The economy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
25,424
24,175
113
Ok. This is easy. Back in 2020, there was a massive supply chain crunch and global pandemic that kicked off a wave of inflation starting in 2020 and running up to 2022. Prices rose steadily from the inflationary pressure. The inflation rate fell steadily after 2022 down to 2.4% in 2024 and prices remained steady after that. Trump gained office with the promise of reducing grocery prices (somehow.....), America first/world peace, and justice for the Epstein victims, among other things.

Trump was elected, imposed tariffs that drove up prices. started wars that drove up prices, and the inflation rate has also risen to 4.2% along with a surge in price increases. Prices are higher now than they were in 2024 or 2022. Hope that helps.

Is this trending the right way?

  • May 2026: 4.20%
  • April 2026: 3.80%
  • March 2026: 3.30%
  • February 2026: 2.40%
  • January 2026: 2.40%
It’s been discussed ad nauseum.

IMO, democrats got punished for not taking inflation seriously. They tried to pass BBB when inflation was over 6%. They were stymied only by Manchin.

Additionally, a large part of the reason inflation trended lower before the election was due to releasing oil from the SPR to keep prices gas low, and Americans saw right through it. Joe was responsible for those gas pump stickers, we didn’t forget.

Democrats green policies and social programs are highly inflationary.

MAGA’s run the same risk of being tone deaf on inflation, but oil is back to $73 as we speak. Inflation is going to tank if oil stays sub $75

Trump read the room correctly, there was no public appetite to continue the war.
 

Palmerhawk

All-Conference
Jul 3, 2025
1,938
3,854
113
Trump found a way to lower oil prices; lift sanctions on both Iran and Russia so their oil is back on the open market.

By helping our adversaries desperate for cash Trump has found a way to reduce prices.

Trump is critical for a Russia and Iran comeback.

Totally FUBAR!
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
25,424
24,175
113
Oil down to an equilibrium price, imo, around $70

Micron just absolutely crushed earnings. They also state that demand will be strong through 2028.

IF, big IF, oils stays below $75 you will see the current view of expected Intrest rates increase reverse quickly.


This is shaping up nicely for the 2nd half of the year. I expect the economy to be humming running into midterms.

Voters wallets will be nice and fat around midterms.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TigerGrowls

hawkeyetraveler

Heisman
Aug 10, 2010
5,586
22,514
108

He is probably right, but probably is will be like the timing of his new vehicle launches….a few years behind schedule.

I suspect the genesis of it won’t be falling oil prices. It will be sometime a few years from now when AI displaces enough workers that demand falls.
 
  • Like
Reactions: fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
25,424
24,175
113
He is probably right, but probably is will be like the timing of his new vehicle launches….a few years behind schedule.

I suspect the genesis of it won’t be falling oil prices. It will be sometime a few years from now when AI displaces enough workers that demand falls.
agreed 100%.
 

Palmerhawk

All-Conference
Jul 3, 2025
1,938
3,854
113
All trump had to do was spend 200 billion on a losing war, assure Iran of a half a trillion in cash and lift all sanction on Iranian and Russian oil and he has gotten oil down to only 15 dollars a barrel more than in Feb!

What a foreign policy genius this guy isn't.
 

fsu1jreed

Heisman
Apr 1, 2002
9,186
17,084
113
All trump had to do was spend 200 billion on a losing war, assure Iran of a half a trillion in cash and lift all sanction on Iranian and Russian oil and he has gotten oil down to only 15 dollars a barrel more than in Feb!

What a foreign policy genius this guy isn't.

Art of the deal ...and these morons think he's some genius playing 5d Chess
 
  • Like
Reactions: Wobmam Rulez!

TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
46,422
35,487
113
Interesting analysis.



Do you want to see a perfect example of propaganda media?

Here’s the headline from CNBC:

“Job seekers giving up: Labor force participation rate falls to lowest in 50 years, outside of Covid era”

Sounds really bleak, doesn’t it?

Sounds like the Trump economy is doing really bad, right?

Here’s more propaganda.

“•June’s drop in the unemployment rate was because of an exodus of workers from the labor force.
•The labor force participation rate, which measures the working-age population of those either employed or looking for a job, fell to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
•Excluding the Covid-era jobs market, it was the lowest participation rate since June 1976.
•The labor force plummeted by 720,000 in June.”

There was an “exodus” of workers from the labor force.
The propaganda media wants you to believe that there’s no jobs out there and workers are “giving up” looking.

A huge drop in June.

I wonder why?

When you read down near the end of the story, you see some clues that this is really only half the story.

“What really affects me is not so much the unemployment rate,” said Dan North, senior economist for North America at Allianz. “What’s an important development is the participation rate, and this is a big leg down in one month, and over the past year it’s a pretty big leg down.”

Now, what could possibly be driving down the “participation rate” over the last month and year?

They hinted at the answer:

“The drop in participation is sometimes attributed to a shrinking immigrant population and retiring baby boomers and Gen Xers.
However, in June the biggest plunge came from what is defined as “prime age” workers, or those between the ages of 25 and 54.”

A “shrinking immigrant population?”

You don’t say?

Didn’t we just learn that 10,000 illegal immigrants were arrested for deportation, over the last five days alone?

Hasn’t there been a record number of deportations of illegal immigrants over the last year?

And hasn’t there also been a record number of illegal immigrants self-deporting over the last year?

Does anybody think that’s not the main reason, why the “participation rate” has dropped so drastically?

Here’s another clue:

“To be sure, some economists said the June numbers seem out of sort. Specifically, they cited the large decline in leisure and hospitality workers as a sign that the data could be noisy.”

There was a “large decline” in leisure and hospitality?

Why?

(Brave search engine)
——————-
“Undocumented immigrants constitute a significant portion of the U.S. hospitality workforce, estimated at approximately 7.1% to 9% of the sector's total labor force. Data from the American Immigration Council indicates that this group comprises over 1 million workers within the industry, making hospitality the third-largest employer of undocumented labor after construction and agriculture.”
———————

And do you think the recent ICE raids on businesses in Florida and Alabama, might be encouraging more illegal immigrants to quit looking for jobs in America?

Here’s the proof that it’s illegals no longer “participating.”

“And while the establishment survey, which counts jobs filled, showed growth for the month of 57,000, the survey of households, which counts the actual level of those working, tumbled by 507,000.”

cnbc.com/2026/07/02/job…

So jobs filled is increasing, not decreasing.

It’s just the number of people looking for jobs, that’s massively decreasing, while at the same time, a massive amount of illegals are being deported.

That’s not a coincidence.

More jobs for Americans.

Making America Great Again!