Pope's SRS (performance vs schedule) average for 2 seasons at UK is 20.19

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So say Pope is here 15 years like Cal and we have already seen his ceiling...a sweet sixteen. Would you still use Cals worst losses in 15 years to compare Pope and Cal like they are on the same stratosphere?

No final fours. No sec tournament championships. No national championship. Just a blowout loss to Tennessee in the sweet sixteen.

I went through my phase where I would do the same thing. But the longer Pope is here and I see what's going on the more I realize you just cant put Pope and Cal in the same conversation.


Cals winning SEC championships close to his retirement. He's on the way out. Pope should be in his prime. I'm guilty of doing what you did l. But if I'm going to compare the two I'll have to be realistic from now on and give Cal his due respect even if I can't stand him. I can't stand Pope even more.
There is absolutely no chance he would be here that long if he doesn't advance beyond the Sweet sixteen. I seriously doubt he could make it past four seasons at the very most without advancing farther than that. I never compared him to Cal at all in that post. I am guessing I have always had way more respect for Cal than what you do.
 

Feral Manatee

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You seem totally misguided with this post. I started a thread that pointed out Donovan's record as well as 12 other coaches with NCAA titles since 1991 who had worse records than Pope their first two seasons at their respective schools.

It's a completely different universe with the transfer portal. The eras are incomparable. At a school like UK it's possible to build a contender overnight.
 
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yeehaww

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It's an era of absolute free agency. It used to take years to turn around a program.
Gotta remember he's all about proof. You gotta prove it. Even if what you said is literally true.

You gotta prove that it's a different era. You gotta prove that NIl changes everything.

You gotta prove that the Kum leaking out his arse isn't his own
 
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It's an era of absolute free agency. It used to take years to turn around a program.
Given the financial situation do you think it would be more or less likely for UK to ever load up a team like 2015 again? Just because we in theory are allowed to buy a team doesn't mean that it is any easier to assemble or retain talent at a place like UK than it used to be.
 
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Since many posters wanted to point out that Pope had coached 9 years before getting the UK job I will provide full career for all these coaches though I still consider their prior jobs to be much less accurate of a comparison.

This is the first two seasons in which they matched or exceeded the two year average SRS of 20.19 for their total career

Mark Pope season 10 and 11

Billy Donovan season 6 and 7

Coach K season 10 and 11

Nolan Richardson season 10 and 11

Danny Hurley season 13 and 14

Todd Golden season 6 and 7

Scott Drew season 18 and 19

Tony Bennett season 9 and 10

Jay Wright season 20 and 21

Jim Calhoun season 22 and 23

Gary Williams season 20 and 21

Lute Olson season 14 and 15

Jim Harrick never matched it in 23 seasons

Rick Pitino season 11 and 12

Kevin Ollie never matched in 6 seasons

Tubby Smith season 7 and 8

Bill Self season 7 and 8

Roy Williams season 2 and 3

Dusty May season 7 and 8

John Calipari season 7 and 8

Boeheim, Smith, and Izzo remained unchanged since those were their first HC jobs.

So out of 22 National Championship coaches since 1991 9 accomplished this faster than Pope for their career with two never doing it all.
 
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YourGovernor

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Since many posters wanted to point out that Pope had coached 9 years before getting the UK job I will provide full career for all these coaches though I still consider their prior jobs to be much less accurate of a comparison.

This is the first two seasons in which they matched or exceeded the two year average SRS of 20.19 for their total career

Mark Pope season 10 and 11

Billy Donovan season 6 and 7

Coach K season 10 and 11

Nolan Richardson season 10 and 11

Danny Hurley season 13 and 14

Todd Golden season 6 and 7

Scott Drew season 18 and 19

Tony Bennett season 9 and 10

Jay Wright season 20 and 21

Jim Calhoun season 22 and 23

Gary Williams season 20 and 21

Lute Olson season 14 and 15

Jim Harrick never matched it in 23 seasons

Rick Pitino season 11 and 12

Kevin Ollie never matched in 6 seasons

Tubby Smith season 7 and 8

Bill Self season 7 and 8

Roy Williams season 2 and 3

Dusty May season 7 and 8

John Calipari season 7 and 8

Boeheim, Smith, and Izzo remained unchanged since were their first HC jobs.

So out of 22 National Championship coaches since 1991 9 accomplished this faster than Pope for their career.
I agree with the first 35 minutes of your post
 
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mjj_2K

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Since many posters wanted to point out that Pope had coached 9 years before getting the UK job I will provide full career for all these coaches though I still consider their prior jobs to be much less accurate of a comparison.
This is the first two seasons in which they matched or exceeded the two year average SRS of 20.19 for their total career

Mark Pope season 10 and 11

Billy Donovan season 6 and 7

Coach K season 10 and 11

Nolan Richardson season 10 and 11

Danny Hurley season 13 and 14

Todd Golden season 6 and 7

Scott Drew season 18 and 19

Tony Bennett season 9 and 10

Jay Wright season 20 and 21

Jim Calhoun season 22 and 23

Gary Williams season 20 and 21

Lute Olson season 14 and 15

Jim Harrick never matched it in 23 seasons

Rick Pitino season 11 and 12

Kevin Ollie never matched in 6 seasons

Tubby Smith season 7 and 8

Bill Self season 7 and 8

Roy Williams season 2 and 3

Dusty May season 7 and 8

John Calipari season 7 and 8

Boeheim, Smith, and Izzo remained unchanged since those were their first HC jobs.

So out of 22 National Championship coaches since 1991 9 accomplished this faster than Pope for their career with two never doing it all.
There's a whole lot of apples to oranges going on here (Jim Calhoun spent 14 seasons at Northeastern and Jay Wright 7 at Hofstra, as obvious examples), but beyond that, some things just leap out.

Rick Pitino spent 5 seasons at BU, then made the FF his 2nd season at Providence.
Nolan Richardson spent 4 years at Tulsa and won over 76% of his games there.
Billy Donovan was at Marshall for 2 years, then had Florida in a FF in year 4.
And Kevin Ollie never matched Pope in this stat? Uhh, OK, but that's like the ultimate "and so what?" He won a title. It might have been a fluke, but he did win it, and he beat (consecutively) Jay Wright, Fred Hoiberg, Tom Izzo, Billy Donovan, and John Calipari to do so.

Your stat argues that Pope has not been completely incompetent, and I can buy that to a point. But he's done nothing in his career that sets him above a big chunk of his peers. Nothing that stands out as "oh, this guy is an elite coach". And because of that, he needs to do something along those lines basically right now.
 
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Dr.LutherSan

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Have you doomers forgotten Mark Pope out‑coached BOTH Rick Pitino and John Calipari last season? Out‑coached them. Out‑schemed them. Out‑executed them.

Because I don’t hear a single one of the RP & Cal lovers bringing that up anymore.
Funny how that works.
Calipari beat him with a worse team the season before. Do we need to go through the coaches that out-coached, out-schemed, and out-executed Pope this season? Heck, we were a couple seconds away from Matt McMahon doing that.
 
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There's a whole lot of apples to oranges going on here (Jim Calhoun spent 14 seasons at Northeastern and Jay Wright 7 at Hofstra, as obvious examples), but beyond that, some things just leap out.

Rick Pitino spent 5 seasons at BU, then made the FF his 2nd season at Providence.
Nolan Richardson spent 4 years at Tulsa and won over 76% of his games there.
Billy Donovan was at Marshall for 2 years, then had Florida in a FF in year 4.
And Kevin Ollie never matched Pope in this stat? Uhh, OK, but that's like the ultimate "and so what?" He won a title. It might have been a fluke, but he did win it, and he beat (consecutively) Jay Wright, Fred Hoiberg, Tom Izzo, Billy Donovan, and John Calipari to do so.

Your stat argues that Pope has not been completely incompetent, and I can buy that to a point. But he's done nothing in his career that sets him above a big chunk of his peers. Nothing that stands out as "oh, this guy is an elite coach". And because of that, he needs to do something along those lines basically right now.
This a perfect example of why I originally went with only their first two seasons at the school they won a title. Pope's first two jobs were at lower opportunity schools as well. Utah Valley ST didn't even start their program until 2005 and BYU had only ever had sparse success. Other posters kept wanting to point out Pope had coached 9 seasons before he got here is why this was added.

I had a list of thirteen of the last 22 championship coaches that had a record worse than Pope has at UK their first two seasons at the schools they won it at. Nolan was the only one who had a winning percentage much higher than Pope's at their previous stops and many were lower. Nolan did this against weak schedules is why his SRS did not register until season 10 and 11.

You missed the point completely. I never tried to say he was an elite coach. I was just pointing out that there are elite coaches who were not doing elite coach things through early or even deeper portions of their career so we can not definitively say that Pope does not have the ability to ascend his level in time. I am not even claiming that he will just that is possible and there are examples to support this.
 
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SleepingPills

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This a perfect example of why I originally went with only their first two seasons at the school they won a title. Pope's first two jobs were at lower opportunity schools as well. Utah Valley ST didn't even start their program until 2005 and BYU had only ever had sparse success. Other posters kept wanting to point out Pope had coached 9 seasons before he got here is why this was added.

I had a list of thirteen of the last 22 championship coaches that had a record worse than Pope has at UK their first two seasons at the schools they won it at. Nolan was the only one who had a winning percentage much higher than Pope's at their previous stops and many were lower. Nolan did this against weak schedules is why his SRS did not register until season 10 and 11.

You missed the point completely. I never tried to say he was an elite coach. I was just pointing out that there are elite coaches who were not doing elite coach things through early or even deeper portions of their career so we can not definitively say that Pope does not have the ability to ascend his level in time. I am not even claiming that he will just that is possible and there are examples to support this.
You'll go with whatever fits Paul s boomer narrative.
 

mjj_2K

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This a perfect example of why I originally went with only their first two seasons at the school they won a title. Pope's first two jobs were at lower opportunity schools as well. Utah Valley ST didn't even start their program until 2005 and BYU had only ever had sparse success. Other posters kept wanting to point out Pope had coached 9 seasons before he got here is why this was added.

I had a list of thirteen of the last 22 championship coaches that had a record worse than Pope has at UK their first two seasons at the schools they won it at. Nolan was the only one who had a winning percentage much higher than Pope's at their previous stops and many were lower. Nolan did this against weak schedules is why his SRS did not register until season 10 and 11.

You missed the point completely. I never tried to say he was an elite coach. I was just pointing out that there are elite coaches who were not doing elite coach things through early or even deeper portions of their career so we can not definitively say that Pope does not have the ability to ascend his level in time. I am not even claiming that he will just that is possible and there are examples to support this.
Except they DID do elite things really quickly when the opportunity arose.

Your claim holds up only if you take this SRS thing as the be-all end-all of coaching evaluation. And I'm sorry, I don't.

Given UK's resources, Joe B Hall went to the NCAA final in year 3. Rick Pitino went 22-6 and finished in the top 10 in year 2 at UK, despite UK being on probation. Tubby Smith won the title his first year. John Calipari won 35 games.

I'm sorry, Pope simply has to do a lot more in year 3, and that doesn't seem to be on the horizon. Good not great in year 1 followed by bad but not terrible in year 2, after a decent but nothing special 9 year career prior, does not merit a year 4 unless year 3 shows something way better than what preceded it.
 
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Except they DID do elite things really quickly when the opportunity arose.

Your claim holds up only if you take this SRS thing as the be-all end-all of coaching evaluation. And I'm sorry, I don't.

Given UK's resources, Joe B Hall went to the NCAA final in year 3. Rick Pitino went 22-6 and finished in the top 10 in year 2 at UK, despite UK being on probation. Tubby Smith won the title his first year. John Calipari won 35 games.

I'm sorry, Pope simply has to do a lot more in year 3, and that doesn't seem to be on the horizon. Good not great in year 1 followed by bad but not terrible in year 2, after a decent but nothing special 9 year career prior, does not merit a year 4 unless year 3 shows something way better than what preceded it.
You guys are like a broken record of negativity. You also like pretending like I said things I haven't said and ignore things I have said repeatedly. When did I ever say anything about year 4? I have also said many times things must improve in the near future or he will be gone. You do understand I have nothing to do with his employment status?

I have pointed out facts and provided unbiased sources to back this up. I give you raw numbers and you make up insinuations to attribute to me that I didn't actually make in most cases. How many of our previous coaches took over with only one player on the roster who was the quality of Travis Perry? You all are all about nuance when attacking Pope but many of you totally reject nuance if it favors Pope. Injuries and schedule have obviously curtailed his efforts as far as records go.

SRS does not make consideration for injuries but does consider schedule. His two seasons rank #19 and #31 in the 76 seasons which they list this metric in school history. This is not nearly as bad as it is made out to be. He has played the two most difficult rated schedules in school history.
 
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I could pick this argument apart blind folded, but if you need me to instead of doing it yourself, your not adept with men’s CBB enough either way.

But, here’s a bone to chew on… N.I.L. 🙄
Which has never actually been established to be working in our favor and may actually be working against us for all you know at this point. It is not the magic wand that obliterates all facts that you imagine it to be. The Herald Leader which has many times printed garbage to the detriment of UK put out the 22 million dollar myth while claiming it to be the highest in the nation. This has been used relentlessly as fuel on the fire of negativity.
 
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BoysCow

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Which has never actually been established to be working in our favor and may actually be working against us for all you know at this point. It is not the magic wand that obliterates all facts that you imagine it to be. The Herald Leader which has many times printed garbage to the detriment of UK put out the 22 million dollar myth while claiming it to be the highest in the nation. This has been used relentlessly as fuel on the fire of negativity.
You have terrible arguments...I see it isn't just from me .you never actually prove points...you have some decent opinions....but the way you talk like it's facts is hilarious. Let me buy you a beer Paul. I'll even drink it for you.
 

mjj_2K

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You guys are like a broken record of negativity. You also like pretending like I said things I haven't said and ignore things I have said repeatedly. When did I ever say anything about year 4? I have also said many times things must improve in the near future or he will be gone. You do understand I have nothing to do with his employment status?

I have pointed out facts and provided unbiased sources to back this up. I give you raw numbers and you make up insinuations to attribute to me that I didn't actually make in most cases. How many of our previous coaches took over with only one player on the roster who was the quality of Travis Perry? You all are all about nuance when attacking Pope but many of you totally reject nuance if it favors Pope. Injuries and schedule have obviously curtailed his efforts as far as records go.

SRS does not make consideration for injuries but does consider schedule. His two seasons rank #19 and #31 in the 76 seasons which they list this metric in school history. This is not nearly as bad as it is made out to be. He has played the two most difficult rated schedules in school history.
That both ended with middling SEC finishes, before Saturday of the SEC Tournament, with a complete blowout loss and not complete blowout but never really close loss, and non-competitive losses in the NCAA Tournament.

SRS is basically saying "The SEC is so much better now than it ever has been". Probably true. But UK hasn't been one of the best SEC teams the last 2 years, And UK has been to the FF 17 times and fell just short even more than that. A system that ranks a 24-12 team that lost in the Sweet 16 (badly) as the 19th best season in school history HAS to be putting way too much emphasis on perceived strength of schedule.
 

mjj_2K

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And this whole SRS thing leads me to some questions. If it is only evaluating seasons starting with or directly after 1951, how does it rank 2024-2025 in comparison to any of the 13 seasons UK made the FF since then?

And how does it compare it to these other years: 53-54, 69-70, 76-77, 85-86, 91-92, 94-95, 02-03, 09-10, and 16-17? Because if it ranks 24-25 ahead of any of the FF seasons or the additional ones I mentioned (which it must), it is a tool that is basically doing nothing but evaluating perceived strength of schedule while completely missing the forest for the trees.
 
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#1 cat fan

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I'm not going to rag on numbers, and appreciate attempts at objective evaluation, but I think those numbers are missing the baffling inconsistency and number of no-show performances we've seen in 2 seasons. 26 losses in 2 years is magnified by the fact that 14 of them were by double-digits.
True Matt
 

truthteller

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Just shows stats dont tell the whole story. Win something that matters in year 3 or fire him.
This. I appreciate the thought in these stats, but just looking at stats and numbers got us here. Pope himself said the goal is winning championships. So if that doesn't happen these numbers or any of the other moneyball numbers they spin don't either.
 

JonathanW2

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Just shows stats dont tell the whole story. Win something that matters in year 3 or fire him.
When properly understood, STATISTICS can tell a LOT MORE than most lay-people realize (full disclosure, I am a Statistician). They can take into account many contributing/confounding factors that affect outcomes. In the end, to most fans (me too) championships is what matters. Although with the championship determined in a OAD setup like it is, LUCK certainly plays a big role (more often than not the BEST team across the season does NOT win the championship).

So I have come to the conclusion what really matters more is being one of the "contending teams" who would be considered one of the 6 to 10 teams favorited to win the championship. Clearly we have not been that the past 2 years. But we might had been in year 1, had the injuries not kept pilling up on us. Last year injuries were obviously a big factor too. Although I think the make-up of that team was flawed.
I can't say I'm loving the make-up of next year's roster either, although staying healthy AND many guys "stepping up" could make them a contender. But a LOT of things have to "go right" for that to happen.
 
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Which has never actually been established to be working in our favor and may actually be working against us for all you know at this point. It is not the magic wand that obliterates all facts that you imagine it to be. The Herald Leader which has many times printed garbage to the detriment of UK put out the 22 million dollar myth while claiming it to be the highest in the nation. This has been used relentlessly as fuel on the fire of negativity.
Has anyone at UK denied the 22M claim? NO is the answer.
 
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And this whole SRS thing leads me to some questions. If it is only evaluating seasons starting with or directly after 1951, how does it rank 2024-2025 in comparison to any of the 13 seasons UK made the FF since then?

And how does it compare it to these other years: 53-54, 69-70, 76-77, 85-86, 91-92, 94-95, 02-03, 09-10, and 16-17? Because if it ranks 24-25 ahead of any of the FF seasons or the additional ones I mentioned (which it must), it is a tool that is basically doing nothing but evaluating perceived strength of schedule while completely missing the forest for the trees.
I have provided the link many times. It should be easy enough for you to answer all these questions for yourself. It adds no extra weight to tournament games it only considers quality of opponent and margin. '95 is fourth all time despite no final four for example.

 

mjj_2K

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I have provided the link many times. It should be easy enough for you to answer all these questions for yourself. It adds no extra weight to tournament games it only considers quality of opponent and margin. '95 is fourth all time despite no final four for example.

Thanks, now I have.

The 24-25 team was apparently better than the 1978 title team. And Cal's 35-3 first year. And the 92 team that won the SEC tourney and then lost in OT to the defending champ in the Elite 8. And the 2011 FF team. And the 1984 FF team. And the 1966 FF team. And the 2014 FF team. And the 1970 team that went 26-2. And the 1958 title team.

I know it's not your stat, and I'll leave it alone from here by just noting that if I came up with a formula that came to that conclusion I would take a really, really, really hard look at how I was weighting certain things in the formula.
 
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Thanks, now I have.

The 24-25 team was apparently better than the 1978 title team. And Cal's 35-3 first year. And the 92 team that won the SEC tourney and then lost in OT to the defending champ in the Elite 8. And the 2011 FF team. And the 1984 FF team. And the 1966 FF team. And the 2014 FF team. And the 1970 team that went 26-2. And the 1958 title team.

I know it's not your stat, and I'll leave it alone from here by just noting that if I came up with a formula that came to that conclusion I would take a really, really, really hard look at how I was weighting certain things in the formula.
I never said it meant one team was better than another. It does provide a few curious anomalies due to difficulty of schedule and point differentials. There are no bonus points for how far you advance in tournaments. It is strictly a measure of how you fared against who you played. It isn't perfect but it is not biased and it is not totally worthless. It clearly emphasis how historically difficult Pope's first two schedules have been.

If you wish to argue it gives too much weight to SOS you may well have a solid point. I have pointed out that we have had a SOS above 10.5 9 times and have lost at least ten games every time so it definitely does have a significant impact. 14.04 in 24-25 is far and away our toughest schedule ever and last season also rates much tougher than any other of our schedules.
 
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Skyguyb27

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I'm not going to rag on numbers, and appreciate attempts at objective evaluation, but I think those numbers are missing the baffling inconsistency and number of no-show performances we've seen in 2 seasons. 26 losses in 2 years is magnified by the fact that 14 of them were by double-digits.
Another forgotten stat is how many teams laughed after playing UK saying they knew they’d quit.