Very rough first crack at Bacatology

[PSAL_Hoops]

You say this after Geo's best game of the season. If all his games looked closer to this you wouldn't see anyone questioning his value with references to being up by 17 on UMASS or beating Purdue. So I ask you, whose fault is that.. is if the fans who see it or the player who built the record to which the fans refer?

Geo's great... sometimes.. sometimes often. We need him... but as "they" say.. you are what your record says you are.

Not true.

Let me put it a different way for you. I don’t care if Geo is having the worst offensive day of his career. He’s a better defensive option and ball handler than Hyatt and Jones who were playing in his stead. Our bench is paper thin - so not havign Geo was big.

But then - I’m also sitting in the camp that we missed Miller’s 4-6 minutes vs. OSU. Hyatt’s ball handling was atrocious. He wasn’t good defensively. Perhaps others would point to the 2 baskets he made and say Miller wouldn’t score (never mind that one was a completely lucky off balance shot at the buzzer and the other he was lucky they didn’t call a charge). When Caleb had to sit in foul trouble I’d much rather have brought in Miller.

And Geo’s overall defense as a senior and ball handling are better than Miller’s so yeah, I’d say we probably missed what he’d have brought in those areas in place of Jones and Hyatt.

 

[kcg88]

No disconnect. Yes being a consistent team is important, and I get how efficiency dictates rank in the NET, but result also seems to dictate rank

Same conference
Oregon #50, 14-7, Q1 2-4 Q2 3-1, 3-2, 6-0
Home 9-3, Away 5-1, N 0-3
Wash St #37, 14-7, Q1 0-1 Q2 2-3, 7-2, 5-1
Home 9-5, Away 5-1, N 0-1

Oregon won @ UCLA by 3, won @ USC by 10(Wash St lost home by 2), won H SMU by 23, won @ Colorado by 15(Wash St lost by 5), won @ Utah by 3(Wash St won by 16)

Oregon lost N BYU by 32, lost N Houston 28, lost N Baylor by 8, H St Mary's by 12, lost @ Stanford by 3(Wash St won by 6), 2 Q3 lost @ASU by 3(won @ ASU by 22), lost H Colorado by 4(won by 27), total of 90 pts better opponents vs 29 pts to lesser opponents.

Common sense say Oregon is the better team despite the 2 losses to BYU and Houston, but because Washington St loses more efficiently they are ranked 13 places higher. That is wrong, that is broken.

Remember that the NET is primarily a sorting tool. There's a reason why Oregon is projected to be in the field now and Washington State isn't. It's merely one component of the process.

 

[bac2therac]

going to crunch some numbers and come up with a rough last 8 in last 8 out as of today. I am pretty sure based on the numbers RU is going to be moved up to last 8 out as of now and I wouldnt rule out putting them in the field at this current moment in time

 

[Eagleton95.99]

The NET and other rankings take in the entirety of the season. But a power ranking, that looks at how good this team is today, would have us in the range of top 25. I think the selection committee weights the recent performance higher. At least I assume so.

 

[kcg88]

The NET and other rankings take in the entirety of the season. But a power ranking, that looks at how good this team is today, would have us in the range of top 25. I think the selection committee weights the recent performance higher. At least I assume so.

They do not. They used to, but not for a long time now.

 

[Eagleton95.99]

They do not. They used to, but not for a long time now.

Interesting. Even if that's the stated criteria, I don't know how that's possible. If it's a human process, and not just a numerical ranking..so of course they are going to factor in recent performance more highly.

 

[bac2therac]

Interesting. Even if that's the stated criteria, I don't know how that's possible. If it's a human process, and not just a numerical ranking..so of course they are going to factor in recent performance more highly.

specifically took it out more than decade ago, as I have said before if you finish the season strong its going to be reflected anyhow in your profile

 

[kcg88]

Interesting. Even if that's the stated criteria, I don't know how that's possible. If it's a human process, and not just a numerical ranking..so of course they are going to factor in recent performance more highly.

I do think there is some tiny benefit to be in the picture for the whole season vs a late riser.

Bac said he might have Rutgers in next 8 out. Nobody else will have that because they haven't given Rutgers a moment of thought all season. But by the time selection Sunday comes around everyone will have been analyzed.

 

[bac2therac]

yeah I think the bracketologists you see fall into recency bias. They are not considering Rutgers because RU has a bad NET and they were not in their original analysis the past few weeks...which is stupid, bracketology is January is ****, its meaningless with 12-14 games left to play. Its based almost entirely on inaccurate NET ratings and non conference stuff with very conference games played.

There is no way that these idiots can have Florida on the last 4 out line and not be considering Rutgers. Furthermore schools like Iowa are not safe at all since their resumes are pretty weak overall. Stanford and Virginia are being penalized solely because of their NET yet their resumes are more impressive than Mississippi State, VCU and Florida. There are probably still 18-20 spots open meaning there are really are about 40 true bubble schools at the moment.

 

[bac2therac]

How absurd is Jerrry Palm..he didnt even have Rutgers in a bubble discussion yesterday or mention them today.

 

[kcg88]

How absurd is Jerrry Palm..he didnt even have Rutgers in a bubble discussion yesterday or mention them today.

I understand it but yeah. Andy Katz is a goof but him getting on tv and hollering about Rutgers is a good thing. Once a few guys start to re evaluate us others will catch on. It's dumb that we're not on any Bubble Watch lists (ESPN, The Athletic) though.

 

[bac2therac]

They use too much predictive value..they believe Rutgers will fair poorly in their next stretch. Field is supposed to be analyzed on CURRENT resume

Palms last 4 in and out is bizarre. He has 20-5 Wake outside the field

 

[fatsam98]

Who are the better bracketologists to pay attention to? Outside of yourself Bac. Palm always seems to have some weird takes.

 

[bac2therac]

Who are the better bracketologists to pay attention to? Outside of yourself Bac. Palm always seems to have some weird takes.

Bracketville Dave..i believe won the Matrix a couple of years ago in fact he has won 3 times

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

List of Q1 wins and record,
8 Q1 wins, Wisconsin 8-4, Baylor 8-3
7 Q1 wins, Marquette 7-6, Kansas 7-3, Purdue, Auburn 7-2
6 Q1 wins, Alabama 6-5 (7)
5 Q1 wins, Iowa St 5-7, Texas Tech 5-6, Villanova 5-5, Kentucky, Illinois, LSU 5-4,
Gonzaga, Arizona 5-2, Duke, Providence, Boise St 5-1 (18)
4 Q1 wins, 11 teams, Rutgers 4-3 (29)
3 Q1 wins, 9 teams (38)
2 Q2 wins, 25 teams (63)

Everyone in the Big 12 is top 75, Kansas St #69, Oklahoma St #61, so they will all play at least 18 Q1s and Q2s until one or two take on too many losses to drop out of the top 75 in the NET.

Includes ineligible Oklahoma St(11-12) 2-9, Kansas St(12-11) 4-9, Maryland(11-12) 3-6, Minnesota(11-10) 2-9, PSU(9-11) 2-8, ASU(7-14) 2-7, Tulane(10-11) 2-2. We are in the conversation of 36 at large bids even with the many blips on the resume, just have to keep winning our share and end all doubt by going at least 3-3 next 6.

Side note,
Pikiell is right on schedule with his coaching at Stony Brook
05-06 4-23(0-1), 2-14/ 15-16 7-24(0-1), 1-17 (Jordan year bottom)
06-07 9-19(0-1), 4-12/ 16-17 14-17(1-1), 3-15
07-08 6-22(1-1), 3-13/ 17-18 13-18(2-1), 3-17
08-09 16-13(0-1), 8-8/ 18-19 14-16(0-1), 7-13
09-10 21-8(1-1,0-1), 13-3/ 19-20 20-11(canc), 11-9
1st AE, NIT, we were a few close losses from a tie for 1st
10-11 13-16(2-1), 8-8/ 20-21 14-10(1-1,1-1), 10-10
Step back both years
11-12 20-8(2-1,0-1), 14-2 21-22 14-9(???) 8-5
Stony Brook started 3-6, finished 20-8
Started 3-3 & 5-5, presently 14-9(8-5 B1G)

Next 4 years at SB were 25-8, 23-11, 23-12, 26-7
Just saying.

 

[Duff366]

Question: who do we root for tonight?

Do we want Michigan and Iowa to win to try to keep them in Quad 1? Or do we want them to lose as they may be competition for the last few tournament spots?

 

[bac2therac]

Michigan is q2 anyhow at home but will be q1 on the road

Root for Iowa tonight

 

[G- RUnit]

I still don't understand the confusion, or if you're even disagreeing with me at this point?

Washington St is significantly ahead of Oregon in adjusted efficiency which completely explains why they are ahead in NET. You don't have to like the NET (I don't particularly like the NET) but it is working as advertised. There is no mystery here, it's clear why Washington St is ranked higher (better efficiency).

I don't really agree that it is "common sense" that Oregon is a better team. If they played on a neutral court tonight Washington St would be favored. But that's sort of a separate discussion.

That’s where NET fails, Oregon would be favored. Almost should let Vegas seed the tourney.

 

[fluoxetine]

That’s where NET fails, Oregon would be favored.

No. No they wouldn’t.

 

[Zak57]

How absurd is Jerrry Palm..he didnt even have Rutgers in a bubble discussion yesterday or mention them today.

Palm seems to have a bias against Rutgers. Not sure why.

 

[G- RUnit]

No. No they

No. No they wouldn’t.

We will watch down the stretch…

 

[fluoxetine]

We will watch down the stretch…

What will that have to do with anything? If they played today on a neutral court, the line would be like Washington St -1.5 or something. What happens down the stretch is completely irrelevant.

 

[bac2therac]

so against my better judgment I did some numbers crunching.....

Here is my last 8 in from safest to last in

1. BYU
2. Oregon
3. Colorado State
4. Oklahoma
5. Miami
6. San Francisco
7. Loyola
8. North Carolina

Last 8 out from closest to furthest out

1. Rutgers
2. West Virginia
3. Stanford
4. San Diego State
5. Virginia
6. Florida
7. Belmont
8. Mississippi State


Currently bracketologists are sleeping on RU's profile because of their overall NET and the Lafayette loss. They are playing catsup.



This is if the field was selected today....The issue will be the RU loss total going forward is going to start becoming a factor and when that happens all the previously mentioned red flags coming into play. ditto for Stanford, Oklahoma and West Virginia will also have issues with their amount of losses, UNC is in over Rutgers despite a lack of quality wins because of the clean profile with no losses outside Q2. We shall see how that goes. I have Loyola as an at large with No Iowa currently in first in the MVC making that a two bid league. Root hard for Loyola to get the AQ because that will open a spot in the field. Still a ways to go but I dont think there will be that many spots available,,the MWC and WCC could get 4 each and that is bad news. Root for them to lose as much as possible.

 

[RuSnp]

How absurd is Jerrry Palm..he didnt even have Rutgers in a bubble discussion yesterday or mention them today.

Wasn't he the outlier guy that had us 'out' forever 2 years ago because of road woes?

 

[bac2therac]

Wasn't he the outlier guy that had us 'out' forever 2 years ago because of road woes?

yes so his schools to have out this year are Wake and UNC the latter does not even make the last 4 out

 

[e5fdny]

so against my better judgment I did some numbers crunching.....

Here is my last 8 in from safest to last in

1. BYU
2. Oregon
3. Colorado State
4. Oklahoma
5. Miami
6. San Francisco
7. Loyola
8. North Carolina

Last 8 out from closest to furthest out

1. Rutgers
2. West Virginia
3. Stanford
4. San Diego State
5. Virginia
6. Florida
7. Belmont
8. Mississippi State


Currently bracketologists are sleeping on RU's profile because of their overall NET and the Lafayette loss. They are playing catsup.



This is if the field was selected today....The issue will be the RU loss total going forward is going to start becoming a factor and when that happens all the previously mentioned red flags coming into play. ditto for Stanford, Oklahoma and West Virginia will also have issues with their amount of losses, UNC is in over Rutgers despite a lack of quality wins because of the clean profile with no losses outside Q2. We shall see how that goes. I have Loyola as an at large with No Iowa currently in first in the MVC making that a two bid league. Root hard for Loyola to get the AQ because that will open a spot in the field. Still a ways to go but I dont think there will be that many spots available,,the MWC and WCC could get 4 each and that is bad news. Root for them to lose as much as possible.

Is that true?

Even if we get no conference tournament upsets?

Those guys can get FOUR each? Wow.

 

[bac2therac]

Is that true?

Even if we get no conference tournament upsets?

Those guys can get FOUR each? Wow.

good chance...right now I have 3 from MWC and 4 from WCC that could flip to 3 and 4 respectively but there is a shot at 4 from each. San Francisco or BYU can play their way out. BYU has lost 4 in a row and the Dons have to play Gonzaga still.

There could be some schools that are above the last 8 in line that end up playing their way out of the field....Iowa State, Indiana, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Creighton

 

[RUScrew85]

Okay as I have said before its just toooooooooooooooooooo early by about a week to dive into this with a full analysis as most schools have 8 if not 10 games still left to play. However since RU still is hanging around the fringes of the bubble, I suppose we need to at least look at the landscape right now

68 bids, 32 automatic qualifiers

here are the 32 projected AQ as of this moment

Gonzaga
Arizona
Houston
Auburn
Kansas
Duke
Illinois
Providence
Murray State
Boise State
Loyola
Davidson
North Texas State
Iona
Vermont
Chattanooga
New Mexico St
South Dakota St
Ohio
Wagner
Jacksonville St
Weber St
Longwood
Cal State Fullerton
Colgate
Appalachian State
Yale
Cleveland State
Norfolk State
Southern
North Carolina Wilmington
New Orleans


Then we have a group of 10 here which are basically locks. Would need to tank season from here on out to miss the tournament.

Kentucky
Purdue
Villanova
Baylor
Texas Tech
Tennessee
UCLA
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Michigan State

That takes care of 42 of 68 spots

The next group of 5 looks like likely locks, seem to have significant wins on their resume to not have to worry too much

Texas
LSU
UConn
Xavier
Marquette


That takes care of 47 of 68 spots leaving 21 open spots

Not sure I can delve into a pecking order until next week.

I think these schools ( in no particular order) rate higher than last 8 in so I will list these 13 first as safer than then those

Alabama
USC
St Mary's
Iowa State
Arkansas
Indiana
Iowa
Seton Hall
TCU
Wyoming
San Francisco
Miami
Wake Forest

These schools above are in no ways safe. Some of these schools like USC, Wake and Arkansas have gaudy overall records but thin on quality wins. Schools like Wyoming, San Francisco, and St Marys being part of high mid majors have to keep winning.

That get us to 60 spots and 8 left, for now here are my last 8 in

Oregon
Creighton
BYU
Colorado State
Stanford
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Notre Dame

These 8 are extremely vulnerable for various reasons. Some have great wins like Oregon, Creighton, and BYU but have suffered some bad losses. Some like UNC, Colorado State and Notre Dame have very little on their resume but have fairly clean profiles. It was extremely tough to figure out the last 2 in....both UNC and ND are paper tigers.

With 8 games to play I am thinking the bubble is pretty weak until some of these schools start winning big games. This next grouping of 8 based on their profiles are next in line to get bids but most have only one or two quality wins and some have some bad losses.


'
Here is my last 5 out...only going this far because after this its so hard to seperate the rest

San Diego State
Mississippi State
Kansas State
West Virginia
Florida

I have identified another 17 schools competing for at large bids making a ground total of 22 on the outside looking in

Going to group them by their situations

High mid majors needing as many quality wins as they can get

VCU
Utah State
Memphis
SMU
Cincinnati
St Louis

Major conference schools lacking quality wins

Michigan
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Texas A&M
Virginia

Schools with quality wins but also bad losses

Rutgers
Dayton
Vanderbilt
Florida State

Smaller conference schools who could easily be AQs but have also longshot at large hopes

Belmont
UAB



Normally I show my work and I will next week with stats and rankings and such but will take questions here where I can get more in depths on specific teams and scenerios.

Way to attention seek, BasketballWeather-Al, LOLOL

 

[kcg88]

No exciting results tonight. Stanford and Washington State falling is good news. Pac-12 looking like a clear 4 bid league. Washington State now 0-3 in quad 1 with three quad 3/4 losses. Still have some chances left but all on the road.

They'll remain far ahead of us in NET but our resume is much much better.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I think Virginia should be closer to in than you have them and sadly I feel like they are ahead of RU.

1) their bad losses are a little less bad. 2) their wins @ Duke and Providence (neutral) are huge - bigger than anything on our resume. 3) they already have 4 road wins and 2 neutral wins.

 

[bac2therac]

you are giving Duke too much credit. Plus their NC State loss is very close to becoming their 4 Q3 loss

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

you are giving Duke too much credit. Plus their NC State loss is very close to becoming their 4 Q3 loss

They are a projected 2 seed. It was a road win. You’ve been saying you’d trade a road win at Indiana or Michigan for a home win over any of the remaining top teams on our schedule. None of our wins are as good as that one.

Providence is a projected 3 seed - neutral win. Outside of Purdue (home), we haven’t beaten anyone projected better than a 4 seed - all at home.

 

[bac2therac]

And...

 

[kcg88]

Oh man BYU needed overtime to beat Loyola Marymount. That would have been brutal for them and the WCC.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

And...

And -

the bottom line is that unfortunately
those two signature wins will blow away most bubble teams best 2 wins on selection day since they are both away from home (even if Duke is overrated). Providence only has one other loss besides UVA.

If we’re tied with UVA in total losses, they likely get selected ahead of us - unless we pick up a road win at either Wisconsin or Purdue.

 

[bac2therac]

And -

the bottom line is that unfortunately
those two signature wins will blow away most bubble teams best 2 wins on selection day since they are both away from home (even if Duke is overrated). Providence only has one other loss besides UVA.

If we’re tied with UVA in total losses, they likely get selected ahead of us - unless we pick up a road win at either Wisconsin or Purdue.

Lets see what happens in the next stretch of 4 for Virginia

You do realize the 6 Q1 opportunities for RU coming up

 

[kcg88]

UNC now has a Q1 win thanks to Michigan.

 

[bac2therac]

UNC now has a Q1 win thanks to Michigan.

That was an almost unheard of rise after one win. Wow

 

[kcg88]

That was an almost unheard of rise after one win. Wow

I was surprised that Michigan moved up so much and Iowa only moved a spot for a 23 point road win (over a Q3 but still).

 

[camps116]

Rutgers adds its 5th Q1 win!

moves down one spot in the NET...