The economy
- Thread starter Rastafarian
- Start date
Or maybe we shouldn't start foreign wars of choice, led by T- obsessed fu.cktards who have no idea how to end them.
This report by Lacy Hunt has a lot of substance and paints a different picture from the perspective of productive output, use of capitol, GDP, the fed put and liquidity heading for 3.5 or higher inflation
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"The shift is the macro equivalent of Warren Buffett announcing he no longer believes in value investing. When the person most synonymous with a trade abandons it, everyone else in the building should probably check the exits."
cryptobriefing.com
Lacy Hunt reverses long-term bullish stance on Treasurys after 30 years, signaling trouble for risk assets
Lacy Hunt ends 30-year bullish call on long-term Treasurys, forecasting 3.5-4.5% inflation. Here's what rising yields mean for crypto and risk
cryptobriefing.com
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I believe funding for those two things are totally unrelated. Atlanta funds it's own free busses, not the federal government
Big Fed meeting today. What will Warsh do seems to be the big question.
Of course anything is possible, including what she says, I just don’t think it’s the most probable path.
I still think we will see a strong economy into the end of the year. I’m buying semi’s as much as I can right now.
Patience. It takes time for the party of peace and economic prosperity to do its thing.
Yikes!"The shift is the macro equivalent of Warren Buffett announcing he no longer believes in value investing. When the person most synonymous with a trade abandons it, everyone else in the building should probably check the exits."
Lacy Hunt reverses long-term bullish stance on Treasurys after 30 years, signaling trouble for risk assets
Lacy Hunt ends 30-year bullish call on long-term Treasurys, forecasting 3.5-4.5% inflation. Here's what rising yields mean for crypto and risk
Oracle's debt problem stems from soaring capital expenditures, negative free cash flow, and heavy borrowing to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company holds roughly $120 billion to $130 billion in debt, faces credit downgrades near junk status, and plans to raise an additional $40 billion.
The stock is hammered. The CDS on Oracle are trading at record highs. One of the best buys out there now. I loaded up at $120-$125
Micron is trading at 4x earnings. Meta is trading at its cheapest relative level in 3 years this morning.
The South Koreans were over leveraged and it caused the US stocks to get hammered as they were forced to sell to de leverage.
The result is oversold stocks. Good buying opportunity imo.
With that multiple I wonder if some investors are pricing in a decline in the chipset market as the AI companies reach some level of saturation/maturity or maybe they think the competition is going to ramp up.
Anyway, looks cheap, but sometimes there are good reasons, and in today’s world of permissible insider trading I always worry about what the other side of a trade knows.
Yes, they seem to be pricing in that memory demand will fall off a cliff in late 2027. I suppose that is the bet.
However, I am not buying that demand falls off a cliff. I think it's just getting started. And if the "cliff" bettors are wrong, then there could be a massive short squeeze to flush the shorts out. Also worth noting is that MU is prohibited from doing share buy backs until December.
Either way, they are sold out, all under contract, through 2027. That revenue is almost guaranteed, as guaranteed as contracts can get i suppose. I think the market is wrong here. I think 4x is too cheap.
And i get your sentiments regarding insider trading, but i think that is mostly for opaque markets like crypto, prediction markets, etc. Of course there is always insider trading, you will never stop it all, but in general i have faith in our equity markets.
You have bigger balls than me in this sector. My and advisor and I have agreed to stay away from individual equities no matter how juicy they appear and we just ride the indices. I am definitely losing out on upside, but I’ve moved into wealth preservation mode in my fifties.
"Mutual funds and foreign investors will likely sit on the sidelines until after the US midterm elections in November, and any benefit from a pickup in buybacks will be dimmed by fund outflows into a seasonally weak August."
“There are limited sources of ‘juice’ for rallies in the immediate term,” the bank’s traders wrote in a note to clients. “We still need to get through rubble of the past couple weeks before we can start the conversation for any meaningful re-risking.”
“There are limited sources of ‘juice’ for rallies in the immediate term,” the bank’s traders wrote in a note to clients. “We still need to get through rubble of the past couple weeks before we can start the conversation for any meaningful re-risking.”
smart man and unless you have a good pension, likely before long you'll be looking into income generating indices
Just imho.
I believe the bigger push will be tomorrow after amzn & appl later after the close. Unless the primary US interests are fully positioned, look for a vwap magnet to adjust time and price after London.
The way these markets are connected today through globalization and technology, and without a strong external force, order flow adjustments are primarily mechanical.
I believe the bigger push will be tomorrow after amzn & appl later after the close. Unless the primary US interests are fully positioned, look for a vwap magnet to adjust time and price after London.
The way these markets are connected today through globalization and technology, and without a strong external force, order flow adjustments are primarily mechanical.
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My portfolio is designed for just that. The goal is to achieve near S&P 500 level historic performance without as much downside risk. Right now it’s 65% equities (decent portion throwing off dividends) and 35% bonds with some of that in muni’s. I am not always capturing the upside, but I am missing a lot of the downside.
I take plenty of risks in my startup investing where I’m in on the ground floor and HAVE all the asymmetric information. No need to take that much risk in equities where I lack all the info.
The Dow plunged 1,153 points, suffering its worst single-day crash in over a year. The S&P 500 fell 1.5%. The Nasdaq slid into correction, wiping out over $1 TRILLION in stock market value.
Toxic triple threat causes economic confidence collapse:
• Iran war driving oil prices sky-high
• Trade tariffs crushing household affordability
• Sticky inflation keeping interest rates high despite former Fed Chair Powell's departure
For Trump, who uses the stock market as his personal scorecard, today is a humiliation.
If it motivates Trump to change course maybe it is a blessing in disguise.
The market is very Sus. Profits are down for a lot of businesses. A lot. None of what has happened since February supported the market run and the Epstein class knows the market is all Trump has left. If it corrects before the elections it will be a historic blood bath for Republicans top to bottom ballot in almost every state
The non productive use of capital with emphasis on competition by the US vs China's cooperating network of companies is a big variable for forced margin reductions.
A lot of increased force in the market today into the end of the month in a very oversold market is purely mechanical.
I have to believe that going back for a good many years, any fomc announcement that produced a ndx or spx move of 1% or greater, the following day was a significant 1 day reversal.
Options expirations, new passive index investing inflow, bearish sentiment.
I have to believe that going back for a good many years, any fomc announcement that produced a ndx or spx move of 1% or greater, the following day was a significant 1 day reversal.
Options expirations, new passive index investing inflow, bearish sentiment.
I was thinking the same thing this morning.
Essentially the South Koreans had to panic sell and the now the US managers are stepping in to buy going into the end of the month.
Stock Markets going up today. They are so manipulated by the 1% and their massive equity firms that own all corporations. They know the stock market is all that Trump has left right now and what happens if reality sets in there between now and election. It’s why Bondi brought up the Dow being 50000 during the Epstein hearing.
This is basically the Stock Market last 5 months:
We are in a 8% to 12% correction that will end after the elections, latter half of November. Be patient.
Elliott Wave
Elliott Wave
This guy could probably bankrupt a casino. Oh wait.
