EARLY 2026-27 lineup projections/discussions

[LostInTransition]

I do not recall how Jayden Raney did at U17 or U20 FS World team trials, but I do remember he had some entertaining matches with Jax Forrest in folk. He pinned Jax at Super 32, then lost 18-15 to Jax at WNO, and then lost 10-7 OT to Jax at the Dec 2024 Ironman. Not saying he can beat the top guys at 141, but both the Raney brothers have shown they can hang with elite guys in their age group (Jordyn beat Bo Bassett at least once).

I don't believe we ever got any answers on the Raney's at the US Open this past April. They showed up, registered for Greco but then withdrew without wrestling. They never registered for FS as far as I know. There was message board speculation that DT didn't want them wrestling Greco, presumably wanting them to wrestle FS, but I don't recall seeing any reliable information on why they didn't wrestle.

If anybody has any better intel, I'd love to hear it.

 

[El_Jefe]

I do not recall how Jayden Raney did at U17 or U20 FS World team trials, but I do remember he had some entertaining matches with Jax Forrest in folk. He pinned Jax at Super 32, then lost 18-15 to Jax at WNO, and then lost 10-7 OT to Jax at the Dec 2024 Ironman. Not saying he can beat the top guys at 141, but both the Raney brothers have shown they can hang with elite guys in their age group (Jordyn beat Bo Bassett at least once).

Jordyn Raney (not Jayden) pinned Forrest in 2022. He was losing 14-3 at the time. Neither Raney has competed at Super 32 since 2022.

Jordyn's win over Bassett was also in 2022 (and in freestyle).

I have a hard time projecting Raney college results from those 2 opponents. The twins scored considerably less against other high-end HS wrestlers who don't drive pace to the extent Forrest and Bassett do. Most college opponents won't drive that much pace either -- but are also far better than the "other" guys the Raneys faced in HS.

 

[Nitlion1986]

Don’t think we got a 1/10 chance tho… I do think okie state could win 1/10 times if everything falls in their favor.. also, many probably think Dee Lockett got no chance against Duke but forget Lockett did beat Caliendo at 165..

For the Cowboys to win, they would need to win every possibility and the includes all of the most remote possibility. We aren't talking 1 or 2 good breaks. We are talking 125, 133, 149, 157, 165 (if Mitch is 174), 197, Hwt. For every possibility to fall on OkieSt's side is way more remote than 1 out of 10. It's more like 1 out of 500 or so. Possibly greater.

 

[OzarkLion]

For the Cowboys to win, they would need to win every possibility and the includes all of the most remote possibility. We aren't talking 1 or 2 good breaks. We are talking 125, 133, 149, 157, 165 (if Mitch is 174), 197, Hwt. For every possibility to fall on OkieSt's side is way more remote than 1 out of 10. It's more like 1 out of 500 or so. Possibly greater.

I feel like this is something @Wrestleknownothing would have an exact probability of on a spreadsheet somewhere

 

[WexfordWarrior]

I feel like this is something @Wrestleknownothing would have an exact probability of on a spreadsheet somewhere

Please no.

 

[El_Jefe]

For the Cowboys to win, they would need to win every possibility and the includes all of the most remote possibility. We aren't talking 1 or 2 good breaks.

 

[Kiddagger311]

For the Cowboys to win, they would need to win every possibility and the includes all of the most remote possibility. We aren't talking 1 or 2 good breaks. We are talking 125, 133, 149, 157, 165 (if Mitch is 174), 197, Hwt. For every possibility to fall on OkieSt's side is way more remote than 1 out of 10. It's more like 1 out of 500 or so. Possibly greater.

I don’t think Cowboys chances to win is closer to 1 out of 500 when they will most likely be favored at 133/149/157/hwt.

Would gladly risk every $1 to win $500 if anyone wanted to lay these odds.

 

[Coastal2]

I don’t think Cowboys chances to win is closer to 1 out of 500 when they will most likely be favored at 133/149/157/hwt.

Would gladly risk every $1 to win $500 if anyone wanted to lay these odds.

I'm not sure OKST would be favored at 285. Doucet took 4th but Feldman lost by inj the round before facing him and Ferrari MFF to him so it wasn't like he ran a gauntlet. Cole Mirasola lost a close one to Carroll and Doucet then beat Carroll 1-0. Connor Mirasola is probably favored over Doucet.

 

[Kiddagger311]

I'm not sure OKST would be favored at 285. Doucet took 4th but Feldman lost by inj the round before facing him and Ferrari MFF to him so it wasn't like he ran a gauntlet. Cole Mirasola lost a close one to Carroll and Doucet then beat Carroll 1-0. Connor Mirasola is probably favored over Doucet.

“Cole Mirasola lost a close one to Carroll and Doucet then beat Carroll 1-0. Connor Mirasola is probably favored over Doucet.”

So Bc Cole lost close to Carroll and Doucet beat Caroll now that = Connor is prolly fav? I’m not following the logic but ok lol

Well, going by preseason rankings rn Doucet is ranked #1 at 285 as the highest returning placer.. but the crazy part is most are assuming Ross will win the spot and be the starter.

 

[Coastal2]

“Cole Mirasola lost a close one to Carroll and Doucet then beat Carroll 1-0. Connor Mirasola is probably favored over Doucet.”

So Bc Cole lost close to Carroll and Doucet beat Caroll now that = Connor is prolly fav? I’m not following the logic but ok lol

Well, going by preseason rankings rn Doucet is ranked #1 at 285 as the highest returning placer.. but the crazy part is most are assuming Ross will win the spot and be the starter.

I thought it was always understood that Connor Mirasola was the superior recruit/talent of the two and by a somewhat significant margin. If Doucet is in the Cole Mirasola tier then Connor Mirasola would be a tier above both.

IF Ross was the starter, then even Cole Mirasola would be favored as he easily handled Ross multiple times in '25.

 

[NittanyChris]

I feel badly for Cole because he worked so hard and steadily improved over the course of last season. However, I think that Connor will be the man at 285 this year. It must be especially tough to cede the spot to your twin brother as well.

 

[LostInTransition]

I thought it was always understood that Connor Mirasola was the superior recruit/talent of the two and by a somewhat significant margin. If Doucet is in the Cole Mirasola tier then Connor Mirasola would be a tier above both.

IF Ross was the starter, then even Cole Mirasola would be favored as he easily handled Ross multiple times in '25.

Connor has always been rated higher p4p, the question I have, is how much difference there is between the two of them when Connor is always wrestling up a weight while Connor is at a more optimal weight? I guess we'll see this year.

 

[Dogwelder]

For the Cowboys to win, .. For every possibility to fall on OkieSt's side is way more remote than 1 out of 10. It's more like 1 out of 500 or so. Possibly greater.

 

[PASLP2]

What if Cole starts the match and after some well-timed distraction around mid 2nd period Connor finishes the match?

 

[El_Jefe]

What if Cole starts the match and after some well-timed distraction around mid 2nd period Connor finishes the match?

They should wear masks too.

 

[TwoJoints]

Since it’s been widely reported that Jayden James is not on the current roster, has not enrolled as a full-time student, and is taking a greyshirt year, can someone with greater knowledge of such things than I, explain what, if anything, such a decision means for Jayden’s situation this year regarding his athletic scholarship and participation in NIL revenues. I assume he would not be entitled to either but, if he is in fact attending part time and living in SC, such a decision is certainly costing him some money this year, isn’t it?

 

[Corby2]

Since it’s been widely reported that Jayden James is not on the current roster, has not enrolled as a full-time student, and is taking a greyshirt year, can someone with greater knowledge of such things than I, explain what, if anything, such a decision means for Jayden’s situation this year regarding his athletic scholarship and participation in NIL revenues. I assume he would not be entitled to either but, if he is in fact attending part time and living in SC, such a decision is certainly costing him some money this year, isn’t it?

Well he can't get a scholarship this year. He will have 5 year to compete starting next year. He can not receive revenue sharing $. But he can receive NIL.

 

[LostInTransition]

Since it’s been widely reported that Jayden James is not on the current roster, has not enrolled as a full-time student, and is taking a greyshirt year, can someone with greater knowledge of such things than I, explain what, if anything, such a decision means for Jayden’s situation this year regarding his athletic scholarship and participation in NIL revenues. I assume he would not be entitled to either but, if he is in fact attending part time and living in SC, such a decision is certainly costing him some money this year, isn’t it?

@WillieTheBrain talked about this on the last Basch and The Brain, says Jayden and his family have their eyes on reaching his full potential as a wrestler and not taking shortcuts. It seems Jayden is staying in Happy Valley, training at NLWC, and competing freestyle.

 

[Kiddagger311]

Connor has always been rated higher p4p, the question I have, is how much difference there is between the two of them when Connor is always wrestling up a weight while Connor is at a more optimal weight? I guess we'll see this year.

Well according to Coastal’s logic of Cole losing a close one to Caroll and Doucet beating Caroll close, therefore, Connor should be ranked #1 hwt and should be the fav to win it all

 

[manatree]

What if Cole starts the match and after some well-timed distraction around mid 2nd period Connor finishes the match?

Connor has always been rated higher p4p, the question I have, is how much difference there is between the two of them when Connor is always wrestling up a weight while Connor is at a more optimal weight? I guess we'll see this year.

According to LostIn, the problem has been solved as the two have become one. Perhaps it was settled in some sort of Wisconsin Highlander Quickening with a well sharpened cheese knife.

 

[Goggles Paisano]

For the Cowboys to win, they would need to win every possibility and the includes all of the most remote possibility. We aren't talking 1 or 2 good breaks. We are talking 125, 133, 149, 157, 165 (if Mitch is 174), 197, Hwt. For every possibility to fall on OkieSt's side is way more remote than 1 out of 10. It's more like 1 out of 500 or so. Possibly greater.

Hmmm? Winning 7 of 10 is usually enough. That is kind of silly to say that's what they need to win.

I suspect we would win a 5-5 dual on bonus, so if Oky St could grab 6 we would be in real big trouble. 7 is over kill.

My take is we probably win 7-3, so it would take a perfect storm and maybe some full team food poisoning for the Cowboys to flip three of those matches.

The closest we have seen to a perfect storm in the past 10 years was when Markie dropped his match against Iowa. The Az St. Dual loss was due to injury imo.

 

[Nitlion1986]

I don’t think Cowboys chances to win is closer to 1 out of 500 when they will most likely be favored at 133/149/157/hwt.

Would gladly risk every $1 to win $500 if anyone wanted to lay these odds.

The odds would be math based, not your warm fuzzies.

To determine the proper odds you need to assess the whole thing. You have to account for the odds they win the matches they are slight favorites.

I will cover your $1 bet to win 500, and I will bet $1,000 to win $100 in your 1 out of 10 claim and I am assuming you are covering that.

 

[Coastal2]

Well according to Coastal’s logic of Cole losing a close one to Caroll and Doucet beating Caroll close, therefore, Connor should be ranked #1 hwt and should be the fav to win it all

There are tiers and placing Doucet in the top tier based off one great draw doesn't seem prudent.

Feldman was struggling a bit last season but still except for injury default, he'd have face Doucet in the blood round. Doucet loses that match and he's right where he's been every other year of his career. A fringe AA candidates that needs a good draw. I would place Cole Mirasola in that same tier.

Connor Mirasola showed that he still has his quickness at 125Kg which puts him in my mind a tier above his brother which would put him a tier above Doucet.

From what I've heard, he's put on a solid 10 pounds or more since U23 trials. If he can keep it on and maybe add to it, it wouldn't be surprising if he was ranked #1 by NCAAs.

 

[Kiddagger311]

The odds would be math based, not your warm fuzzies.

To determine the proper odds you need to assess the whole thing. You have to account for the odds they win the matches they are slight favorites.

I will cover your $1 bet to win 500, and I will bet $1,000 to win $100 in your 1 out of 10 claim and I am assuming you are covering that.

Yes I would def take those bets. What warm fuzzies I’m not an okie state fan . Just a realist . The real odds if Penn state even accepts Okie state’s invite to a dual would be closer to -1000 then your proposed -50,000(lol).

 

[PUR158]

I don’t think Cowboys chances to win is closer to 1 out of 500 when they will most likely be favored at 133/149/157/hwt.

Would gladly risk every $1 to win $500 if anyone wanted to lay these odds.

I think Kasak matches up well against Robideau, if he is healthy. He pushes the pace, good hand fighter and would not get lulled into his games.

 

[LostInTransition]

According to LostIn, the problem has been solved as the two have become one. Perhaps it was settled in some sort of Wisconsin Highlander Quickening with a well sharpened cheese knife.

It's hard to tell those twins apart.

 

[Joejitsu]

NCAA points, using the same lineups.

125 PSU +8 (it was +8 last year)
133 OkSt +3 (Ono will score lots of points even if 3rd place)
141 PSU +3 (could be more)
149 Even (Vega was +1 over SVN last year)
157 Even (Robideau scored 20 pts in 1st, TK has 19 &19.5 for 2 3rds )
165 PSU +10
174 PSU +12
184 PSU +6
197 PSU +8 (it was +7.5 last year even with a 2nd place for CM)
285 OkSt +5

PSU +39

Okie State has too many defensive wrestlers to challenge

That’s significant and kasak could win it all and Vega and robideau are not likely to get gifted championships again

 

[HikeNatParks]

That’s significant and kasak could win it all and Vega and robideau are not likely to get gifted championships again

Saying a freshman who beat a national runnerup and 2-time national champ in succession was gifted a title is Sunday-morning-before-coffee silly.

 

[El_Jefe]

That’s significant and kasak could win it all and Vega and robideau are not likely to get gifted championships again

How exactly was Vega gifted a title?

 

[Nitlion1986]

Yes I would def take those bets. What warm fuzzies I’m not an okie state fan . Just a realist . The real odds if Penn state even accepts Okie state’s invite to a dual would be closer to -1000 then your proposed -50,000(lol).

You are a Rutgers fan if I recall contently. Your warm fuzzy statement isn't calling you a cowboy fan, it is making fun of your lack of math understanding.

 

[Nitlion1986]

Yes I would def take those bets. What warm fuzzies I’m not an okie state fan . Just a realist . The real odds if Penn state even accepts Okie state’s invite to a dual would be closer to -1000 then your proposed -50,000(lol).

You are a Rutgers fan if I recall contently. Your warm fuzzy statement isn't calling you a cowboy fan, it is making fun of your lack of math understanding.

 

[tullfan68]

LOL Seyko said JJ was to good to sit,now he has changed his mind!!what a surprise

 

[Kiddagger311]

You are a Rutgers fan if I recall contently. Your warm fuzzy statement isn't calling you a cowboy fan, it is making fun of your lack of math understanding.

Who doesn’t understand the math when you think PSU would be a -50,000 odds fav(lol). Considering Okie state would most likely be fav in 4 matches I don’t think your probabilities and math understanding is mathing correctly buddy.. but sure I’ll gladly wager $100 to win $50,000 if that’s what u believe what the odds are

 

[Kiddagger311]

There are tiers and placing Doucet in the top tier based off one great draw doesn't seem prudent.

Feldman was struggling a bit last season but still except for injury default, he'd have face Doucet in the blood round. Doucet loses that match and he's right where he's been every other year of his career. A fringe AA candidates that needs a good draw. I would place Cole Mirasola in that same tier.

Connor Mirasola showed that he still has his quickness at 125Kg which puts him in my mind a tier above his brother which would put him a tier above Doucet.

From what I've heard, he's put on a solid 10 pounds or more since U23 trials. If he can keep it on and maybe add to it, it wouldn't be surprising if he was ranked #1 by NCAAs.

So bc Doucet had in ,ur opinion, a ez path to his placeing at nationals that means Doucet and Cole = same tier.

And bc u feel Connor is a tier above his brother = now Connor is a tier above Doucet. And therefore no surprises if Connor becomes ranked #1 ok got it thx.

 

[Nitlion1986]

Who doesn’t understand the math when you think PSU would be a -50,000 odds fav(lol). Considering Okie state would most likely be fav in 4 matches I don’t think your probabilities and math understanding is mathing correctly buddy.. but sure I’ll gladly wager $100 to win $50,000 if that’s what u believe what the odds are

Call me when they schedule the match.

I did the math, and if I assume PSU scores less than 6 bonus points, Okie St needs 6 individual wins and if I use the most likely 6 to win it is 1 in 308. Maybe I over stated the odds, but my 1 in 500 is much closer than a wild asssed 1 out of 10 guess pulled from your asss.

 

[Efejle]

Top secret Intel from a spy inside the room! Here is the brand new plan for 2026!

125 Blaze
133 Ono
141 Van Ness
149 Kasak
157 Mitchell
165 Asher
174 Rocco
184 Barr
197 Cole
Hwt Connor

The Intel has come from a spy, only identified by "J. Smith"

 

[NittanyChris]

Please forgive if it's been verified somewhere in this thread, but is it essentially confirmed that Mitchell is moving up to 174? Is it a done deal?

 

[WV lion]

Please forgive if it's been verified somewhere in this thread, but is it essentially confirmed that Mitchell is moving up to 174? Is it a done deal?

Nothing is a done deal until they physically take the mat.

 

[The Pitchfork Rebel]

What if Cole starts the match and after some well-timed distraction around mid 2nd period Connor finishes the match?

I have the walk out music:

 

[Fatwoodchuck]

I feel badly for Cole because he worked so hard and steadily improved over the course of last season. However, I think that Connor will be the man at 285 this year. It must be especially tough to cede the spot to your twin brother as well.

I think this has been the plan since atleast last year, hence conner doing free last year and now Cole this year.