OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[Rutgers Chris]

meta chart is a joke for a company that size. every time it takes a significant dip, they make some announcement that juices it for a while until the next cycle. Remember selling excess energy? Remember next big cloud business? They may do all of these things but it’s turned into a mag-7 roller coaster and Zuck knows how to get people to listen.

haven’t owned Apple in a while. Thinking of building a large position to hold for a long time. Apple owns the consumer and will jump all over this agent push. I would trust Apple agents tied to my handset rather than some app like Muse.

Pretty stark contrast between how the two operate. Meta takes big swings- Instagram, WhatsApp, Oculus, the metaverse, etc. Some home runs, some strikeouts. They also do a great job of copying what’s hot with stories (Snapchat), reels (TikTok), etc. I see it less as hyping or stock pumping than just evolving.

Apple takes much less risk, stays focused on the core business and also keeps rolling. They easily could have come out with an electric car, earlier streaming service or many other rumored side quests but they’ve stayed either disciplined or conservative.

 

[RU206]

Anyone own (VKTX) Viking Therapeutics? Stock shot up yesterday with positive results of a weight loss drug. I would assume a larger company would try to buy it. Anyone with information?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Anyone own (VKTX) Viking Therapeutics? Stock shot up yesterday with positive results of a weight loss drug. I would assume a larger company would try to buy it. Anyone with information?

Definitely an acquisition candidate.

 

[RU05]

Pigs gets fat but hogs get slaughtered. I’m now 100% out of MSFT (except for funds). Saaspocalypse 1.0 was no fun…and the potential circular financing pocalypse, advanced agentic AI and China should keep a lid on MAG7 PE multiples getting crazy.

Current multple on next years expected earnings puts MSFT at $620.

 

[RU05]

Talk on the Half Time today was a narrowing of winners to the MAG7. Led by META.

But i had a ton of green yesterday and more winners then losers today.

Also saw the RUT outperformed today.

 

[Anon1751565407]

Current multple on next years expected earnings puts MSFT at $620.

Current multiple is still up around 27 though. Saaspocalypse this year shrunk the PE down considerably like it was a horse and buggy stock in 1900 as the stock traded in the $390/sh range for 6 months thru July.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Current multple on next years expected earnings puts MSFT at $620.

+1
Bad time to get out of MSFT. It's heading way, way higher.

 

[Anon1751565407]

+1
Bad time to get out of MSFT. It's heading way, way higher.

I have plenty of MSFT in funds. I’m getting too old to play certain games…and am pivoting to a more dividend/income-heavy strategy.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I have plenty of MSFT in funds. I’m getting too old to play certain games…and am pivoting to a more dividend/income-heavy strategy.

Sounds good, but remember, dividends blow. It is not free money given out by companies. It's essentially forced selling that decreases the value of the company. The vast majority of high dividend stocks have the worst total returns. You should consider sticking with the indexes and selling as you see fit for income.

 

[Anon1751565407]

Sounds good, but remember, dividends blow. It is not free money given out by companies. It's essentially forced selling that decreases the value of the company. The vast majority of high dividend stocks have the worst total returns. You should consider sticking with the indexes and selling as you see fit for income.

I’m focusing on a specific REIT strategy and some fixed income funds. I’m not chasing failing companies with high dividend yields.
I assume NIKE pays a dividend but if
If NIKE’s stock falls and nobody is paying attention to hear it does it make a sound? I saw this week soccer star Mbappe is moving on from Nike and going with a company called On…the Roger Federer-backed Swiss shoe company.

 

[RUAldo]

This agent battle is going to heat up. I expect everyone to come full guns blazing. Refuse to believe Google or Apple will concede this space when they both own so many applications and have cloud. IF and I repeat IF, Google or Apple launch an agent service or the Meta Muse numbers are low or have trust issues Meta stock will drop like a rock. I’m actually really liking MSFT here as I now realize whether or not I like co-pilot it does work well and it’s never going away.

 

[RUBlackout]

This agent battle is going to heat up. I expect everyone to come full guns blazing. Refuse to believe Google or Apple will concede this space when they both own so many applications and have cloud. IF and I repeat IF, Google or Apple launch an agent service or the Meta Muse numbers are low or have trust issues Meta stock will drop like a rock. I’m actually really liking MSFT here as I now realize whether or not I like co-pilot it does work well and it’s never going away.

Google and MSFT will always be invested in AI themselves as they can offer what the other frontier models can’t…open access to other models besides their own and more importantly they own cloud storage themselves so they can offer free tiers to users without massive limits.
it’s exactly why Anthropic created MCP connectors so they can have their models connected to more platforms so they can create the plumbing and onboarding. The former companies already have the connected workspace in their ecosystems that are used for work.

 

[RUAldo]

Google and MSFT will always be invested in AI themselves as they can offer what the other frontier models can’t…open access to other models besides their own and more importantly they own cloud storage themselves so they can offer free tiers to users without massive limits.
it’s exactly why Anthropic created MCP connectors so they can have their models connected to more platforms so they can create the plumbing and onboarding. The former companies already have the connected workspace in their ecosystems that are used for work.

I expect Amazon to make an agent announcement soon as meta is hooking up with Shopify, instacart, etc. I think agents in the enterprise space work well; created a new agent at work this week in co-pilot. However, Consumer agents are where it gets a little crazy if you ask me. CNBC gave an example (hypothetical?) of AI agents bombarding companies with customer service issues seeking refunds for products and can be programmed to not take no for an answer. Muse agents have a high probability of breaking things or will be exploited. I read somewhere that text/calling scam are increasing thanks to AI agents.

 

[RU05]

Diesel Dan on Fast Money last night:

Meta Musil.

 

[RU05]

I don't have a ton of experience with AI. Gemini mostly.

But been using MUSE a bunch. Seems good. Certainly helpful for what I'm doing.

 

[RUAldo]

I don't have a ton of experience with AI. Gemini mostly.

But been using MUSE a bunch. Seems good. Certainly helpful for what I'm doing.

Apple will probably own the consumer agent space although plenty of room for others like Muse. Apple has the hardware with everything you need like authentication, security, a wallet, app ecosystem, embedded features/settings, etc. An Apple agent would be like a virtual extension of the handset. Plus Apple has something Meta doesn’t = trust.

Google is going to have its own agents that operate within the same ecosystems it dominates which seem much more elegant approach than Muse.

MSFT will dominate enterprise because the products are too sticky and co-pilot is just going to keep getting better now that third party apps are getting embedded.

Need to think about Amazon more but guessing they do an agent that not only includes their marketplace but can go outside to other marketplaces and integrates with Shopify and others. If a turf war ensues it’s going to be hard to predict the fall out.

 

[RUBlackout]

Apple will probably own the consumer agent space although plenty of room for others like Muse. Apple has the hardware with everything you need like authentication, security, a wallet, app ecosystem, embedded features/settings, etc. An Apple agent would be like a virtual extension of the handset. Plus Apple has something Meta doesn’t = trust.

Google is going to have its own agents that operate within the same ecosystems it dominates which seem much more elegant approach than Muse.

MSFT will dominate enterprise because the products are too sticky and co-pilot is just going to keep getting better now that third party apps are getting embedded.

Need to think about Amazon more but guessing they do an agent that not only includes their marketplace but can go outside to other marketplaces and integrates with Shopify and others. If a turf war ensues it’s going to be hard to predict the fall out.

I’m not sure Amazon will go that route. They have Amazon bedrock today which allows AI frontier models to be supported in their cloud infrastructure. They make their money in storage and compute so why go compete in that space when those AI companies need you to supprt their models. Amazon is a massive investor in anthropic and have likely done very well on that investment. Other than getting ROI on that investment any enterprise deal Anthropic does today typically goes through AWS so they are getting paid on every deal in the backend for clients use of Claude. Now while these AI companies will try and be cloud agnostic I’m sure these partner deals have language built into related to their use. It’s all these companies in circular motion of investing in each other.
it’s also why I don’t think AMZN would buy a data company to close them out from using all underlying data sources for their monetization. Then again I’m sure they would want to buy Bloomberg if it ever came up for sales

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Apple will probably own the consumer agent space although plenty of room for others like Muse. Apple has the hardware with everything you need like authentication, security, a wallet, app ecosystem, embedded features/settings, etc. An Apple agent would be like a virtual extension of the handset. Plus Apple has something Meta doesn’t = trust.

Google is going to have its own agents that operate within the same ecosystems it dominates which seem much more elegant approach than Muse.

MSFT will dominate enterprise because the products are too sticky and co-pilot is just going to keep getting better now that third party apps are getting embedded.

Need to think about Amazon more but guessing they do an agent that not only includes their marketplace but can go outside to other marketplaces and integrates with Shopify and others. If a turf war ensues it’s going to be hard to predict the fall out.

I think you’re overhyping Apple’s trust advantage versus Meta. People have been using Facebook for 20+ years and I’m guessing the majority of them have no idea what trust issues you’re referring to. Meta’s biggest strike was making an addictive algorithm for teens. Who facilitated that addiction? Apple is right there. It’s like being mad at the guy who made the crack but not the one who sold it to you. They’re relatively on equal footing from a trust perspective imo.

Also Amazon already shut down agents from shopping per their terms of service. They won’t be able to send their agents to other platforms and not let them into theirs. Long way to go with this race, there will be several winners.

 

[RUAldo]

I think you’re overhyping Apple’s trust advantage versus Meta. People have been using Facebook for 20+ years and I’m guessing the majority of them have no idea what trust issues you’re referring to. Meta’s biggest strike was making an addictive algorithm for teens. Who facilitated that addiction? Apple is right there. It’s like being mad at the guy who made the crack but not the one who sold it to you. They’re relatively on equal footing from a trust perspective imo.

Also Amazon already shut down agents from shopping per their terms of service. They won’t be able to send their agents to other platforms and not let them into theirs. Long way to go with this race, there will be several winners.

My main point on Apple is the iPhone and other products in the Apple ecosystem are already in your hands and Apple owns both the customer and App Store. Whether it’s a revamped Siri or new agent approach - it’s coming. Apple wallet could store tokens for agentic commerce. Heck, you may have a wallet of agents for different tasks. I’m starting to buy AAPL on dips.

No disrespect to Meta I owned it for over a decade. But they make 98% of their revenue from digital ads and largely failed at every attempt to change that. Metaverse/VR, Libra/Diem, Portal, Beacon, FB Credits, Poke, Parse, Rooms…the list goes on and I owned the stock through most of these. I could be wrong but it will crater if Muse numbers go down or fail to monetize…or may be over $1K soon if it’s the dominant agent player.

 

[RUAldo]

I thought this was a joke but hot off the press from Meta event. Oura looking better and better.

“Zuckerberg shared few details about what Muse Charm can do, only to say that people will be able to speak to the gadget to interact with their Meta AI agents “without having to unlock a phone or open an app.” He didn’t say how much it would cost, but said that Meta needs to “finalize laying out the components” and is “planning to have this ready to ship in time for the holidays in December.”

 

[Rutgers Chris]

My main point on Apple is the iPhone and other products in the Apple ecosystem are already in your hands and Apple owns both the customer and App Store. Whether it’s a revamped Siri or new agent approach - it’s coming. Apple wallet could store tokens for agentic commerce. Heck, you may have a wallet of agents for different tasks. I’m starting to buy AAPL on dips.

No disrespect to Meta I owned it for over a decade. But they make 98% of their revenue from digital ads and largely failed at every attempt to change that. Metaverse/VR, Libra/Diem, Portal, Beacon, FB Credits, Poke, Parse, Rooms…the list goes on and I owned the stock through most of these. I could be wrong but it will crater if Muse numbers go down or fail to monetize…or may be over $1K soon if it’s the dominant agent player.

Tough to have the “everything meta has tried has failed” view at the same time thinking apple will now suddenly figure out Siri or launch a top notch agent. They’ve largely fumbled both up to this point. I think doubting both is fair

 

[Rutgers Chris]

I thought this was a joke but hot off the press from Meta event. Oura looking better and better.

“Zuckerberg shared few details about what Muse Charm can do, only to say that people will be able to speak to the gadget to interact with their Meta AI agents “without having to unlock a phone or open an app.” He didn’t say how much it would cost, but said that Meta needs to “finalize laying out the components” and is “planning to have this ready to ship in time for the holidays in December.”

View attachment 1451815

What’s the joke? Everyone is rumored to be working on one of these.

Apple's AirTag-Sized AI Pendant: Five Features Rumored So Far

Apple is developing a wearable AI device that's been described as a pin or pendant, and that could compete with a similar AI product coming from OpenAI's Jony Ive. It wasn't clear if the wearable would actually make it to launch because Apple sometimes cancels projects, but it is still in the...

www.macrumors.com

https://www.axios.com/2026/01/19/openai-device-2026-lehane-jony-ive

 

[T2Kplus20]

Another nice day for SECZ!

 

[RUAldo]

What’s the joke? Everyone is rumored to be working on one of these.

Apple's AirTag-Sized AI Pendant: Five Features Rumored So Far

Apple is developing a wearable AI device that's been described as a pin or pendant, and that could compete with a similar AI product coming from OpenAI's Jony Ive. It wasn't clear if the wearable would actually make it to launch because Apple sometimes cancels projects, but it is still in the...

www.macrumors.com

https://www.axios.com/2026/01/19/openai-device-2026-lehane-jony-ive

I believe Apple product is supposed to be a pin. Meta looks like a toy stopwatch.

 

[Bueller]

What’s the joke? Everyone is rumored to be working on one of these.

Apple's AirTag-Sized AI Pendant: Five Features Rumored So Far

Apple is developing a wearable AI device that's been described as a pin or pendant, and that could compete with a similar AI product coming from OpenAI's Jony Ive. It wasn't clear if the wearable would actually make it to launch because Apple sometimes cancels projects, but it is still in the...

www.macrumors.com

https://www.axios.com/2026/01/19/openai-device-2026-lehane-jony-ive

Its amazing how easily people slide into their cyber slavery. People wearing trackers and cameras and sound recorders. Oh its a "charm" lol

 

[RUBlackout]

What’s the joke? Everyone is rumored to be working on one of these.

Apple's AirTag-Sized AI Pendant: Five Features Rumored So Far

Apple is developing a wearable AI device that's been described as a pin or pendant, and that could compete with a similar AI product coming from OpenAI's Jony Ive. It wasn't clear if the wearable would actually make it to launch because Apple sometimes cancels projects, but it is still in the...

www.macrumors.com

https://www.axios.com/2026/01/19/openai-device-2026-lehane-jony-ive

I see that as being a chief of staff in your pocket rather than what people are hacking together today using mac minis and text messaging to help manage their day to day
I just thought that is what the watch would evolve too

 

[RU05]

I thought this was a joke but hot off the press from Meta event. Oura looking better and better.

“Zuckerberg shared few details about what Muse Charm can do, only to say that people will be able to speak to the gadget to interact with their Meta AI agents “without having to unlock a phone or open an app.” He didn’t say how much it would cost, but said that Meta needs to “finalize laying out the components” and is “planning to have this ready to ship in time for the holidays in December.”

View attachment 1451815

I feel like the phone is always going to be the command center. Everything else is just more stuff you have to carry around. I don’t want to carry more stuff.

 

[RUAldo]

I feel like the phone is always going to be the command center. Everything else is just more stuff you have to carry around. I don’t want to carry more stuff.

Exactly. Phone is command center. Watch is extension. Ring has its niche.

The glasses, charm, a pin are more like gimics - or if anything else just more crap that doesn’t do anything special. Son bugged the heck out of us for meta glasses last Xmas. Wife didn’t listen. He tinkered with them for a few weeks at most. Hasn’t touched them since.

Apple seems best positioned to own the consumer agent space especially with apps already embedded on the phone/ecosystem. Probably resolves a lot of security concerns with Apple sign-in and agent payments addressed through Apple wallet.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Exactly. Phone is command center. Watch is extension. Ring has its niche.

The glasses, charm, a pin are more like gimics - or if anything else just more crap that doesn’t do anything special. Son bugged the heck out of us for meta glasses last Xmas. Wife didn’t listen. He tinkered with them for a few weeks at most. Hasn’t touched them since.

Apple seems best positioned to own the consumer agent space especially with apps already embedded on the phone/ecosystem. Probably resolves a lot of security concerns with Apple sign-in and agent payments addressed through Apple wallet.

Do you think Apple will restrict other agents from its phones? Because if not, it has no real advantage. If a great agent can be made to operate off of a phone, OpenAI, grok, Anthropic, meta, etc will all have the same access to the consumer as they do now.

ETA- a great example would be Apple Music vs Spotify. A better app wins out regardless of access

 

[RUAldo]

Do you think Apple will restrict other agents from its phones? Because if not, it has no real advantage. If a great agent can be made to operate off of a phone, OpenAI, grok, Anthropic, meta, etc will all have the same access to the consumer as they do now.

ETA- a great example would be Apple Music vs Spotify. A better app wins out regardless of access

Assuming Apple makes a serious play in the agent space, it will probably look more like an embedded phone feature than simply a Muse-type app. Much easier to build an agent management ecosystem around a device - which is why Meta took its shot with Charm. It may finally be the agent that takes the iPhone from hardware to a personal digital friend.

Alphabet will also go heavy in the agent space. I use Google/Gemini/Gmail everyday. An agent that covers those areas alone would probably be enough for me. And Android will take the same approach as Apple.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Assuming Apple makes a serious play in the agent space, it will probably look more like an embedded phone feature than simply a Muse-type app. Much easier to build an agent management ecosystem around a device - which is why Meta took its shot with Charm. It may finally be the agent that takes the iPhone from hardware to a personal digital friend.

Alphabet will also go heavy in the agent space. I use Google/Gemini/Gmail everyday. An agent that covers those areas alone would probably be enough for me. And Android will take the same approach as Apple.

Again, that’s only going to work if Apple locks out the other agents from their phone. Look at the apps on iPhones now. I use Gmail over the Apple mail app, Google Photos over Apple photos, weather channel over Apple weather, Spotify over Apple Music. The list goes on and on. Apple has had this advantage for years in other domains and has shown little ability or desire to build meaningfully better apps.

Using your theoery, Apple should own social media. You’re using their phone, their camera, everything needed is embedded and yet they’ve never even tried.

The best agent is going to win and as long as Apple lets others on, the others will continue to win too.

 

[RU05]

Do you think Apple will restrict other agents from its phones? Because if not, it has no real advantage. If a great agent can be made to operate off of a phone, OpenAI, grok, Anthropic, meta, etc will all have the same access to the consumer as they do now.

ETA- a great example would be Apple Music vs Spotify. A better app wins out regardless of access

The restriction will just be money.

They win even without an agent.

Everyone seems to hate Siri but are still waiting for a good one to come out. Maybe when it does they do take over?

I still default back to Gemini, just because Google is such a go to.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

The restriction will just be money.

They win even without an agent.

Everyone seems to hate Siri but are still waiting for a good one to come out. Maybe when it does they do take over?

I still default back to Gemini, just because Google is such a go to.

That’s kinda my point. Apple has been a winner in the ai race by not spending on ai. I expect that to continue

 

[RU05]

That’s kinda my point. Apple has been a winner in the ai race by not spending on ai. I expect that to continue

How would SIRI be good without all the compute? I assume all the money spent by Meta is the compute behind Muse.

Someone was saying some of these AI models are working on CPU's, not needing the GPU's, thus are cheaper.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

How would SIRI be good without all the compute? I assume all the money spent by Meta is the compute behind Muse.

Someone was saying some of these AI models are working on CPU's, not needing the GPU's, thus are cheaper.

I don’t think Siri will ever be good because Apple won’t spend what is needed on it. Seems like a conscious choice

 

[RU05]

Nice mid day comeback. I was down 1% early. Back near even.

 

[RU05]

META continuing to climb. Up 3% today. $772.

ATH of $796. ATH closing price of $787. Both back in Aug 2025.

Given the run, this is definitely a short term double top candidate. Take a breather then potentially, on earnings perhaps, run to new ATH's.

 

[RU05]

Sold some stuff.

NEE had been doing well, but has fallen back. Slightly in the green.

LYFT similar story.

NRG one of my biggest winners and at one point my biggest positions. Already sold half a couple months back. Selling the the rest today.

Bought GOOGL.

 

[RU05]

Sold VRT at a loss. But I needed some losses to offset my gains.

 

[RUAldo]

Did some cleanup this week dumping losers that are or will be punished by the Fed (lesson learned); slowly working cash into AAPL, MSFT, NET, ACN, AKAM, AMZN…spec play is FIGR