I agree. It won’t be anywhere near that number. I do think things in NYC could get really bad. Wouldn’t shock me if 10k plus die in NYC alone which is still incredibly tragic
Covid 5.0
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I agree. It won’t be anywhere near that number. I do think things in NYC could get really bad. Wouldn’t shock me if 10k plus die in NYC alone which is still incredibly tragic
What Ive seen is, those numbers aren't likely run through our whole population.
Right now, we know death count and hospital count, and those who've tested positive, but, those tests are yet small in our population, because most were given to a larger number who're likely to reach hospital.
How many more have been told to wait until symtops get worse? How many currently have it and don't know? How many are totally asyptomatic, or, as said above, sore throats, tired achey, symptoms of common flu?
We need testing to extrapolate. That town in Italy, that princess ship are two examples where all were tested.
That can be worked into a very rough formula, but, there'll likely never be full infection on top of that as well.
My whole family had the same thing in early February. Was diagnosed as severe bronchitis. We live in the Pacific Northwest and our son attends Petri dish school, errr I mean Preschool.
I have a friend that caught Covid-19 at a medical conference in Boston. He described waking up at night gasping for air. My wife and I both experienced the same phenomenon.
I brought up Covid to my Dr. and was basically laughed at in that polite Dr. kind of way.
Well, here's hoping we are now part of the herd immunity counter-attack.Smokin
I
I wonder if you're not right on this. There was some mysterious crud going around in that Dec/Jan time period that seemed strange and different than anything I had seen before. And I m telling you, guessing 50-70% of our community had it. It wasn't the flu
Girl I'm currently seeing had an 18y/o daughter who was sick with that description, for months!! Just got over it, literally, and before we'd ever heard the words "China virus" she said it wasn't like a normal sick or cold or flu. I suspect a lot of people had it and conquered it before they knew they were supposed to die from it.
I had it. It was annoying but far feeling bad. Now by saying I had it I'm no claiming I had the C virus. I had what ever crap was going around at that time. Spicy food helped. I'm convinced, probably wrongly, that helps prevent colon cancer as well
she's been exposed several times to patients who've tested positive over the last few weeks and hasn't shown symptoms again.
who knows if she's carrying without symptoms or not, but hopefully the antibodies are doing their thing.
Cuomo now saying quarantining everyone was not the best strategy; developing an antibody test so that those who have had the virus and recovered can go back to work:
Number of Cases and cases per million in population
Hey China if you are going to lie at least make it a convincing lie - the country with the most densely packed population and largest populations with an average monthly income of $1000/month magically has far less infection rate than the rest of the world - They are directly responsible for this
- USA 82,547 249/million
- China 81285 56/million
- Italy 80285 1333/million
- Spain 57786 1236/million
- Germany 43646 521/million
Hey China if you are going to lie at least make it a convincing lie - the country with the most densely packed population and largest populations with an average monthly income of $1000/month magically has far less infection rate than the rest of the world - They are directly responsible for this
The other thing that is amusing about these numbers is all the people that were screaming for testing, testing, testing and now the same ones screaming because we are #1 in confirmed cases.
WTF did they expect would happen with testing?
We knew since early January it could come, we had our first known case January 20th in your neck of the woods. Hindsight is great, we probably should have started tracking and quarantining people coming in from foreign countries at that point. China locked down Wuhan within 30 days of main diagnosis, it took us 2 months.
My son had the flu early in January and then also was sick during the super bowl, as was I. My cough lasted at least 3-5 weeks after, doctor suspected influenza or adenovirus and said it was pointless to test so far into the season, it does make you wonder.
Dr. Fauci just said he is confident they will have a therapy/treatment in place before the next cycle hits. And possibly a vaccine as well, as they will start producing the vaccine in parallel with testing if it shows promise.
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model,” wrote the Daily Wire, “offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.”
What the reporter failed to note was that the revision to the model was based on the nationwide lock-down the UK government imposed, not because researchers had over-estimated the risk.
“Our analysis, therefore, suggests that healthcare demand can only be kept within manageable levels,” the Imperial researchers conclude, “through the rapid adoption of public health measures… similar to those being adopted in many countries at the current time.”
Over the last three weeks, it has become more clear that what makes the disease so deadly is that its transmission is so rapid that those made most sick from it overwhelm hospitals.
Excellent!
Yes the chinese governmet are liars about the wuhan flu.
But, our countryis unique amongst the others on the list.
Population densities create a curve of its own, plus good cares.
We have both in spades over everyone on the list.
11 days later, chinas doorways were shut, and for the first time since the 1960s, americans were quarantined as well.
There is an article out today about Patient zero in China here is an excerpt:
The Daily Mail reported Thursday that China's The Paper claims Wei Guixian, a 57-year-old woman working in Wuhan is the first person on record to be infected with the coronavirus.
Wei told the media outlet she started feeling sick on December 10. Thinking she might have the flu, she went to a local clinic seeking treatment. She was given some pills and then got back to work, selling live shrimp at the market.
Fast forward a week and Wei was barely conscious and clinging to life in a Chinese hospital bed.
ITALIAN NURSE WHO FELL ILL COMMITS SUICIDE OVER FEARS OF SPREADING CORONAVIRUS, NURSING GROUP SAYS
Two months after Wei went to the doctor, entire countries around the world had been put on lockdown. Industry ground to a halt and financial markets went into free-fall. On Thursday, the number of people infected with COVID-19 around the world surpassed the 500,000 mark.
Since the beginning, doctors have struggled to connect the dots between Wei and other early cases of coronavirus, The Daily Mail reported. When they were able to establish a link between Wei and 24 out of 27 of the earliest patients on record, officials quarantined her. But by then, the damage had already been done. Wei and others were also forbidden by Chinese authorities to warn their peers or the public about the monster virus taking over their bodies.
They knew ( China) and withheld the information . The guy From Snohomish who was patient zero in Washington if not the country flew back fro Wuhan on 1-14 was quarantined the same day he went into hospital. They tracked down and quarantined 40 people he had come into contact with but someone slipped through the crack most likely at the airport. Given a reasonable time to react that does not leave much time to react. We then got more bad luck by it surfacing in a nursing home. If it had manifested in some random people we would have had more time to react. The US reacted fine
We did not know in early January as the Chinese were lying to the world
Imperial College did a model accounting for social distancing and quarantine and still predicted a million deaths here and 250,000 in the UK. It was a garbage model. Dr. Birx discussed this today:
And 17 days later, china was shut out.
If it had started here, our reaction time likely would have been three weeks or less.
China more than doubled that time.
They'd told the W.H.O. It wasn't transmissible between people around that time as well.
We obviously didn't listen.
Thank you Dr Birx.
If 100% of us all got it, which is very unlikely close to happening, under the current model, 10-20% go to hospital, not 20%.
Now, thats only people who's tested positive and with bad enough symptoms to not ride it out at home.
Thats where the more likely formula of one in a larger number than five comes in.
That is just stoopid math, with no thought going into it, that 20% number.
So, currently, everything is guesstimations. But some are much more nuanced,more precise, where that london number sounds like the billionaire who ran for office would have given us each a million on his campaign spending type mentality.
If 100% of us all got it, which is very unlikely close to happening, under the current model, 10-20% go to hospital, not 20%.
Now, thats only people who's tested positive and with bad enough symptoms to not ride it out at home.
Thats where the more likely formula of one in a larger number than five comes in.
That is just stoopid math, with no thought going into it, that 20% number.
So, currently, everything is guesstimations. But some are much more nuanced,more precise, where that london number sounds like the billionaire who ran for office would have given us each a million on his campaign spending type mentality.
Or maybe the fact we are actually trying to test as many people as possible and not lie about anything. This number is going to continue to jump and more than likely it’s already ten fold higher.
i hear what youre saying.
probably wont be near this bad.
never know, the proof is in the pudding.
that being said, it wont have to get as bad as those #’s.
it will only have to stress the healthcare system to the limit...and it wont take much to get there.
for anyone that gets bad enough, i just hope there is an open ventilator...or you wont have to watch a loved one suffocate to death for lack if one or it be determined not worth saving...
Hospitals in our area are not allowing patient visitors - that includes family and includes the ICU - you may not be with your loved one if they die
hell, you may never get close to the icu.
i could easily see this happening in the hospital parking lot...or along those lines.
The Republicans tied in a bunch of their special interests too. Why should the public subsidize companies planning to downsize and reduce pay to their workers? You also had some Republican senators planning to delay the bill so they could reduce the unemployment benefit provision.
And yet S Korea started working on a test January 16 (even before their first patient) and had their system up and running soon after. Their proactive testing and tracking, etc and the population's buy-in (except rogue church/cults) kept it in check and flattened the curve quickly, even in population-dense cities.
The US was much slower to react.
The US was much slower to react.
I know. It's like both parties haven't been doing this for just about every bill ever. But only the Democrats are scum. RollingLaugh
I said Trump's response was playing generally well in another thread. Hadn't seen this chart yet. Sort of confirmed my suspicions the other day that I really hope Trump is smart enough to ignore some of the MAGA crowd that has wanted Fauci gone because he's diverged from the president in some cases.
That'd be a ticket to the economic bottom right there.
JP Morgan has already adjusted GDP estimate downward today even including the stimulus.
Lol
Good try, Lenin.
My posts are all public, feel free to prove your point with facts and quotes anytime you’d like. Preferably before your heiling hand gets too tired to work the mouse.
True, but if Trump had told the country to lock down when there were only a handful of deaths, the Democrats and media would have called him a fascist dictator. You think the NYC mayor would have complied? Just 2 weeks ago he was telling his people to go out to restaurants and movies. Half of the cases are in New York, outside of NY it is been managed very well so far.
It’s very funny to see those who’ve been vehemently opposed to his entire presidency now wishing he’d exercised more power.
The govt, regardless of which side is in charge, has very little reason to be ahead of the curve on anything besides national defense.
So,show us their plans, or were those doubling the workers pay? I like this game, no proof needed, just make it up.
But, losing your workplace, that could never happen, thats already a given,right?
You sound reasonable...
American Deaths World War II: 405000
American Deaths 1918 H1N1 Pandemic: 700000
I would say that fighting a pandemic falls under national defense. I can't believe people still do not understand this...the President is who he is...he was elected to deal with stuff like this...his constituency is ignorant to problems like this, they have shown this time and time again. I think he is funny, entertaining, and a master politician...he is charming in an awful sort of way but I was terrified of him for two reasons...he wouldn't be able to manage a military crisis and he wouldn't be able to manage a health crisis...we just had to cross our fingers and hope those didn't happen. You have to remember that guys like Wilson, FDR, Truman had mental breakdowns from the pressure of war and pandemic...it is an immense amount of strain on a human being who understands that their decisions will not only cost a life or two but possibly thousands if not millions. We all know that Trump has built his power through his image not through production and productivity although he is highly active. How is he all of a sudden suppose to manifest a TRUE consequence when he has been about manipulating appearances? This will go from "don't test, don't tell", to "lockdown", to manipulating severe/critical/death stats in certain states to give the impression it wasn't that bad.
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