Josh Barr might have played some minor role in Connor's plans last year.
EARLY 2026-27 lineup projections/discussions
- Thread starter backdrft76-1
- Start date
First five weight certifications for the 2026-2027 season are in, per Track Wrestling:
Luke Lilledahl | 133 | M | Jr. | 0-0 | ||
| Braeden Davis | 149 | M | Sr. | 0-0 | ||
| Hayden Cunningham | 149 | M | Jr. | 0-0 | ||
| Kyison Garcia | 157 | M | Sr. | 0-0 | ||
| Connor Pierce | 165 | M | RS Fr. | 0-0 | ||
A reminder because every year somebody gets confused by this:
These are NOT their weight classes for the upcoming year. Also not their actual weights on Cert Day. These are their weight classes on Cert Day, which is meaningless because there is no competition today
On Cert Day, everybody weighs in at least 1 weight class above their competition weights. 2 above is not uncommon. 3 above is rare but does happen. The guys are weighed while "fully hydrated," after which they can put out a 5-alarm fire without a hydrant.
So for example: Pierce is not planning to wrestle 165. He definitely can go 157. And 149 is probably realistic, depending on his exact weight on Cert Day -- definitely if he weighed 157.5; harder if he weighed 164.5.
I agree. Cole was the heavy last year while conner battled for 197. He didn't start and wrestled more freestyle last year, took the off season to get up to heavy and have Cole wrestle free this year. Im sure this was talked about amongst them. Idk I could be way off here but in my head it makes sense.
Connor will definitely have a good shot at winning it all. Especially if he adds some good weight via the weight room. Love to see him at 245/250. Will see. Put him on the AC Calorie intake.
This is a tough one to pin down for a couple of reasons.
But as a special gift to @WexfordWarrior let's give it a shot anyway.
Based on the last four years of data a one standard deviation move in team scores is approximately 25%. That is to say that based on seeds what a team would expect to score and what they actually score differs by about 1% at the one standard deviation level. So if Team A is 25% behind Team B they have a roughly 14% chance to overtake Team B.
Right now Flo has PSU with a 20% edge relative to OSU. Taken at face value that would imply OSU has a 21% chance of taking down the King. But that is silly for a few reasons. First, the freshmen are non-existent making the expected scores meaningless. But more importantly, it ignores the reality of PSU with respect to expectations.
PSU always outperforms expectations. Since I began tracking this in 2023 PSU has outperformed by 36.4%, 18.9%, 13.6%, and 12.9%. The percentage decreases in direct correlation with the increase in expected points from 100.8 in 2023 to 160.7 in 2026. So let's assume PSU will have even higher expected points for 2027. If so then maybe they only outperform by 10% or 11%.
That now puts OSU in a bigger hole - maybe 30% to 31%. In that case OSU's odds of overtaking drop to roughly 11%.
That seems a little high to me. My gut tells me it is closer to 5%. It isn't 0% in a sport where injuries are a constant, but given the recent history of PSU at the tournament I would not make it 11%.
Some more trickling in. Notable that Blaze is still light. Didn’t think he looked very big at Poland.
Blaze competing recently at 61 and having worlds in late October him being between 133.1 and 141.0 is no shock .
Considering he supposedly weighed in fully hydrated per the rules, I am surprised he weighed under 141. Since 61kg is basically 134.5 lbs., that means he is walking around no more than six pounds or so over his freestyle weight. That isn't much at all, and is one indicator that he will be at 133 this season rather than 141.
To be honest, I'm not sure Marcus needs to "bulk" to go 141. He could be eating fruits, salads and boiled chicken right now to make the cut to 134 not that tough and switching to steak, potatoes and carbs will get him there naturally lol.
Yeah, his weigh-in sheets for competing at 65KG last year were around 140-141. He just hasn’t grown like we expected. Seems pretty reasonable to expect him at 133. Maybe he sees himself as an Olympic 57Kg.
It will be interesting to see what Ono's weight certification comes in at.
Kind of like twins switching dates in the middle of the evening?What if Cole starts the match and after some well-timed distraction around mid 2nd period Connor finishes the match?
Models give Okie state 17% to win nationals.. the field w ~1% and the rest PSU. Is 17% too high of a chance to win nationals or is it realistically closer to 1:500 chance? Thoughts??
"Models give Okie State 17% ..." Even runway models aren't that stupid.
The irony of Penn State having an 83% chance. @El_Jefe is correct about that model.
I wouldn't go as far as OkSt at 1:500. Probably more like 1:183. Penn State should set another scoring record which is nuts but look at that lineup.
I was also surprised at how high the % was that the math model gave… I guess it’s accounting for the off chance Raney and Ross becoming 1st year champs and Norman placing high.
I'm looking forward to Barr this season.
As a math & statistics professional, objectively, 82% chance PSU wins before the season even starts is probably fairly close to accurate. 82% is overwhelmingly likely in the statistics world, and it is very likely PSU wins. I'd probably guess the odds are closer to the 90% you originally quoted, but either way, beating PSU would be be a monumental upset.
I feel pretty confident the model is more sophisticated and accurate than all the armchair statisticians on here.
Given Oky St. has 3 returning National champions, where past performance inducates all should improve in year 2, and they have a fair shot at 1 or 2 more champs, usually a 5 champ team is in pretty good position to win it all.
I am still stung by our second place team that had 4 champs to Iowa's 1, so a big imbalance can happen without taking the crown.
I think our team entering this year is both deeper and better than last year's team, and will most likely win by about 30 points. I also believe that Oky St. is unlikely to have all three of those kids repeat. Actually, I think there are scenarios where none return as champ, maybe a 17% chance ;-)
What no model is taking into account is the impact of injury. A key injury on Oky St. and we walz into another NC. Conversely, despite our depth, if we were to lose say Luke, or Josh Barr (and no, neither Marisola could drop a quick 30 lbs mid season and do better than low AA at best), we could enter the post season even or an underdog.
17% is significant but practically it's not much of a realistic threat. Barring injury we are in great shape and everyone knows it.
I don't know if anyone has started to look at the math yet, but 2027/28 has me more concerned.
Given Oky St. has 3 returning National champions, where past performance inducates all should improve in year 2, and they have a fair shot at 1 or 2 more champs, usually a 5 champ team is in pretty good position to win it all.
I am still stung by our second place team that had 4 champs to Iowa's 1, so a big imbalance can happen without taking the crown.
I think our team entering this year is both deeper and better than last year's team, and will most likely win by about 30 points. I also believe that Oky St. is unlikely to have all three of those kids repeat. Actually, I think there are scenarios where none return as champ, maybe a 17% chance ;-)
What no model is taking into account is the impact of injury. A key injury on Oky St. and we walz into another NC. Conversely, despite our depth, if we were to lose say Luke, or Josh Barr (and no, neither Marisola could drop a quick 30 lbs mid season and do better than low AA at best), we could enter the post season even or an underdog.
17% is significant but practically it's not much of a realistic threat. Barring injury we are in great shape and everyone knows it.
I don't know if anyone has started to look at the math yet, but 2027/28 has me more concerned.
Penn State has 2 champs that can't improve their scoring by any significant way in Mesenbrink and Barr. Lilledahl has a chance to up his scoring and Penn State has the ability to increase their scores at the 7 other weights.
It will be very difficult for Forrest to increase his scoring based on the weight class. Vega and Robideau will not increase their scoring based on styles and neither will Merrill as none of them have been prolific offensive wrestlers throughout their HS careers. Doucet had 1 TD against a top 15 opponent all season and picked up a 2pt MFF bonus so him improving his scoring is unlikely. That leaves 5 weight classes where OKST can pick up scoring.
Nebraska isn't really a threat to Penn State but could conceivably improve their score enough to challenge OKST.
VaTech gets Henson back and adds Bassett so they could challenge Nebraska if the Cornhuskers have a bad tournament.
The problem with statistical modeling is that they all must make assumptions. Disagree with the assumptions and the results change dramatically. Another issue is normally that people develop a model with an eye to predicting the past. Actually as situations change from year to year predicting the past does not mean you can predict the future. I could go on and on but without seeing what the model is based on I think it might give you an idea but you should not take it as accurate. This is why I really appreciate @Wrestleknownothing coming on and helping us understand how his work is constructed and readily admits where there might be issues
Whatever goggles. I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Stay in your lane.
I am going to take a deeper dive when I have a minute, but in general I love what this guy is doing. If I were to pick a nit it would be that based on his inputs (Flo rankings) I think he should have Oklahoma State scoring about 10 more points, which would decrease the 83% further.
And as for Flo, this is my real nit. They only have 24 ranked this early. Their stated logic is that only 24 wrestlers score. But that is incorrect. Due to pigtails, 25 wrestlers are guaranteed to score. But in practice the 32/33 loser wins almost half the time in the consi pigtail so it is 25.4 scoring wrestlers in reality. Come on Flo you should know the mechanics of the sport's biggest event.
EDIT: He offers a tremendous amount of information on his site, but not everything. At least now I know why he has OSU 10 points lower than I do. He just doesn't trust their early season rankings. For example, they have four #1 ranked wrestlers who he has scoring 19, 18, 17, and 17. Meanwhile PSU's four #1's are expected to score 19, 18, 20, and 20. He just doesn't trust Robideau or Doucet as much as he trusts Mesenbrink and Barr. Can you blame him?
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Mesenbrink and Barr look to me to be the top two favorites to win an NCAA title this season. Barr might actually be the most likely because 197 isn't very top heavy this season. If Mitchell goes 174, he will have Minto to go through.
I agree. I think Barr could can bonus his way through the whole season. Mesenbrink can too obviously but if he is at 174 I see a few tougher matches for him
Certainly not speculating hear or looking to start any rumors but any word on whether Barr is fully healthy. I don’t believe I’ve seen him wrestle or any update since he seemed to hurt his leg at the US Open I believe. Obviously hoping he’s already 100%
Minto might have 20 pounds on Mitch by the time they take the mat, and by the end of the second period Minto will be willing to sell his soul for a couple molecules of O2.
I agree on Barr, he pretty much brutalized everybody last year. It is highly likely compared to this year last year may look mild.
So Okie State at 150 pts because PSU will flirt with 190. That’s crazy.
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