The economy

fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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Ok. This is easy. Back in 2020, there was a massive supply chain crunch and global pandemic that kicked off a wave of inflation starting in 2020 and running up to 2022. Prices rose steadily from the inflationary pressure. The inflation rate fell steadily after 2022 down to 2.4% in 2024 and prices remained steady after that. Trump gained office with the promise of reducing grocery prices (somehow.....), America first/world peace, and justice for the Epstein victims, among other things.

Trump was elected, imposed tariffs that drove up prices. started wars that drove up prices, and the inflation rate has also risen to 4.2% along with a surge in price increases. Prices are higher now than they were in 2024 or 2022. Hope that helps.

Is this trending the right way?

  • May 2026: 4.20%
  • April 2026: 3.80%
  • March 2026: 3.30%
  • February 2026: 2.40%
  • January 2026: 2.40%
It’s been discussed ad nauseum.

IMO, democrats got punished for not taking inflation seriously. They tried to pass BBB when inflation was over 6%. They were stymied only by Manchin.

Additionally, a large part of the reason inflation trended lower before the election was due to releasing oil from the SPR to keep prices gas low, and Americans saw right through it. Joe was responsible for those gas pump stickers, we didn’t forget.

Democrats green policies and social programs are highly inflationary.

MAGA’s run the same risk of being tone deaf on inflation, but oil is back to $73 as we speak. Inflation is going to tank if oil stays sub $75

Trump read the room correctly, there was no public appetite to continue the war.
 

Palmerhawk

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Trump found a way to lower oil prices; lift sanctions on both Iran and Russia so their oil is back on the open market.

By helping our adversaries desperate for cash Trump has found a way to reduce prices.

Trump is critical for a Russia and Iran comeback.

Totally FUBAR!
 

fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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Oil down to an equilibrium price, imo, around $70

Micron just absolutely crushed earnings. They also state that demand will be strong through 2028.

IF, big IF, oils stays below $75 you will see the current view of expected Intrest rates increase reverse quickly.


This is shaping up nicely for the 2nd half of the year. I expect the economy to be humming running into midterms.

Voters wallets will be nice and fat around midterms.
 
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hawkeyetraveler

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He is probably right, but probably is will be like the timing of his new vehicle launches….a few years behind schedule.

I suspect the genesis of it won’t be falling oil prices. It will be sometime a few years from now when AI displaces enough workers that demand falls.
 
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fatpiggy

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He is probably right, but probably is will be like the timing of his new vehicle launches….a few years behind schedule.

I suspect the genesis of it won’t be falling oil prices. It will be sometime a few years from now when AI displaces enough workers that demand falls.
agreed 100%.
 

Palmerhawk

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All trump had to do was spend 200 billion on a losing war, assure Iran of a half a trillion in cash and lift all sanction on Iranian and Russian oil and he has gotten oil down to only 15 dollars a barrel more than in Feb!

What a foreign policy genius this guy isn't.
 

fsu1jreed

Heisman
Apr 1, 2002
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All trump had to do was spend 200 billion on a losing war, assure Iran of a half a trillion in cash and lift all sanction on Iranian and Russian oil and he has gotten oil down to only 15 dollars a barrel more than in Feb!

What a foreign policy genius this guy isn't.

Art of the deal ...and these morons think he's some genius playing 5d Chess
 

TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
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Interesting analysis.



Do you want to see a perfect example of propaganda media?

Here’s the headline from CNBC:

“Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation rate falls to lowest in 50 years, outside of Covid era”

Sounds really bleak, doesn’t it?

Sounds like the Trump economy is doing really bad, right?

Here’s more propaganda.

“•June’s drop in the unemployment rate was because of an exodus of workers from the labor force.
•The labor force participation rate, which measures the working-age population of those either employed or looking for a job, fell to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
•Excluding the Covid-era jobs market, it was the lowest participation rate since June 1976.
•The labor force plummeted by 720,000 in June.”

There was an “exodus” of workers from the labor force.
The propaganda media wants you to believe that there’s no jobs out there and workers are “giving up” looking.

A huge drop in June.

I wonder why?

When you read down near the end of the story, you see some clues that this is really only half the story.

“What really affects me is not so much the unemployment rate,” said Dan North, senior economist for North America at Allianz. “What’s an important development is the participation rate, and this is a big leg down in one month, and over the past year it’s a pretty big leg down.”

Now, what could possibly be driving down the “participation rate” over the last month and year?

They hinted at the answer:

“The drop in participation is sometimes attributed to a shrinking immigrant population and retiring baby boomers and Gen Xers.
However, in June the biggest plunge came from what is defined as “prime age” workers, or those between the ages of 25 and 54.”

A “shrinking immigrant population?”

You don’t say?

Didn’t we just learn that 10,000 illegal immigrants were arrested for deportation, over the last five days alone?

Hasn’t there been a record number of deportations of illegal immigrants over the last year?

And hasn’t there also been a record number of illegal immigrants self-deporting over the last year?

Does anybody think that’s not the main reason, why the “participation rate” has dropped so drastically?

Here’s another clue:

“To be sure, some economists said the June numbers seem out of sort. Specifically, they cited the large decline in leisure and hospitality workers as a sign that the data could be noisy.”

There was a “large decline” in leisure and hospitality?

Why?

(Brave search engine)
——————-
“Undocumented immigrants constitute a significant portion of the U.S. hospitality workforce, estimated at approximately 7.1% to 9% of the sector's total labor force. Data from the American Immigration Council indicates that this group comprises over 1 million workers within the industry, making hospitality the third-largest employer of undocumented labor after construction and agriculture.”
———————

And do you think the recent ICE raids on businesses in Florida and Alabama, might be encouraging more illegal immigrants to quit looking for jobs in America?

Here’s the proof that it’s illegals no longer “participating.”

“And while the establishment survey, which counts jobs filled, showed growth for the month of 57,000, the survey of households, which counts the actual level of those working, tumbled by 507,000.”

cnbc.com/2026/07/02/job…

So jobs filled is increasing, not decreasing.

It’s just the number of people looking for jobs, that’s massively decreasing, while at the same time, a massive amount of illegals are being deported.

That’s not a coincidence.

More jobs for Americans.

Making America Great Again!
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
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PPI coming in lower this morning. And revisions to previous numbers were also lower.

Great inflation trajectory on CPI yesterday and PPI today.

Oil is the key going forward. If oil can stay in the $75 area then inflation will keep coming down. If oil goes up to $85 or higher then inflation will reverse and start going higher.


The other thing im watching is the 10y treasury. It's pushing 4.6% and that is trending higher which is a concern. The higher it goes, the more it cost to finance the countries debt. It's not an issue right now, but it does have potential to cause a problem.
 

fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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Let’s hope he is right.

New York Fed President Williams says inflation has peaked
 

hawkeyetraveler

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Aug 10, 2010
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New York Fed President Williams says inflation has peaked
I’m not sure how anyone can confidently say this one way or the other. It is so dependent on what happens in the Iran situation. Now perhaps they can forecast just how much that impacts inflation, but my bet is they have directional data at best, more likely it is informed speculation.
 

jimneffer

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Jan 27, 2026
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I’m not sure how anyone can confidently say this one way or the other. It is so dependent on what happens in the Iran situation. Now perhaps they can forecast just how much that impacts inflation, but my bet is they have directional data at best, more likely it is informed speculation.
what do you mean?

with the clear, consistent, well thought out plan for dealing with the current iraq "situation", why wouldn't policy analysts have a firm grasp on the economic impacts?
 
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Dadar

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Dec 21, 2003
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High interest rates attracts buyers of US debt into the highest yielding currencies. This administration is leaving a massive mortgage over our nation's future. Much of it leveraged against social security.

The U.S. Treasury is issuing a massive surge of new debt to fund an annual federal budget deficit approaching $2 trillion, pushing gross federal debt past $39 trillion
 
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TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
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Well then.



HUGE: CNBC JUST REPORTED ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT JOBS NUMBERS FOR THE TRUMP ECONOMY!

You're looking at numbers we haven't seen since the late 1960s.

Initial jobless claims hit 187,000 - well below the expected 212,000. The CNBC anchor was stunned. That's the fewest weekly applications since September 1969. We had to go back more than 50 years to find comparable numbers.

Continuing claims fell to 1.796 million. Layoffs remain historically low. The labor market is absolutely refusing to crack despite rising oil prices and global uncertainty.

This is what Trump's economic policy looks like in real time: employers hanging onto workers, layoffs at historic lows, and a job market that's just flat - out winning.

Democrats said this economy was in trouble. The numbers say otherwise.
 

baltimorened

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May 29, 2001
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Well then.



HUGE: CNBC JUST REPORTED ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT JOBS NUMBERS FOR THE TRUMP ECONOMY!

You're looking at numbers we haven't seen since the late 1960s.

Initial jobless claims hit 187,000 - well below the expected 212,000. The CNBC anchor was stunned. That's the fewest weekly applications since September 1969. We had to go back more than 50 years to find comparable numbers.

Continuing claims fell to 1.796 million. Layoffs remain historically low. The labor market is absolutely refusing to crack despite rising oil prices and global uncertainty.

This is what Trump's economic policy looks like in real time: employers hanging onto workers, layoffs at historic lows, and a job market that's just flat - out winning.

Democrats said this economy was in trouble. The numbers say otherwise.

TG, with all due respect, you're picking just one variable and using that as an indicator of a good economy...not so fast, my friend. There was just another variable posted the other day where we had more people out of work now than during the depression ( the jobless claims and people out of work seem inconsistent), but mortgage rates are high, inflation has picked up again, home sales are "in the toilet", rents are just crazy, gas prices are high, and the problems go on.

Trump needs to focus. He's still all over the map on his "priorities" the war, tariffs, nuclear power to Saudi, SAVE act, and that list goes on too. I realize trump can keep more than one ball in the air at a time, but you need to close out some of those priorities before starting others.
 
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fatpiggy

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Aug 18, 2002
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TG, with all due respect, you're picking just one variable and using that as an indicator of a good economy...not so fast, my friend. There was just another variable posted the other day where we had more people out of work now than during the depression ( the jobless claims and people out of work seem inconsistent), but mortgage rates are high, inflation has picked up again, home sales are "in the toilet", rents are just crazy, gas prices are high, and the problems go on.

Trump needs to focus. He's still all over the map on his "priorities" the war, tariffs, nuclear power to Saudi, SAVE act, and that list goes on too. I realize trump can keep more than one ball in the air at a time, but you need to close out some of those priorities before starting others.
I’ll disagree. The economy is doing well, with the one exception of oil and gas. However, oil is a huge factor, so this latest push of oil back up to $95ish is not a good thing.


It’s till not too late, economy is fine, but oil needs to stay lower to harvest the fruits of the rest of the economy.

You keep harping on housing, but housing inflation is flat year over year.

The jobs are just fine, still plenty of job openings listed out there.
 

Palmerhawk

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I’ll disagree. The economy is doing well, with the one exception of oil and gas. However, oil is a huge factor, so this latest push of oil back up to $95ish is not a good thing.


It’s till not too late, economy is fine, but oil needs to stay lower to harvest the fruits of the rest of the economy.

You keep harping on housing, but housing inflation is flat year over year.

The jobs are just fine, still plenty of job openings listed out there.
The AI investment boom certainly has helped keep the economy afloat.
What is the projected rate of growth for 2026?
Not great,bob.
Imagine an economy without the tariff shock and
the Iran war shock.
We would probably be in a 1990s dot.com boom right now
Huge opportunity lost.
The 2 trillion annual deficit spending with no covid- type crisis has propped up the economy also.
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
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The AI investment boom certainly has helped keep the economy afloat.
What is the projected rate of growth for 2026?
Not great,bob.
Imagine an economy without the tariff shock and
the Iran war shock.
We would probably be in a 1990s dot.com boom right now
Huge opportunity lost.
The 2 trillion annual deficit spending with no covid- type crisis has propped up the economy also.

Explain what you mean by tariff shock? There has been no tariff shock.

Iran war shock? The market never dropped more than 3% I don’t think the VIX traded over 30. There was no real shock imo.

AI investment just started in the last year. That’s when the capex spending from these companies exploded, it’s all in the financial reports for everyone to see.

Democrats will undoubtedly slow AI investment. Just look at Kathy Hochul and New York.

So there is a huge amount of spending because everyone knows if there is no appetite for DOGE, and there was none from either party, we must grow our way out of our debt. AI is our chance, our vehicle to growth.

The AI’s are investing record amounts and you are going to tell us to be scared? I’m not. I’m investing all in along side them. I don’t think they will miss, no mattter which party is in charge because if we miss we die as a country underneath thee weight of our debt.


By almost all means, except oil, the economy is doing well. Oil is the biggest factor in the economy right now. It will take sustained $90 oil for 3-6 months to hurt the economy. Right now I don’t think the market is pricing in that scenario, but it could certainly happen. I’m taking the other side of the bet though because I love America.
 
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Palmerhawk

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Explain what you mean by tariff shock? There has been no tariff shock.

Iran war shock? The market never dropped more than 3% I don’t think the VIX traded over 30. There was no real shock imo.

AI investment just started in the last year. That’s when the capex spending from these companies exploded, it’s all in the financial reports for everyone to see.

Democrats will undoubtedly slow AI investment. Just look at Kathy Hochul and New York.

So there is a huge amount of spending because everyone knows if there is no appetite for DOGE, and there was none from either party, we must grow our way out of our debt. AI is our chance, our vehicle to growth.

The AI’s are investing record amounts and you are going to tell us to be scared? I’m not. I’m investing all in along side them. I don’t think they will miss, no mattter which party is in charge because if we miss we die as a country underneath thee weight of our debt.


By almost all means, except oil, the economy is doing well. Oil is the biggest factor in the economy right now. It will take sustained $90 oil for 3-6 months to hurt the economy. Right now I don’t think the market is pricing in that scenario, but it could certainly happen. I’m taking the other side of the bet though because I love America.
Tariff shock was a spike in inflation.
Same with Iran war.
 
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dpic73

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Those with money have their mood driven by the stock market.

The poors go by gas prices.
Im not personally distressed by gas prices but it's the first time I've seen it over $4.00 in the areas of Atlanta I travel. Not blind to the fact that this does present a real hardship for many though.