Biggie Munn @ MSU 5 years Michigan St was IND not part of a conf.
Woody Hays @ OSU 4 years-Yes
Bear Bryant @ Alabama 4 years- Yes
Johnny Majors @ Pitt 4 years- Pitt was IND not part of a conf
Danny Ford @ Clemson 4 years- Went 12-0 and NC year 3
Bobby Ross @ GT 4 years- Yes

So of the last 100 years or so of football you could come up with 4 that go against what Im saying. I believe only 2 of the last 50 years.

It's not 100 years, those guys are all from the last 60 years. You can take Ford off the list, didn't catch year one was a single game as an interim, the rest still hold true. So 8 coaches that have won a combined 18 national Championship, fit the bill. No instant success for any of them, took at least 4 years to even win 9 games, then in many cases, took longer to sustain success or get to the top. Your "data" in a complete noting burger.

 

[Ewooc]

Well yeah. Only 1 f-ing team wins a MNC a year so.........................

4 coaches of the last 100 years. Which basically mean approx 90%( being conservatively low.) of the coach that won a NC have wont at least their division by year 3.

 

[Ewooc]

It's not 100 years, those guys are all from the last 60 years. You can take Ford off the list, didn't catch year one was a single game as an interim, the rest still hold true. So 8 coaches that have won a combined 18 national Championship, fit the bill. No instant success for any of them, took at least 4 years to even win 9 games, then in many cases, took longer to sustain success or get to the top. Your "data" in a complete noting burger.

4 fit the bill the rest do not. Sorry man Im trying to be patient with ya. Maybe my teaching/ explanation ability's aren't up to par. You just aren't getting it. Again the data suggests that if a coach does not win at least their division by year 3 they will not go on to win a NC with that same school. Yes they could do it with another school. Getting 9 wins doesn't matter and does not factor in. doing it as an IND doesn't count as there is no division or conf to win. So of this list you provided only 4 coach disprove those qualifications I listed above.

 

[Headcard]

4 fit the bill the rest do not. Sorry man Im trying to be patient with ya. Maybe my teaching/ explanation ability's aren't up to par. You just aren't getting it. Again the data suggests that if a coach does not win at least their division by year 3 they will not go on to win a NC with that same school. Yes they could do it with another school. Getting 9 wins doesn't matter and does not factor in. doing it as an IND doesn't count as there is no division or conf to win. So of this list you provided only 4 coach disprove those qualifications I listed above.

No you are trying to change your little narrative to paint a different picture, after being proven wrong, yet again. You said earlier a coach has to have "some success" by year three and suggested we needed to win 8 or 9 or else, it was all over. After proven wrong, you decided to shift your narrative to winning a conference championship in year three and even decided to discredit the National Championship coaches from Independents, that also took more than 3 years to reach the milestone. Sorry, you have no data and I have given you a very comprehensive list that shows it. If you want to believe a fair tale instead of facts, go ahead.

 

[Headcard]

4 coaches of the last 100 years. Which basically mean approx 90%( being conservatively low.) of the coach that won a NC have wont at least their division by year 3.

It's not 100 years, it's 60. It's not 4 coaches, it's 8. And 2 of the greatest CFB coaches of all time, who combined for 11 National Championships. But don't let any of these facts keep you from sharpening that pitchfork.

 

[Nebraska_Reality]

I would love to see what "analytical thing" you think supports your notion if a coach doesn't win big by year three, it will never happen.

These guys all took at least 4 years to get to 9 wins at their schools:
Frank Beemer @VT 9 years
Johnny Majors @Texas 7 years
Bobby Bowden @WVU 6 years
Mack Brown @UNC 5 years
Nick Saban @ MSU 5 years
Bill Snyder @KSU 5 years
Jim Harbaugh @Stanford 4 years
Bo Schembechler @Miami 4 years

And for the Hawkeye lovers out there:
Hayden Fry @ Iowa 5 years
Kirk Farentz @ Iowa 5 years

You make a decent point.....but by putting him on this list, you're kind of implying that what Snyder inherited at K-State and what Frost inherited at Nebraska is comparable....when they're not.

And..never mind 9 wins for a moment....Snyder did have a winning season in Year 3....at a program that was is far worse shape than what Nebraska was in when Frost got here. Now, I understand that the Big 8 in 1991 and the B1G now are different beasts....but I am of the mindset that the person you bring in should have a better record after 3 years than the guy you just canned.

If you're an employee in a company, and you are delivering less results after 3 years than the person they fired before hiring you (and he/she had worked there for 3 years), should you for sure still have a job?

 

[Headcard]

You make a decent point.....but by putting him on this list, you're kind of implying that what Snyder inherited at K-State and what Frost inherited at Nebraska is comparable....when they're not.

And..never mind 9 wins for a moment....Snyder did have a winning season in Year 3....at a program that was is far worse shape than what Nebraska was in when Frost got here. Now, I understand that the Big 8 in 1991 and the B1G now are different beasts....but I am of the mindset that the person you bring in should have a better record after 3 years than the guy you just canned.

If you're an employee in a company, and you are delivering less results after 3 years than the person they fired before hiring you (and he/she had worked there for 3 years), should you for sure still have a job?

All those situations are different, Snyder’s turnaround at KSU was amazing, but did not happen over night. That list is full of great coaches. Heck look at my other list which includes guys like Woody Hays and Bear Bryant. Point was, it’s not unusual for a turnaround to take a while.

I think the comparison with Riley, is kind of like what you pointed out with Snyder. Simply comparing the three year record of the two, while not acknowledging the difference in the situations each stepped into, doesn’t tell the whole story. Riley turned a 9 win program into a losing program. Frost has been unable to turn a losing program around. I have not been happy with the results Frost has delivered yet, but I do think some are way over reacting and flying off the handle, too soon.

 

[hedonistimpulse]

You make a decent point.....but by putting him on this list, you're kind of implying that what Snyder inherited at K-State and what Frost inherited at Nebraska is comparable....when they're not.

And..never mind 9 wins for a moment....Snyder did have a winning season in Year 3....at a program that was is far worse shape than what Nebraska was in when Frost got here. Now, I understand that the Big 8 in 1991 and the B1G now are different beasts....but I am of the mindset that the person you bring in should have a better record after 3 years than the guy you just canned.

If you're an employee in a company, and you are delivering less results after 3 years than the person they fired before hiring you (and he/she had worked there for 3 years), should you for sure still have a job?

Snyder then had a losing season in year 4. The people who like to point out how K-State got it figured out in year 3 always forget that part.

They probably also forget that Dabo Swinney went 6-7 in year 3 at a program that hadn't had a losing season in 11 years, too.

And for Swinney, yes, it was technically year 2.75 and he did win his division in year 2, but his team took a massive step back in year 3. Then if you consider the continuity factor because Swinney was on the previous staff, it would make that pretty concerning if you looked ar 6-7 in year 3 in a vacuum....and before anyone says, "But then he hired Brent Venables," remember who Venables replaced (Kevin Steele).

The ENTIRE coaching staff is in year 3 at Nebraska...at most. The offensive scheme is also in year 3. The defensive scheme is in year 4. It's a total reboot. Nebraska is still a brand, but you can't minimize the scope of the rebuild because Mike Riley had a 9-win season.

How about we focus on 1999, that's 21 years, that's the last time Nebraska won a legitimate trophy - how significant is a rebuild when guys have failed for 21 consecutive years?

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

there's that all too familiar rally cry ... "We almost beat Iowa"

Purely pitiul, so quit rallyin around it yourself.
You love our losses, the majority of your existence on the board is whining about losses, throwing out fake expectations etc.
Whats sad is, you spend all your money making those gifs so you can rally your talk about us losing.
You're not the star you think you are

 

[jlb321_rivals110621]

Purely pitiul, so quit rallyin around it yourself.
You love our losses, the majority of your existence on the board is whining about losses, throwing out fake expectations etc.
Whats sad is, you spend all your money making those gifs so you can rally your talk about us losing.
You're not the star you think you are

RollingLaugh yes I'm nearly broke because of all the money I spend making gifs

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

RollingLaugh yes I'm nearly broke because of all the money I spend making gifs

Yea, they suck too, but keep spending, I expect you'll have great success, after all, youve been whining for quite awhile now, so we're all expecting it.

 

[jlb321_rivals110621]

Yea, they suck too, but keep spending, I expect you'll have great success, after all, youve been whining for quite awhile now, so we're all expecting it.

just out of curiosity. .. how much time and money do you think I spent on the above gif??
Assume I have already purchased all the gif making supplies and equipment

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

just out of curiosity. .. how much time and money do you think I spent on the above gif??
Assume I have already purchased all the gif making supplies and equipment

Well, the plastic surgery to look like the real star, after that, not much.

Look, you wanna cry and keep saying he better,instead of he should, nows the time, but expecting alot more before shows you're spending too much on whining, than understanding,expecting instead of having patience.
No ones happy, least of all this staff, theyve fallen off their summit, the one they created,and earned, than your expectations. They've said they'd be good far far far less than youre whining about it.

If you want to put lil buttercups in gifs, don't leave the impression you're starring in them.

 

[Nebraska_Reality]

Snyder then had a losing season in year 4. The people who like to point out how K-State got it figured out in year 3 always forget that part.

They probably also forget that Dabo Swinney went 6-7 in year 3 at a program that hadn't had a losing season in 11 years, too.

And for Swinney, yes, it was technically year 2.75 and he did win his division in year 2, but his team took a massive step back in year 3. Then if you consider the continuity factor because Swinney was on the previous staff, it would make that pretty concerning if you looked ar 6-7 in year 3 in a vacuum....and before anyone says, "But then he hired Brent Venables," remember who Venables replaced (Kevin Steele).

The ENTIRE coaching staff is in year 3 at Nebraska...at most. The offensive scheme is also in year 3. The defensive scheme is in year 4. It's a total reboot. Nebraska is still a brand, but you can't minimize the scope of the rebuild because Mike Riley had a 9-win season.

How about we focus on 1999, that's 21 years, that's the last time Nebraska won a legitimate trophy - how significant is a rebuild when guys have failed for 21 consecutive years?

"Snyder then had a losing season in year 4. The people who like to point out how K-State got it figured out in year 3 always forget that part."

No I didn't forget that....but, again, we're talking about K-State...a program in far worse shape than Nebarska has ever been in (at least not since the late 1950s, anyways).

Now, you can focus on 1999 if you want....but I don't view the Solich (58-19) and Pelini (67-27) eras as "failing". Heck....Callahan even had an over .500 record (not saying he shouldn't have been fired, mind you).

Sorry...but I don't buy that all of Frost's problems, or his 2 losing seasons, are simply because of 2 of the 3 previous seasons not being good....and I sure as hell don't blame Pelini, Callahan, or Solich for them, either.

 

[Nebraska_Reality]

All those situations are different, Snyder’s turnaround at KSU was amazing, but did not happen over night. That list is full of great coaches. Heck look at my other list which includes guys like Woody Hays and Bear Bryant. Point was, it’s not unusual for a turnaround to take a while.

I think the comparison with Riley, is kind of like what you pointed out with Snyder. Simply comparing the three year record of the two, while not acknowledging the difference in the situations each stepped into, doesn’t tell the whole story. Riley turned a 9 win program into a losing program. Frost has been unable to turn a losing program around. I have not been happy with the results Frost has delivered yet, but I do think some are way over reacting and flying off the handle, too soon.

Woody Hayes was 26-9-2 in his first 4 seasons at Ohio State. Bear was 31-7-5 in his first 4 seasons at Alabama.

I think we're just going to have to disagree....I just don't buy the notion that 2 losing seasons under Riley excuses (potentially) 3 (or more) losing seasons under Frost.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

Woody Hayes was 26-9-2 in his first 4 seasons at Ohio State. Bear was 31-7-5 in his first 4 seasons at Alabama.

I think we're just going to have to disagree....I just don't buy the notion that 2 losing seasons under Riley excuses (potentially) 3 (or more) losing seasons under Frost.

Potentially three, there you go, you loser.
Fits you, and you say you're a Husker fan? Go back to your team,stay off here.

 

[hedonistimpulse]

"Snyder then had a losing season in year 4. The people who like to point out how K-State got it figured out in year 3 always forget that part."

No, I didn't forget that....but, again, we're talking about K-State...a program in far worse shape than Nebraska has ever been in (at least not since the late 1950s, anyway).

Now, you can focus on 1999 if you want....but I don't view the Solich (58-19) and Pelini (67-27) eras as "failing". Heck...Callahan even had an over .500 record (not saying he shouldn't have been fired, mind you).

Sorry...but I don't buy that all of Frost's problems, or his 2 losing seasons, is simply because of 2 of the 3 previous seasons not being good....and I sure as hell don't blame Pelini, Callahan, or Solich for them, either.

The Solich era is the only era that won a conference championship and/or had a Top 10 season according to the AP/Coaches Polls, so lumping that era with Callahan, Pelini, Riley, or Frost is misapplying numbers without understanding them.

That being said, Devaney and Osborne led the Huskers to a Top 10 finish in one of the two major polls 28 times in 37 years. That's the standard at the University of Nebraska.

Nebraska hasn't finished ranked in the Top 10 in the last 16 years.

If Frost loses every game of substance like Pelini, that's below the standard. If he finishes just above .500 like Callahan, that's below the standard. If Frost has a 7-win season like Snyder in year 3 and then doesn't make a bowl game in year 4 or a 9-win season like Riley and then a 4-win year following that, it's well below the standard and would be viewed as cataclysmic by Nebraska fans. 9-15 is also below the standard, but understanding context and projection is important when reviewing numbers, too (which is why these sorts of discussions take place).

Frost is being given time to build a program that will live up to the Nebraska standard and the thing most people are failing to accept is the length of time it's going to take. I think a faction of people in the fanbase are at the prove it stage of things, which is fine, but in time they'll come around because Nebraska will start to have real success again, not the kind of "success" that Callahan, Pelini, and Riley had.

 

[John_J_Rambo_rivals315142]

"Snyder then had a losing season in year 4. The people who like to point out how K-State got it figured out in year 3 always forget that part."

No I didn't forget that....but, again, we're talking about K-State...a program in far worse shape than Nebarska has ever been in (at least not since the late 1950s, anyways).

Now, you can focus on 1999 if you want....but I don't view the Solich (58-19) and Pelini (67-27) eras as "failing". Heck....Callahan even had an over .500 record (not saying he shouldn't have been fired, mind you).

Sorry...but I don't buy that all of Frost's problems, or his 2 losing seasons, are simply because of 2 of the 3 previous seasons not being good....and I sure as hell don't blame Pelini, Callahan, or Solich for them, either.

What’s your explanation?

 

[hedonistimpulse]

Woody Hayes was 26-9-2 in his first 4 seasons at Ohio State. Bear was 31-7-5 in his first 4 seasons at Alabama.

I think we're just going to have to disagree....I just don't buy the notion that 2 losing seasons under Riley excuses (potentially) 3 (or more) losing seasons under Frost.

aOSU won the Rose Bowl two years before Hayes's arrival and finished ranked 10th in the coaches poll the year before Hayes took over.

Bear Bryant had 13 years of major head coaching experience when he took over Alabama.

Context in the numbers is important if you truly want to understand them.

 

[artguy68]

The fact is there have been coaches that had immediate success, there are coaches that took several years to have success, and there are coaches who took a few years to have success. There is no one clear pattern. The argument can go on forever (it kinda already has) and there will never be a winner.

The fact also is that we have Scott Frost, and he will either lead us back to prominence or fail. We have no better options, there are only different options or worse options.

 

[Nebraska_Reality]

aOSU won the Rose Bowl two years before Hayes's arrival and finished ranked 10th in the coaches poll the year before Hayes took over.

Bear Bryant had 13 years of major head coaching experience when he took over Alabama.

Context in the numbers is important if you truly want to understand them.

I understand all that. Look at the context in which the "turnarounds" made by those two coaches...and to which I was responding when I posted that.

 

[Nebraska_Reality]

The Solich era is the only era that won a conference championship and/or had a Top 10 season according to the AP/Coaches Polls, so lumping that era with Callahan, Pelini, Riley, or Frost is misapplying numbers without understanding them.

That being said, Devaney and Osborne led the Huskers to a Top 10 finish in one of the two major polls 28 times in 37 years. That's the standard at the University of Nebraska.

Nebraska hasn't finished ranked in the Top 10 in the last 16 years.

If Frost loses every game of substance like Pelini, that's below the standard. If he finishes just above .500 like Callahan, that's below the standard. If Frost has a 7-win season like Snyder in year 3 and then doesn't make a bowl game in year 4 or a 9-win season like Riley and then a 4-win year following that, it's well below the standard and would be viewed as cataclysmic by Nebraska fans. 9-15 is also below the standard, but understanding context and projection is important when reviewing numbers, too (which is why these sorts of discussions take place).

Frost is being given time to build a program that will live up to the Nebraska standard and the thing most people are failing to accept is the length of time it's going to take. I think a faction of people in the fanbase are at the prove it stage of things, which is fine, but in time they'll come around because Nebraska will start to have real success again, not the kind of "success" that Callahan, Pelini, and Riley had.

For starters, Pelini's record isn't what got him fired.....his behavior did. I feel pretty sure that he'd still be the Nebraska coach right now if he was a coach that had the record he did, with the Riley/Solich demeanor.

Secondly, I don't buy the idea that Frost should get (potentially) 3+ years to recover a program from 2 bad years.

Lastly, no....I don't know that Frost will fail. However, your statement that he will have "real success" in time isn't based on any sort of reality, either, because you also don't know.

Let me ask you this.....Greg Schiano is re-taking over a very down program in Rutgers. If he goes 4-8 or 5-7 in his first season back (and I think 4-8 is doable for them, with 5-7 being possible if they get a break or two to go their way), and Frost goes 5-7 or 6-6 in 2020, do you at all see that as a problem?

 

[John_J_Rambo_rivals315142]

For starters, Pelini's record isn't what got him fired.....his behavior did. I feel pretty sure that he'd still be the Nebraska coach right now if he was a coach that had the record he did, with the Riley/Solich demeanor.

Secondly, I don't buy the idea that Frost should get (potentially) 3+ years to recover a program from 2 bad years.

Lastly, no....I don't know that Frost will fail. However, your statement that he will have "real success" in time isn't based on any sort of reality, either, because you also don't know.

Let me ask you this.....Greg Schiano is re-taking over a very down program in Rutgers. If he goes 4-8 or 5-7 in his first season back (and I think 4-8 is doable for them, with 5-7 being possible if they get a break or two to go their way), and Frost goes 5-7 or 6-6 in 2020, do you at all see that as a problem?

What’s your explanation?

 

[hedonistimpulse]

For starters, Pelini's record isn't what got him fired.....his behavior did. I feel pretty sure that he'd still be the Nebraska coach right now if he was a coach that had the record he did, with the Riley/Solich demeanor.

Secondly, I don't buy the idea that Frost should get (potentially) 3+ years to recover a program from 2 bad years.

Lastly, no....I don't know that Frost will fail. However, your statement that he will have "real success" in time isn't based on any sort of reality, either, because you also don't know.

Let me ask you this.....Greg Schiano is re-taking over a very down program in Rutgers. If he goes 4-8 or 5-7 in his first season back (and I think 4-8 is doable for them, with 5-7 being possible if they get a break or two to go their way), and Frost goes 5-7 or 6-6 in 2020, do you at all see that as a problem?

How many ways do you need it explained that Nebraska has been down for years? I get that you're saying they've only had two bad years prior to Frost's takeover, but look at some of the mediocre programs that have finished in the Top 10 in the last 16 years and explain to me how Nebraska doesn't accidentally get there:

-Cal
-Iowa
-Louisville
-West Virginia
-Missouri
-Boston College
-Cincinnati
-Arkansas
-South Carolina
-UCF
-Georgia Tech
-UCLA
-Ole Miss
-Houston
-Washington State
-Minnesota

You can't possibly say that a team that's been "good" for the last 60 years (-2) couldn't make this list in the last 16 years, but that's exactly what you're doing.

As for Pelini, I have as many conference championships, NY6 Bowl appearances, and Top 10 finishes as he does as a FBS coach and Wisconsin just scored again. I applaud his efforts, but Nebraska would have never won anything under his guidance because he peaked in 2009 with a roster full of kids he didn't recruit. Understanding the context here is important which is why Nebraska fans were okay with him being fired instead of pointing out his ability to beat bad teams like it justified him getting rolled by every team with a pulse.

 

[Nebraska_Reality]

How many ways do you need it explained that Nebraska has been down for years? I get that you're saying they've only had two bad years prior to Frost's takeover, but look at some of the mediocre programs that have finished in the Top 10 in the last 16 years and explain to me how Nebraska doesn't accidentally get there:

-Cal
-Iowa
-Louisville
-West Virginia
-Missouri
-Boston College
-Cincinnati
-Arkansas
-South Carolina
-UCF
-Georgia Tech
-UCLA
-Ole Miss
-Houston
-Washington State
-Minnesota

You can't possibly say that a team that's been "good" for the last 60 years (-2) couldn't make this list in the last 16 years, but that's exactly what you're doing.

Anyway, Frost isn't going 5-7 in 2020, so your hypothetical is moot, but if it were to happen it would be a problem.

As for Pelini, I have as many conference championships, NY6 Bowl appearances, and Top 10 finishes as he does as a FBS coach and Wisconsin just scored again. I applaud his efforts, but Nebraska would have never won anything under his guidance because he peaked in 2009 with a roster full of kids he didn't recruit. Understanding the context here is important which is why Nebraska fans were okay with him being fired instead of pointing out his ability to beat bad teams like it justified him getting rolled by every team with a pulse.

You may have the same number of conference titles that Pelini does, but I guarantee you that he had more wins after 7 seasons than Frost will.

Not sure how Pelini peaked in 2009, when he had two 10-win teams after than, but whatever.

Also not sure how you know that Frost won't go 5-7 in 2020. I think 7-5 is possible. I also think 4-8 is just as possible.

BTW--Devaney and Osborne were coaching in a different era. Smaller and weaker conference (bottom of the Big XII was far more competitive than the bottom of the old Big 8 back in the 70s and 80s). Fewer scholarship limitations. I think you're going to be habitually disappointed if you're expecting Nebraska to finish in the Top 10 75% of the time.

 

[timnsun]

You may have the same number of conference titles that Pelini does, but I guarantee you that he had more wins after 7 seasons than Frost will.

Not sure how Pelini peaked in 2009, when he had two 10-win teams after than, but whatever.

Also not sure how you know that Frost won't go 5-7 in 2020. I think 7-5 is possible. I also think 4-8 is possible.

By the same token, I’m not sure how you know his ceiling is 7-5... oh wait... it’s all opinion anyway.

 

[hedonistimpulse]

You may have the same number of conference titles that Pelini does, but I guarantee you that he had more wins after 7 seasons than Frost will.

Not sure how Pelini peaked in 2009, when he had two 10-win teams after than, but whatever.

Also not sure how you know that Frost won't go 5-7 in 2020. I think 7-5 is possible. I also think 4-8 is just as possible.

BTW--Devaney and Osborne were coaching in a different era. Smaller and weaker conference (bottom of the Big XII was far more competitive than the bottom of the old Big 8 back in the 70s and 80s). Fewer scholarship limitations. I think you're going to be habitually disappointed if you're expecting Nebraska to finish in the Top 10 75% of the time.

Regarding "my" reality that Frost is going to be successful, I can base that on the fact that he's had real success.

Frost has three losing seasons in four years, that's a fact, but it's also a fact that no team he's coached has finished a season with a worse record than the previous year. Frost's teams have improved each year - why would you (or anyone else) predict Nebraska to not win more than 5 games this year? Obviously this trend will eventually end, but you're saying 5 is the number?

And people conveniently gloss over that 13-0 season like it doesn't count. The list of recent coaches (no offense to Pop Warner or Knute Rockne) to lead a FBS team to an undefeated season at age 42 or younger (Frost was 41):

1960-Present

-Scott Frost
-Dan Devine*
-John McKay*
-Darrell Royal*
-Frank Broyles
-Joe Paterno*
-Frank Kush*
-Jack Murphy
-Bill Mallory
-Barry Switzer*
-Bill Davidson
-Johnny Majors
-Danny Ford
-Terry Bowden
-Bob Stoops
-Urban Meyer*
-Chris Petersen*

*Denotes more than one undefeated season

Sublist of the guys above who failed to win at least one conference championship in addition to their undefeated season:

-Scott Frost
-Jack Murphy

Completely ignore history and trends to say something won't happen, but is Scott Frost like the rest of the guys on his ultra-exclusive list or is he like Jack Murphy? The only thing I am basing intuition or gut on is that Frost sees his success at Nebraska, not somewhere else.

Lastly, you're saying teams can't finish Top 10 75% of the time? Cool, how about once every 15 years - realistic in this new game you're talking about? What about the median average of the schools within 50 wins of Nebraska's all-time wins adjustable based on recent trends of the game and the teams? Still think 0-16 falls in the "they've only been down 2 years" category when you devise any reasonable math-based method of comparison? You absolutely can think that Frost is alleviating a 2-year lull, but you can't support it with anything fact-based.

TL/DR, don't care. GBR.

 

[phoenix4nu]

The Solich era is the only era that won a conference championship and/or had a Top 10 season according to the AP/Coaches Polls, so lumping that era with Callahan, Pelini, Riley, or Frost is misapplying numbers without understanding them.

That being said, Devaney and Osborne led the Huskers to a Top 10 finish in one of the two major polls 28 times in 37 years. That's the standard at the University of Nebraska.

Nebraska hasn't finished ranked in the Top 10 in the last 16 years.

If Frost loses every game of substance like Pelini, that's below the standard. If he finishes just above .500 like Callahan, that's below the standard. If Frost has a 7-win season like Snyder in year 3 and then doesn't make a bowl game in year 4 or a 9-win season like Riley and then a 4-win year following that, it's well below the standard and would be viewed as cataclysmic by Nebraska fans. 9-15 is also below the standard, but understanding context and projection is important when reviewing numbers, too (which is why these sorts of discussions take place).

Frost is being given time to build a program that will live up to the Nebraska standard and the thing most people are failing to accept is the length of time it's going to take. I think a faction of people in the fanbase are at the prove it stage of things, which is fine, but in time they'll come around because Nebraska will start to have real success again, not the kind of "success" that Callahan, Pelini, and Riley had.

Regarding "my" reality that Frost is going to be successful, I can base that on the fact that he's had real success.

Frost has three losing seasons in four years, that's a fact, but it's also a fact that no team he's coached has finished a season with a worse record than the previous year. Frost's teams have improved each year - why would you (or anyone else) predict Nebraska to not win more than 5 games this year? Obviously this trend will eventually end, but you're saying 5 is the number?

And people conveniently gloss over that 13-0 season like it doesn't count. The list of recent coaches (no offense to Pop Warner or Knute Rockne) to lead a FBS team to an undefeated season at age 42 or younger (Frost was 41):

1960-Present

-Scott Frost
-Dan Devine*
-John McKay*
-Darrell Royal*
-Frank Broyles
-Joe Paterno*
-Frank Kush*
-Jack Murphy
-Bill Mallory
-Barry Switzer*
-Bill Davidson
-Johnny Majors
-Danny Ford
-Terry Bowden
-Bob Stoops
-Urban Meyer*
-Chris Petersen*

*Denotes more than one undefeated season

Sublist of the guys above who failed to win at least one conference championship in addition to their undefeated season:

-Scott Frost
-Jack Murphy

Completely ignore history and trends to say something won't happen, but is Scott Frost like the rest of the guys on his ultra-exclusive list or is he like Jack Murphy? The only thing I am basing intuition or gut on is that Frost sees his success at Nebraska, not somewhere else.

Lastly, you're saying teams can't finish Top 10 75% of the time? Cool, how about once every 15 years - realistic in this new game you're talking about? What about the median average of the schools within 50 wins of Nebraska's all-time wins adjustable based on recent trends of the game and the teams? Still think 0-16 falls in the "they've only been down 2 years" category when you devise any reasonable math-based method of comparison? You absolutely can think that Frost is alleviating a 2-year lull, but you can't support it with anything fact-based.

TL/DR, don't care. GBR.

How many of those coaches had an undefeated season in a non-power 5 conference and then won a conference title in a power 5 conference. It's harder to succeed in a power 5 conference in my opinion.

 

[hedonistimpulse]

How many of those coaches had an undefeated season in a non-power 5 conference and then won a conference title in a power 5 conference. It's harder to succeed in a power 5 conference in my opinion.

The question is tough because of conference affiliations and how they've changed. For example, Dan Devine led Arizona State to an unbeaten year when they were in the Border Conference - he proceeded to lead Mizzou to an undefeated season in the Big 8 and win a Natty with a 1-loss team at Notre Dame. We counting the Border Conference as P5 or G5?

Both lists are comprehensive, though. That's every FBS coach who was 42 or younger who has went undefeated in the most recent 60 years of the sport.

As for moving up or moving down, Terry Bowden had the most success of his career at Auburn where he went 47-17-1 and he's won conferences for several smaller schools before and after going undefeated in the SEC, but has never produced another perfect season.

Bill Mallory, Urban Meyer, and Chris Petersen went undefeated at G5 schools and then won P5 conference championships - those three are definite qualifiers.

A lot of these guys never left the school they were at or coached at the G5 level, so that information is open to interpretation and sure to suffer from some bias...which is exactly why I took the time to list every coach instead of cherry-picking names. Just the facts.

 

[John_J_Rambo_rivals315142]

You may have the same number of conference titles that Pelini does, but I guarantee you that he had more wins after 7 seasons than Frost will.

Not sure how Pelini peaked in 2009, when he had two 10-win teams after than, but whatever.

Also not sure how you know that Frost won't go 5-7 in 2020. I think 7-5 is possible. I also think 4-8 is just as possible.

BTW--Devaney and Osborne were coaching in a different era. Smaller and weaker conference (bottom of the Big XII was far more competitive than the bottom of the old Big 8 back in the 70s and 80s). Fewer scholarship limitations. I think you're going to be habitually disappointed if you're expecting Nebraska to finish in the Top 10 75% of the time.

answer the question. we know the myriad reasons you don't believe for the lack of recent success.

what is your explanation for it?

 

[Nebraska_Reality]

Regarding "my" reality that Frost is going to be successful, I can base that on the fact that he's had real success.

Frost has three losing seasons in four years, that's a fact, but it's also a fact that no team he's coached has finished a season with a worse record than the previous year. Frost's teams have improved each year - why would you (or anyone else) predict Nebraska to not win more than 5 games this year? Obviously this trend will eventually end, but you're saying 5 is the number?

And people conveniently gloss over that 13-0 season like it doesn't count. The list of recent coaches (no offense to Pop Warner or Knute Rockne) to lead a FBS team to an undefeated season at age 42 or younger (Frost was 41):

1960-Present

-Scott Frost
-Dan Devine*
-John McKay*
-Darrell Royal*
-Frank Broyles
-Joe Paterno*
-Frank Kush*
-Jack Murphy
-Bill Mallory
-Barry Switzer*
-Bill Davidson
-Johnny Majors
-Danny Ford
-Terry Bowden
-Bob Stoops
-Urban Meyer*
-Chris Petersen*

*Denotes more than one undefeated season

Sublist of the guys above who failed to win at least one conference championship in addition to their undefeated season:

-Scott Frost
-Jack Murphy

Completely ignore history and trends to say something won't happen, but is Scott Frost like the rest of the guys on his ultra-exclusive list or is he like Jack Murphy? The only thing I am basing intuition or gut on is that Frost sees his success at Nebraska, not somewhere else.

Lastly, you're saying teams can't finish Top 10 75% of the time? Cool, how about once every 15 years - realistic in this new game you're talking about? What about the median average of the schools within 50 wins of Nebraska's all-time wins adjustable based on recent trends of the game and the teams? Still think 0-16 falls in the "they've only been down 2 years" category when you devise any reasonable math-based method of comparison? You absolutely can think that Frost is alleviating a 2-year lull, but you can't support it with anything fact-based.

TL/DR, don't care. GBR.

Frost had a better record in 2019 over 2018 because they played a 2-10 South Alabama instead of a 10-2 Troy. 3-6 and 2nd to last in the B1G West in both seasons.

How many teams have finished in the Top 10 in 15 of the last 20 seasons? Here's one answer....Alabama hasn't even done that.

 

[hedonistimpulse]

Frost had a better record in 2019 over 2018 because they played a 2-10 South Alabama instead of a 10-2 Troy. 3-6 and 2nd to last in the B1G West in both seasons.

Nebraska beat Bethune Cookman year 1 - what's the year 2 equivalent in your higher or lower weighted value for that game? Let me know so I can keep up, but, as a courtesy, I'm gonna let you know that 4-8 does not = 5-7 in any scenario, so seek out an alternate solution.

Peak (verb): Reach a highest point, either of a specified value or at a specified time.

Also, I'm questioning your lack of understanding in my saying Pelini peaked in 2009 because he won 10 games and Nebraska finished with its highest ranking under him...he never surpassed that mark in the win column or the ranking. It's not a riddle or a turn of phrase, it's the very literal sense of the word. Are you still seeking resolution on this comment or does this clear it up for you?

 

[John_J_Rambo_rivals315142]

Frost had a better record in 2019 over 2018 because they played a 2-10 South Alabama instead of a 10-2 Troy. 3-6 and 2nd to last in the B1G West in both seasons.

How many teams have finished in the Top 10 in 15 of the last 20 seasons? Here's one answer....Alabama hasn't even done that.

why are you ignoring my very simple question?

what's your explanation for the lack of success?

 

[hedonistimpulse]

Frost had a better record in 2019 over 2018 because they played a 2-10 South Alabama instead of a 10-2 Troy. 3-6 and 2nd to last in the B1G West in both seasons.

How many teams have finished in the Top 10 in 15 of the last 20 seasons? Here's one answer....Alabama hasn't even done that.

Are you even trying? Just using the AP Poll with P5 teams currently 50 or fewer wins above/below Nebraska and their results from 2005-2019 - which is 15 years exactly as I stated because it includes the entire time frame Nebraska has been excluded -
(a score of 12+=75%+):

aOSU: 13
Alabama: 13
Texas: 5
Notre Dame: 3
Oklahoma: 9
(Nebraska goes here at 0/15)
Penn State: 6

Going with the median of teams not named Nebraska gives you 7.5/15.
Going with the mean of teams not named Nebraska gives you 8.2/15.

If you include Michigan (+more than 50), 2, and USC, 6, and Tennessee, 0, (-50, but not -60):

Median: 6
Mean: 6.3

Including Nebraska:

Median: 5.5
Mean: 5.7

I'm not a rocket scientist, but I see Bama and aOSU at over 75%. If you extrapolate far enough nobody is at 75%, which is why just competing in your weight bracket carries significance.

Accordingly, Nebraska should have had at least 5 Top-10 finishes just to be an average team in its win range in the last 15 years. The Huskers, like the Volunteers, are in need of a prolonged rebuild to get back on track.

If you need anymore help breaking down Nebraska and its roughly 15-year step away from the spotlight, I got you. You're gonna love it when Frost orchestrates a little regression to the mean, too. GBR.

 

[jlb321_rivals110621]

Are you even trying? Just using the AP Poll with P5 teams currently 50 or fewer wins above/below Nebraska and their results from 2005-2019 - which is 15 years exactly as I stated because it includes the entire time frame Nebraska has been excluded -
(a score of 12+=75%+):

aOSU: 13
Alabama: 13
Texas: 5
Notre Dame: 3
Oklahoma: 9
(Nebraska goes here at 0/15)
Penn State: 6

Going with the median of teams not named Nebraska gives you 7.5/15.
Going with the mean of teams not named Nebraska gives you 8.2/15.

If you include Michigan (+more than 50), 2, and USC, 6, and Tennessee, 0, (-50, but not -60):

Median: 6
Mean: 6.3

Including Nebraska:

Median: 5.5
Mean: 5.7

I'm not a rocket scientist, but I see Bama and aOSU at over 75%. If you extrapolate far enough nobody is at 75%, which is why just competing in your weight bracket carries significance.

Accordingly, Nebraska should have had at least 5 Top-10 finishes just to be an average team in its win range in the last 15 years. The Huskers, like the Volunteers, are in need of a prolonged rebuild to get back on track.

If you need anymore help breaking down Nebraska and its roughly 15-year step away from the spotlight, I got you. You're gonna love it when Frost orchestrates a little regression to the mean, too. GBR.

these data do not include the 2019 season - data is exclusive to blue blood programs

I defined an elite season as minimum finishing in the top 10 or a NY6 bowl
Our last elite season was in 2001

Listed is what other blue blood programs have accomplished since that time (2001)

Texas - 7 top 10s, 5 major bowls, 1 nat title
USC - 9 top 10s, 9 major bowls, 2 nat titles
Alabama - 12 top 10s, 9 major bowls, 5 nat titles
Michigan - 5 top 10s, 6 major bowls
OSU - 15 top 10s, 14 major bowls, 2 nat titles
ND - 3 top 10s, 5 major bowls
OU - 11 top 10s, 13 major bowls
Penn State - 5 top 10s, 4 major bowls


Nebraska is the only program without an elite season in the past 5 years
Nebraska is the only program without an elite season in the past 10 years
Nebraska is the only program without an elite season in the past 15 years


when it comes to blue bloods and winning we hear things are cyclical quite often

List of longest streaks (cycles) without a top ten finish or major bowl appearance by a blue blood (+ Penn State)
1960 - current

Michigan - 4 years
Alabama - 5 years
OSU - 6 years
USC - 7 years
ND - 7 years
Texas - 8 years
PSU - 8 years
OU - 12 years
Nebraska - 17 years and counting





we are hoping that Frost gets us back to that elite status ... it didn't take very long for other blue bloods when they got their coach

Blue Blood programs and time to elite status. In parenthesis is the number of wins the program had in the 3 years prior to being hired. Jury is out for some - Harbaugh and Herman. Urban took over a team already performing at an elite level so I did not include him. Kept the list to the 90s onward.

Of the 10 coaches listed (not including Frost)

6/10 - elite season in year 2
9-10/10 - elite season by year 3 - can debate Mack Brown

6/9 had won a national title by yr 3 (excluded Herman)
7/9 had played for a national title (above 6 + Kelly)

Blue Blood + Great Coach = elite program by years 2-3 (modern era)


Mack Brown - yr 3 - 7 -1 in conference top 15 -- yr 4 top 10 - (22 combined wins the 3 yrs prior)

Tom Herman - year 2 NY6 win -- (16 wins 3 yrs prior)

Pete Carrol - year 2 top 5 -- Nat Title yrs 3-4 -- (19 wins the prior 3 yrs)

Lloyd Carr - year 3 nat title (25 wins prior 3 years)

Jim Harbaugh - year 2 - top 10 + major bowl (20 wins the prior 3 years)

Jim Tressel - year 2 nat title (25 wins the prior 3 years)

Bob Stoops - year 2 - nat title (12 wins the prior 3 years)

Lou Holtz - year 3 national title (19 wins the prior 3 years)

Brian Kelly - year 3 nat title game (16 wins the prior 3 years)

Nick Saban - year 2 ranked 6th - year 3 nat title (22 wins the prior 3 years)

Scott Frost - ????????????? (19 wins the prior 3 years)