Toughness

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,417
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As the year goes on , I am finding it harder and harder to do any meaningful comparison between last year’s team and this year’s. The only role that has not changed is maybe Cliff’s.

Paul , Caleb , Mag , and Aundre ‘s roles have changed and add inCam , Derek and Wolf with limited Dean and it is just a different team. Clearly Paul and Caleb deferred to Ron and Geo for offense except for Paul’s 5 game spurt and Caleb’s Notre Dame performance. Now they are the main men on offense at guard every single game and have to score double digits to get to where we want to go. It took Ron and Geo going into shooting slumps to have Pike and the team to unleash Paul’s full offensive game. Last night against Purdue is the first time we have seen it this year and it will be coming fast and furious from here on in. Plus Paul now has his shooting partner and roommate Cam to give him another passing option besides Cliff in PNR and for lobs, which is different than last year. Because we literally have and should continue to have 5 guys in double figures every game and not just Ron and Geo the team is more well rounded offensively than last year.

Caleb has done more isolation and pulling up for jumpers this year as well whereas he was almost exclusively a defensive specialist last year. His role was different as evidenced in the Miami game , but he has also struggled in some other games Seton Hall and Purdue.

Frankly , I see Mag’s role as the biggest change. Mag is almost a 1 man press and having him hound the ball 94 feet make us an elite defense that we have not seen since the Nolan Richardson Arkansas teams or our own Final Four team . We are the best pressing team in the country and it is not close and it leads to turnovers , run outs , fast breaks and dunks. , where we play better than our half court offense. Plus it gives us spurtability that prior teams did not have consistently and we have this year. Mag’s foul trouble as well as the whole team’s foul trouble had Pike call off the press in the second half against Purdue and he took a gamble that he would still be able to beat Purdue in a half court game that they excel at ( Top 1-5 in Kenpom) . I did not like the move but Pike because of foul trouble felt he had to call off the press. Mag has to stay out of foul trouble to unleash our full potential.

Regarding worrying about minutes in the Purdue game that is just silly. That game was a war , a test of wills especially in the second half. I surely did not want Paul or Caleb leaving the court and foul trouble limited options anyway . No Mag and no Caleb on the court affect our elite defense . If we do at home what we have done to a bunch of teams there , then Paul andCaleb’s and Cliff’s minutes can be reduced but not when you are playing #1 in the type of game it was at Purdue. Which was described very aptly by Coach Painter , “ Rutgers plays really hard for keeps , if we are going to war we are going to stop by Jersey and get those guys. “. You cannot judge or make general statements about minutes allocation using the Purdue game as an example. Read the room.
 
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fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
@Greene Rice FIG If you want to bring expectations back to the middle the thing to harp on IMO is 3-point percentage defense. This is the thing that worries me the most about this team; teams are shooting 24.9% against us from three and that is not all defense. A lot of that is luck. How much.. debatable.. but last year for the whole season the absolute best 3p% defense was 26.9% (from a team that was 67th in adjusted D per Bart).

It's much more reasonable to assume teams shoot closer to 30% against us going forward rather than 25%. All else equal this would take our 3rd ranked defense to ~18th and our #16 overall kenpom rating to ~50th.

I'm not saying this will happen, but it isn't an unreasonable fear.
 
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mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
55,607
51,272
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2nd half
Paul played 18:10
Caleb played 18:50

If this team was truly deep those 2 players aren’t on the court that much. The intensity is not sustainable over the next 2 months. Pike has to use the bench.

Getting 2 more wins would go a long way to feeling more comfortable using the bench as a loss wouldn’t be catastrophic,

Look at Purdues minutes. Painter is playing the long game.
We were playing the #1 team in the nation. Makes sense to lean on your experienced players in that game.

If we're a good team, we'll create more opportunities to rest players in other games against other teams. I'm more concerned with how effective Pike will be at curing the periodic scoring lapses where the offense gets away from using movement with (and off) the ball to produce good shot opportunities. I think that's our biggest weakness at the moment and if we fix it, we could easily be a top 8 team, IMO.

Except it's really, really hard to fix something like that, I think. You need 7-8 players to improve their composure and composure's a hard thing to coach, at least compared to technical skills or tactical awareness.
 

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
Well reasoned.

The only thing I can really disagree on is that we are a bubble team (right now based on current / not future resume). As flawed as the current rankings might be on Jan 4, if the season had to end today Rutgers would be safely in the Tourney. Miami and OSU have more than a pulse - they are Q1 games on the road. OSU also might even have considerations of circumstance especially with the admission of officiating mistake by the BIG. SHU was a bad loss - but a rivalry game. Temple was a bad loss - had injuries of circumstance. Even without any extenuating circumstance, RU's NET and other rankings are pretty high. RU would factor somewhere between a 7-10 seed IMO, which is not on the bubble.
Committee doesn’t care about rivalries and barely cares about injuries. Think about all the other teams with less than 3 losses. We know our schedule will be good, but right now it isn’t.
 
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Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
@Greene Rice FIG If you want to bring expectations back to the middle the thing to harp on IMO is 3-point percentage defense. This is the thing that worries me the most about this team; teams are shooting 24.9% against us from three and that is not all defense. A lot of that is luck. How much.. debatable.. but last year for the whole season the absolute best 3p% defense was 26.9% (from a team that was 67th in adjusted D per Bart).

It's much more reasonable to assume teams shoot closer to 30% against us going forward rather than 25%. All else equal this would take our 3rd ranked defense to ~18th and our #16 overall kenpom rating to ~50th.

I'm not saying this will happen, but it isn't an unreasonable fear.
I am worried about that. I think your math and logic are sound.
 

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
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We were playing the #1 team in the nation. Makes sense to lean on your experienced players in that game.

If we're a good team, we'll create more opportunities to rest players in other games against other teams. I'm more concerned with how effective Pike will be at curing the periodic scoring lapses where the offense gets away from using movement with (and off) the ball to produce good shot opportunities. I think that's our biggest weakness at the moment and if we fix it, we could easily be a top 8 team, IMO.

Except it's really, really hard to fix something like that, I think. You need 7-8 players to improve their composure and composure's a hard thing to coach, at least compared to technical skills or tactical awareness.
I agree with you and am 100% on board with the minute allocation vs Purdue and your fear. Pike has tough decisions to make and I know he is well aware of the big picture. When there is an opportunity you take it.

If it is mid February and we are playing a close one in the beginning of the 2nd half with Penn State and we are 4 games over .500 in B1G (making stuff up as I don’t have schedule up) I’d hope he roll the dice and play Simpson/Miller/? 13 minutes in the half so Paul,Caleb and Cam get rest
 
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mildone_rivals

Heisman
Dec 19, 2011
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I agree with you and am 100% on board with the minute allocation vs Purdue and your fear. Pike has tough decisions to make and I know he is well aware of the big picture. When there is an opportunity you take it.

If it is mid February and we are playing a close one in the beginning of the 2nd half with Penn State and we are 4 games over .500 in B1G (making stuff up as I don’t have schedule up) I’d hope he roll the dice and play Simpson/Miller/? 13 minutes in the half so Paul,Caleb and Cam get rest
Pike is often criticized in game threads by our fanbase for playing non-starters too much. A lot of that is just fans allowing emotions to cause them to panic instead of thinking strategically. But it seems to me that Pike uses opportunities to rest players pretty often, even in close games.

It’s a balancing act and I’m glad I can just sit back and watch and be entertained rather than have to be responsible for the decision making. I think Pike gets it right more often than not, even in most losses.
 

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
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As an emotional fan I am trusting 6 guys!!!!!

I think/know Pike has a game plan on when players are rested and for how long. I think he sticks to it as best he can in the 1st half.

Pike has never had the ability in his tenure to have NCAAs “in the bag” and be able to coach purely for the long game. I want us to rack up some wins so he can. He can pull a Painter or Izzo and have a firm minutes cap or allow a team to play through mistakes and not use a timeout.
 
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rufeelinit

All-Conference
May 16, 2010
12,647
4,351
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I like our depth better this year than last. Before the Purdue game this year, BTN did a one hour replay of the game at the RAC last years. While Geo was out, I was still surprised at who got minutes in that game for us. Miller, Jones, Palmquist, Agee and Reiber all played in that game. Some more than I remembered. I think our top 8 with Reiber and Miller at 9 and 10 is better than last year.
 

RAC’emUp

All-Conference
Jul 20, 2011
2,191
2,535
57
@Greene Rice FIG If you want to bring expectations back to the middle the thing to harp on IMO is 3-point percentage defense. This is the thing that worries me the most about this team; teams are shooting 24.9% against us from three and that is not all defense. A lot of that is luck. How much.. debatable.. but last year for the whole season the absolute best 3p% defense was 26.9% (from a team that was 67th in adjusted D per Bart).

It's much more reasonable to assume teams shoot closer to 30% against us going forward rather than 25%. All else equal this would take our 3rd ranked defense to ~18th and our #16 overall kenpom rating to ~50th.

I'm not saying this will happen, but it isn't an unreasonable fear.
Interesting. On a hopeful note, I wonder whether our general defensive intensity affects even open 3’s, perhaps because shots are rushed, the shooter is tired or other related factors.
 
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MiloTalon13

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Jun 3, 2022
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As the year goes on , I am finding it harder and harder to do any meaningful comparison between last year’s team and this year’s. The only role that has not changed is maybe Cliff’s.

Paul , Caleb , Mag , and Aundre ‘s roles have changed and add inCam , Derek and Wolf with limited Dean and it is just a different team. Clearly Paul and Caleb deferred to Ron and Geo for offense except for Paul’s 5 game spurt and Caleb’s Notre Dame performance. Now they are the main men on offense at guard every single game and have to score double digits to get to where we want to go. It took Ron and Geo going into shooting slumps to have Pike and the team to unleash Paul’s full offensive game. Last night against Purdue is the first time we have seen it this year and it will be coming fast and furious from here on in. Plus Paul now has his shooting partner and roommate Cam to give him another passing option besides Cliff in PNR and for lobs, which is different than last year. Because we literally have and should continue to have 5 guys in double figures every game and not just Ron and Geo the team is more well rounded offensively than last year.

Caleb has done more isolation and pulling up for jumpers this year as well whereas he was almost exclusively a defensive specialist last year. His role was different as evidenced in the Miami game , but he has also struggled in some other games Seton Hall and Purdue.

Frankly , I see Mag’s role as the biggest change. Mag is almost a 1 man press and having him hound the ball 94 feet make us an elite defense that we have not seen since the Nolan Richardson Arkansas teams or our own Final Four team . We are the best pressing team in the country and it is not close and it leads to turnovers , run outs , fast breaks and dunks. , where we play better than our half court offense. Plus it gives us spurtability that prior teams did not have consistently and we have this year. Mag’s foul trouble as well as the whole team’s foul trouble had Pike call off the press in the second half against Purdue and he took a gamble that he would still be able to beat Purdue in a half court game that they excel at ( Top 1-5 in Kenpom) . I did not like the move but Pike because of foul trouble felt he had to call off the press. Mag has to stay out of foul trouble to unleash our full potential.

Regarding worrying about minutes in the Purdue game that is just silly. That game was a war , a test of wills especially in the second half. I surely did not want Paul or Caleb leaving the court and foul trouble limited options anyway . No Mag and no Caleb on the court affect our elite defense . If we do at home what we have done to a bunch of teams there , then Paul andCaleb’s and Cliff’s minutes can be reduced but not when you are playing #1 in the type of game it was at Purdue. Which was described very aptly by Coach Painter , “ Rutgers plays really hard for keeps , if we are going to war we are going to stop by Jersey and get those guys. “. You cannot judge or make general statements about minutes allocation using the Purdue game as an example. Read the room.
Fantastic analysis. How Pikiell allows each of these guys to get maximum results from their abilities is amazing. I love how he coaches to maximize the players that he has rather than making players fit his system. The only non-negotiable is giving max effort on D. I LOVE this roster and I LOVE this season.
 
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fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Interesting. On a hopeful note, I wonder whether our general defensive intensity affects even open 3’s, perhaps because shots are rushed, the shooter is tired or other related factors.
It certainly does, to an extent. But history suggests that it can't affect it so much to drop opponents 3-point percentage all the way to 25%.

Kenpom has done some analysis on this:

For the most part, teams don't take threes unless they are open (obviously there are exceptions, like rushed end of shot clock threes). So the defense really prevents attempts more than it prevents them being made. And if Pike's defense has one weakness it's that we actually give up a lot of three point attempts. So far 42.3% of opponent's shots have been threes which is #307 in the country (with fewer being better).
 
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Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
15,224
11,040
113
It certainly does, to an extent. But history suggests that it can't affect it so much to drop opponents 3-point percentage all the way to 25%.

Kenpom has done some analysis on this:

For the most part, teams don't take threes unless they are open (obviously there are exceptions, like rushed end of shot clock threes). So the defense really prevents attempts more than it prevents them being made. And if Pike's defense has one weakness it's that we actually give up a lot of three point attempts. So far 42.3% of opponent's shots have been threes which is #307 in the country (with fewer being better).
I don't buy fewer being better.
That's assumes the available 3 is being chosen over otherwise equal opportunities. If or interview defense is tougher, a bad three looks better
 
Feb 5, 2003
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Our opponents have been shooting around 20 3's per game (22.857), so the difference between 25% and 30% is only one more bucket going in. Obviously, that's a big swing in a one possession game, but we might not have a lot of those. It could bring our NET down slightly even in wins.

Purdue went 7-23 (30.4%) from long range on Monday. Their 3 Pt% on the season is 30.5%. We were still able to overcome that in the toughest road game we will play this season. "Ain't gonna be no rematch" in the regular season.

Ohio State went 8-19 (42.1%) and needed every one of those, including the low % buzzer beater, to steal the win at their place.

The Temple loss was more about Caleb/Paul being out and us shooting 1-16 from 3 than it was Temple going 9-29 (31%). I don't expect another 1-16 night as long as we have all of our starters healthy.

Miami went 6-18 (33%) and we lost it from a cold streak on our part. That could happen again.

Indiana went 6-25. Even if that was 8-25 (32%), we would've won comfortably.

Maryland is next up. They're shooting 30.8% on the year, 12th in the league.

Iowa's defense is its usual this season, and their 3Pt% is only 31.7% to date. Plus, they may be without Pat McC.

Northwestern's kenpom rankings are similar to ours, with a much lower offense and a slightly weaker defense.
 

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
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I don't buy fewer being better.
That's assumes the available 3 is being chosen over otherwise equal opportunities. If or interview defense is tougher, a bad three looks better
Fewer is better in the ranking. I would agree it's not obvious that fewer is always better but a high number is generally not a positive thing.
 
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Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
15,224
11,040
113
Fewer is better in the ranking. I would agree it's not obvious that fewer is always better but a high number is generally not a positive thing.
Like so many metrics, valance depends on context. And often the very best look like the very worst because they use a different curve from the typical
 
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fluoxetine

Heisman
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23,529
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Like so many metrics, valance depends on context. And often the very best look like the very worst because they use a different curve from the typical
In theory there should be a Nash equilibrium somewhere with an optimal 3p rate.

But the metric in this case tells the story you can see with your eyes; Pike’s defenses gamble in ways that lead to open 3s when they fail. The results are obviously very good overall, but the large number of 3 point attempts isn’t a feature; it’s fairly clear that if we could reduce that without hurting other parts of the defense we would be better off (at least when opponents aren’t shooting 25% from three which will not continue long term)
 

Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
15,224
11,040
113
In theory there should be a Nash equilibrium somewhere with an optimal 3p rate.

But the metric in this case tells the story you can see with your eyes; Pike’s defenses gamble in ways that lead to open 3s when they fail. The results are obviously very good overall, but the large number of 3 point attempts isn’t a feature; it’s fairly clear that if we could reduce that without hurting other parts of the defense we would be better off (at least when opponents aren’t shooting 25% from three which will not continue long term)
I often agree with you, but not here. He is baiting opens to take 3's and making them pay when they don't
 

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
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I often agree with you, but not here. He is baiting opens to take 3's and making them pay when they don't
I don’t think so, at least not most of the time (maybe in specific situations against specific players). I don’t think Pike would describe it that way either.. I think he is knowingly making the trade off I describe. He can live with the open threes because it’s the consequence of the defense he wants to play but he doesn’t *want* them.
 

Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
15,224
11,040
113
Not looking to split hairs. It is good for us that our interior D is such that 3s appear to be the more attractive option than midrange or the paint. And if we hurry up the passes just a bit, or the shots or both we further our advantage...
 
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MiloTalon13

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I don't buy fewer being better.
That's assumes the available 3 is being chosen over otherwise equal opportunities. If or interview defense is tougher, a bad three looks better
Fewer = better is probably a valid overall assumption
RU defense is an exception - would be interesting how many of those are contested/late in the shot clock/low quality.
 
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fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
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Not looking to split hairs. It is good for us that our interior D is such that 3s appear to be the more attractive option than midrange or the paint. And if we hurry up the passes just a bit, or the shots or both were further our advantage...
Agree with you in general, though 3s are a better option than midrange against literally any defense.
 
Feb 5, 2003
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Question for those who look at points per possession: even if the rate of our opponents rises to 30%, those possessions are 0.9 points each as long as get the board. Isn't that good?
 

Eagleton95.99

All-American
Jul 25, 2001
7,551
6,469
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I'll agree with sentence 1.

Sentence 2 is still an issue in my mind, but I am very happy with what I saw with both Paul AND Cam.

Sentence 3. As of RIGHT NOW we are a bubble team. Now it is silly to do analysis on Jan 4, but our current resume (not our future resume) has a win vs WF, Indiana and Purdue but loses to SH, Temple, OSU and Miami. We are 3-4 vs. teams with a pulse.

Sentence 3. I said right now we are a bubble team based on current results. My confidence is growing that we will get the wins necessary to get comfortable in to the tournament

Sentence 3. Adding minutes to Simpson can come directly from Paul and Caleb. Now saying that I am also have been the most critical of Simpson compared to most posters. He has potential, but he is making way too many mistakes. I am sure If i were in pike's shoes I'd probably give Simpson less minutes then he is getting. Very easy to say what Pike should do from the comfort of my house or seat at the RAC.

Sentence 4. I think i share your feeling. Our defense has been off the charts, super elite. Quite frankly I didn't see that coming. I knew we would be good defensively, but not this!
3-4 vs teams with a pulse? Wha? That’s some serious cherry picking to make a point. 👎🏻