ETA: Updated Chart to make it easier to see changes in shaded area.
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Or at least would be the most informative if we knew how comprehensive the data is. We still aren't testing a ton, but we have been ramping up tests without (yet) showing a big increase. We'll see if that's because we are flattening the curve or if it's caused by something like not testing a lot of obviously symptomatic people or because we have a lot of tests outstanding that we haven't gotten the results from that are going to push those numbers in the shaded area up considerably.
April 1: Looks like they added at least one case as far back as March 8th and another on the 11th, but there aren't significant additions until March 19th and 20th. Still seems to be encouraging. Not huge spikes and the additions, while significant, aren't massive. They seem to be consistently too, so the trend may be good even if the data overall is understated.
April 2: Looks like maybe they don't add a case before March 16th, and no significant adds until March 20th, and then pretty small additions with the exception of March 23rd. Still looking flat, so still encouraging.
April 3: Looks like maybe they don't add a case or to on March 15th, and a few on the 16th through the 22nd, and then a good sized jump on the 23rd and each day thereafter. Looks likely that the 23rd is going to exceed the 20th as a new peak in the next few days. And had a big jump today in confirmed cases, so the idea that the curve had already hit a plateau seems like it was maybe overly optimistic unless that jump was just do to an increased capacity to process tests showing up in the data, which is certainly possible.
April 7: Doesn't look like they've added anything significant prior to March 23rd although there are some prior additions.
THrough April 8th: Added cases back to at least March 16th, with pretty decent sized numbers added each day fro March 18th onward.
Looking at how the data is changing by day, you could see the 23rd catching up to the 20th as the peak as far back as April 1st, so it looks like the 27th will have a good chance of surpassing the peak of the 23rd, and we don't know that dates after that won't catch and/or pass the 27th.
Through April 10th: Still adding cases back to at least March 20th, with pretty big numbers added starting March 23rd onward.
Through April 11th: Still adding back to at least March 20th. Not many cases added to March 23rd over two days. Looks likely that March 27th, 30th, and/or 31st will pass the 23rd as the peak. Looking back to the April 1st graph, March 23rd had between 40 and 50 cases, and we've added close to another 100 to that date in the almost two weeks since. We are going back at least three weeks to add cases pretty consistently.
Through April 12th: Very little updating outside of the shaded area. I am guessing this has more to do with number of tests processed and impacts from Easter weekend rather than it being evidence that our test processing has caught up to tests administered.
Through April 13th: Looks like still adding back to at least March 23rd, and that March 27th will surpass the 23rd as a peak, and that the number of cases added picks up a good bit at April 1st. So basically a pretty solid two week lag with small numbers added up to three weeks back.
Through April 15th: Looks like they are still adding some cases back to March 23rd, but that the cases added really picks up around March 30th. HOpefully this is a sign that the backlog of test results is being eliminated and we really are seeing a flat curve. Still not sure how many symptomatic people are just told not to get tested. I've talked to people that work drive through testing sites where they say they get limited traffic, but also hear of people being told not to get tested but to just self isolate.
Through April 20th: Missed enough days that there's not much you can tell from updating, but pretty clear there are several days in the shaded area that will compete for a new peak.
Through April 29th: Not much to tell since I have not been updating consistently as I've been watching the hospitalization, ICU, and ventilator graph, but looks like we are slowly but steadily moving up. Based on the hospitalizations, it looks like we might be basically at our peak regardless of how many new positive cases we are getting, or it could be that a lot of these positive cases will translate into elevated hospitalizations over the next week or so.
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Neshoba social distancer here . You haven't seen me unless you ride the country roads and I'm on the lawnmower or walking dogs in the pastures and woods.
