Do you think this is a one time feeding frenzy, or will the TP shuffle become a permanent fixture and change recruiting given kids will trade up first chance they get?
Just looking at the kids in the portal, I think this year will be a high water mark and subsequent years will have lower overall volume.
There are 1490 kids in the portal right now.... and 403 (27%) of them would have ordinarily been in their final year of eligibility this year. Without the covid waiver for an extra year of eligibility, those kids wouldn't have had the option of entering the portal at all.
There are also 133 kids who are true juniors this year would have previously just had one more year of eligibility, and now have two... so I'd imagine that number would be a touch lower in future years, too. But the ability to play immediately instead of sitting a year changes the math on this group, too, moving them from a "2 for 1" bucket into something more closely resembling graduate transfers with one immediate year of eligibility.... but the number of "grad transfers" will go down a bit, too, since players won't need to take a RS year anymore when transferring, which means fewer RS Srs overall.
Covid and quarantining itself also likely inflates the numbers a bit - with guys that have been locked down away from family for a year and looking to transfer closer to home.
My guess is that the volume in the portal stays high, but closer to 900-1000 kids a year rather than the 1500 we're seeing in 2021.
