So how do you interpret why Frost and staff are locking these less than heavily recruited guys in early?
Does it mean they are being stupid recruiters, not understanding that we could wait on these guys? Not likely. Does it mean they are panicking because they have been told by the better guys they are recruiting "no thanks"? Again... not likely. Or does it mean that they see something in these recruits that they really like, despite their average star rankings and lack of big offers? I think that is likely. So it would seem then that at this stage of the game that we, as fans, can either say "I trust this staff and their eye for talent, given what they accomplished at UCF with lower ranked guys", or we can say "I am worried that our recruiting is subpar and I think our coaches are making a mistake here". I choose the former.
Not really part of this particular discussion but....
Classes fill very quickly these days. Right now, for 2020, Miami as 12, bama and OSU have 6 commits. They are much more spread out among teams these days with kids committing early. If you read the two articles on recruiting that I linked they talked about kids committing earlier, like as soon as allowed in HS and they are being followed from JH. I don't have numbers to back this up but it seems reasonable that with the onslaught of players committing early, the better ones will have their pick and are making the decision earlier. That would leave the slightly less rated ones for everyone else. I also learned that reading those articles, that offer lists can be pretty bogus. So as the top teams fill up, who would be left for the second tier of teams?
I too trust the staff to take the best available, but who really knows what that is? I find it hard to believe that the "eye for talent" only belongs to the kids we have got to commit. That would mean some of these others schools are missing out. Also, no one can tell me that among the higher rated kids that we have no interest in them.
I don't buy this recruit to fit your scheme thing. What the heck is that all about? You mean this coaching staff that is so highly valued can't take a 4-5 * and make them better? WR's still catch, RB's still run, linemen still block so while there are some fits in all this to use that as a sole reason is bogus. I can hear a coach right now - well ya, that kid is an awesome athlete, consensus 5* but he just doesn't fit our O or D? hmmm
The advantages that TO had years ago are gone and comparing today to then is difficult. TO was doing things no one had even imagined. Now everyone does it. His big thing as far as I am concerned was his ability to see everything including the great athletes that others didn't see but at the same time he had a team of coaches behind him to help them and great talent around them. As has been pointed out, this formula worked for many years but guess what, we couldn't beat the Miami's, Florida States, and a few others because although better coached, we didn't have the horses. Get the horses and the coaching and you have the combination and that is what he did.
There also were no star ratings in TO's day. So people have to quit that comparison. the original stats presented by Tuco were the correlation between highly rated classes and the NC. Are there exceptions? Sure, but when was the last one in this era? I also agree that comparing to Wisconsin is a fools game eventually. We have to set our sights on them for now because they are the kings of our division and that is where it starts. But eventually we have to do much much better than that.
It will take a while for this to all happen, not over night. that's why I don't participate in the game of predicting how many wins we will have. to be accurate you have to know your team and the opponent.
Now that should be enough ammo for someone to come back and disagree with!