Covid 5.0

[HuskerTilDeath_rivals]

JMHO we have to get rolling with testing and fast IMHO here. I know people who were "clinically diagnosed" and told to quarantine at home, but has never been tested. Last I knew, Nebraska was the 38th most populated state, but there are only 6 states with less "confirmed cases" than Nebraska. Nebraska 1.9 million people, Iowa 3.1 million people. Nebraska 68 confirmed cases, Iowa 179? Those numbers don't sound proportional.

IMHO Nebraska's numbers due to lack of testing is creating a potential false sense of security.

I think Nebraska has a different testing philosophy. With a positive test rate hovering around 5%, the head doctor here isnt worried about testing the masses. He has consistently said that he want to use the tests on the worst of the worst and healthcare workers.

He knows that there are way more than 70 people in Nebraska that have the virus, but they are focused on keeping the healthcare workers safe and allocating resources to the people that truly need it.

 

[John_J_Rambo_rivals315142]

1. Because we have all been pretty much stuck at home with preventative measures for about 3 weeks. Duh.

2. No kidding, that's why I just put the rates from the available numbers at the exact moment I was typing.

3. Why didn't I put those countries? How many did you want me to put? It's 4.5% for the whole world does that make you feel better? My point was as I noted, IF NO PREVENTATIVE MEASURES WERE BEING TAKEN.

the virus has been here 3+ months, not 3 weeks.

there are tons of cases that have already run their course & will never be documented on either side, which will eat into those numbers quite a bit.

 

[Mack In Motion]

Stop basing your numbers off of these confirmed cases. Those are not accurate. Do you really think that there have only been 74K cases in the US?

Yep. Put a zero on the end of that 74k number and you're probably WAY closer to actual number of cases than 74k is.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

Those percentages will come down once the actual number of infected people is determined (if ever). Right now, the testing has been slanted to the more extreme symptomatic people. The number of asymptomatic/mild symptomatic people that haven't been tested is probably a rather large number. I have no scientific data to back that up, just logic/conjecture, so take that for what it's worth.

Ok, how about this for logic,conjecture?
How often have the common cold overpopulated hospitals?
Do more people get the common cold than this? If so, why arent our hospitals needing more rooms during cold season?
Name a period of time where people are using up all the ventalators being intubated for two to three weeks?

Common knowledge,or logic, tells us this has never come close to this, even with those higher numbers of people getting the common cold.
Its like saying a weasel is the same as a badger, same family, similat habits, but no, not the same when saying because it attacks or creates an over reaction in our bodies, hey are the same in everything but whats important, since even here, when were there 5 different attempts on the same subject, insert common cold?

Whens the last time, even if a person ends up in the hospital from a common cold, that their loved ones weren't allowed to be anywheres near them?
Theres your conjecture.

 

[newAD]

the virus has been here 3+ months, not 3 weeks.

there are tons of cases that have already run their course & will never be documented on either side, which will eat into those numbers quite a bit.

Have we all been basically stuck at home for 3 months?

 

[Headcard]

care to address this misinformation, @headcard ?

You are saying to use common sense, yet you constantly compare the virus to the flu, etc. That sort of thing is dangerous and definitely not common sense.

I’m not going through everyone of your posts to see if you specifically told people not to social distance, but many of the posters comparing Covid-19 to the flu, or now the common cold, are.

 

[RedMyMind]

Apparently, the tests that Italy received from China were only testing effectively 30% of the time. Ones they sent to Czech was up to 80% incorrect.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

You dont have to die to have a hose stuck down your throat into your lungs for two to three weeks, and potentially months for your lungs to go back to full functionality, and for some scarring, where they never do.

 

[newAD]

I think Nebraska has a different testing philosophy. With a positive test rate hovering around 5%, the head doctor here isnt worried about testing the masses. He has consistently said that he want to use the tests on the worst of the worst and healthcare workers.

He knows that there are way more than 70 people in Nebraska that have the virus, but they are focused on keeping the healthcare workers safe and allocating resources to the people that truly need it.

I understand that, I just think those facts get lost in translation to the public when they think, "Oh well our numbers in Nebraska are low."

 

[newAD]

Apparently, the tests that Italy received from China were only testing effectively 30% of the time. Ones they sent to Czech was up to 80% incorrect.

As I posted before, I hope one thing that comes out of this, is that we don't so heavily depend on China for so much.

 

[John_J_Rambo_rivals315142]

You are saying to use common sense, yet you constantly compare the virus to the flu, etc. That sort of thing is dangerous and definitely not common sense.

I’m not going through everyone of your posts to see if you specifically told people not to social distance, but many of the posters comparing Covid-19 to the flu, or now the common cold, are.

How about I help:

I have not once made that comparison. I have also, on several occasions, talked about my own self-quarantine (14 days today), as my fiance is on the frontlines.

My argument was with that psychopath @Hoosker Du about his wanting the military to enforce a draconian lockdown, including the killing of dissenters. I stand by not thinking this is necessary.

I understand emotions are running high. Please don't let your feelings get in the way of fact, especially when slandering others. Thanks.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

Numbers?
OK, lets go to 0.02% thats lowest death count on certain projections.
But, that means 1% get hospitalized, where around 15% of those get intubated on a long stay.

So, around 4.5 million potential intubations,from beginning to end of cycle.

I think those numbers die down with our efforts, therapies found etc.
But, I wouldn't be surprised if it reached 2 million.

 

[John_J_Rambo_rivals315142]

Have we all been basically stuck at home for 3 months?

just to clarify, do you think:
A.) we were quarantined due to the first case, or
B.) a virus this easily spread took 5 months to travel from china to the US when those 5 months included the 2 biggest travel holidays of the year?

I'm very confused by your response, especially when experts concede there were certainly cases here in December/January.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

In china,new years is like our new years,Christmas and the 4th all wrapped in one. Millions of chinese go back to china every year to their families and friends.

 

[yort2000]

Numbers?
OK, lets go to 0.02% thats lowest death count on certain projections.
But, that means 1% get hospitalized, where around 15% of those get intubated on a long stay.

So, around 4.5 million potential intubations,from beginning to end of cycle.

I think those numbers die down with our efforts, therapies found etc.
But, I wouldn't be surprised if it reached 2 million.

Are these global numbers? How many people are you thinking are going to get infected? 3 billion?

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

Are these global numbers? How many people are you thinking are going to get infected? 3 billion?

No.
The percentages were created from a town in italy of 3600 people, who were all tested.
Then worked against known deaths.
Then using 10-20% of known cases reaching hospital.

Then apply it to te country population of choice.
Where I see problems are, this includes very first wave numbers, where we hadn't tried any selfprotections, nor how it effected the elderly of those with multiple health problems, so, the numbers artificially bumped up there.
It also doesn't include countries like ours that went into safe practices sooner into the curve, or spread, creating that overwhelming effect if not doing them, where our healthcare systems became over run in various places on the planet.
Just like you can't use So Korea as an overall example, things vary, but the numbers are likely skewed to the high side, even using these lower numbers.

 

[Solana Beach Husker]

I understand that, I just think those facts get lost in translation to the public when they think, "Oh well our numbers in Nebraska are low."

The testing procedures are ludicrous...

1. Have you traveled from a hot spot?
2. Have you been in close contact with someone who is infected?
3. Does your community have community spread?

How is a community supposed to know if it has community spread if it doesn't test people who have it from community spread? They are only testing travellers and those who have close contact to already infected. We are basically waiting for the boom...a bunch of sick people all at once to then test, expect we will be out of PPE and won't be able to test. Fever is only found in a minority of cases, many people have abdominal pain, loss of taste or smell...New York has had people coming in for car accidents, and their chest x-rays show covid...I suppose in those sort of environment lockdown is the only answer...and to those who hate the lockdown and the economic impact...this could have been averted by smart policies back in February and not lies, coverups, and incompetence. Knowing about pandemics and how to approach them is the job of every head of local, state, and federal government as there is only one of other thing that affects populace as a whole as much, and that would be world war. Saying our governors or president aren't responsible for the poor response is like saying FDR had nothing to do with World War II.

 

[Headcard]

How about I help:

I have not once made that comparison. I have also, on several occasions, talked about my own self-quarantine (14 days today), as my fiance is on the frontlines.

My argument was with that psychopath @Hoosker Du about his wanting the military to enforce a draconian lockdown, including the killing of dissenters. I stand by not thinking this is necessary.

I understand emotions are running high. Please don't let your feelings get in the way of fact, especially when slandering others. Thanks.

Fair enough. Sorry, friend.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

Are these global numbers? How many people are you thinking are going to get infected? 3 billion?

To more directly answer you, 320 million. Us. Thats how many end up hospilitized here.
To clarify even further,this doesnt include any therapies, drugs,treatments early on, preventing hospital.

 

[yort2000]

No.
The percentages were created from a town in italy of 3600 people, who were all tested.
Then worked against known deaths.
Then using 10-20% of known cases reaching hospital.

Then apply it to te country population of choice.
Where I see problems are, this includes very first wave numbers, where we hadn't tried any selfprotections, nor how it effected the elderly of those with multiple health problems, so, the numbers artificially bumped up there.
It also doesn't include countries like ours that went into safe practices sooner into the curve, or spread, creating that overwhelming effect if not doing them, where our healthcare systems became over run in various places on the planet.
Just like you can't use So Korea as an overall example, things vary, but the numbers are likely skewed to the high side, even using these lower numbers.

Ok, USA's population is around 327,000,000 x .01 X .15 = 490,500, not 4.5 million. Thus, my question.

 

[newAD]

just to clarify, do you think:
A.) we were quarantined due to the first case, or
B.) a virus this easily spread took 5 months to travel from china to the US when those 5 months included the 2 biggest travel holidays of the year?

I'm very confused by your response, especially when experts concede there were certainly cases here in December/January.

I thought you were questioning me about why I said "3 weeks". So that's why I answered the way I did. That's roughly when the "precautionary measures" began. I'm not disputing that there could or were already cases in the US before then. 3 months ago we as a country were not very concerned about this. I wan't trying to say that is when the first case appeared in the US, I'm saying that is when the awareness and attention really became focused on this issue.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

Ok, USA's population is around 327,000,000 x .01 X .15 = 490,500, not 4.5 million. Thus, my question.

You did that backwards. 0.02% are deaths.
The 10-20% of known cases was rounded to 15%.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

Ok, USA's population is around 327,000,000 x .01 X .15 = 490,500, not 4.5 million. Thus, my question.

I see, you're talking intubation,long term. Double that number of yours, then yes.
As I said, it was .02, not .01, all percentages.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

So, potentially 900,000.Rounded, and with no current therapies.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

I read another number above of one in I think someone said,one in 250
That's reasonable. Thats still alot of people.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

I read another number above of one in I think someone said, 250
That's reasonable. Thats still alot of people.

I also believe not everyone will get this, likely left to itself, over time, over 70%. So, even that 900,000 is likely too high.

 

[RaisingArizona]

That's a parody acct.

The system removed my winking faces

yeah. Another poster pointed that out. Egg on my face on account of my gullibility.

 

[yort2000]

But, that means 1% get hospitalized, where around 15% of those get intubated on a long stay.

I see, you're talking intubation,long term. Double that number of yours, then yes.
As I said, it was .02, not .01, all percentages.

You said 1% get hospitalized and 15% of those get intubated. And then you have to make the assumption that everyone in America gets infected.

 

[mwulf]

Are there still a shitload of coyotes in Woodland Hills? I lived in the area years ago and there was so many damn coyotes...

They are here but I am closer to Victory so much more people traffic.

 

[gw2kpro]

To more directly answer you, 320 million. Us. Thats how many end up hospilitized here.
To clarify even further,this doesnt include any therapies, drugs,treatments early on, preventing hospital.

You think 320 million Americans are going to be hospitalized due to this?

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

Its still early on. I think that noble laureate is mostly right, just going by my own workings.
He's extrapolating way ahead of me, with my numbers farther into our scenario.

Until we see decline on the curve,tough to say, but at some point, you reach a saturation point, where simply smaller amounts of people are even able to get the virus.
Theres other hopeful factors to consider such as seasonl as well.

Best hopeful guess, one in three hundred, which means 24000 for ny city.

 

[ZaneHickey]

the virus has been here 3+ months, not 3 weeks.

there are tons of cases that have already run their course & will never be documented on either side, which will eat into those numbers quite a bit.

17 yr old son had a 9-day fever in Feb, tested negative for influenza, capped it off with pneumonia. Wife had 3 days of unusual fatigue, daughter had a 4-5 days of fever. Wife teaches preschool and had an unusual number of kids down with pneumonia...in Dec/Jan. Coincidence? Probably thousands of NE infections that came and went, I would guess. Some good news about lack of mutation, which will help with the vaccine for next year's season.

 

[RaisingArizona]

You said 1% get hospitalized and 15% of those get intubated. And then you have to make the assumption that everyone in America gets infected.

Unless we get a vaccine prior most experts think that we have to hit herd immunity which means 60-70% of the country will get it.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

You think 320 million Americans are going to be hospitalized due to this?

He wanted to know which country, I used 320 million, approx our population, in the formula

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

17 yr old son had a 9-day fever in Feb, tested negative for influenza, capped it off with pneumonia. Wife had 3 days of unusual fatigue, daughter had a 4-5 days of fever. Wife teaches preschool and had an unusual number of kids down with pneumonia...in Dec/Jan. Coincidence? Probably thousands of NE infections that came and went, I would guess. Some good news about lack of mutation, which will help with the vaccine for next year's season.

Sounds like normal flu, as likely you and others would likely have experienced some symptoms.
Did anyone lose their sense of smell or taste, prior to greater symptoms?

 

[John_J_Rambo_rivals315142]

17 yr old son had a 9-day fever in Feb, tested negative for influenza, capped it off with pneumonia. Wife had 3 days of unusual fatigue, daughter had a 4-5 days of fever. Wife teaches preschool and had an unusual number of kids down with pneumonia...in Dec/Jan. Coincidence? Probably thousands of NE infections that came and went, I would guess. Some good news about lack of mutation, which will help with the vaccine for next year's season.

fiance and I have had 3 separate doctors tell us we likely had it just after the new year.. fever, chills, sore throat, persistent dry cough, aches, fatigue for 10-12 days. she had it first, after a week I thought I was in the clear then it hit me.

we both traveled through international airports over the holidays in addition to her working in a hospital.

 

[NorthwoodHusker]

Unless we get a vaccine prior most experts think that we have to hit herd immunity which means 60-70% of the country will get it.

I believe theyre looking at a higher percentage, starting at 70% or higher, simply because its so contagious.
Double edged sword here though, because it appears to be so stable, thus contagious in its original form, a vaccine will be much more effective as well.

 

[gw2kpro]

17 yr old son had a 9-day fever in Feb, tested negative for influenza, capped it off with pneumonia. Wife had 3 days of unusual fatigue, daughter had a 4-5 days of fever. Wife teaches preschool and had an unusual number of kids down with pneumonia...in Dec/Jan. Coincidence? Probably thousands of NE infections that came and went, I would guess. Some good news about lack of mutation, which will help with the vaccine for next year's season.

My wife had similar. 9 days centered around Valentine's day. Fever on and off and tired. Sinus trouble whole time. Back and forth to the doc. Just had to ride it out. Toward the end both of my kids (teens) got a fever for about 2 days and just stayed in bed. One of them missed a Friday of school, the other missed the next Monday. First day of school ever missed by my son. Nothing for me for whatever reason. Don't know if this is what it was, but fits the symptoms. I'm certain it wasn't a common cold. Doc did not test for influenza so not sure.

 

[newAD]

Published yesterday. I don't know the author's qualifications. Haven't read it all yet.

How the Pandemic Will End:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

 

[Headcard]

I believe the math used to come up with the 2 million dead statistic is that 60-80% of the population have to get the virus for the group to get immunity and 1% of the people that get it die.

60% of 330 Million= 198 million
1% of 198 million= 1.98 million

Obviously we aren’t just going to let it run unchecked through our population, so that won’t happen. Social distancing will slow down cases, treatments will reduce death rates and eventually a vaccine will get rid of it, for the most part. But that is what could have happened, if we just pretended like Covid-19 was the common cold and did nothing.