Only time will tell I suppose, but when looking at daily case rate data for China, Korea, and now even Italy, there seems to be a consistent peak 4-5 weeks after initial spread.
Korea has obviously had better success than most while Italy has been worse off, but even Italy has finally started seeing declining new case rates the last 2-3 days.
I don’t know what this means for the U.S., and the still rampant spread in New York is alarming, but I’ll also say that I’ve seen absolutely nothing in the data we have to suggest that we are still another month to six weeks away from a peak. I’m betting on a peak no later than Apr 12th
One thing I will say... when things eventually do start getting better, we cannot just go back to our prior ways and that is my fear. People are going to have a “it’s finally over” attitude when that will be far from the case. Limited group interaction, distancing, and sanitizing will be crucial for months to come