Worst Covid in MS......

[Tripper123044]

https://247wallst.com/state/this-is-the-worst-covid-19-hot-spot-in-mississippi-7/

 

[hdogg]

I like how 36 total deaths in a county is being called out as the worst per capita. One thing I learned early in engineering is junk science... comparing absolute numbers vs percentage and using whichever is more impactful.
I learned how to spot this in workplace presentations after many years... journalists learn how to perfect this before they graduate.

 

[Mobile Bay]

I like how 36 total deaths in a county is being called out as the worst per capita. One thing I learned early in engineering is junk science... comparing absolute numbers vs percentage and using whichever is more impactful.
I learned how to spot this in workplace presentations after many years... journalists learn how to perfect this before they graduate.

Small denominators make for big percentages. 10 cases in New York=nothing. 10 cases in Kemper County = the apocalypse as far as percentages go. Makes for lazy journalism.

 

[PineGroveBully]

You know that spot isn’t THAT hot if they don’t mention the county until the 6th paragraph. Did this “journalist” think someone unaware of the global pandemic and totally oblivious to its reach might actually read this?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Numbers are improving tremendously. Got to do something to get the fear levels back up before people start thinking for themselves.

 

[Crazy Cotton]

That's one death out of every 345 people in Yalobusha. That seems pretty high.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

Yeah, the 22.7 cases per 100,000 daily new cases last week comes out to a whopping 2.8 new cases per day

 

[ZombieKissinger]

They have the death per 100,000 chart at the bottom of the article, and Yalobusha isn’t even close to the top

 

[GhostOfJackie]

Small denominators make for big percentages. 10 cases in New York=nothing. 10 cases in Kemper County = the apocalypse as far as percentages go. Makes for lazy journalism.

Most people don't see the reality or the gravity of what's happening, but lazy journalism is playing a big big role in the downfall of our nation. Not all journalists, but most of the ones who are tasked with reporting for the major outlets are scum of the earth. They are choosing to push political narratives instead of reporting on the facts time after time, and they have completely ruined the trust of the readers/viewers. This is dangerous for the country in many ways and we are seeing that manifest itself right before our eyes. The younger generation (both sides politically) have very little trust in the media. These "journalists" can look in the mirror and see exactly who is to blame for the lack of trust.

So.... lazy journalism is to blame for most of the problems facing our nation at the moment.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

Numbers are improving tremendously. Got to do something to get the fear levels back up before people start thinking for themselves.

This^^^

 

[Phil Wenneck.sixpack]

Off topic but every time I hear anything about Yalobusha county, I'm reminded

of the story about the Italian who hooked up with a blonde from there. He reported back to his friends that she had a Yalobusha.

 

[Bill Shankly]

Did y'all even read that article? It's not making Mississippi out to be the worst, it even says we have one of the lowest case rates in the nation. I suspect that's one of those click bait things......The worst garbage dump in every state....That type stuff. Right now Yalobusha county does have the worst rate in Mississippi, but as the statistics in the article show, it's just barely above the National average.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

The map showing low red state vax adoption is telling. Turns out all the people who were disgusted at the fear of the virus are afraid of the shot. They also tend to justify it by distrust of the government that was actually put on the sideline to allow the vax to be moved forward quickly without government red tape. Critical thinking is about as common as common sense these days...

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[ZombieKissinger]

For me, it’s just weird when you’re saying it’s the worst county in the state based on a week’s worth of daily new cases. That works better when comparing states since the populations are so much higher, but when you’re comparing small population counties, it isn’t very useful. One exposure (e.g. single church service, wedding, funeral) or even one household could significantly swing the numbers. The article did supply numbers showing Yalobusha has been hit hard throughout the last year, but the “worst county” designation in the article was only based on one week’s worth of data

 

[Bill Shankly]

For me, it’s just weird when you’re saying it’s the worst county in the state based on a week’s worth of daily new cases. That works better when comparing states since the populations are so much higher, but when you’re comparing small population counties, it isn’t very useful. One exposure (e.g. single church service, wedding, funeral) or even one household could significantly swing the numbers. The article did supply numbers showing Yalobusha has been hit hard throughout the last year, but the “worst county” designation in the article was only based on one week’s worth of data

So what number are you going to use? The 7 day average rate of infection per 100K is the number that has been used by most throughout this thing. It's a pretty good snapshot of the current state of affairs.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

For counties across a state (assuming many have small populations), looking at daily new cases over a month (or 4 weeks) makes more sense. Even two weeks would be a big step up. For states, a week is fine.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I think there are a lot of things going into it. Some is certainly general distrust, which Fauci has contributed to with him lying about masks then reversing course and saying he'd do the same thing all over again. Also, if you don't think COVID is serious and if your state has fewer restrictions, there's less incentive to get vaccines. So I get where some people are coming from.

That said, the vaccine appears very safe. Even if people aren't concerned about their own health, they should get it for the general public health. "If you're worried, stay home" isn't a sustainable approach, and the higher the overall infection rate is, the higher the chance is of someone at high risk getting it. I strongly encourage people to get it for their own health and for the health of others.

 

[operch]

The county of my birth. Home of Bob Tyler ex coach MSU. God's Little Acre

 

[Bill Shankly]

For counties across a state (assuming many have small populations), looking at daily new cases over a month (or 4 weeks) makes more sense. Even two weeks would be a big step up. For states, a week is fine.

So 500 cases in DeSoto county is the same as 500 in Issaquena county then?

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I meant daily new cases per 100,000 over a 4 week period*. Not absolute numbers.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Yalobusha 7 day average 2 cases a day.

 

[o_Hot Rock]

I meant daily new cases per 100,000 over a 4 week period*. Not absolute numbers.

Purely speculative thoughts but .... If it's past 7 days, then isn't threat is about gone. People don't stay contagious but a few days right unless they end up in the hospital? Wouldn't 4 week old data be useless in determining the current threat in an area?

If you want to know how badly areas have been hit, just look at the overall numbers and current threat.. 7 day average sounds about right.

 

[PirateDawg]

https://247wallst.com/state/this-is-the-worst-covid-19-hot-spot-in-mississippi-7/

Cain slew Abel with a stick killing 25% of the world's population! Time to outlaw sticks!

 

[DawgInThe256]

This looks like a bot generated article. A few boilerplate paragraphs with injected state-specific information.

 

[ZombieKissinger]

There's a 2-14 day incubation period and you're supposed to quarantine 10 days after positive test as long as symptoms aren't worsening. There's also the delay in test results/reporting (though this is typically short), which can influence reporting. I'm not saying 4 weeks is ideal, maybe 2-3 weeks, but looking at 7 days can be misleading as the population decreases. For example, announcers were always talking about how DJ Stewart is from the small town of Grace, MS. If a family of 3 all tested positive one week in Grace, you'd get 487 daily new cases per 100,000 there based on that family alone. It gets better when you increase the population to a few thousand, but your rates are still subject to significant swings by single events or even single families getting it.

If you're going to look at 7 day averages, you really need to compare it to the last few weeks to make sure the numbers aren't jumping all over the place. Looking at overall numbers along with 7 day averages does help show whether the 7 day period is representative of the county's infection rate over the last several months, but you're subject to more noise as populations decrease, so it's good to see a longer time period. I do agree that going much over 4 weeks gets less helpful for current threat, though it is more helpful than overall COVID numbers since the beginning of the virus. I think the reason we're seeing 7 day averages reported on the county level is because 7 day averages are good when you're looking at state rates or even large counties, so that's why it's being tracked that way. For small counties, though, you need to pay attention to what it's doing over time.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

This looks like a bot generated article. A few boilerplate paragraphs with injected state-specific information.

Bots are voters too!

 

[Go Budaw]

The map showing low red state vax adoption is telling. Turns out all the people who were disgusted at the fear of the virus are afraid of the shot. They also tend to justify it by distrust of the government that was actually put on the sideline to allow the vax to be moved forward quickly without government red tape. Critical thinking is about as common as common sense these days...

View attachment 19958

It’s pretty much a complete overlap of that map vs the states with the least educated population per capita. The only thing surprising is that anyone is actually surprised.

 

[o_Hot Rock]

I was thinking 10-14 day average would be better myself but you hit on most of the points I was thinking about.

Smaller less populated areas will definitely have higher fluctuation in a 7-day average than a higher populous.

If working in my career has taught me anything is to take all data with a grain of salt. So much of it is subject to manipulation whether it's on purpose or not.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

I like how 36 total deaths in a county is being called out as the worst per capita. One thing I learned early in engineering is junk science... comparing absolute numbers vs percentage and using whichever is more impactful.
I learned how to spot this in workplace presentations after many years... journalists learn how to perfect this before they graduate.

Preach brother. Stats are only as good as the person analyzing them.

The beach/shark attack stat illustrates it best. Most shark attacks happen at the beach. Because that's where the people are.

 

[paindonthurt_]

I think the problem is the younger generation have trust in the media. They don’t realize they are being lied to.

I know smart people from 25 to 35 who honestly can’t believe the original “kids in cages” pic was taken in 2014 under Obama/biden.

The ones who do believe it after it’s proven to them can’t understand why the media would lie so they keep watching and listening to the same sources.

For the record, I understand all media outlets have liars and agendas including fox. That’s not all media members, but yes all outlets.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I don’t think they’re afraid of the shot, they just don’t find it necessary. Almost everyone I know that’s not getting it thinks it’s not necessary because they’re young and heathy. Has nothing to do with fear.