6Z GFS this morning moved the rain line NW about 25 miles cutting snow totals down for I-95 and the 12Z NAM just did the same (maybe 4-8" of snow for Trenton to NYC, which is what the NWS kind of has), so if you love snow, you have to be at least concerned this could become wetter than white for 95. Could also be a blip/wobble. Hard to say.
11 am edit: 12Z GFS has very little snow and mostly rain for the 95 corridor as the track moved west. The 12Z RDPS (mesoscale model, like the NAM) shows 1-2 feet of snow. So yeah, easy forecast. Let's see what Dr. No (Euro) and the UK say.
11:40 am edit. Model mayhem in full force. 12Z HRDPS (high res version of the RDPS) is a huge hit and the CMC continues to be a good hit for 95, while the UK supposedly "looks good" from a pro met (that model isn't available easily). So, yeah, easy forecast.
The 12Z Euro is a great run, still, for 95, but the precip axis has moved NW about 25-30 miles and surface temps at the height of the storm are 1-2F warmer for 95 and the coast, so areas towards the NJ coast and on eastern LI do much worse for this run vs. 00Z and 95 is all snow (10-16" verbatim), but is very close to rain. I can see maps but can't post them, but it's clear from comparing the last two runs. Any further move NW and the 95 corridor from Phiilly to NYC will be in trouble.
Typical very close call for 95 - many pros say that snowstorms (especially the rain/snow line) for this area are the hardest to forecast anywhere outside of mountainous areas, which are just impossible, with so many elevation changes. But usually, nobody cares about mountainous areas, whereas tens of millions live from DC to Boston. So, yeah, easy forecast. Gun to my head, I don't think the NWS changes the forecast too much, as they're already pretty conservative for the 95 corridor (5-10"), but we might not know the outcome on this one until the event is underway.
One warning: tomorrow morning won't be a big deal, as there will be light snow and maybe rain for 95/coast and the precip doesn't get heavy until the late morning through the late evening.
However, where this ends up being all snow, it's going to come down at 1-2" per hour in the afternoon/evening, such that the pm commute could be a nightmare, as heavy snow will accumulate even on major highways and a lot of heavy wet snow will very likely stick to trees (and not blow off easily) leading to downed trees and power outages.
