Step Away from the Ledge
- Thread starter aman kidwai
- Start date
I think at the beginning of the season I and many others thought at least sweet 16, and now the author is saying that a sweet 16 would be a good result. I think that says it all.
To me this season, last season and the next two are HUGE for UCONN because we get to see if Ollie is the real thing. We are spoiled with NC's so GREAT seasons are expected to at least be in site.
This mentality works other places, but not in Storrs. This is a veteran group of talented players that cant put 40 minutes together. But we all know, if they could and if the coach implemented a rotation and a system to mask some of the individual players warts, this team could make a final four.
The team has not reached its potential and I am not sure if it will. Some of the main problems are that Jalen Adams has not developed as quickly as one would like into a consistent player/leader, and as a result the halfcourt offense has been very erratic to downright bad. The defense has been very good, but has not produced much offense, and the team has not finished games strongly against better competition. The team is also plagued by bad decision making by the guards at times, and an inexplicably poor ability by the guards to finish drives/layups.
On the bright side, UConn's defense seems to keep them in games and nobody has blown UConn out this year. I think the worst loss was to Maryland by 10, and that game was closer than the final score. You have the feeling that UConn will be in every game against good teams right to the end, but you do not have that warm and fuzzy feeling that they will just figure out a way to win the game in the end, as did UConn teams of the past. This highlights another problem which is the lack of a true star player in the mold of Kemba Walker or Shabazz Napier, who could be relied on for big plays at the end of the games, which were often winning plays.
On the bright side, UConn's defense seems to keep them in games and nobody has blown UConn out this year. I think the worst loss was to Maryland by 10, and that game was closer than the final score. You have the feeling that UConn will be in every game against good teams right to the end, but you do not have that warm and fuzzy feeling that they will just figure out a way to win the game in the end, as did UConn teams of the past. This highlights another problem which is the lack of a true star player in the mold of Kemba Walker or Shabazz Napier, who could be relied on for big plays at the end of the games, which were often winning plays.
Basketball IQ is obviously the major deficiency, Khalid.
Like you've said a bunch of times, why can't we find Gibbs open 3's? That is his strength and probably his only + skill. And as good a passer as Hamilton is, even he doesn't find his teammate(Gibbs) when he drives. If he passes it's to the rim and doesn't kick it out very often. This also happens with Calhoun at times. He's very streaky, but if he makes one, he shouldn't have to wait 10 minutes to get another look.
We also need to feed Miller late in games. Gibbs is no Bazz or Kemba. Hell, he isn't even close to Boat trying to create his own shot at the end of a possession. If anything, Adams should try and create because he's athletic enough to get to the rim and have a chance of finishing.
Also why haven't we seen Hamilton on the foul line as much against zone? he's lethal there because he can score or create a dunk if you have to double him.
Purvis is who he is. If he's hot and playing well, ride him. If he's not, he should ride the pine.
Like you've said a bunch of times, why can't we find Gibbs open 3's? That is his strength and probably his only + skill. And as good a passer as Hamilton is, even he doesn't find his teammate(Gibbs) when he drives. If he passes it's to the rim and doesn't kick it out very often. This also happens with Calhoun at times. He's very streaky, but if he makes one, he shouldn't have to wait 10 minutes to get another look.
We also need to feed Miller late in games. Gibbs is no Bazz or Kemba. Hell, he isn't even close to Boat trying to create his own shot at the end of a possession. If anything, Adams should try and create because he's athletic enough to get to the rim and have a chance of finishing.
Also why haven't we seen Hamilton on the foul line as much against zone? he's lethal there because he can score or create a dunk if you have to double him.
Purvis is who he is. If he's hot and playing well, ride him. If he's not, he should ride the pine.
Canolee from rewatching games I have noticed that Gibbs tends to stand around a lot when there are shots going up or a UConn player driving. He doesn't seem to move to open areas of the floor or make himself available as a pass option to Hamilton, Purvis, Jalen or whomever may be driving to the hoop for a kickout 3.
For instance there was a possession in the temple game towards the end where Jalen passed it to Hamilton to drove toward the baseline from the wing and got cut off. Jalen filled back in to the wing meanwhile Purvis was top of the key more or less playing safety to prevent a Temple fast break layup and Gibbs was within 10 feet of Purvis towards the UConn bench (the play was on the other side of the court). There were 4 Temple defenders in Hamiltons view/in the paint and 1 was by the top of key between Adams and Purvis. Instead of Gibbs floating or moving to the opposite corner to make himself available for a skip pass by Hamilton and to just be in Hamiltons view he just stood up by the top of the key/opposite wing out of Hamiltons vision. As was also noted in the game video recap on this site Gibbs was responsible for a Dingle top of the key 3 late in the game because he was standing watching the guys rebound and didn't pay attention to his responsibility of keeping track of the trailer.
Purvis gets a bad rap but he is this teams Rickey Moore. To say if he isnt hot he should ride the pine is ludicrous. His on ball defense and perimeter defense is as much needed as anything on the team. He is also better than anyone else not named Jalen at slashing and attacking the defense in transition or in the half court game when he gets a crease that he can exploit.
This teams major deficiency is Gibbs not being able to run the offense. He pounds the ball into the ground and wastes too much time getting into the offensive sets
For instance there was a possession in the temple game towards the end where Jalen passed it to Hamilton to drove toward the baseline from the wing and got cut off. Jalen filled back in to the wing meanwhile Purvis was top of the key more or less playing safety to prevent a Temple fast break layup and Gibbs was within 10 feet of Purvis towards the UConn bench (the play was on the other side of the court). There were 4 Temple defenders in Hamiltons view/in the paint and 1 was by the top of key between Adams and Purvis. Instead of Gibbs floating or moving to the opposite corner to make himself available for a skip pass by Hamilton and to just be in Hamiltons view he just stood up by the top of the key/opposite wing out of Hamiltons vision. As was also noted in the game video recap on this site Gibbs was responsible for a Dingle top of the key 3 late in the game because he was standing watching the guys rebound and didn't pay attention to his responsibility of keeping track of the trailer.
Purvis gets a bad rap but he is this teams Rickey Moore. To say if he isnt hot he should ride the pine is ludicrous. His on ball defense and perimeter defense is as much needed as anything on the team. He is also better than anyone else not named Jalen at slashing and attacking the defense in transition or in the half court game when he gets a crease that he can exploit.
This teams major deficiency is Gibbs not being able to run the offense. He pounds the ball into the ground and wastes too much time getting into the offensive sets
As we all saw in the Cincy game the half court offense was a horror show and after that when Jalen was allowed to start at point guard the offense looked better. But Jalen is up and down with his play and seemingly in and out of the Ollie doghouse.
Gibbs is not a point guard and his main value is as a 3 point shooter. But a 3 point shooter who doesn't get open, whether it's because he is standing around and not moving without the ball or poor screen setting, is not of much help especially when he is not good on defense.
The other problem with Gibbs is that he cannot turn the corner on anyone who is halfway decent defensively. In the Cincy game his attempted penetrations were repeatedly thwarted by Copain who simply kept Gibbs in front of him and played rock solid defense.
But apart from singling out Gibbs as one dimensional the team lacks basketball IQ. As noted a guy like Gibbs if he is getting open can be a very dangerous threat. But either he or the team or both do not get him open looks on a consistent basis. It is a failure to have a guy seeing major minutes and not put him to his best use.
Look at Jimmer Fredette- all the guy can do is shoot 3s and he was college player of the year over Kemba which was very debatable, but still that is all Jimmer could do, which is why he is in the D League all star game jacking up 3s and dropping 35.
Play with some more smarts guys!!!! Please!!!! I guess it's hard to ask because your either smart or you aren't. The team basketball IQ isn't good IMHO.
Gibbs is not a point guard and his main value is as a 3 point shooter. But a 3 point shooter who doesn't get open, whether it's because he is standing around and not moving without the ball or poor screen setting, is not of much help especially when he is not good on defense.
The other problem with Gibbs is that he cannot turn the corner on anyone who is halfway decent defensively. In the Cincy game his attempted penetrations were repeatedly thwarted by Copain who simply kept Gibbs in front of him and played rock solid defense.
But apart from singling out Gibbs as one dimensional the team lacks basketball IQ. As noted a guy like Gibbs if he is getting open can be a very dangerous threat. But either he or the team or both do not get him open looks on a consistent basis. It is a failure to have a guy seeing major minutes and not put him to his best use.
Look at Jimmer Fredette- all the guy can do is shoot 3s and he was college player of the year over Kemba which was very debatable, but still that is all Jimmer could do, which is why he is in the D League all star game jacking up 3s and dropping 35.
Play with some more smarts guys!!!! Please!!!! I guess it's hard to ask because your either smart or you aren't. The team basketball IQ isn't good IMHO.
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Khalid, i love defense more than anyone, but if you want basketball IQ, Purvis is not high on the list. He had a great floater to stop the bleeding late against Tulsa, but for everyone of those, there is a double dribble at crunch time against Temple or 3 missed point blank lay ups in a row.
Good observation on Gibbs not moving to work himself open. Although, I'm still not sure we have the overall court vision to find the open man as often as they should.
Good observation on Gibbs not moving to work himself open. Although, I'm still not sure we have the overall court vision to find the open man as often as they should.
Rodney Purvis is one of the more enigmatic players I have ever seen at UConn. What is mainly holding him back as a player is his poor handle, which results in those double dribbles, and an inability to change direction with the dribble, resulting in so many offensive fouls last year, although he has gotten MUCH better at avoiding charges. If Purvis had a better handle he would have perfected a step back 3 like Stephon Curry has, because Rodney has the range on his shot, but that is what is holding him back and making him a merely serviceable player, rather than a star. He can't do that quick flick of a crossover like Curry does. Curry does one body fake with his dribble, steps back and in a split second is wide open. He is an awesome player.
Purvis has missed more layups in transition this year than anyone I have ever seen. It's not because of lack of aggression, it's because of a lack of touch, and sometime because he doesn't change directions well with the ball, again because of the weak handle.
Between his propensity for TOs and his poor FT shooting, he is a guy who you have to be careful about letting him handle the ball late in a close game.
But despite all those issues, I think Rodney plays hard and hustles, and his D is very good. He also has learned to play the passing lanes well, and it's a big reason why UConn was holding opponents under 40% FGs for 11 straight games until this recent debacle against Tulsa.
I actually think his basketball IQ might be a little bit better than Jerome Dyson's. Rodney has also shown some improvement with his decision-making, but his weak handle holds him back from being an outstanding player. Because he was a McDonald's All American and has such a great body, high expectations have always followed him, and sometimes we really do expect too much from our players at UConn.
Purvis has missed more layups in transition this year than anyone I have ever seen. It's not because of lack of aggression, it's because of a lack of touch, and sometime because he doesn't change directions well with the ball, again because of the weak handle.
Between his propensity for TOs and his poor FT shooting, he is a guy who you have to be careful about letting him handle the ball late in a close game.
But despite all those issues, I think Rodney plays hard and hustles, and his D is very good. He also has learned to play the passing lanes well, and it's a big reason why UConn was holding opponents under 40% FGs for 11 straight games until this recent debacle against Tulsa.
I actually think his basketball IQ might be a little bit better than Jerome Dyson's. Rodney has also shown some improvement with his decision-making, but his weak handle holds him back from being an outstanding player. Because he was a McDonald's All American and has such a great body, high expectations have always followed him, and sometimes we really do expect too much from our players at UConn.
Oz - So Gibbs is the main problem here? I actually don't know where we would be if we went into the year with Jalen having to be handed all the minutes. Big time Jalen fan but he hasn't matured as quickly on the court as we had expected and certainly seems like he needs more maturing off the court as well being in and out of KO's doghouse when we need him to be out there.
I know Gibbs is the whipping boy and Jalen is the golden child but to single him out as the main issue is off base to me. Gibbs is what he is, a spot up shooter who can handle PG duties in a pinch but not exclusively. KO seemed to figure that out when he inserted JA into the starting lineup and moved Gibbs off the ball but Adams getting himself benched multiple times doesn't help things either
Let's not pretend like the hot potato around the perimeter wasn't an issue long before this year. Our offense has lacked movement and execution in the half court forever.
Going back to Calhoun era, halfcourt offense was never that good but for most of Calhoun's reign, the team generated enough offense off the defense that it did not seem as big a problem. The defense is still very good, but for some reason, we do not turn it into offense, and when transition opportunities arise, none of the guards finish very well.
Khalid -
Purvis isn't as bad as FT shooter as his numbers say. He started the season poorly but since conference play started he is shooting 72% (26/36) prior to that he was 50% (21-42).
I believe he more of a 70% ft shooter than 50%
Purvis isn't as bad as FT shooter as his numbers say. He started the season poorly but since conference play started he is shooting 72% (26/36) prior to that he was 50% (21-42).
I believe he more of a 70% ft shooter than 50%
Purvis is at 60.3% for the season, and 55% for his career, on FTs. While he has improved, these are not good percentages for a starting guard, and Taliek Brown at 57.8% was a better career FT shooter:
Rodney's stats:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/rodney-purvis-1.html
Taliek's stats:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/taliek-brown-1.html
Also, when you consider Rodney is stroking at 40% from 3 point land (and many from very deep), it's really inexplicable. He should be over 70% on FTs, but he isn't, and has a long way to go.
Rodney's stats:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/rodney-purvis-1.html
Taliek's stats:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/taliek-brown-1.html
Also, when you consider Rodney is stroking at 40% from 3 point land (and many from very deep), it's really inexplicable. He should be over 70% on FTs, but he isn't, and has a long way to go.
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I don't think we have any issues with bad players who get minutes. We are a top team in the country (top30-40) where we have issues is that while we have players who CAN be great we none that are. Hamilton has hurt his draft stock over the past 10 games or so, Purvis is better than last year but not much, Gibbs cooled off to a non-factor over the past 10 games or so....
What I do like is that we would be 2-3 games better if Brimah didn't miss 11 games, that is a fact. Adams is right where I though he would be. I see him make a lot the same mistakes Walker made his Freshman year.
What I do like is that we would be 2-3 games better if Brimah didn't miss 11 games, that is a fact. Adams is right where I though he would be. I see him make a lot the same mistakes Walker made his Freshman year.
Don't think it's about the ledge, just that not much has changed...Team has a bunch of effective players in moments, who are inconsistent and all have their warts...but no leadership and followership in crunch time. Alot of the perimeter passing seems to be a case of.... you take it, no you take it....no you take it... and then someone is forced to make any play( good or bad) when the clock runs down.... but the funny thing is this is what we talked about at the very start of the season...( the whole alpha dog thing)....One thing that has changed is when the inconsistency happens...earlier in the year the problem was them falling way behind and then making a late push to close the deficit ...lately it's been the other way around....
What I'd love to see from here out is solid 40 minute games with low TO's ( under 8)
What I'd love to see from here out is solid 40 minute games with low TO's ( under 8)
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Silk,
I am saying he has not helped or improved the team as hoped for. Obviously no one to turn to as Jalen is young but Stevie wonder can you see he has the most potential and proving it thought out games. Why not turn him loose like other programs do to their "star" freshmen players.
Been saying this since beginning of season.... He should be 6th man Giffey type where he can throw up 5-10 heck 15 three pointers if he wanted to. Also he will not be relied upon as much for trying to play lock down D with limited minutes. I understand Coach is in a catch 22 on who he can turn to and rely on but if Jalen was let off his leash more early I think we would not have these collapses where guards look slow and tired especially towards the end of the game.
I am saying he has not helped or improved the team as hoped for. Obviously no one to turn to as Jalen is young but Stevie wonder can you see he has the most potential and proving it thought out games. Why not turn him loose like other programs do to their "star" freshmen players.
Been saying this since beginning of season.... He should be 6th man Giffey type where he can throw up 5-10 heck 15 three pointers if he wanted to. Also he will not be relied upon as much for trying to play lock down D with limited minutes. I understand Coach is in a catch 22 on who he can turn to and rely on but if Jalen was let off his leash more early I think we would not have these collapses where guards look slow and tired especially towards the end of the game.
Ozzie,
Lately it seems much of Adams' minutes have been doled out to Omar Calhoun. Omar has also been up and down with his play, but one thing I noticed about Omar is his attitude and effort are very consistent and his defense hasn't been bad.
Jalen did have a couple of big plays late in that game, a hustle blocked shot and a key O-board. Those are the kind of positives the team needs to see from him. College ball has been a big adjustment for him. He has talent but his physical talents exceed his basketball IQ. He plays like a freshman.
As Blades said, leadership has been a big issue, and the team has been really bad as far as any kind of consistency on someone taking and making late game shots and big plays. We were spoiled by Kemba and Shabazz because they both matured into Alpha Dogs. I thought Daniel Hamilton could be that guy but he doesn't have a consistent go to move or shot. He goes to his right a lot and tries to bank a shot or fadeaway, and he doesn't throw up bricks, but he is thrown off by a little bit of defensive contact. Two things need to happen with him, he needs to gain physical strength to absorb that contact, and he also needs to want it more and have more confidence. I sometimes see what looks like a defeated body language from Hamilton when things are not going well.
I mention Steph Curry earlier because he is a player I truly admire. Unlike your prototypical NBA All Star, he doesn't have a great body like LeBron James, nor does he have tremendous athleticism like Russell Westbrook. What Steph has is tremendous skills and a patented move, namely that step back jumper which he always creates off a crossover dribble. He has about 20 different crossover dribbles which he combines with body fakes and he does it so quickly and so smoothly that the defender is paralyzed, and in that moment of paralysis he become wide open and then has a silky smooth shot, stroking 45% of NBA range 3 pointers. I don't know that I have seen a more skilled player since Larry Bird.
Stephon Curry is very unpredictable but Daniel Hamilton's repertoire is very predictable and needs to be diversified. All of that being said, he is an incredible rebounder for his size and body type.
Lately it seems much of Adams' minutes have been doled out to Omar Calhoun. Omar has also been up and down with his play, but one thing I noticed about Omar is his attitude and effort are very consistent and his defense hasn't been bad.
Jalen did have a couple of big plays late in that game, a hustle blocked shot and a key O-board. Those are the kind of positives the team needs to see from him. College ball has been a big adjustment for him. He has talent but his physical talents exceed his basketball IQ. He plays like a freshman.
As Blades said, leadership has been a big issue, and the team has been really bad as far as any kind of consistency on someone taking and making late game shots and big plays. We were spoiled by Kemba and Shabazz because they both matured into Alpha Dogs. I thought Daniel Hamilton could be that guy but he doesn't have a consistent go to move or shot. He goes to his right a lot and tries to bank a shot or fadeaway, and he doesn't throw up bricks, but he is thrown off by a little bit of defensive contact. Two things need to happen with him, he needs to gain physical strength to absorb that contact, and he also needs to want it more and have more confidence. I sometimes see what looks like a defeated body language from Hamilton when things are not going well.
I mention Steph Curry earlier because he is a player I truly admire. Unlike your prototypical NBA All Star, he doesn't have a great body like LeBron James, nor does he have tremendous athleticism like Russell Westbrook. What Steph has is tremendous skills and a patented move, namely that step back jumper which he always creates off a crossover dribble. He has about 20 different crossover dribbles which he combines with body fakes and he does it so quickly and so smoothly that the defender is paralyzed, and in that moment of paralysis he become wide open and then has a silky smooth shot, stroking 45% of NBA range 3 pointers. I don't know that I have seen a more skilled player since Larry Bird.
Stephon Curry is very unpredictable but Daniel Hamilton's repertoire is very predictable and needs to be diversified. All of that being said, he is an incredible rebounder for his size and body type.
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Oz,
I totally get your standpoint with Adams and I'm in that corner as well. He just seems like he is getting in his own way since KO inserted him into the starting lineup and has since had to pull him or bench during games for reasons we don't really know.
Gibbs off the ball is where we agree and I think it doesn't really matter if Gibbs is starting or coming off the bench at this point. Purvis seems to bring more energy off the pine in that regard. In any event I want to see Adams unleashed just like you but time is running out for that to happen.
I watched Jalen Brunson destroy Temple last night. He has been given way more freedom than Adams has and while he may have been a couple of ticks higher on the PG rankings I viewed them as in the same kind of boat
I totally get your standpoint with Adams and I'm in that corner as well. He just seems like he is getting in his own way since KO inserted him into the starting lineup and has since had to pull him or bench during games for reasons we don't really know.
Gibbs off the ball is where we agree and I think it doesn't really matter if Gibbs is starting or coming off the bench at this point. Purvis seems to bring more energy off the pine in that regard. In any event I want to see Adams unleashed just like you but time is running out for that to happen.
I watched Jalen Brunson destroy Temple last night. He has been given way more freedom than Adams has and while he may have been a couple of ticks higher on the PG rankings I viewed them as in the same kind of boat
I agree Silk, I think we all see it the same way, JA has that X factor with his breakdown ability, vision and D, he just needs to get past the bumps in the road that he's had with KO. Gibbs to no fault of his own is better off the ball, but is being forced into way to many minutes with the ball... by default. And we can't diminish his play from my point of view, because there is no one on the roster who could do better than him when JA's out. Plus throw in the fact that Gibbs has been a plus to this team overall and I can remember a stretch earlier in the year where he single-handedly won about 3 out of 4 games with timely plays and shooting.
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Gibbs definitely won the game at Tulane and home game against Memphis. But he is wearing down and overplayed at the point. As I mentioned previously GIbbs, if he is played off ball and if he gets some open looks, can be a very dangerous weapon. But neither of those things have been happening as much as they need to, hence building frustration. Gibbs is not being used to his greatest capacity. Perhaps if Jalen matures this chemistry problem will go away.
One of the worst home losses we have had recently when you consider the circumstances.
Coming into this one though we were a consensus 8 or 9 seed. This certainly knocks us down to the 10 or 11 seed level which doesn't leave much room for error. A lot of people are already calling SMU a must win or we are out but I don't see it as such.
We can still lose at SMU but then we will need to probably make the AAC finals in order to feel better about ourselves come Selection Sunday. The fact that we have put ourselves in this precarious situation is unacceptable on the players and coaches alike.
If UConn loses to SMU Thursday and then in the 1st round of AAC tournament, I believe they are headed to the NIT tournament for the second straight year. I don't think anything is a lock at this point, especially if the team doesn't perform well in the AAC tournament.
The team has been maddeningly inconsistent, but if you look at the games against the better AAC teams, UConn has not performed well. Most would say that 6th place in the AAC, of which UConn now has sole possession, should not be good enough to qualify. At the beginning of the year if I asked you guys will 6th place or even de facto 5th place will get in, you would all say in this suck-*** conference, no. The AAC has been continually insulted all year even by posters here, so what that means is 6th place out of 10 in a suck-*** conference means the team isn't good.
The team has been maddeningly inconsistent, but if you look at the games against the better AAC teams, UConn has not performed well. Most would say that 6th place in the AAC, of which UConn now has sole possession, should not be good enough to qualify. At the beginning of the year if I asked you guys will 6th place or even de facto 5th place will get in, you would all say in this suck-*** conference, no. The AAC has been continually insulted all year even by posters here, so what that means is 6th place out of 10 in a suck-*** conference means the team isn't good.
I think if they don't win out they need to win the AAC tourney....if we can expect anything from the NCAA committee it's no respect for the AAC. ( 2 teams maybe 3 teams tops) But besides that how can the 6th placed Huskies who are now ranked at a #52 RPI think they will be put in over AAC 1st placed (#54) Temple or (#51) Cincy who they are 0-4 against or even #40 Tulsa ? Yep... they really screwed the pooch last night and they played D like they didn't even care.
AAC Expanded Standings
AAC Expanded Standings
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I am firmly on the ledge. And I should tell you nobody is afraid of heights more than I am. I watched the movie Birdman last night and there are a few different scenes where characters are on the ledge of very tall buildings and they freaked me out. My knees go weak and I feel faint, watching such scenes.
http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology?iteration=244®ion=2&year=2016
UConn and Cincinnati 10 seeds and part of the last 4 byes
Temple 12 seed
Tulsa first 4 out
UConn and Cincinnati 10 seeds and part of the last 4 byes
Temple 12 seed
Tulsa first 4 out
We are currently a 10 seed in the updated bracketologies. We didn't knock ourselves out of the field but we left ourselves with little room for error.
The only thing we have going in our favor is that the bubble field is exceptionally weak this year. As bad as things seem for us, our numbers stack up favorably vs a lot of other fringe teams
The only thing we have going in our favor is that the bubble field is exceptionally weak this year. As bad as things seem for us, our numbers stack up favorably vs a lot of other fringe teams
Bracketology only assumes what the current status is. It does not assume that underdogs win conference tournies and seize automatic berths. Then on the 10 line down everyone gets pushed back.
Wichita State isn't a team I would like to face in the 1st round, but at this point I would just take being in the NCAA tournament. If UConn loses badly to SMU, has a feeble win over UCF and then is eliminated in the 1st round of AAC tourney, they could still be out if there are a bunch of upsets in conference tournies. These bracketologies do not analyze what happens when there is a slew of conference upsets, and NIT bound or nowhere bound teams suddenly get automatic berths. That is what is missing here.
Wichita State isn't a team I would like to face in the 1st round, but at this point I would just take being in the NCAA tournament. If UConn loses badly to SMU, has a feeble win over UCF and then is eliminated in the 1st round of AAC tourney, they could still be out if there are a bunch of upsets in conference tournies. These bracketologies do not analyze what happens when there is a slew of conference upsets, and NIT bound or nowhere bound teams suddenly get automatic berths. That is what is missing here.
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Well obviously they don't predict the future but unless a few bubble/non bubble teams in P5 conferences win their conference tournaments then this is a pretty good gauge of where things sit right now.
We are still averaging a 9 seed in the bracket matrix and are in the field in 76/77 of these bracket projections. The situation we put ourselves in sucks but it's not as dire as we may think. That being said - let's just beat SMU on Thursday to take us off the ledge
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
We are still averaging a 9 seed in the bracket matrix and are in the field in 76/77 of these bracket projections. The situation we put ourselves in sucks but it's not as dire as we may think. That being said - let's just beat SMU on Thursday to take us off the ledge
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
If to much faith is put into these brackets along with the NCAA selection committee to parrot them, we could have a lot of disappointed fans in the American again. What I don't like is the B1G, SEC, ACC, B12, Pac12, Big East, WCC, the MAC and even the Colonial and Big South are represented....... but again there is no one on that committee speaking up for the AAC
Silk I know you are trying to talk me off the ledge but it's not working right now. . . . I think somebody will need to call the SWAT team, LOL.
Just remember that many of the 13 and lower seeds will get eaten up by automatic qualifiers from weak conferences but there are teams in the power conferences, possibly destined for NIT, that suddenly earn themselves a berth with a great conference tournament and then what happens? Some of those teams will slot as high as the 10 line. For example, if a team like LSU wins the SEC tourney, they will not be a 13 seed. They will be 10 or better. That's how I see it shaking out. There are only 4 #10 seeds, someone gets pushed back.
If UConn loses at SMU they will dip from 10 seed status to 11 or lower. A win over UCF does nothing to seeding. Then it's all up to how UConn does in AAC tourney. And they will play someone good, maybe even someone that has already beaten them, and probably needing to win 2 games at that point. It's fairly easy to envision UConn going to the NIT and I would go so far as to say it's 50-50 or so at this point, unless a win happens Thursday night. Which UConn will not be favored to do.
I know you like to be an optimist but I am trying to be realistic here.
Just remember that many of the 13 and lower seeds will get eaten up by automatic qualifiers from weak conferences but there are teams in the power conferences, possibly destined for NIT, that suddenly earn themselves a berth with a great conference tournament and then what happens? Some of those teams will slot as high as the 10 line. For example, if a team like LSU wins the SEC tourney, they will not be a 13 seed. They will be 10 or better. That's how I see it shaking out. There are only 4 #10 seeds, someone gets pushed back.
If UConn loses at SMU they will dip from 10 seed status to 11 or lower. A win over UCF does nothing to seeding. Then it's all up to how UConn does in AAC tourney. And they will play someone good, maybe even someone that has already beaten them, and probably needing to win 2 games at that point. It's fairly easy to envision UConn going to the NIT and I would go so far as to say it's 50-50 or so at this point, unless a win happens Thursday night. Which UConn will not be favored to do.
I know you like to be an optimist but I am trying to be realistic here.
I'm right there with you on that ledge Khalid. And I'm the furthest thing from an optimist. I'm actual an eternal pessimist so I think I'm making such optimistic posts to try and convince myself that everything will be ok in the end.....
Despite my inherent negativity we have a lot of outs left to secure ourselves in the field.
1) Beat SMU and UCF and we are solid
2) Lose to SMU (no harm, no foul), beat UCF and get to the AAC championship game
3) If all else fails, do what last year's team couldn't do and win the AAC tourney
We have a lot more outs than last year's team did at this point in the year - as we know their only hope was to run the table during Championship Week. If we screw this up then the players and coaches have no one to blame but themselves.
This team should be solidly in the field but yet here we are on the ledge all holding hands ready to jump
Despite my inherent negativity we have a lot of outs left to secure ourselves in the field.
1) Beat SMU and UCF and we are solid
2) Lose to SMU (no harm, no foul), beat UCF and get to the AAC championship game
3) If all else fails, do what last year's team couldn't do and win the AAC tourney
We have a lot more outs than last year's team did at this point in the year - as we know their only hope was to run the table during Championship Week. If we screw this up then the players and coaches have no one to blame but themselves.
This team should be solidly in the field but yet here we are on the ledge all holding hands ready to jump
So is this close enough to the ledge for the author ?
Bracketology: Field of 68
Last four in: Michigan, Vanderbilt, Connecticut, Tulsa
A 6th place finish in the AAC ? 5th seed in the tourney ? how's that gonna get you in the NCAA's ?....Uconn's choke job vs. Houston gave them the 2 seed. Never judge a team by some meaningless rankings ahead of time. Judge them by watching em' with your eyes and what they do when they have to play vs. quality. 3-7 vs. the top 5 teams in the AAC means they aren't going anywhere unless they win the AAC tourney which still may be a struggle even with SMU out..... starts Friday at 2pm vs. Cincy or Tulsa ( Ciny's final game at home vs. SMU -Sun at Noon....... Tulsa's got USF at home today 5pm)
AAC Championship Central
Bracketology: Field of 68
Last four in: Michigan, Vanderbilt, Connecticut, Tulsa
A 6th place finish in the AAC ? 5th seed in the tourney ? how's that gonna get you in the NCAA's ?....Uconn's choke job vs. Houston gave them the 2 seed. Never judge a team by some meaningless rankings ahead of time. Judge them by watching em' with your eyes and what they do when they have to play vs. quality. 3-7 vs. the top 5 teams in the AAC means they aren't going anywhere unless they win the AAC tourney which still may be a struggle even with SMU out..... starts Friday at 2pm vs. Cincy or Tulsa ( Ciny's final game at home vs. SMU -Sun at Noon....... Tulsa's got USF at home today 5pm)
AAC Championship Central
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It's really dicy for UConn. They look better on paper than they do with the eye test the last 2 games. I think they have to beat UCF and then win 2 in the AAC, otherwise they are in the NIT 2 straight years. It's a tall order.
I don't think that does it, especially when the NCAA bracket crashers take away the bottom spots as you mentioned above. Then to me would the committee put in a 6th place Uconn over teams like 1st place Temple who did it over the entire AAC schedule and is 2-0 vs. Uconn or Cincy who was the same ? Way to much wishful thinking by Uconn fans unless they win out.
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The bracket crashers loom as a big problem because they are never factored into bracketology which always means the "last 4 in" are in jeopardy. My thinking is if UConn wins 2 in AAC tourney, they would be a more respectable 5-7 against AAC top 5, which still isn't terribly impressive, but UConn has better nonconference wins.
If it weren't for strong recruiting I would also say Kevin Ollie's job would be in jeopardy. It's been two straight seasons of underachievement.
If it weren't for strong recruiting I would also say Kevin Ollie's job would be in jeopardy. It's been two straight seasons of underachievement.