Can we just for once get a friggin SNOWstorm. What was gonna be a fun Sunday of snow, good food and drinks, NFL Championship games will now we ruined by worrying about downed tree limbs, down power lines and power outages. We got coldest air in place for years and still getting mixing mess
OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
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Well, we're now ~24 hours from the start of the event and we've seen the 18Z, 0Z and 6Z models since the quoted post above and with most models showing less snow and more sleet than the NWS was showing in its forecast at 1 pm yesterday, the NWS-Philly and NYC finally adjusted snowfall decently downward towards what many other forecasters have been showing, i.e., 8-12" for areas generally S of 78, especially Lee Goldberg/AccuWeather (the NWS did bump down a little at 5 pm yesterday, but this is more substantial of a drop). Even the very sleety NAM backed off its 3-5" of snow then 2-3" sleet forecast for much of CNJ/SNJ at 6Z and has 5-8" snow there now plus substantial sleet (~2"), which is still very impactful (about 12-14" worth of 10:1 snow, by mass). There are also still models showing 10-14" of snow, with 13-15:1 ratios for most of the area N of 276/195, so snowier solutions than 8-12" are still on the table. Note that the NWS-NYC didn't change their forecast at all really, as all of their counties are near/N of 78.
Lee's map from last night is also below and has been very close to my thinking with the exception that I wouldn't have anywhere <6" (especially the NJ coast north of Toms River) as I think that initial thump of snow will be at least 6" everywhere as per almost all of the models, but the 8-12" amounts for the entire 95 corridor from DE through NYC and in PA/NJ up to 78 seems like a pretty good forecast. I do like the NWS keeping SNJ in the 6-8" swath SE of a line from about Middletown DE to LBI (Lee has 4-8" for most of that area- like the 6" min better). In addition, the NWS is predicting up to 0.3" of ice accretion near/along 95, especially SW of a Trenton to Red Bank line. NWS has me at 11.9" of snow/sleet, which I think is still a little high, so I'll go with 10.4". Below is a summary of the updated warnings and the NWS discussion is also below.
NWS-Philly Counties
A few bulleted comments below.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
623 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026
The main changes from the daytime package were cutting snow totals
south and east of I-95 as the trend has been a touch west with the
track of the low, resulting in more of a sleet/freezing rain mix and
even plain rain along the coast. Snow totals were slightly reduced
for other areas as well, but not by much. VERY IMPORTANT to stress
that while snowfall totals have been reduced slightly, the impacts
remain the same. The combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain
will result in MAJOR impacts and that thinking has not changed for
days now.
Snowfall envelops the whole region by daybreak Sunday. An area of
strong mid-level frontogenesis will lift northward as the morning
goes on, and all areas should see a very good thump of snow before a
changeover to sleet or freezing rain. Snowfall rates over 1" per
hour are likely (60-80%), mainly for New Jersey and Pennsylvania
tomorrow morning into the early afternoon, with even a low chance
(20%) for rates over 2" per hour. As the day progresses, a warm nose
aloft moves in from the southeast. After looking at some model
soundings, currently thinking the mix line gets right to about
Reading and Allentown in PA and right up to I-78 in NJ. Snowfall
amounts will be dependent on how fast or slow that warm air
advection aloft is. Given how good the NAM is in these cases, the
forecast generally relies on that temperature profile, but not as
aggressive, with the thinking that the impressive rates before the
changeover can hold back the warm nose aloft. It will be very
interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow morning. Important to
note that guidance generally underestimated the strength of the cold
airmass this morning. Does it matter? That is the question that will
be figured out via mesoanalysis as the event begins.
At onset, snow ratios will be around 15-18:1, decreasing to around 7-
10:1 by the early afternoon (and even lower where sleet begins) as
warmer air aloft moves in. This will result in a fluffy snow
texture. However, add in sleet and/or measurable ice on top of that?
It could be very difficult to remove from roads, driveways, and
sidewalks. This is mainly why we are stressing major impacts,
regardless of snow totals. There is high confidence in at least 6"
of snow, and sleet/ice on top of that will just exacerbate impacts
(and most areas are highly probable to see more than 6").
In terms of specific amounts, the forecast has 12-16" with localized
amounts up to 18" for the I-78 corridor on north. These areas should
primarily stay snow. From New Castle County, DE out to LBI and
points north up to the I-78 corridor, amounts of 8-12" are expected
with a prolonged period of mixing occurring. South of that line, 4-
8" are expected and most locations in this zone likely even see some
plain rain.
With a frigid cold airmass overhead and a strong push of warm air
aloft, there is a growing threat for freezing rain and ice
accumulation. The corridor of highest amounts has shifted southeast
a bit, with the current forecast having a stripe of 0.25"-0.4" over
the Eastern Shore, extending into central DE, and continuing into
Cumberland/Salem/Gloucester/and part of Camden County in NJ. The I-
95 corridor, once the focus of the higher amounts, has trended down
a bit, though still somewhat significant - around a tenth to two
tenths of an inch of ice. The question is going to be what the depth
of the warm nose is. If it is thinner, expect more sleet. If it is
deeper, then more freezing rain and ice is likely. There is higher
confidence in the highest amounts landing somewhere between the I-95
corridor and Garden State Parkway in central and southern NJ and
then somewhere over central and northern Delmarva. These ice
accumulations come AFTER anywhere from 4-8/8-12" of snow fall. This
will only heighten the impacts, regardless of exactly how much
falls.
Lee's map from last night is also below and has been very close to my thinking with the exception that I wouldn't have anywhere <6" (especially the NJ coast north of Toms River) as I think that initial thump of snow will be at least 6" everywhere as per almost all of the models, but the 8-12" amounts for the entire 95 corridor from DE through NYC and in PA/NJ up to 78 seems like a pretty good forecast. I do like the NWS keeping SNJ in the 6-8" swath SE of a line from about Middletown DE to LBI (Lee has 4-8" for most of that area- like the 6" min better). In addition, the NWS is predicting up to 0.3" of ice accretion near/along 95, especially SW of a Trenton to Red Bank line. NWS has me at 11.9" of snow/sleet, which I think is still a little high, so I'll go with 10.4". Below is a summary of the updated warnings and the NWS discussion is also below.
NWS-Philly Counties
- For Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton, the warning is for 11-15" of snow/sleet, but no freezing rain (ZR)
- For counties in PA/NJ south of 78 (except coastal counties south of Ocean), i.e.,Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Chester-Montgomery (and Newcastle/Kent in DE), the warnings are for 7-13" of snow and sleet with up to 0.3" of freezing rain accretion, especially SW of Trenton as per the ice map below.
- For Atlantic/Cape May counties and southern DE, the warning is for 4-8" of snow/sleet plus about 0.1" ZR
- For W. Passaic, the entire Hudson Valley and the coastal CT counties, the warning is for 12-16" of snow
- For NENJ (Union/Essex/Hudson/Bergen/E Passaic), NYC and LI, the warning is for 10-14" snow/sleet plus a light glaze of ZR
A few bulleted comments below.
- Expect the snow to come in like a wall after 15-20 minutes of flurries and remain heavy (1-2" per hour at times) from 4-7 am (depending on start time) through 2-4 pm for most before any changeover to sleet.
- It's going to be in the teens for the entire storm N of 78 and S of 78 temps will generally only warm up into the mid-20s with the arrival of sleet/freezing rain (maybe at or above 32F with plain rain for far SENJ only).
- With total precip (QPF) amounts generally between 1-1.5", most areas south of 78 will see substantial amounts of sleet, i.e., 1-2" worth. Let's do an example of what this might mean, i.e., something like 9" of snow at 13:1 ratios (0.7" QPF) and 1.7" of 3:1 ratio sleet (0.5" QPF) for a total depth of 10" (after a bit of compaction from the sleet), topped off by 0.1" of ZR for a total QPF of 1.3".
- If this 1.3" of QPF were all 13:1 snow, that would be 17" of snow, but in this case it's about 10" of depth, which will have a top half maybe that quickly becomes very compacted and icy after the freezing rain is absorbed and freezes and being the same mass in both cases, will be equally tough to drive in, shovel and plow, i.e., very similar impacts - all snow is just much prettier.
- For folks who might get 0.1" or more of freezing rain with surface temps in the 20s, I'd highly recommend leaving a few inches of snow on your paved driveway/sidewalk until the freezing rain is done; this allows the snow/sleet to absorb the ZR rather than allowing it to form an icy glaze on your driveway/sidewalk - it'll then just be a slushy few inches to shovel.
- On the flip side if you get a decent amount of sleet and some ZR, don't wait 12 hours to shovel as much of it'll become frozen solid.
- After this storm, temps likely won't make it above 25F through next weekend with some nights having lows around 0F (or below), and beyond that we might not see temps get above 32F until about 2/7 or so - and there are some more chances for snow (2/2?)
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
623 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026
The main changes from the daytime package were cutting snow totals
south and east of I-95 as the trend has been a touch west with the
track of the low, resulting in more of a sleet/freezing rain mix and
even plain rain along the coast. Snow totals were slightly reduced
for other areas as well, but not by much. VERY IMPORTANT to stress
that while snowfall totals have been reduced slightly, the impacts
remain the same. The combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain
will result in MAJOR impacts and that thinking has not changed for
days now.
Snowfall envelops the whole region by daybreak Sunday. An area of
strong mid-level frontogenesis will lift northward as the morning
goes on, and all areas should see a very good thump of snow before a
changeover to sleet or freezing rain. Snowfall rates over 1" per
hour are likely (60-80%), mainly for New Jersey and Pennsylvania
tomorrow morning into the early afternoon, with even a low chance
(20%) for rates over 2" per hour. As the day progresses, a warm nose
aloft moves in from the southeast. After looking at some model
soundings, currently thinking the mix line gets right to about
Reading and Allentown in PA and right up to I-78 in NJ. Snowfall
amounts will be dependent on how fast or slow that warm air
advection aloft is. Given how good the NAM is in these cases, the
forecast generally relies on that temperature profile, but not as
aggressive, with the thinking that the impressive rates before the
changeover can hold back the warm nose aloft. It will be very
interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow morning. Important to
note that guidance generally underestimated the strength of the cold
airmass this morning. Does it matter? That is the question that will
be figured out via mesoanalysis as the event begins.
At onset, snow ratios will be around 15-18:1, decreasing to around 7-
10:1 by the early afternoon (and even lower where sleet begins) as
warmer air aloft moves in. This will result in a fluffy snow
texture. However, add in sleet and/or measurable ice on top of that?
It could be very difficult to remove from roads, driveways, and
sidewalks. This is mainly why we are stressing major impacts,
regardless of snow totals. There is high confidence in at least 6"
of snow, and sleet/ice on top of that will just exacerbate impacts
(and most areas are highly probable to see more than 6").
In terms of specific amounts, the forecast has 12-16" with localized
amounts up to 18" for the I-78 corridor on north. These areas should
primarily stay snow. From New Castle County, DE out to LBI and
points north up to the I-78 corridor, amounts of 8-12" are expected
with a prolonged period of mixing occurring. South of that line, 4-
8" are expected and most locations in this zone likely even see some
plain rain.
With a frigid cold airmass overhead and a strong push of warm air
aloft, there is a growing threat for freezing rain and ice
accumulation. The corridor of highest amounts has shifted southeast
a bit, with the current forecast having a stripe of 0.25"-0.4" over
the Eastern Shore, extending into central DE, and continuing into
Cumberland/Salem/Gloucester/and part of Camden County in NJ. The I-
95 corridor, once the focus of the higher amounts, has trended down
a bit, though still somewhat significant - around a tenth to two
tenths of an inch of ice. The question is going to be what the depth
of the warm nose is. If it is thinner, expect more sleet. If it is
deeper, then more freezing rain and ice is likely. There is higher
confidence in the highest amounts landing somewhere between the I-95
corridor and Garden State Parkway in central and southern NJ and
then somewhere over central and northern Delmarva. These ice
accumulations come AFTER anywhere from 4-8/8-12" of snow fall. This
will only heighten the impacts, regardless of exactly how much
falls.
Where do you live? I'm with you - sucks to have such cold air and not get all snow, but that's life in the 95 corridor in NJ...
Not far from you, I’m in Piscataway, bout 3.5 miles north of the RAC
Mostly sleet - just posted the NWS maps for snow/sleet and ice and the ice component is fairly small, except for areas near 95 and SW of Trenton, where up to 0.3" of freezing rain could accrete.
Tomer is great - found him as a grad student posting on 33andrain and have posted his stuff on occasion. Not fond of BAM though - way too self-promoting, especially now congratulating himself on a great forecast when the first flake hasn't hit yet. Still might be some curveballs, i.e., we might get a very sleety outcome like the NAM was showing or we could still get a very snowy outcome like the GFS has been showing (and the HRRR now is). We're on the knife's edge on this one and likely won't know the outcome until we see the sleet line moving towards us on the dual pol radar, lol.
Great to see this forecast. Last winter the snowshoes stayed in the garage. Next week I will whip them out.
Might want ice skates with all the sleet and freezing rain, depending on where you live.
Still getting my 11”-15” in Succasunny so I’m happy. Feel bad for the “weenies” in CNJ(wherever that is)
I can remember when I was a real little kid a few storms where a sheet of ice formed on top of the snow and we could walk/slide on it.
Good for you, back at Rutgers in the 80s, heard some refer to your town as "succawhat?"
12Z NAM, HRRR and HRW-FV3, three of the main American mesoscale models - so different, although most of the models look more like the snowier HRRR/FV3, so far, so the NAM is an outlier (but can't be completely dismissed as it's right in sleet situations once in awhile). Also, if you want to know how much sleet we'd get in the NAM scenario, subtract the snow from the first graphic from the 4th graphic (the Tropical Tidbits algorithm counts sleet as 10:1 ratio snow, while Pivotal ignores all sleet) - that's about 3" of sleet on top of 5-6" of snow. This is why forecasting winter storms in this area, in particular, is so complex and difficult.
That was ROUGH today! I'm in the shore area so it was extra windy today. Holy smokes! We got it done though!
Too bad about the wind. I'm in Manhattan and it wasn't all that bad because for once there was almost no wind. Surprised me!
12Z model runs are in and we're still in the same spot with one significant outlier, the NAM showing only 4-6" of snow for EPA/CNJ between 78 and 276/195) and for areas close to 95 from Philly to NYC, followed by about 2" of sleet and 0.1" of ZR (freezing rain). Most of the rest of the models are showing a front end thump of 6-9" of 10:1 snow, which should be about 8-13" at 14:1 ratios (Cantore thinks 20:1 by the way), followed by about 1" of sleet and 0.1-0.2" of ZR (about 1.2" precip total) with an outlier or two on the snowier side with up to 10-11" of 10:1 snow. So the NWS 7-13" forecast for this area looks solid to me.
And for those hugging the NAM, for the last 36 hours every run showed zero snow in Little Rock AR and they now have 6" of snow - there's a reason why that model is being discontinued this year. See the NAM graphic below. Doesn't "prove" the NAM will be wrong in our case, but it certainly reduces confidence in that model being used in a similar setup with warm air overrunning very cold air.
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0.2 miles of month old trail between Summit and Scotch Plains SW corner of Coles and Glenside.
Did not get out. Had to split and stack enough wood close to house so we have enough to burn through the week.
I’m just going to plug in my truck if the power goes out
New NWS map and warnings are posted...
Got stuff to do, so this will actually be brief as there's not a lot more to say. Looking at the new snowfall map and warnings, it seems odd that NWS lowered warnings so much, especially for CNJ, changing the warning from 7-13" to 6-10" for Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer (and the 95-bordering counties in SEPA/SNJ). They could've just keep it at Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer and SEPA and at 8-12" and put the SNJ counties at 5-8" with Monmouth/Ocean, since the CNJ/EPA counties are all in the 8-12" swath.
I'm also missing something on the further reductions as almost every model shows 6-8" of 10:1 snow for CNJ (8-11" with 13:1 ratios) and some show 8-11" of 10:1 snow and the NBM is still showing 9-10" (at model ratio); only the 12Z NAM shows 4-6" of 10:1 and the brand new 18Z NAM that just came out shows 5-7" of 10:1 snow (6-8" at 13:1). And then add another 1"+ of sleet and sticking with their 7-13" range (or 8-12" which I like better) would've been fine, IMO. In addition, the rest of the 18Z models, so far have ticked a bit snowier.
The Poconos, Lehigh Valley and Sussex Warren are all under warnings for 10-13. From the NWS-NYC, they kept W. Passaic, the Hudson Valley and the coastal CT counties at 10-16" and lowered the NENJ/NYC/LI counties from 10-14" to 8-12". Obviously, with precip mostly unchanged and lowered snowfall forecasts, the difference will be sleet with 1-2" of sleet probably being common for all counties south of 78. The freezing rain (ZR) forecast was lowered a bit to 0.1-0.2" for areas near 95 in CNJ/SNJ (and Monmouth) with <0.1" elsewhere.
Also, as I've said since their first map came out, they should've started with 8-12" and adjusted upwards if needed; starting at 12-18" for everyone was a recipe for walking it back for 2+ days. Oh well.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=OKX&wwa=winter storm warning
So we’re getting a dusting with cold rain on top?
Yup, don't know why they were so bullish in the beginning when all the trends showed the opposite. I knew the blue 5" would work it's way into Jersey. I'm expecting more of it if they adjust again. Will this end early enough tomorrow evening to shovel tomorrow?
The
Yup - we’ll see how it actually plays out, but I’ve learned one thing over the last few years: In central NJ, more than 2 days before the storm the models are really only useful for identifying snow MIGHT be coming. Realistic forecast amounts seem to only come 6-12 hours before the start (and those don’t always play out either).
18Z models are all out and they were generally (Euro/AIFS/RGEM/UK/CMC/HRDPS/HRRR) a bit snowier/less sleety than at 6Z and 12Z generally showing 8-12" before any sleet at 10:1 (which would be 10-15" at 13:1 ratios) and most of the pros I read (and I) feel more confidence in an 8-12" snowfall for 95 from Philly to NYC and all of CNJ/EPA N of 276/195. The two exceptions were the NAM/GFS, which showed 5-6" (at 10:1) for CNJ (6-8" at 13:1 ratios). I'll definitely take the Euro/AIFS/RGEM/UK/CMC/HRRR over NAM/GFS every day of the week (with the GFS the worst, going from most snowy to least snowy over the last 24 hours). We'll see soon I guess.
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Thank goodness we don't have anywhere to go Monday morning.
Wow ! This post didn't hold up too well.There will be no storms as I prepared my snowblower for the season…and it started on ONE pull. Didn’t even need the electric assist.
BUT….if there is a storm, it won’t be talked about in this thread.
It will and a decent amount for you and then a decent amount of sleet and might end as plain rain, but the damage will have been done. And you'll be back below 32F (if you rain) by 4 am, so things will start freezing a few hours after that.
Well said - so many storms aren't well understood until 1-2 days beforehand if that - some are gameday storms, like this will be in part, i.e., we know we're going to get a lot of frozen precip area wide, but we don't have a great handle on the precip type south of 78, apart from the first 6 hour snow thump, which is a given. However, major threats are usually well identified 4-5 days out or further, as in this case, as I started talking about this one seriously on Sunday night (and mentioned it 3 days before that.
Take serious offense to “Got stuff to do”. This is literally your Super Bowl. You wouldn’t see Al Michaels saying he has to tend to his vineyard over broadcasting the Super Bowl. Do better. Updates every hour or so. Anything less is ********
Some people do which is curious why people salivate and proclaim they would rather have over a foot compared to 6?