2 more years ..

[hedonistimpulse]

these data do not include the 2019 season

I defined an elite season as minimum finishing in the top 10 or a NY6 bowl
Out last elite season was in 2001

Listed is what other blue blood programs have accomplished since that time (2001)

Texas - 7 top 10s, 5 major bowls, 1 nat title
USC - 9 top 10s, 9 major bowls, 2 nat titles
Alabama - 12 top 10s, 9 major bowls, 5 nat titles
Michigan - 5 top 10s, 6 major bowls
OSU - 15 top 10s, 14 major bowls, 2 nat titles
ND - 3 top 10s, 5 major bowls
OU - 11 top 10s, 13 major bowls
Penn State - 5 top 10s, 4 major bowls


Nebraska is the only program without an elite season in the past 5 years
Nebraska is the only program without an elite season in the past 10 years
Nebraska is the only program without an elite season in the past 15 years


when it comes to blue bloods and winning we hear things are cyclical quite often

List of longest streaks (cycles) without a top ten finish or major bowl appearance by a blue blood (+ Penn State)
1960 - current

Michigan - 4 years
Alabama - 5 years
OSU - 6 years
USC - 7 years
ND - 7 years
Texas - 8 years
PSU - 8 years
OU - 12 years
Nebraska - 17 years and counting





we are hoping that Frost gets us back to that elite status ... it didn't take very long for other blue bloods when they got their coach

Blue Blood programs and time to elite status. In parenthesis is the number of wins the program had in the 3 years prior to being hired. Jury is out for some - Harbaugh and Herman. Urban took over a team already performing at an elite level so I did not include him. Kept the list to the 90s onward.

Of the 10 coaches listed (not including Frost)

6/10 - elite season in year 2
9-10/10 - elite season by year 3 - can debate Mack Brown

6/9 had won a national title by yr 3 (excluded Herman)
7/9 had played for a national title (above 6 + Kelly)

Blue Blood + Great Coach = elite program by years 2-3 (modern era)


Mack Brown - yr 3 - 7 -1 in conference top 15 -- yr 4 top 10 - (22 combined wins the 3 yrs prior)

Tom Herman - year 2 NY6 win -- (16 wins 3 yrs prior)

Pete Carrol - year 2 top 5 -- Nat Title yrs 3-4 -- (19 wins the prior 3 yrs)

Lloyd Carr - year 3 nat title (25 wins prior 3 years)

Jim Harbaugh - year 2 - top 10 + major bowl (20 wins the prior 3 years)

Jim Tressel - year 2 nat title (25 wins the prior 3 years)

Bob Stoops - year 2 - nat title (12 wins the prior 3 years)

Lou Holtz - year 3 national title (19 wins the prior 3 years)

Brian Kelly - year 3 nat title game (16 wins the prior 3 years)

Nick Saban - year 2 ranked 6th - year 3 nat title (22 wins the prior 3 years)

Scott Frost - ????????????? (19 wins the prior 3 years)

Not a blue blood, and a bit of a micro versus macro approach, but what about Baylor and former AAC conference winner Matt Rhule?

The same Baylor of the 63% winning percentage from 2008-2017 and four ranked finishes higher than a single one Nebraska has had since 2001 (all since 2011) and the same Matt Rhule who took over a 7-win team, but went 8-17 in his first two years.

Pretty solid comp between that and Nebraska's 65% winning percentage over the previous decade and its AAC winning coach who took over a 4-win team and has gone 9-15 in two seasons, no?

Props to Rhule for winning a bowl game in year 2, which Frost failed to do, and for going to a NY6 bowl game in year 3, which Frost isn't projected to do, but it's crazy that Frost is considered dead in the water by some after year 2 despite having more wins and a better winning percentage than Rhule through two years after taking over a program with 10 fewer wins than Baylor over the previous five years.

 

[Sporty]

Baylor is still living under a cloud for rules infractions under the last staff. Not sure you can use them as a workable example. I believe they have had some self imposed sanctions which I know was a bowl ban for the 2018 season among other sanctions!

 

[hedonistimpulse]

these data do not include the 2019 season - data is exclusive to blue blood programs

I defined an elite season as minimum finishing in the top 10 or a NY6 bowl
Our last elite season was in 2001

Listed is what other blue blood programs have accomplished since that time (2001)

Texas - 7 top 10s, 5 major bowls, 1 nat title
USC - 9 top 10s, 9 major bowls, 2 nat titles
Alabama - 12 top 10s, 9 major bowls, 5 nat titles
Michigan - 5 top 10s, 6 major bowls
OSU - 15 top 10s, 14 major bowls, 2 nat titles
ND - 3 top 10s, 5 major bowls
OU - 11 top 10s, 13 major bowls
Penn State - 5 top 10s, 4 major bowls


Nebraska is the only program without an elite season in the past 5 years
Nebraska is the only program without an elite season in the past 10 years
Nebraska is the only program without an elite season in the past 15 years


when it comes to blue bloods and winning we hear things are cyclical quite often

List of longest streaks (cycles) without a top ten finish or major bowl appearance by a blue blood (+ Penn State)
1960 - current

Michigan - 4 years
Alabama - 5 years
OSU - 6 years
USC - 7 years
ND - 7 years
Texas - 8 years
PSU - 8 years
OU - 12 years
Nebraska - 17 years and counting





we are hoping that Frost gets us back to that elite status ... it didn't take very long for other blue bloods when they got their coach

Blue Blood programs and time to elite status. In parenthesis is the number of wins the program had in the 3 years prior to being hired. Jury is out for some - Harbaugh and Herman. Urban took over a team already performing at an elite level so I did not include him. Kept the list to the 90s onward.

Of the 10 coaches listed (not including Frost)

6/10 - elite season in year 2
9-10/10 - elite season by year 3 - can debate Mack Brown

6/9 had won a national title by yr 3 (excluded Herman)
7/9 had played for a national title (above 6 + Kelly)

Blue Blood + Great Coach = elite program by years 2-3 (modern era)


Mack Brown - yr 3 - 7 -1 in conference top 15 -- yr 4 top 10 - (22 combined wins the 3 yrs prior)

Tom Herman - year 2 NY6 win -- (16 wins 3 yrs prior)

Pete Carrol - year 2 top 5 -- Nat Title yrs 3-4 -- (19 wins the prior 3 yrs)

Lloyd Carr - year 3 nat title (25 wins prior 3 years)

Jim Harbaugh - year 2 - top 10 + major bowl (20 wins the prior 3 years)

Jim Tressel - year 2 nat title (25 wins the prior 3 years)

Bob Stoops - year 2 - nat title (12 wins the prior 3 years)

Lou Holtz - year 3 national title (19 wins the prior 3 years)

Brian Kelly - year 3 nat title game (16 wins the prior 3 years)

Nick Saban - year 2 ranked 6th - year 3 nat title (22 wins the prior 3 years)

Scott Frost - ????????????? (19 wins the prior 3 years)

A lot of well thought out data here, nicely done. It'll be interesting to see where Frost falls in with the greats when it's all said and done. In terms of P5 success, he's not pacing the crowd.

 

[jlb321_rivals110621]

Not a blue blood, and a bit of a micro versus macro approach, but what about Baylor and former AAC conference winner Matt Rhule?

The same Baylor of the 63% winning percentage from 2008-2017 and four ranked finishes higher than a single one Nebraska has had since 2001 (all since 2011) and the same Matt Rhule who took over a 7-win team, but went 8-17 in his first two years.

Pretty solid comp between that and Nebraska's 65% winning percentage over the previous decade and its AAC winning coach who took over a 4-win team and has gone 9-15 in two seasons, no?

Props to Rhule for winning a bowl game in year 2, which Frost failed to do, and for going to a NY6 bowl game in year 3, which Frost isn't projected to do, but it's crazy that Frost is considered dead in the water by some after year 2 despite having more wins and a better winning percentage than Rhule through two years after taking over a program with 10 fewer wins than Baylor over the previous five years.

i don't think Frost is dead in the water ... I think he has underachieved to date and I have stated he should get 7 years
I do not put a lot of stock in over-all records but rather elite seasons -- Rhule produced an elite season in year 3

many of those blue blood coaches I cited in my post took over teams with similar win #s the prior 3 years as Frost did

again - on or about year 4 we will start to have our answers
Frost may very well produce top 10 teams on a regular basis -- we will see, if he does everyone will be happy, if he doesn't we will see what level of relative success will placate the fan base

 

[hedonistimpulse]

Baylor is still living under a cloud for rules infractions under the last staff. Not sure you can use them as a workable example. I believe they have had some self imposed sanctions which I know was a bowl ban for the 2018 season among other sanctions!

You're right, but they did not receive sanctions in terms of scholarships or probation or a postseason ban. They received financial sanctions and made significant changes to their administration and coaching staff.

That college is not what they were when Nebraska was in the Big XII. Their baseball team is very good, they're going to have a 1-seed in the men's and women's basketball tournament this year, the football team won the Big XII conference title in 2012 (outright) and tied for it in 2013. I'm all about Husker Nation, but Baylor is an elite sports college right now and Matt Rhule deserves some credit for a quick recovery there. It's a bitter pill he left, but he did good things in Waco.

That being said, if you're a stars guy, Nebraska out recruits these guys. That's another strike on the development side of things and I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir about how that has to change.

 

[hedonistimpulse]

i don't think Frost is dead in the water ... I think he has underachieved to date and I have stated he should get 7 years
I do not put a lot of stock in over-all records but rather elite seasons -- Rhule produced an elite season in year 3

many of those blue blood coaches I cited in my post took over teams with similar win #s the prior 3 years as Frost did

again - on or about year 4 we will start to have our answers
Frost may very well produce top 10 teams on a regular basis -- we will see, if he does everyone will be happy, if he doesn't we will see what level of relative success will placate the fan base

I think that's a good assessment, especially about the elite seasons over total wins because total wins can be misleading, which is exactly why I will never stand up and defend Bo Pelini.

I'm going to comb over your post with the data points because there's a lot there to digest, very interesting stuff. Thanks for taking the time to put that together.