My bad. Didn't we play an NFL QB who beat the tar out of us from New Hampshire?
Do you mean Miami of Ohio?
My bad. Didn't we play an NFL QB who beat the tar out of us from New Hampshire?
I don't know if Ricky Santos of UNH made it to the NFL.
That UNH QB was Ricky Santos. He was undrafted, signed by the Chiefs, and released a month later. He then went to Canada and bounced around as roster flotsam for about 4 seasons.Do you mean Miami of Ohio?
Flacco also started at Pitt and transferred to Delaware so not sure I understand the point in this contextGreat post, E-Cat. You missed one of the more obvious examples in Carson Wentz (North Dakota St.). Regarding Flacco, we never played Delaware IIRC.
I looked it up, and the UNH QB was Ricky Santos. http://www.espn.in/college-football/boxscore?gameId=262520077My bad. I still have nightmares about our loss to UNH and projecting Joe Flacco and Delaware as our opponent makes it feel better somehow. In any case, the FCS QB was the best QB on either sideline that day.
C'mon guys, are you guys joking? Carson Wentz couldn't even get a preferred walk on for a power 5 conference and ended up at NDSU. Tony Romo couldn't get a power 5 scholarship and I think went to Eastern Illinois? I could rattle off another dozen NFL qb's who couldn't even get a preferred walkin like Green did at a power 5 conference. And that's just the NFL. So, No, Green isn't an exception at QB if he plays. Fitz has him on the depth chart ahead of the QB who GCG is locked down on. And that isn't because Fitz is being nice. GCG has gone after my Green comments for years.They are unusual to be sure, but Baker Mayfield isn't a sole exception (ignoring for a moment Otto, who does really count). A few others:
Former Washington Redskin QB Colt Brennan was a walk-on QB from Hawaii who set record upon record in the NCAA. The most impressive one is his mark for consecutive games with 200 or more passing yards. He set that mark at 34, and he played only 38 games for the Warriors. He had a career completion percentage over 70, and he was an All-American once and an All-MWC selection twice. Brennan capped his college days off as a sixth-round pick in the 2008 NFL draft.
Another Hawaii QB, Bryant Moniz was a walk-on and a 3 year starter. In the fourth game of the 2011 season, Moniz tied an NCAA record by throwing seven touchdown passes in the first half in a 56–14 victory over UC Davis. Moniz finished his career with 10,169 passing yards and 75 passing touchdowns in just three seasons, both of which are third in school history, after Brennan and Timmy Chang.
Jonathan Smith who is the new head coach at Oregon State was a walk-on QB there who came in during the middle of his freshman year (with no scholarship) to lead the Beavers. Ended up a 4 year starter and as a junior, he led the Beavers to their greatest season in school history in 2001. The Beavers finished 11–1–a school record for wins, won a share of their first conference title in 36 years, and finished fourth in the country. Smith was the MVP of the Fiesta Bowl.
And then you have to also consider the plethora of great FCS/Division II QBs that went on to star in the League. Like Jimmy Garropolo (Eastern Illinois), Steve McNair (Alcorn State), Rich Gannon (Delaware) and Kurt Warner (Northern Iowa), Tony Romo (Eastern Illinois), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Harvard), Josh McCown (Sam Houston State). When Joe Flacco (Delaware) stepped onto Ryan Field, he was the best QB on either sideline much to our dismay. None of these guys had Division I offers (well, I'm guessing none, since they ended up in FCS) either, and could have opted to walk on instead at a FBS school like Green (who spurned a scholarship offer at FCS N. Dakota State). And all of them would have won the starting job at NU regardless of what year they played here since perhaps Otto Graham. Every year there are multiple FCS QBs taken in the draft. In fact, if 2015 is representative (I'm not cherry picking, it's just the one article on the topic I found), in any given year, there are multiple starters and a half a dozen or so FCS QBs on NFL rosters:
https://herosports.com/collegefootball/yes-mr-qb-you-can-make-the-nfl-from-the-fcs/
All of a sudden, the pool of great QBs who were overlooked by the big schools and not given scholarship offers, but could have starred anywhere, is much bigger than just Baker Mayfield.
I think you have to look past the statistics when you look at individual cases, just as you do when you look at no star and 2 star recruits. If a kid is special and is just being overlooked for some reason, the stars and even the scholie doesn't matter. In this case, if Green was as tall as he is now in HS, he would have gotten plenty of scholarships, at least according to his coach, who also coached Nathan Scheelhaase, who was a unanimous 4 star recruit, 4 year starter for the Iollini, and holds the Iollini record for offensive yards. Rockhurst's coach said that Scheelhaase was not nearly as skilled as Green, just bigger. Interestingly, Green is now the same 6'2" that Scheelhaase was as a HS senior.
You look at TJ Green's body of work as a HS Senior, his awards, his skill set, his heart, not to mention the bloodlines, you look at also the reasons he was overlooked - in term of his size and how he's grown a couple of inches since, and then you also consider that he is the QB that is highest on our depth chart who is healthy and returning (though of course we don't know where Marty would have been had he had not redshirted) and the prospect of him competing for the job and even winning it is not at all far fetched.
I for one am higher on his projected ceiling than I am of Jason Whittaker, just solely based on HS level production. Whittaker may have a higher absolute ceiling, but he's clearly a project. QB is a position where intangibles are as important or even more so than physical attributes, as the Siemian vs. Lynch saga attests.
FWIW, I think the position is up for grabs, and if you forced me to guess who wins I'd pick Marty (love his film - though it's easy to love everyone's highlight films - and his production in HS was impressive), but I think TJ is his main competition and will give him a run. I think Smith is behind, and Whittaker has no chance as a project and true frosh.
They are unusual to be sure, but Baker Mayfield isn't a sole exception (ignoring for a moment Otto, who does really count). A few others:
Former Washington Redskin QB Colt Brennan was a walk-on QB from Hawaii who set record upon record in the NCAA. The most impressive one is his mark for consecutive games with 200 or more passing yards. He set that mark at 34, and he played only 38 games for the Warriors. He had a career completion percentage over 70, and he was an All-American once and an All-MWC selection twice. Brennan capped his college days off as a sixth-round pick in the 2008 NFL draft.
Another Hawaii QB, Bryant Moniz was a walk-on and a 3 year starter. In the fourth game of the 2011 season, Moniz tied an NCAA record by throwing seven touchdown passes in the first half in a 56–14 victory over UC Davis. Moniz finished his career with 10,169 passing yards and 75 passing touchdowns in just three seasons, both of which are third in school history, after Brennan and Timmy Chang.
Jonathan Smith who is the new head coach at Oregon State was a walk-on QB there who came in during the middle of his freshman year (with no scholarship) to lead the Beavers. Ended up a 4 year starter and as a junior, he led the Beavers to their greatest season in school history in 2001. The Beavers finished 11–1–a school record for wins, won a share of their first conference title in 36 years, and finished fourth in the country. Smith was the MVP of the Fiesta Bowl.
And then you have to also consider the plethora of great FCS/Division II QBs that went on to star in the League. Like Jimmy Garropolo (Eastern Illinois), Steve McNair (Alcorn State), Rich Gannon (Delaware) and Kurt Warner (Northern Iowa), Tony Romo (Eastern Illinois), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Harvard), Josh McCown (Sam Houston State). When Joe Flacco (Delaware) stepped onto Ryan Field, he was the best QB on either sideline much to our dismay. None of these guys had Division I offers (well, I'm guessing none, since they ended up in FCS) either, and could have opted to walk on instead at a FBS school like Green (who spurned a scholarship offer at FCS N. Dakota State). And all of them would have won the starting job at NU regardless of what year they played here since perhaps Otto Graham. Every year there are multiple FCS QBs taken in the draft. In fact, if 2015 is representative (I'm not cherry picking, it's just the one article on the topic I found), in any given year, there are multiple starters and a half a dozen or so FCS QBs on NFL rosters:
https://herosports.com/collegefootball/yes-mr-qb-you-can-make-the-nfl-from-the-fcs/
All of a sudden, the pool of great QBs who were overlooked by the big schools and not given scholarship offers, but could have starred anywhere, is much bigger than just Baker Mayfield.
I think you have to look past the statistics when you look at individual cases, just as you do when you look at no star and 2 star recruits. If a kid is special and is just being overlooked for some reason, the stars and even the scholie doesn't matter. In this case, if Green was as tall as he is now in HS, he would have gotten plenty of scholarships, at least according to his coach, who also coached Nathan Scheelhaase, who was a unanimous 4 star recruit, 4 year starter for the Iollini, and holds the Iollini record for offensive yards. Rockhurst's coach said that Scheelhaase was not nearly as skilled as Green, just bigger. Interestingly, Green is now the same 6'2" that Scheelhaase was as a HS senior.
You look at TJ Green's body of work as a HS Senior, his awards, his skill set, his heart, not to mention the bloodlines, you look at also the reasons he was overlooked - in term of his size and how he's grown a couple of inches since, and then you also consider that he is the QB that is highest on our depth chart who is healthy and returning (though of course we don't know where Marty would have been had he had not redshirted) and the prospect of him competing for the job and even winning it is not at all far fetched.
I for one am higher on his projected ceiling than I am of Jason Whittaker, just solely based on HS level production. Whittaker may have a higher absolute ceiling, but he's clearly a project. QB is a position where intangibles are as important or even more so than physical attributes, as the Siemian vs. Lynch saga attests.
FWIW, I think the position is up for grabs, and if you forced me to guess who wins I'd pick Marty (love his film - though it's easy to love everyone's highlight films - and his production in HS was impressive), but I think TJ is his main competition and will give him a run. I think Smith is behind, and Whittaker has no chance as a project and true frosh.
I don't know what was up with Delaware but it was a monster power. Believe me, I love Youngstown State and we had to play Delaware for several Championships. I think we had Stout and Jaworski (2 more Div 2 guys who went to the NFL and played a lot)I don’t know anything about any of the Division 2 quarterbacks you’ve listed other than Joe Flacco, but I can tell you that Flacco had Division 1, power 5 offers. In fact, he transferred to Delaware from Pitt after someone else beat him out as a starter. I forget all the names but when Delaware was a Division 2 power it historically started transfers from Power 5 programs who wanted to play at a successful program but didn’t want to sit out for a year as they would have if they had transferred to a Division 1 program.
We should just stop recruiting and go all in on walk-on's, I mean they flourish every once in awhile so why not.C'mon guys, are you guys joking? Carson Wentz couldn't even get a preferred walk on for a power 5 conference and ended up at NDSU. Tony Romo couldn't get a power 5 scholarship and I think went to Eastern Illinois? I could rattle off another dozen NFL qb's who couldn't even get a preferred walkin like Green did at a power 5 conference. And that's just the NFL. So, No, Green isn't an exception at QB if he plays. Fitz has him on the depth chart ahead of the QB who GCG is locked down on. And that isn't because Fitz is being nice. GCG has gone after my Green comments for years.
That UNH QB was Ricky Santos. He was undrafted, signed by the Chiefs, and released a month later. He then went to Canada and bounced around as roster flotsam for about 4 seasons.
He then retired from football and became a backup singer for Canadian tribute rock bands that covered April Wine, Triumph, Kim Mitchell, Honeymoon Suite, and the Northern Pikes. He also had a cooking show on the local access channel in Winnipeg and married a female lumberjack.
OK. That last paragraph is a bunch of bald-faced lies but there is nothing better to talk about.
Thanks, Ecat, that was really enlightening. I had completely left out those who went to the "lesser" schools, focusing on NU only. Wentz is the current prime example of someone from a "lesser" school who made it. If you have read some of my prior comments, the idea that the 4 and 5 stars are the best of everyone out there, it just isn't so. There is hundreds of thousands of players in high schools who play each year and only a handful get the coveted 5 star rating. Most warrant them but there are always those who are overlooked as noted in your litany of recognized QB's. And not having the measurable s mentioned for TJ is real as well. So let's watch the competition and see if CT recovers quickly and returns. And THEN make our usual snap judgements and discussions until the opening kickoffThey are unusual to be sure, but Baker Mayfield isn't a sole exception (ignoring for a moment Otto, who does really count). A few others:
Former Washington Redskin QB Colt Brennan was a walk-on QB from Hawaii who set record upon record in the NCAA. The most impressive one is his mark for consecutive games with 200 or more passing yards. He set that mark at 34, and he played only 38 games for the Warriors. He had a career completion percentage over 70, and he was an All-American once and an All-MWC selection twice. Brennan capped his college days off as a sixth-round pick in the 2008 NFL draft.
Another Hawaii QB, Bryant Moniz was a walk-on and a 3 year starter. In the fourth game of the 2011 season, Moniz tied an NCAA record by throwing seven touchdown passes in the first half in a 56–14 victory over UC Davis. Moniz finished his career with 10,169 passing yards and 75 passing touchdowns in just three seasons, both of which are third in school history, after Brennan and Timmy Chang.
Jonathan Smith who is the new head coach at Oregon State was a walk-on QB there who came in during the middle of his freshman year (with no scholarship) to lead the Beavers. Ended up a 4 year starter and as a junior, he led the Beavers to their greatest season in school history in 2001. The Beavers finished 11–1–a school record for wins, won a share of their first conference title in 36 years, and finished fourth in the country. Smith was the MVP of the Fiesta Bowl.
And then you have to also consider the plethora of great FCS/Division II QBs that went on to star in the League. Like Jimmy Garropolo (Eastern Illinois), Steve McNair (Alcorn State), Rich Gannon (Delaware) and Kurt Warner (Northern Iowa), Tony Romo (Eastern Illinois), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Harvard), Josh McCown (Sam Houston State). When Joe Flacco (Delaware) stepped onto Ryan Field, he was the best QB on either sideline much to our dismay. None of these guys had Division I offers (well, I'm guessing none, since they ended up in FCS) either, and could have opted to walk on instead at a FBS school like Green (who spurned a scholarship offer at FCS N. Dakota State). And all of them would have won the starting job at NU regardless of what year they played here since perhaps Otto Graham. Every year there are multiple FCS QBs taken in the draft. In fact, if 2015 is representative (I'm not cherry picking, it's just the one article on the topic I found), in any given year, there are multiple starters and a half a dozen or so FCS QBs on NFL rosters:
https://herosports.com/collegefootball/yes-mr-qb-you-can-make-the-nfl-from-the-fcs/
All of a sudden, the pool of great QBs who were overlooked by the big schools and not given scholarship offers, but could have starred anywhere, is much bigger than just Baker Mayfield.
I think you have to look past the statistics when you look at individual cases, just as you do when you look at no star and 2 star recruits. If a kid is special and is just being overlooked for some reason, the stars and even the scholie doesn't matter. In this case, if Green was as tall as he is now in HS, he would have gotten plenty of scholarships, at least according to his coach, who also coached Nathan Scheelhaase, who was a unanimous 4 star recruit, 4 year starter for the Iollini, and holds the Iollini record for offensive yards. Rockhurst's coach said that Scheelhaase was not nearly as skilled as Green, just bigger. Interestingly, Green is now the same 6'2" that Scheelhaase was as a HS senior.
You look at TJ Green's body of work as a HS Senior, his awards, his skill set, his heart, not to mention the bloodlines, you look at also the reasons he was overlooked - in term of his size and how he's grown a couple of inches since, and then you also consider that he is the QB that is highest on our depth chart who is healthy and returning (though of course we don't know where Marty would have been had he had not redshirted) and the prospect of him competing for the job and even winning it is not at all far fetched.
I for one am higher on his projected ceiling than I am of Jason Whittaker, just solely based on HS level production. Whittaker may have a higher absolute ceiling, but he's clearly a project. QB is a position where intangibles are as important or even more so than physical attributes, as the Siemian vs. Lynch saga attests.
FWIW, I think the position is up for grabs, and if you forced me to guess who wins I'd pick Marty (love his film - though it's easy to love everyone's highlight films - and his production in HS was impressive), but I think TJ is his main competition and will give him a run. I think Smith is behind, and Whittaker has no chance as a project and true frosh.
Pat Devlin is another quarterback who played at Delaware who went on to play in the pros. However, just like Flacco he was not snubbed by Division 1 programs. He played two years at Penn State and then transferred to Delaware because he was not going to be a starter.I don’t know anything about any of the Division 2 quarterbacks you’ve listed other than Joe Flacco, but I can tell you that Flacco had Division 1, power 5 offers. In fact, he transferred to Delaware from Pitt after someone else beat him out as a starter. I forget all the names but when Delaware was a Division 2 power it historically started transfers from Power 5 programs who wanted to play at a successful program but didn’t want to sit out for a year as they would have if they had transferred to a Division 1 program.
That UNH QB was Ricky Santos. He was undrafted, signed by the Chiefs, and released a month later. He then went to Canada and bounced around as roster flotsam for about 4 seasons.
He then retired from football and became a backup singer for Canadian tribute rock bands that covered April Wine, Triumph, Kim Mitchell, Honeymoon Suite, and the Northern Pikes. He also had a cooking show on the local access channel in Winnipeg and married a female lumberjack.
OK. That last paragraph is a bunch of bald-faced lies but there is nothing better to talk about.
How the Sam Hill have we gone from talking about graduate transfers/walk on’s to listing all successful non power 5 QB’s? We do realize that population of QB’s is About 1000 every single year?
Look, I understand if you feel Green is not the guy. But I do not recall reasons mentioned for that position. Just your terse response. Now that Alviti is gone, we really do not know who is behind CT. So if you have some specifics on why you think TJ will be beat out, fine.. Willing to listenI did.
They are unusual to be sure, but Baker Mayfield isn't a sole exception (ignoring for a moment Otto, who does really count). A few others:
Former Washington Redskin QB Colt Brennan was a walk-on QB from Hawaii who set record upon record in the NCAA. The most impressive one is his mark for consecutive games with 200 or more passing yards. He set that mark at 34, and he played only 38 games for the Warriors. He had a career completion percentage over 70, and he was an All-American once and an All-MWC selection twice. Brennan capped his college days off as a sixth-round pick in the 2008 NFL draft.
Ahhh...the 1980s power ballad. Nothing else like it on the planet. I always thought "New Girl Now" was underrated. Kinda like the Smithereens "Girl Like You."Bummer. That was a pretty aspirational post-football bio and I so wanted it to be true. I would have paid good $ to see a killer cover of Honeymoon Suite's "What Does It Take?"
1st string: Thorson
2nd string: Alviti
3rd string: Green
What is it that you don't understand?
Ahhh...the 1980s power ballad. Nothing else like it on the planet. I always thought "New Girl Now" was underrated. Kinda like the Smithereens "Girl Like You."
Santos is actually quarterback coach at Columbia. I did not realize how good he was at UNH--playoffs all 4 years, most passing records, Hula Bowl.
Lou - maybe you can ring up Coach Santos for an interview? We need something to fill the space here. Might be fun to talk to him about that dark day in Evanston, his journey through Canadian football, and have him opine on Ivy football vs. NU.
How about it Lou? If you don't want to, I would be willing to. I love talking with random people.
I suggest that we start giving Fitz and Green credit and stop this GCG insanity that Green isn't competing when in fact Fitz has him higher up the depth chart than GCG's favorite pick. Every time Teddy mentions something, GCG has a Barbie tantrum. Maybe Fitz knows a thing or two about Green.We should just stop recruiting and go all in on walk-on's, I mean they flourish every once in awhile so why not.
Look, I understand if you feel Green is not the guy. But I do not recall reasons mentioned for that position. Just your terse response. Now that Alviti is gone, we really do not know who is behind CT. So if you have some specifics on why you think TJ will be beat out, fine.. Willing to listen
I suggest that we start giving Fitz and Green credit and stop this GCG insanity that Green isn't competing when in fact Fitz has him higher up the depth chart than GCG's favorite pick. Every time Teddy mentions something, GCG has a Barbie tantrum. Maybe Fitz knows a thing or two about Green.
Why doesn't he give him a scholarship then?I suggest that we start giving Fitz and Green credit and stop this GCG insanity that Green isn't competing when in fact Fitz has him higher up the depth chart than GCG's favorite pick. Every time Teddy mentions something, GCG has a Barbie tantrum. Maybe Fitz knows a thing or two about Green.
Because his Dad can afford the tuition?Why doesn't he give him a scholarship then?
A couple things going on here:
1) All I've got to go on are the available tape from each player (at this point, senior highlights) and what I've heard about practice performance from people whose opinion I trust. Here's the most recent tape I could find for each of Green, Smith, and Marty:
Green makes some nice throws, but I'm not convinced he has the arm to consistently fit the ball into the tight windows as should be expected of a starter at the P5 level; I've also heard that 6-2 would be an extremely, um, optimistic height from those who have physically stood next to him. I know his dad was a late-bloomer and all so he could very well have grown some since I heard that, but I haven't seen anything noticeable from him on the sideline or in limited game action. Mostly his high school tape looks like a guy about whom you should be extremely excited as a walk-on (and I was and still am), but very skeptical about as a potential multi-year starter.
Smith also makes some decent throws, but I'm not entirely convinced on his arm strength either. He has a tendency to "cup" the ball, which saps arm strength, though he does show some nice touch. He also runs around pretty well on tape, but not sure he's fast/athletic enough to really threaten a P5 defense with his legs.
Marty is a big, raw kid on that tape with a lot of room for development. That said, he does have a very "projectable" frame and release. He's a long way from a finished product, but has a high ceiling.
2) Assuming Thorson isn't healthy enough to go (or if, say, a 75% Thorson is still not better than a 100% Marty), the coaches will have to make a decision that weighs both short- and long-term considerations.
Putting aside Alviti's health issues for a moment, the situation is in some ways similar to the Thorson/Alviti/Oliver decision the coaches had to make going into the 2015 season: do you go with the veteran who's more of a known commodity (Oliver), the young guy with the highest ceiling (Thorson), or the guy who's somewhere in between (Alviti)? The coaches chose Thorson because they believed him to be the best choice on balance, giving the team a good chance to win games now while developing to be even better in the future with a considerably high ceiling.
The 2018 decision is a little different in that Green isn't nearly as experienced as Oliver and Smith is much less experienced than Alviti, but Marty is very similar to Thorson in that they were both easily the highest-ceiling guys with the least experience.
So, if you want to wrap it all up: if Thorson isn't ready/able to go for the 2018 opener, my guess is Marty is the starter given what I have seen on tape/heard from practices and based on the coaching staff's past decision to pick the lesser-experienced, higher-ceiling guy in a similar situation.
Look, I'm all for Green surprising me to become the starter in 2018 and leading the team on our upward trajectory because it will mean he's taken tremendous strides to become a solid P5/B1G-level QB... but feel like Marty probably gives us a better chance long-term.
He doesn't have to yet. Plus Green has not made any meaningful appearances yet. If he does, the scholarship would likely be awarded after the season.Why doesn't he give him a scholarship then?
THanks. To what extent can a guy's arm get stronger or improve enough to get what you need? It would seem TJ has gotten taller regardless of whether he measures up to 6'2" and with the weight room, could he improve enough to overcome your reservations?
In any event, it would seem that the injury to CT might have a silver lining in that guys who would not normally get reps and time with first team will. The downside is that Purdue is the first game of the year
The spring reps will be important, both for 2018 and for further into the future... but let's not get too worried about Purdue. It's important in that it is a conference game, but they lose essentially their entire defensive front plus both corners. If anything, it should be a favorable matchup for a young QB to with a veteran (though not overwhelming) OL and skill guys.
The spring reps will be important, both for 2018 and for further into the future... but let's not get too worried about Purdue. It's important in that it is a conference game, but they lose essentially their entire defensive front plus both corners. If anything, it should be a favorable matchup for a young QB to with a veteran (though not overwhelming) OL and skill guys.
Purdue's front 7 was the strength of the team last season, especially against the run. They throttled JJ that game, but our defense was even better.
We should just stop recruiting and go all in on walk-on's, I mean they flourish every once in awhile so why not.
My point is I don’t think there are many if any posters in this board who can do anything more than speculate about who ascends to starter without Clayton in the mix. You said IYO, Marty is the leader with Green as his main competition. You said Smith is behind. This apears to be based on 2017 depth chart listing Green as third. I am saying, I don’t think many of us have seen anything but HS tape on these 3. I don’t think you flew across the pond to watch a few practices, I live 15 miles away and I saw nothing other than open practice, so to characterize Green as the main competition to Marty with Smith “behind” seems like a huge leap to me. Green might very well win the job, but who knows right now.
FWIW, I have heard from people that have seen them throw that Smith is definitely in the mix. No idea if this is accurate or not, but Smith has been in the system as long as anyone. Not trying to be argumentative, but we need more info besides HS tape to elevate or demote anyone on the depth. Fact is it is up in the air. If Smith is behind, I don’t believe it is by much or that it is only a two horse battle.
Incremental gains can be made in arm strength, but a guy isn't about to go from average arm strength to excellent. "Arm talent" is much more "you've got it if you have it."
The spring reps will be important, both for 2018 and for further into the future... but let's not get too worried about Purdue. It's important in that it is a conference game, but they lose essentially their entire defensive front plus both corners. If anything, it should be a favorable matchup for a young QB to with a veteran (though not overwhelming) OL and skill guys.
Who can forget that Terry Bradshaw went to Louisiana Tech and that George Blanda went to El Paso City College or that Y.A. Tittle went to Devry?
A couple things going on here:
1) All I've got to go on are the available tape from each player (at this point, senior highlights) and what I've heard about practice performance from people whose opinion I trust. Here's the most recent tape I could find for each of Green, Smith, and Marty:
Green makes some nice throws, but I'm not convinced he has the arm to consistently fit the ball into the tight windows as should be expected of a starter at the P5 level; I've also heard that 6-2 would be an extremely, um, optimistic height from those who have physically stood next to him. I know his dad was a late-bloomer and all so he could very well have grown some since I heard that, but I haven't seen anything noticeable from him on the sideline or in limited game action. Mostly his high school tape looks like a guy about whom you should be extremely excited as a walk-on (and I was and still am), but very skeptical about as a potential multi-year starter.
Smith also makes some decent throws, but I'm not entirely convinced on his arm strength either. He has a tendency to "cup" the ball, which saps arm strength, though he does show some nice touch. He also runs around pretty well on tape, but not sure he's fast/athletic enough to really threaten a P5 defense with his legs.
Marty is a big, raw kid on that tape with a lot of room for development. That said, he does have a very "projectable" frame and release. He's a long way from a finished product, but has a high ceiling.
2) Assuming Thorson isn't healthy enough to go (or if, say, a 75% Thorson is still not better than a 100% Marty), the coaches will have to make a decision that weighs both short- and long-term considerations.
Putting aside Alviti's health issues for a moment, the situation is in some ways similar to the Thorson/Alviti/Oliver decision the coaches had to make going into the 2015 season: do you go with the veteran who's more of a known commodity (Oliver), the young guy with the highest ceiling (Thorson), or the guy who's somewhere in between (Alviti)? The coaches chose Thorson because they believed him to be the best choice on balance, giving the team a good chance to win games now while developing to be even better in the future with a considerably high ceiling.
The 2018 decision is a little different in that Green isn't nearly as experienced as Oliver and Smith is much less experienced than Alviti, but Marty is very similar to Thorson in that they were both easily the highest-ceiling guys with the least experience.
So, if you want to wrap it all up: if Thorson isn't ready/able to go for the 2018 opener, my guess is Marty is the starter given what I have seen on tape/heard from practices and based on the coaching staff's past decision to pick the lesser-experienced, higher-ceiling guy in a similar situation.
Look, I'm all for Green surprising me to become the starter in 2018 and leading the team on our upward trajectory because it will mean he's taken tremendous strides to become a solid P5/B1G-level QB... but feel like Marty probably gives us a better chance long-term.
Bait... cannot... resist...
A certain WR at NU who had no arm strength started over a QB who had enough to make it to the NFL recently.
Then again, hopefully the coaches learned their lesson from that travesty.
Sorry. I couldn't help it.
In any case, maybe he hasn't the greatest arm, but that didn't stop his coach from saying that he throws much better than Scheelhaase did.