Because Grand Canyon got a 10-point Q2 road win. Moved from 99 to 91.
Grand Canyon has literally no shot at an at-large. Don't worry about them moving in front of us.
Very rough first crack at Bacatology
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Grand Canyon has literally no shot at an at-large. Don't worry about them moving in front of us.
yeah its too bad that they didnt lose that game, would have been a Q3 and knocked them out for now. They have very solid wins. I still think they need to beat St Marys, not sure a 10 loss school after WCC tourney play gets a bid from this league.
yeah you really dont see many moves like that....perhaps indicating that maybe from the 50s to the 30 spot might be a fairly tight gradient.
Updated
LAST FOUR BYES: COLORADO STATE, BYU, OREGON, OKLAHOMA
LAST FOUR IN: SAN FRANCISCO, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA, MIAMI
FIRST 4 OUT: LOYOLA, RUTGERS, WEST VIRGINIA, STANFORD
NEXT 4 OUT: SAN DIEGO STATE, VIRGINIA, FLORIDA, KANSAS STATE
LAST FOUR BYES: COLORADO STATE, BYU, OREGON, OKLAHOMA
LAST FOUR IN: SAN FRANCISCO, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA, MIAMI
FIRST 4 OUT: LOYOLA, RUTGERS, WEST VIRGINIA, STANFORD
NEXT 4 OUT: SAN DIEGO STATE, VIRGINIA, FLORIDA, KANSAS STATE
Last edited:
Loyola almost not even worth considering. They're very close to autobid or bust considering no Q1 and only one Q2 left on the schedule. I guess if they ran the table and picked up another Q2 in Arch Madness before losing to Missouri State or Northern Iowa then it's possible.
yeah their only win is San Francisco....but they do have no losses outside the top 100, mid major judged on a different and they did challenge themselves non conference, single digit losses to Auburn, Michigan State..beat San Fran and Vandy....i see their non conference sos is around 57. They have two with No Iowa left. I think if they win out and then lose in the conference tourney at 23-6 at worst, they are going to get a bid. Root hard for them to win this conference tourney
Certainly does not help that they have made their way to the first four out line with 30 days to go and no shot at Q1 wins like the major conference schools
Certainly does not help that they have made their way to the first four out line with 30 days to go and no shot at Q1 wins like the major conference schools
San Francisco has a weak SOS and not many (if any) quality wins. If they lose two (see gonzaga and @ st. mary's) down the stretch, will they be out?
I do. VA has a decent chance to be a 12 loss team though which is why I put their odds of getting in substantially ahead of ours right now.
The SOS at around 100 isnt all that bad for a team from a mid major. The Dons have very good wins for a mid major...at BYU, UAB and neutral over Davidson and those latter two very well may be AQs from their leagues. The loss vs Portland was damaging. You are right though the St Marys and Gonzaga games are huge. They need a split but also need to win on the road at Santa Clara and Pacific
an incredibly rough stretch in just this week...at Santa Clara, at Pacific, at St Marys then a week off until hosting Gonzaga...beating the Zags go along way but they cannot lose more than 1 of the other games. Likely to come down to the WCC tourney to see if BYU who has a better resume and San Fran can play their way in
an incredibly rough stretch in just this week...at Santa Clara, at Pacific, at St Marys then a week off until hosting Gonzaga...beating the Zags go along way but they cannot lose more than 1 of the other games. Likely to come down to the WCC tourney to see if BYU who has a better resume and San Fran can play their way in
Oregon beats Stanford
Washington State loses to Arizona
If they played today on a neutral court, Oregon is favored. Upward trend.
P6 selections are mainly focused on Q1/2, and bad losses, using Q3 record being a tiebreaker option.
High-Mid and Mid majors are judged differently for at large bids, they tend to include Q3s into the selection process, combined Q1/2/3.
Last year's at large high-mid and mid majors
#23 St Bonaventure(16-4) 4-2, 2-1 is in, Q1/2 6-3, Q3 6-1, 12-4, 9.seed
#37 VCU(19-7) 2-5, 7-0 Q1/2 9-5, Q3 6-2, 15-7, 10 seed
#39 Utah St(19-8) 2-4, 2-1, Q1/2 4-5, Q3 7-2, 11-7, 11 seed
#45 Drake(23-4) was 1-2, 5-1 Q1/2 6-3, Q3 6-2, 12-5 play in 11 seed
but Q1s wins matter most in seeds, next combined Q1/2 and Q1/2/3
High-Mid and Mid majors are judged differently for at large bids, they tend to include Q3s into the selection process, combined Q1/2/3.
Last year's at large high-mid and mid majors
#23 St Bonaventure(16-4) 4-2, 2-1 is in, Q1/2 6-3, Q3 6-1, 12-4, 9.seed
#37 VCU(19-7) 2-5, 7-0 Q1/2 9-5, Q3 6-2, 15-7, 10 seed
#39 Utah St(19-8) 2-4, 2-1, Q1/2 4-5, Q3 7-2, 11-7, 11 seed
#45 Drake(23-4) was 1-2, 5-1 Q1/2 6-3, Q3 6-2, 12-5 play in 11 seed
but Q1s wins matter most in seeds, next combined Q1/2 and Q1/2/3
NMS would be an interesting case if they won out and lost to Grand Canyon to end their season. 4 losses.
Their resume stripped of the efficiency and point margin stuff is better than their NET (RPI would be in the 20s). Wins @ Wash State and Davidson.
Their resume stripped of the efficiency and point margin stuff is better than their NET (RPI would be in the 20s). Wins @ Wash State and Davidson.
Not your typical BYU team this year. They have struggled a lot this year. I don’t think they finish strong enough to make it.
More worried San Fran and a 5th PAC 12 school. Besides what NCAA says, they are going to want some west coast teams in there. PAC 12 having a very good year. Arizona up to #2. St. Mary’s?
Will they reward Mt. West? Wyoming, Boise, Colorado State all having very good years so far. Fresno lurking. SD State hanging around.
If we were to win 3 of the 6 Q1 games remaining (plus beat PSU), that would give us 8 Q1 wins (assuming UM holds at Q1). Would we still get a bid regardless of what happens in the B1GT?
Oops, missed that. Then my opinion is yes we're in at 18-12 (12-8) unless we somehow get matched up with (and lose to) Nebraska, Minnesota, or Maryland in our first game. Or if there are an unusual number of bid thieves elsewhere.
Wow 1st 4 out
We are now in play
I honestly believe we need 4 more wins
Could be 3 and 1 in tournament
Win home games would give us 2 more quad 1 wins for total of 7
Win
1 in Big 10 Tournament and I believe we are 12 seed
Lose 1 at home except Penn State and would need to beat 1 on road
LAST FOUR BYES: COLORADO STATE, BYU, OREGON, OKLAHOMA
LAST FOUR IN: SAN FRANCISCO, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA, MIAMI
You know if Michigan or UNC stays in the 30-41 range, they aren't a play in no matter what the resume says, they will be a 9 or 10. #42 Syracuse was an 8 or 9 with a Q1 3-10, 3-2 with a 10-2 Q3 in 18-19.
LAST FOUR IN: SAN FRANCISCO, MICHIGAN, NORTH CAROLINA, MIAMI
You know if Michigan or UNC stays in the 30-41 range, they aren't a play in no matter what the resume says, they will be a 9 or 10. #42 Syracuse was an 8 or 9 with a Q1 3-10, 3-2 with a 10-2 Q3 in 18-19.
Our 21 point smack down of # 13 at the time Michigan State is better than Virginia’s last second buzzer beater at # 8 Duke and better overall from an efficiency standpoint better than our win over # 1 Purdue
win at Wisconsin and I would project us in the field as of Saturday February 11 but thats 4 weeks before selection sunday
most bracketologists are sleeping on the RU resume right now waiting for them to win more games
This is all useless if we don't beat Wisconsin but I like tracking this stuff anyway so here's your Friday/Saturday bubble rooting guide:
Friday
St. Bonaventure at Saint Louis (76%) - Bonnies had all the hype in the A-10 but they've piled up too many losses for an at-large case. Saint Louis is the 5th team out at the moment on Bracket Matrix. A home loss would be tough at this point.
Fresno State at Colorado State (61%) - CSU currently sits on the 9 line on the matrix. A loss to a solid Fresno State squad wouldn't knock them out but it'd shorten their margin for error. CSU is 18-3 but 6 of their final 7 are tossups (between 34-61% chance of victory).
UNLV at Boise State (79%) - Boise State is even safer than Colorado State, but a loss here weakens the overall MWC profile a bit.
Nevada at Utah State (88%) - Utah State has great computer numbers but two Q4 losses are holding them back. Only in 8 brackets on the matrix. Another ugly loss would mean they'd probably need to sweep @SDSU, @Boise, and Colorado State to recover.
Saturday
San Francisco at Santa Clara (52%) - The Dons are squarely on the bubble. They're currently the last 10 seed but about a third of the brackets aren't yet updated to include their loss to Portland. If they lose here they likely need to win at St. Mary's or home vs. Gonzaga.
Indiana at Michigan State (65%) - We want Sparty to stay Q1.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State (60%) - WVU snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out. They're currently the 3rd team out and maybe the most bubbly of all the bubble teams. Oklahoma State is ineligible for the tournament so we want them taking out as many Big 12 bubble teams as possible.
Notre Dame at Clemson (59%) - Notre Dame is one of the last 4 in at the moment. Plus, obviously, Rutgers beat Clemson.
Murray State (64%) at Morehead State - Murray State would still have an at-large case even with a loss, but they may not be able to withstand a loss to Morehead AND a home loss to Belmont later in the year.
Kansas State at Iowa State - Honestly take your pick. Iowa State is still very safe despite a 3-8 Big 12 record, but I can see them finishing 6-12 and I don't know if the committee has the stomach to put a 6-12 team in even with a 13-0 non-conference record, including some very good wins. On the other hand, Kansas State is clinging to life (listed on just 4 brackets) and they need a road win like this for some juice.
Mississippi State at LSU (75%) - LSU also very safely in despite a recent losing streak. Miss State is in the "next four out" group right now. A road win here would vault them up very close to the field if not in.
Davidson (57%) at Rhode Island - Davidson has a solid at-large resume but they've been playing with fire. It's been a month since they've won a game by double digits.
Miami at Wake Forest (73%) - Take your pick. Miami is an 11, Wake Forest is a 10. The home loss would obviously be more damaging, but perhaps not damaging enough to knock Wake down to the true last 4 in/out bubble.
Oklahoma at Kansas (82%) - Oklahoma is sitting as the last 11 seed. A loss here won't drop them, but a win would put them solidly in.
TCU at Texas Tech (82%) - TCU is solidly in as of now on the 9 line, but they have a mediocre NET (55) and their remaining schedule is a bear: Kansas twice, Texas Tech twice, Baylor and Texas once. They could start piling up losses and fall to the bubble.
Memphis at Houston (88%) - This would be a signature road win for Memphis. They need to beat Houston at least once in their two matchups to get into the picture.
Florida State at North Carolina (77%) - Anything to weaken the Heels' resume is good. UNC sitting on the 11 line because they haven't taken a loss outside the first quadrant. This would be Q3.
Florida at Kentucky (89%) - Florida is the first team out right now. They can handle a loss but a big road win puts them solidly in.
SMU at East Carolina (71%) - SMU just upset Houston to start climbing into the fringes of the conversation. This would shut that down.
Creighton (70%) at Georgetown - The Hoyas just lost to a DePaul team missing like three players, and Patrick Ewing is going to get fired any minute. They have absolutely quit on the season. I can't believe KenPom says Creighton only has a 70% chance here. I would be stunned if Georgetown even keeps is close. Creighton is "last four in" so this would be a hideous loss for them, but they're going to win with ease.
California at Oregon (83%) - Also not happening. Cal is really bad. Devastating for Oregon if they somehow lose.
Arizona State at Washington State (87%) - A win does nothing for the Cougars but a loss realistically ends things for them.
Lafayette at Lehigh (66%) - Just watch how bad this game is and wonder how the hell Rutgers was lucky to go 1-1 against these teams.
There are a few others (BYU, Wyoming, Belmont) but they're so likely to win I didn't bother listing them.
Friday
St. Bonaventure at Saint Louis (76%) - Bonnies had all the hype in the A-10 but they've piled up too many losses for an at-large case. Saint Louis is the 5th team out at the moment on Bracket Matrix. A home loss would be tough at this point.
Fresno State at Colorado State (61%) - CSU currently sits on the 9 line on the matrix. A loss to a solid Fresno State squad wouldn't knock them out but it'd shorten their margin for error. CSU is 18-3 but 6 of their final 7 are tossups (between 34-61% chance of victory).
UNLV at Boise State (79%) - Boise State is even safer than Colorado State, but a loss here weakens the overall MWC profile a bit.
Nevada at Utah State (88%) - Utah State has great computer numbers but two Q4 losses are holding them back. Only in 8 brackets on the matrix. Another ugly loss would mean they'd probably need to sweep @SDSU, @Boise, and Colorado State to recover.
Saturday
San Francisco at Santa Clara (52%) - The Dons are squarely on the bubble. They're currently the last 10 seed but about a third of the brackets aren't yet updated to include their loss to Portland. If they lose here they likely need to win at St. Mary's or home vs. Gonzaga.
Indiana at Michigan State (65%) - We want Sparty to stay Q1.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State (60%) - WVU snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out. They're currently the 3rd team out and maybe the most bubbly of all the bubble teams. Oklahoma State is ineligible for the tournament so we want them taking out as many Big 12 bubble teams as possible.
Notre Dame at Clemson (59%) - Notre Dame is one of the last 4 in at the moment. Plus, obviously, Rutgers beat Clemson.
Murray State (64%) at Morehead State - Murray State would still have an at-large case even with a loss, but they may not be able to withstand a loss to Morehead AND a home loss to Belmont later in the year.
Kansas State at Iowa State - Honestly take your pick. Iowa State is still very safe despite a 3-8 Big 12 record, but I can see them finishing 6-12 and I don't know if the committee has the stomach to put a 6-12 team in even with a 13-0 non-conference record, including some very good wins. On the other hand, Kansas State is clinging to life (listed on just 4 brackets) and they need a road win like this for some juice.
Mississippi State at LSU (75%) - LSU also very safely in despite a recent losing streak. Miss State is in the "next four out" group right now. A road win here would vault them up very close to the field if not in.
Davidson (57%) at Rhode Island - Davidson has a solid at-large resume but they've been playing with fire. It's been a month since they've won a game by double digits.
Miami at Wake Forest (73%) - Take your pick. Miami is an 11, Wake Forest is a 10. The home loss would obviously be more damaging, but perhaps not damaging enough to knock Wake down to the true last 4 in/out bubble.
Oklahoma at Kansas (82%) - Oklahoma is sitting as the last 11 seed. A loss here won't drop them, but a win would put them solidly in.
TCU at Texas Tech (82%) - TCU is solidly in as of now on the 9 line, but they have a mediocre NET (55) and their remaining schedule is a bear: Kansas twice, Texas Tech twice, Baylor and Texas once. They could start piling up losses and fall to the bubble.
Memphis at Houston (88%) - This would be a signature road win for Memphis. They need to beat Houston at least once in their two matchups to get into the picture.
Florida State at North Carolina (77%) - Anything to weaken the Heels' resume is good. UNC sitting on the 11 line because they haven't taken a loss outside the first quadrant. This would be Q3.
Florida at Kentucky (89%) - Florida is the first team out right now. They can handle a loss but a big road win puts them solidly in.
SMU at East Carolina (71%) - SMU just upset Houston to start climbing into the fringes of the conversation. This would shut that down.
Creighton (70%) at Georgetown - The Hoyas just lost to a DePaul team missing like three players, and Patrick Ewing is going to get fired any minute. They have absolutely quit on the season. I can't believe KenPom says Creighton only has a 70% chance here. I would be stunned if Georgetown even keeps is close. Creighton is "last four in" so this would be a hideous loss for them, but they're going to win with ease.
California at Oregon (83%) - Also not happening. Cal is really bad. Devastating for Oregon if they somehow lose.
Arizona State at Washington State (87%) - A win does nothing for the Cougars but a loss realistically ends things for them.
Lafayette at Lehigh (66%) - Just watch how bad this game is and wonder how the hell Rutgers was lucky to go 1-1 against these teams.
There are a few others (BYU, Wyoming, Belmont) but they're so likely to win I didn't bother listing them.
Good info thanks.
Its wild that the last two games put us in a where as we continue a very tough stretch to end the season we are discussing the possibility of the tournament but also staring down a realistic question of whether we will even finish with an overall record above .500.
Crazy times
Excellent summary and analysis. The kind of content that invaluable on this message board. Glad you are coming around on the NET( LOL)
There is a distinct possibility we will have a better record vs Q1 than Q2/3/4 combined. Michigan and/or MSU dropping could put it at 15/15 or 14/16.
Just say we get to 18-12, 4-3 down the stretch.
Right now 5-3, 1-3, 2-2, 6-1, Q1 5-3 0.625 Q2/3/4 9-6 0.600
16 Q1 games, 3-3---8-6, 4-2---9-5
14 Q2/3/4, 1-0---10-6, 0-1---9-7
Such a bizarre resume to figure out but very interesting at the same time.
Just say we get to 18-12, 4-3 down the stretch.
Right now 5-3, 1-3, 2-2, 6-1, Q1 5-3 0.625 Q2/3/4 9-6 0.600
16 Q1 games, 3-3---8-6, 4-2---9-5
14 Q2/3/4, 1-0---10-6, 0-1---9-7
Such a bizarre resume to figure out but very interesting at the same time.
This board is great. Appreciate these write-ups @bac2therac and @kcg88
Jerry loves him some RPI and seems to have not completely accepted that NET is now used. Very odd and that's why you see some of these strange picks from him.
So many moving parts/ugliness on our resume that I think the goal is to be the 4th seed. We are 0.5 gb right now trailing two teams we beat H2H. To get to the 4 would involve enough quality wins to get us in anyway plus only 2 wins for an auto bid to erase all doubt.
You kind of knew eventually Michigan was going to figure it out they have 8 guys on the roster that are consensus top 100 players with Eli Brooks and transfer Devante Jones.
They've got a hell of a schedule the rest of the way. All of their games except against us are Q1. If they get in, they'll have earned it.
We are 2-0 at the start of our 8 game gauntlet and they are 1-1 plus they have to make up games on a tighter schedule. Doubt they will have a better record than us after the gauntlet and likely to take some ugly losses.
good listen here with Bracketville dave on the Kruger podcast...
go to the 6 minute mark and then there will be a Rutgers mention
go to the 6 minute mark and then there will be a Rutgers mention
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