The economy
- Thread starter Rastafarian
- Start date
This China technology competition is accelerating.
From Bloomberg
"China’s DeepSeek is planning a massive artificial-intelligence data center in Inner Mongolia, according to people familiar with the matter, an ambitious move in computing infrastructure from the startup that’s shown it can compete with the leading AI models of Silicon Valley. "
From Bloomberg
"China’s DeepSeek is planning a massive artificial-intelligence data center in Inner Mongolia, according to people familiar with the matter, an ambitious move in computing infrastructure from the startup that’s shown it can compete with the leading AI models of Silicon Valley. "
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OK I have to admit, all of this is confusing....if yesterday trump was humiliated, does today's rise mean he's vindicated?
Micron finished the day up 20% to $890.
Volatility will continue until morale improves.
Volatility will continue until morale improves.
If you read garbage, not much makes sense.
The economy is doing well. The semi sell off was due to the koreans being over leveraged, not because their earnings were bad. In fact it's quite the opposite, the earnings are going to be very strong going into the end of the year.
Despite the doomers on this board, the economy is doing very well. Oil prices are a big factor and could tilt the economy either way. But the average price of a gallon of gas in July was cheaper than a gallon in June. So it will be interestin to see how that pans out.
Expect a tug of war between oil prices, the iran war, interest rates, verse strong corporate earnings, AI growth, and record R&D from the companies.
What doesn't make sense?
Tomorrow we have end of month AND Friday headline risk.
What do you think? I’m still leaving long but took some chips off this afternoon.
Just imho
I am looking for a chop day as the worst case for tomorrow as things stand this evening.
I took a little off today and will probably just watch tomorrow. I am about 2X cash to equities in trading account. August is usually a crap month into Labor Day. Will look to add to AXTI and SOLS tomorrow. Looking to add to PWR and COHR if they pull back off of big gains today.
Tomorrow seems like a crap shoot to me currently after the big fed reversal move today, especially with the global disorder.
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"The US Treasury is exploring bringing some of its cash pile into the roughly $13 trillion market for repurchase agreements, reviving a two-decade old idea and sparking a debate around its potential to reshape a key part of the financial system’s plumbing."
"The cash pile at the Fed has expanded alongside rising government deficits, with Treasury debt outstanding climbing to $31 trillion from $13 trillion at the end of 2015. With about $966 billion in the TGA currently, the Treasury often holds more cash than it expects to need, hence exploring whether to invest some in repo."
"The cash pile at the Fed has expanded alongside rising government deficits, with Treasury debt outstanding climbing to $31 trillion from $13 trillion at the end of 2015. With about $966 billion in the TGA currently, the Treasury often holds more cash than it expects to need, hence exploring whether to invest some in repo."
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I wonder if trump's mother ever read him the story of "the little boy who cried wolf"?
As always, I hope this time we can wrap this bungled fiasco up, somehow.....but am skeptical.
We are running low on munitions and the Iranians know it.
The Saudis( MBS) asked trump to de-escalate cuz they fear the USA will be unable to defend SA when the inevitable reprisal attacks hit SA.
Anybody really believe that Iran will roll over now, giving trump the strait and no- nukes?
Pallets of cash? We are talking oil tankers loaded with US taxpayers cash
We are running low on munitions and the Iranians know it.
The Saudis( MBS) asked trump to de-escalate cuz they fear the USA will be unable to defend SA when the inevitable reprisal attacks hit SA.
Anybody really believe that Iran will roll over now, giving trump the strait and no- nukes?
Pallets of cash? We are talking oil tankers loaded with US taxpayers cash
here's what none of us know...how badly has our bombing hurt Iran? I know what the administration is telling us, but the government hasn't been honest with us since at least the 1960s. And, I know what Iran is telling us, and they're as trustworthy as our own government.
But this time they're both being 100% believable....sure they are
It’s far from over. But the US will get what it wants in the end. No nukes and free passage of the strait. The rest is negotiable.
I doubt if the American people would ever approve of an Iran reconstruction fund, no matter the amount
It’s hard to accept that when our own countries finances are in the *******.
I suppose it could be tolerable , if it were tied to measurable results. But I agree most would not be happy with it.
All eyes were on Japan's financial markets on Monday after the US entered a joint effort with Japan to prop up the nation's sagging currency, which recently slumped to a 40-year low against the dollar as concerns build over Japan's fiscal outlook.
A blast from the past, either last August or the year before when carry trade unwinding threw the US market.
FWIW
The United States and Japan have launched a rare, coordinated currency intervention to strengthen the Japanese yen, driving the currency down to roughly 156.5–157 yen per dollar after it plummeted to a 40-year low of nearly 164. While U.S. stock futures initially pointed higher today due to an easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions, this joint policy action introduces significant systemic risks for U.S. markets—most notably a potential unwinding of the yen carry trade and elevated pressures on U.S. Treasury yields.
Mechanics and Scale of Leverage
FWIW
The United States and Japan have launched a rare, coordinated currency intervention to strengthen the Japanese yen, driving the currency down to roughly 156.5–157 yen per dollar after it plummeted to a 40-year low of nearly 164. While U.S. stock futures initially pointed higher today due to an easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions, this joint policy action introduces significant systemic risks for U.S. markets—most notably a potential unwinding of the yen carry trade and elevated pressures on U.S. Treasury yields.
Mechanics and Scale of Leverage
- The Funding Setup: Investors borrow low-yielding Japanese yen (with official rates around 0.75%) to fund high-yielding U.S. dollar assets like Treasuries or equities.
- Leverage Amplification: Because currency trades happen heavily in the spot and futures FX markets, macro hedge funds and institutional players use margin, turning a base of borrowed capital into a much larger purchasing pool in U.S. assets.
- Total Exposure Estimates: While global estimates historically placed total outstanding yen carry trade exposures well into hundreds of billions or even over a trillion dollars of notional value, precise real-time tracking remains hidden across global bank balance sheets and shadow banking networks.
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Michael Green offers some very insightful information and perspective on passive cap weighted index fund investing.
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HOLY CRAP! President Trump just accused Big Oil companies of making "too much money" off the Iran war — and he called them out BY NAME"Chevron — too much money!"
"Exxon Mobil — too much money!"
"I'm NOT HAPPY."
"GIVE SOME OF THAT BACK TO THE PUBLIC."
"When you look at one company, where they made 12 times what they made the year before...they better CUT the retail price, the consumer price!"
"You're surprised I'm saying it. I'll say it loud and clear!"
"Chevron — too much money!"
"Exxon Mobil — too much money!"
"I'm NOT HAPPY."
"GIVE SOME OF THAT BACK TO THE PUBLIC."
"When you look at one company, where they made 12 times what they made the year before...they better CUT the retail price, the consumer price!"
"You're surprised I'm saying it. I'll say it loud and clear!"
Do you want him to impose price controls, or just “take a stake” in the companies, comrade?
"Chevron — too much money!"
"Exxon Mobil — too much money!"
"I'm NOT HAPPY."
"GIVE SOME OF THAT BACK TO THE PUBLIC."
"When you look at one company, where they made 12 times what they made the year before...they better CUT the retail price, the consumer price!"
"You're surprised I'm saying it. I'll say it loud and clear!"
C’mon old man - you’re not going to place any blame on the man who started an unnecessary war with Iran? Even the blind saw this coming..
"Chevron — too much money!"
"Exxon Mobil — too much money!"
"I'm NOT HAPPY."
"GIVE SOME OF THAT BACK TO THE PUBLIC."
"When you look at one company, where they made 12 times what they made the year before...they better CUT the retail price, the consumer price!"
"You're surprised I'm saying it. I'll say it loud and clear!"
back in the old days, we imposed a windfall profits tax....
China's AI competition with the United States has accelerated dramatically, driven by major open-weight releases like Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 and Alibaba's Qwen3.8-Max, aggressive price cuts on tokens, and surging dominance in AI video generation.
For a closer look at how Chinese open-weight models are challenging the dominance of U.S. closed-source systems and altering the global AI landscape:
For a closer look at how Chinese open-weight models are challenging the dominance of U.S. closed-source systems and altering the global AI landscape:
holy rally batman, watch out above.
Seems like a big short squeeze. Im guessing calm until ....... Friday at 4:15pm
AMERICA IS WINNINGManufacturing is BOOMING!
Factory activity just hit its fastest pace in over FOUR YEARS.
New orders up for SEVEN straight months.
The stock market is setting ALL-TIME HIGHS.
U.S. goods exports just topped $200 BILLION for the fifth month in a row, on pace for nearly $2.5 TRILLION this year.
Trillions in new investment. More factories. More high-paying jobs.
The Fake News and Democrats can try to distract all they want…
The results are impossible to hide.
This is the GOLDEN AGE of America, and we’re just getting started.
Yesterday he gave himself an A or A+ and said he did not understand the 42% approval rating because it was one of the greatest economies in world history. He really said all that.
Well, there is not much dispute we are the greatest economy in the world. wtf are you crying about?
Wonder what changed? Possibly the Strait of Hormuz will be opening permanently? Maybe this really was Trumps last bluff 
I've never seen the calls trade as high as they did on the close yesterday. I don't think it's because the economy is good, i think it's a massive short squeeze from people selling calls on the way down a couple days ago.
and P.S. can we talk about how bad Citadel ripped off that hedge fund dude? Griffin played him like a fiddle. Came out with the "expects fed to hike" the day before the meeting, causing hedge fund to liquidate to him. Then the fed doesn't cut and Griffin is left holding the highest quality stock at 30% discounts. Wow
I've never seen the calls trade as high as they did on the close yesterday. I don't think it's because the economy is good, i think it's a massive short squeeze from people selling calls on the way down a couple days ago.
and P.S. can we talk about how bad Citadel ripped off that hedge fund dude? Griffin played him like a fiddle. Came out with the "expects fed to hike" the day before the meeting, causing hedge fund to liquidate to him. Then the fed doesn't cut and Griffin is left holding the highest quality stock at 30% discounts. Wow
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