Twitter discussion from yesterday - in it's current state...

dawgstudent

Heisman
Apr 15, 2003
40,725
22,920
113
in relation to fundraising, facilities, etc - would MSU ever get to a 10 win/year average?

What would it take to get there? Could it get to 10 wins/season average?
 

philduckworth

Redshirt
Feb 20, 2015
2,228
0
0
10 wins/season average? How many teams in the country do that? 4, 5? Now imagine those teams played in the SEC West.

Anyone wanting to average 10 wins a year is saying they want us to become Alabama. That's silly.
 

aTotal360

Heisman
Nov 12, 2009
22,661
16,671
113
If Jeff Bezos latched on to MSU football and moved to Starkville, we'd might have a chance.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
61,304
33,002
113
No. We'll never get to 10 wins/year average. The only SEC school with 100 wins in the last 10 years is Alabama.
 

Wizard.sixpack

Freshman
Sep 15, 2009
6,511
58
48
Don't think it will ever happen. As stated before, not many teams are able to accomplish a 10 win a year average. Averaging 8 is a real accomplishment with the prospect of winning 10+ every 3 or 4 years. But we havent even got to that point... yet. In recent years it has felt like we were on the cusp of something but never had all the pieces. Mullen is finally getting his type of QB's committing which is huge. That will lead to better WR's committing and so on. With the destruction of the guys up north, we should be able to mop up a majority of in-state talent for the next few years which will make us even stronger. Sometime turning the corner is a slow process, especially playing in the SEC WEST, but I feel like we are well on our way to making that turn. Thank you Rebels for giving this transition a boost!
 
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Willow Grove Dawg

All-American
Nov 3, 2016
8,549
6,354
113
Not gonna happen

Quickly - name the schools that have "averaged" 10 wins for the last 5 years, 10 years?

This will be a pretty damned short list if we we only include Power 5 Conference Teams for a 10 year or more period. My guess would be less than 5.

We have actually averaged 8 wins per year 2010-2016 (56 wins in 7 years). We just need to avoid falling below 6 regular season wins EVER.

More realistic would be to consistently average 9 wins per year.
 
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Sapsdawg

Redshirt
Nov 15, 2005
354
1
18
I think those EXPECTING a 10 win per season average will be chasing coaches in perpetuity. I saw Hadad's discussion on twitter and why he's arguing with those fools is beyond me. Having the 13th athletic budget in dollar amounts but 3rd best record among SEC teams in the last several years is waaaaay overachieving. Give the budget another 25 - 50 mill per year and what you do is cut out your down years and move your floor up from 5 to 8 and you'll average about 9. Every so often you'll get to 12 with that kind of budget. To go 10-2 every year is damn difficult when playing Bama, Auburn, A&M, LSU, etc every. single. year.
 

Arthur2478

Redshirt
Oct 17, 2010
1,407
2
38
What would it take to get there? Could it get to 10 wins/season average?

Averaging 10 wins is not a reasonable expectation. There are literally only 3 teams in the country that have averaged 10 wins per season in this millennium.

Since 2000 (thru 2016):

Team: Total Wins (Avg)
Boise St: 186 (10.9)
Oklahoma: 183 (10 .8)eight)
Ohio State: 181 (10.6)
LSU: 168 (9.9)
ALabama: 165 (9.7)
USC: 164 (9.6)
Florida State: 163 (9.6)
Oregon: 160 (9.4)
Florida: 156 (9.2)
Clemson: 155 (9.1)
 
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Willow Grove Dawg

All-American
Nov 3, 2016
8,549
6,354
113
Boise State should not even be considered for this conversation. We would be averaging 10 wins per year in that league.
 

philduckworth

Redshirt
Feb 20, 2015
2,228
0
0
That must have been a stimulating conversation on Twitter. Hate I missed it.

It's the wrong question. A better question is what has to happen for us to make a move to the next level. There was a decent discussion about that on elitedawgs the other day.
 

FQDawg

Senior
May 1, 2006
3,076
618
113
I did the math on this earlier this summer... In the 30 years before Mullen arrived, we had an average record of 5 wins and 6 losses.

In Mullen's eight years, he's essentially bumped that floor up by two wins a year. In his eight years, we're at an average record of 7.6 wins and 5 losses... which basically says we're a 7-5 team with the opportunity to win an 8th game in a bowl game (which we've won more often that not under Mullen).

Given our history and the conference we play in, that two game bump is pretty impressive. But to think we can bump that average up another three games anytime soon, again given the conference we play in and the lack of resources we have relative to most of those other schools, is just wishful thinking.
 
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dawgstudent

Heisman
Apr 15, 2003
40,725
22,920
113
What is the next level? We currently average 8 wins/season if you take out Mullen's first season.

Next level is 9-10.
 

8dog

All-American
Feb 23, 2008
15,298
7,722
113
No

Not enough money
Terrible in state economy
Terrible geography
Subpar HS coaching in state

need enrollment to get to 30k and have a reason for alums to stay in state. Cannot really change some of this

how many schools avg 10 wins with less than 80k capacity

eta- i consider number of wins to be reg season. Bowls dont count
 
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aTotal360

Heisman
Nov 12, 2009
22,661
16,671
113
You build the end-all, Taj Mahal of football complexes, stadium and support system, and you'll get Oregon type results as long as your coach is great. Not to mention you could pay enough to keep assistants a little longer than what we do.
 

ababyatemydingo

All-Conference
Nov 27, 2008
4,152
3,164
113
If Jeff Bezos latched on to MSU football and moved to Starkville, we'd might have a chance.

Oregon has Phil Knight's money, and can't stay there. Oklahoma State has T. Boone Pickens' money, and can't stay there. It takes a rare combination of 'things' to be a consistent 10 win a year team.
 

57stratdawg

Heisman
Dec 1, 2004
148,780
24,661
113
We can be an 8 win program and win an SEC Championship with a ‘lightning in the bottle’ year. We’ll never win 100 games in 10 years, IMO.

The problem is the gap between a Dan Mullen coached team and legitimate contender. We always seem to lose those games by 3+ TDs. I think MSU football could have a higher ceiling than that while averaging 8 wins per year.
 

FQDawg

Senior
May 1, 2006
3,076
618
113
I have my doubts... but maybe.

How long has he been propping up Oklahoma State? I'd be curious to know how long it took them to rise after he got involved. They've obviously been a half-step outside the top tier for the last 9-10 years but their average win total since 2000 is "only" 7.7 wins per season.

The Miles to Gundy transition worked for them but it'll be interesting to see how they fare once Gundy is gone.
 

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
61,304
33,002
113
The difference between 8 and 9 wins per season is a lot bigger than the difference between 7 and 8 wins. The difference between 9 and 10 wins is even bigger. In the last 10 years, only 4 schools have averaged 9.5 wins per year. 8 averaged from 8.5-9.5, 15 from 7.5-8.5, and 27 from 6.5-7.5. The higher you go, the harder it is to make that jump to the next level.

Edit: BTW, we're at 67-48 and UMiss is at 61-53 in the last 10 years.
 
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philduckworth

Redshirt
Feb 20, 2015
2,228
0
0
What is the next level? We currently average 8 wins/season if you take out Mullen's first season.

Next level is 9-10.

To me the next level is being more competitive against the upper echelon teams year in and year out. We are close right now. Just need to recruit slightly better at a couple of skill positions like WR and Corner.
 

philduckworth

Redshirt
Feb 20, 2015
2,228
0
0
We can be an 8 win program and win an SEC Championship with a ‘lightning in the bottle’ year. We’ll never win 100 games in 10 years, IMO.

The problem is the gap between a Dan Mullen coached team and legitimate contender. We always seem to lose those games by 3+ TDs. I think MSU football could have a higher ceiling than that while averaging 8 wins per year.

Yep, I agree with this. Saban retiring would certainly help things. Their roster is so ridiculous right now. Overall, the SEC is down as far as coaches. Key's senior year would be a great time to make a run. Need to build a team to make a run for the West in 2020 while winning 8 games a year along the way.
 

HD6

Sophomore
Apr 8, 2003
10,019
108
63
He made his first huge donation, $165 million, after the 2005 season. Three years later they were 9-4. Five years later they were 12-1. They have had a couple of missteps, but they've won 10 games each of the last two seasons, so four double-digit win seasons since 2010. They had enjoyed three such seasons in their entire history prior to 2010.

Phil Knight was already doing quite a bit for Oregon when he donated 100 million in 2007 to the Ducks. After that donation, Oregon, which was already enjoying success but not consistently, reeled off seven straight double digit win seasons before it came to a halt last year and they fired their coach. If Chip Kelly hadn't been stupid and got caught using a runner, they'd still be rolling, I have no doubt.

This is literally one of the stupidest arguments ever. College football is a business. What business doesn't do well when it receives a huge injection of capital and puts people who understand how to use that money effectively in charge? MSU is already doing that latter part, we are dead last in budgets but our sports are by and large in really good shape. I'm supposed to believe that a monster donation wouldn't benefit the athletic department immensely and help level the playing field with the traditional powers of the conference?
 

Bulldog from Birth

All-Conference
Jan 23, 2007
2,563
1,170
113
The jump we need to take is that we need to boost our max potential in the outlier years. Right now our outlier year max is 10-2. We need to get to the point where that once every 8-10 year outlier is 11-1 or 12-0. That’s a lot easier job than averaging 10 wins per year. And if we can sustain this level of recruiting, that will be in reach.
 

FQDawg

Senior
May 1, 2006
3,076
618
113
I don't disagree with your logic but I think any investment in Mississippi State would have to be accompanied by an investment in Starkville (which you know the blue hairs in the community would fight tooth and nail). We're the smallest town in the SEC. Other than Oxford, it isn't close - every other SEC town has at least 3x the population.

Stillwater is double the size of Starkville. Eugene has 160,000 people in it. So those aren't exactly apples-to-apples comparisons.

I love Starkville. I left a larger city to move back here last year. But it's not dishonest to say that its small size can work against us in recruiting.
 

HD6

Sophomore
Apr 8, 2003
10,019
108
63
I'm just picturing John Cohen saying "Well, we appreciate the donation, but we're not sure it'll help that much."
 

aTotal360

Heisman
Nov 12, 2009
22,661
16,671
113
Slight Hijack: Could Saban and his staff could average 10 wins in Starkville? That's damn near what it would take. If Daddy Warbucks hired Saban away from Bama, do you think he could do it. Because he's about the only person on the planet that could.
 

dawgstudent

Heisman
Apr 15, 2003
40,725
22,920
113
Why would he say that? Even if I don't think it would help, I would never say that as AD.
 

philduckworth

Redshirt
Feb 20, 2015
2,228
0
0
I'm just picturing John Cohen saying "Well, we appreciate the donation, but we're not sure it'll help that much."

That's silly of course. Money would help, but I don't think money is only issue or even the main issue. See 8dog's post.
 

HD6

Sophomore
Apr 8, 2003
10,019
108
63
You said it. I'm just trying to apply your logic. You said you didn't think it would be that big a help. Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds now?
 

dawgstudent

Heisman
Apr 15, 2003
40,725
22,920
113
No. I don't think it would help significantly as money is not the only limiting factor. But as a fundraiser - I would never turn it down.
 

HD6

Sophomore
Apr 8, 2003
10,019
108
63
I just disagree. We've gotten this far with all these disadvantages, a massive influx of capital would put us over the top. Especially when you consider we can't change the location of the school or the talent pool in-state.

I only have the two examples, but both of those programs took a big step forward with those donations. If you can find a program that received similar money from a single booster and didn't flourish, I'd like to see it.
 

kendesu

Redshirt
Oct 1, 2014
287
0
0
Since Mullen arrived in Starkville, only one SEC team has averaged 10 wins per season: Alabama.
 

philduckworth

Redshirt
Feb 20, 2015
2,228
0
0
I just disagree. We've gotten this far with all these disadvantages, a massive influx of capital would put us over the top. Especially when you consider we can't change the location of the school or the talent pool in-state.

I only have the two examples, but both of those programs took a big step forward with those donations. If you can find a program that received similar money from a single booster and didn't flourish, I'd like to see it.

Those programs received that money before the huge TV deals. We have a mini-T. Boone Pickens and he's called the SEC Network.

Also, I know we don't have the most storied history, but Oregon was rock bottom. It's was easier to move from where they were to where they are; compared with where we are now to where you are talking about us going. See patdog's post, the next jump is extremely difficult and it really comes down to recruiting.
 
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