Shooting, yo.

[PatrickYates]

Going into this season, we knew this "might" be a problem. It is looming as a horrible problem. Cam has regressed after an insanely hot start. RJ has stepped up his perimeter shooting. White is fine, and AOC looks good, but neither of them really figure to take enough to move the meter. Tre isn't the perimeter shooter we'd hoped he'd be. And the three guys who figure to take the most FTs, RJ, Zion, and Tre (in that order), look shaky from the FT line. RJ and Zion are especially weak, and they might take more (and possibly far more) FTs than the rest of the team combined.
.
Vs good teams, this will be a huge problem. We'll still win most of our games, but we'll have real trouble vs the types of teams we will definitely face from the Elite 8 on.

 

[dukehokie]

We’ll have plenty of chances to see how bad of a problem it actually will be in ACC play. UVA, Syracuse, FSU, Louisville, VT and to a degree NC St. will force Duke to shoot from mid range - out.

It seems as though the defense has been the main focus for now, so I’d expect this month and beyond, the shooting will be addressed. Once Duke gets out of ACC play, let’s see if there’s a change. I’d expect there to be a big difference.

 

[ijloehner]

I agree a lot with the defensive focus aspect. I believe this team is designed to win games with their defense and rebounding. We are who we are. We’ll go through periods of hot streaks and cold streaks and the truth will lie somewhere in between. Bad shooters won’t become good shooters over the course of this one season. And I don’t believe anyone to be a bad shooter, just not to the same level as we are used to at Duke. And all of that is fine.

Free throw shooting is something that can be strengthened between now and March, it depends how much time our guys are willing to work at it. But we haven’t yet seen pressure free throws really. You can throw out percentages when it comes to pressure free throws, you either make them or you don’t. Good free throw shooters consistently miss pressure free throws and bad free throw shooters can consistently make them.

All that being said I truly believe defense will make this team great. Imagine being a Virginia level defense but having the talent we have on offense. Defense and rebounding controls the game and we have the athletes both laterally and horizontally to be elite. If we control both glasses and our defensive end, the rest will easily work itself out. Our offense has been shaky at best the last couple of games and you can still look up at the end and see a 30 point victory.

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

Strengthening FT shooting in a couple months ....I don’t see it or see it.

 

[dukehokie]

I’d like to add, I’m also feeling like the free throw shooting thing is a bit overblown. 64% is not ideal, but by no stretch of the imagination is it a killer, especially when you make 20, and the other team takes 11. Obviously that discrepancy won’t be the same every game, but Duke has consistently gotten to the line this season and will continue to do so.

Consider this, against Yale, Duke shot 46%(7-15) in the first half and 81% (13-16) in the second with basically the same guys shooting.

In the only loss of the season, Duke shot 76% from the line on 20-26 shooting. The winning team, Gonzaga shot 59% on 11-19 shooting. So clearly Duke shot as well as we all hope and it still didn’t matter.

Missing a key free throw in a locked up 78-78 game with 6.8 seconds left is obviously devastating, but it’s far from the reason a team loses a game. Poor shooting from the field and then the inability to secure the rebound on multiple occasions is more of a factor in my opinion. Inability to stop shooters from getting the shots they prefer (see Gonzaga and the majority of the 2017-2018 season) is a bigger factor IMO.

Obviously we want our team the shoot well from the line, but of this team’s flaws, it’s the least of my worries.

 

[dukehokie]

I agree a lot with the defensive focus aspect. I believe this team is designed to win games with their defense and rebounding. We are who we are. We’ll go through periods of hot streaks and cold streaks and the truth will lie somewhere in between. Bad shooters won’t become good shooters over the course of this one season. And I don’t believe anyone to be a bad shooter, just not to the same level as we are used to at Duke. And all of that is fine.

Free throw shooting is something that can be strengthened between now and March, it depends how much time our guys are willing to work at it. But we haven’t yet seen pressure free throws really. You can throw out percentages when it comes to pressure free throws, you either make them or you don’t. Good free throw shooters consistently miss pressure free throws and bad free throw shooters can consistently make them.

All that being said I truly believe defense will make this team great. Imagine being a Virginia level defense but having the talent we have on offense. Defense and rebounding controls the game and we have the athletes both laterally and horizontally to be elite. If we control both glasses and our defensive end, the rest will easily work itself out. Our offense has been shaky at best the last couple of games and you can still look up at the end and see a 30 point victory.

And to your point about pressure FT’s, against Gonzaga, in the last 8 minutes, Duke shot only 3 free throws. 1-2 from Javin and 0-1 from RJ. That’s it. So regardless of how well they’re shooting, the team needs to make a concerted effort to get to the line in late game situations. K tried that with RJ, but somehow one of the best foul producers in college couldn’t get a foul call in four straight attempts.

 

[Mac9192]

Right now, we’re getting a lot of points from turnovers. I want to see how we do playing a disciplined team, and one that takes care of the ball.
But, it’s easier for K to teach this bunch what they need to do because they want to get better.

 

[SwatX1]

Right now, we’re getting a lot of points from turnovers. I want to see how we do playing a disciplined team, and one that takes care of the ball.
But, it’s easier for K to teach this bunch what they need to do because they want to get better.

Agreed.....I'm anxious to see how we play against Cuse and UVA
and I agree completely. I think this team really wants to be the best "team" they can be. I believe they know they can be special and want to see that come to fruition

 

[PatrickYates]

The defense might not carry us vs better teams. UVA plays so conservatively that they won't turn it over to give us easy shots. Cuse will dare us to shoot from the perimeter. Kansas, like Gonzaga, is good enough on O to, again, prevent our easy buckets.
.
Our great D the last few weeks has been against bad opponents. IU being the best one we've seen since the Zags, and they are a mediocre team. The Zags shredded our D.
.
Our half court D is not great. We give up a lot of good looks at the basket. Don't conflate lots of TOs with great D. We didn't force every TO that Yale had last night. They made some mind blowingly stupid decisions, and we took advantage. These lesser teams have no idea that people as long and athletic as our guys even exist, so they don't react well to it in person. Better teams won't make as many dumb decisions. Without ample TOs, our offense will not be as effective, and I don't think our half court D will hold up as well vs great teams.
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Which wouldn't be a problem if RJ and Zion would make their FTs.

 

[Mac9192]

The defense might not carry us vs better teams. UVA plays so conservatively that they won't turn it over to give us easy shots. Cuse will dare us to shoot from the perimeter. Kansas, like Gonzaga, is good enough on O to, again, prevent our easy buckets.
.
Our great D the last few weeks has been against bad opponents. IU being the best one we've seen since the Zags, and they are a mediocre team. The Zags shredded our D.
.
Our half court D is not great. We give up a lot of good looks at the basket. Don't conflate lots of TOs with great D. We didn't force every TO that Yale had last night. They made some mind blowingly stupid decisions, and we took advantage. These lesser teams have no idea that people as long and athletic as our guys even exist, so they don't react well to it in person. Better teams won't make as many dumb decisions. Without ample TOs, our offense will not be as effective, and I don't think our half court D will hold up as well vs great teams.
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Which wouldn't be a problem if RJ and Zion would make their FTs.

I’ll agree that the competition hasn’t been as stiff as needed. That will come. The difference though that you need to factor in is 2 things this team has. Hunger and talent. We haven’t had these two together in a few years.

We might take a few losses going forward, but, this bunch will want to improve, and because they listen to K, I think they will.

 

[skysdad]

The defense might not carry us vs better teams. UVA plays so conservatively that they won't turn it over to give us easy shots. Cuse will dare us to shoot from the perimeter. Kansas, like Gonzaga, is good enough on O to, again, prevent our easy buckets.
.
Our great D the last few weeks has been against bad opponents. IU being the best one we've seen since the Zags, and they are a mediocre team. The Zags shredded our D.
.
Our half court D is not great. We give up a lot of good looks at the basket. Don't conflate lots of TOs with great D. We didn't force every TO that Yale had last night. They made some mind blowingly stupid decisions, and we took advantage. These lesser teams have no idea that people as long and athletic as our guys even exist, so they don't react well to it in person. Better teams won't make as many dumb decisions. Without ample TOs, our offense will not be as effective, and I don't think our half court D will hold up as well vs great teams.
.
Which wouldn't be a problem if RJ and Zion would make their FTs.

With all that said this team might not even make the NIT. I'm beginning to worry and have become depressed. If Coach K can't fix it perhaps it is time for a coaching season right now. Anyone here know how to get this team where it needs to be. OFC
C

 

[nets on nets on nets]

Shooting is the biggest concern on this team IMO. We are way ahead of any other team in terms of firepower, so it’s one of those cases where...if we’re hot from 3, the game won’t be competitive, a la the UK game.

I’d much rather have shooting be a big concern than say...perimeter defense (last few years.) We can still get to 90 based off sheer athleticism.

We also just need to find the right blend of when to attack and when to shoot. The Gonzaga game we made a constant effort to attack the basket the WHOLE game...you could tell they knew down the stretch what we were gonna do. We still need to stretch the defense, regardless of how many easy buckets we get.


Cam is the guy yo. When Cam can give us great shooting from 3, I really don’t see how we can be beat.

 

[Showenuff]

The insane part is, we're gonna get better. And me personally, I believe when Cuse and UVA "dare" us to shoot from outside, they're gonna be sorry. Cam ain't gonna be cold forever, and Alex is almost never cold from 3. And RJ, you notice he shoots 2 different shots from 3? The quick ones he pops off brick 90% of the time. That one he squares up, sets up and almost looks like he's holding both hands out after the release almost always swishes. Yo, RJ, use that one more please. As for Zion, if he never shot another 3 in his life, , I'd be great with that. As for Jack, I like everytime he pulls up from 3. We'll be okay against great zoning teams IMO. And I'm not SO sure they'll keep Zion and RJ out of the paint with great regularity.

 

[PatrickYates]

With all that said this team might not even make the NIT. I'm beginning to worry and have become depressed. If Coach K can't fix it perhaps it is time for a coaching season right now. Anyone here know how to get this team where it needs to be. OFC
C

IDGAF about beating the bottom 98% of college teams. That is a effing Given, or else.
.
I do worry about beating the top 2% of teams, because those are the guys still alive from the Sweet 16 on.
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Missed FTs, porous half court d, and poor 3pt shooting cost us vs the Zags. Blaming RJ's hero ball at the end is a cop out. If we hadn't pooped the bed during up till then, his poor decision making would not have mattered. The Zags will be better in March. Kansas is rounding into form. That is the top tier of teams this year. But there are another 4-5 that are pretty good, who play good D and conservative O, and that will not be any fun until we start hitting FTs.

 

[DeepColor]

With all that said this team might not even make the NIT. I'm beginning to worry and have become depressed. If Coach K can't fix it perhaps it is time for a coaching season right now. Anyone here know how to get this team where it needs to be. OFC
C

Recruiting was down a bit with this class. Not sure if that is fixable at this point.

 

[Showenuff]

I hear what you're saying Pat but how do you know the Zags will be better next time we meet them? Well, you don't. In fact, they haven't shot like they did against us, since they played us. Every team has that one night where everyone hits on all cylinders, I think that was their night. In fact, I bet uncheat beats them.

 

[Showenuff]

Case in point, us vs UK . Granted Kentucky isn't great by any means, but we annihilated them , because we had that night. We ripped the 3 ball, hell even Zion hit a couple. We popped and broke down everything in there, it was "that" night.

 

[nets on nets on nets]

It’s really easy. We shoot well from three and the FT line, we’re gonna beat the best teams by double digits.
We shoot like our numbers project, it will be a dog fight with us slightly favored.

Zone teams don’t scare me, we have destroyed whatever defense tries to zone us. Just throw it to Zion at the Ft line and watch out.
Yes, the pack-line and the “amoeba” stay within the paint defense does scare me.

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

I hear what you're saying Pat but how do you know the Zags will be better next time we meet them? Well, you don't. In fact, they haven't shot like they did against us, since they played us. Every team has that one night where everyone hits on all cylinders, I think that was their night. In fact, I bet uncheat beats them.

We ain’t looked the same since Kentucky either. We haven’t shot like we did. How ya know we will be better next time we see them? Ida shot like they did against us the way our defense looked that game. Gonzaga got their best player/shooter that didn’t play against us back yet?

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

Just picking. All I’m worried about thus far is our half court O and ball screen D....FT shooting I’m concerned. The UVA games gonna tell us a lot .

 

[SwatX1]

I hear what you're saying Pat but how do you know the Zags will be better next time we meet them? Well, you don't. In fact, they haven't shot like they did against us, since they played us. Every team has that one night where everyone hits on all cylinders, I think that was their night. In fact, I bet uncheat beats them.

UT just did

 

[chov1125]

IDGAF about beating the bottom 98% of college teams. That is a effing Given, or else.
.
I do worry about beating the top 2% of teams, because those are the guys still alive from the Sweet 16 on.
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Missed FTs, porous half court d, and poor 3pt shooting cost us vs the Zags. Blaming RJ's hero ball at the end is a cop out. If we hadn't pooped the bed during up till then, his poor decision making would not have mattered. The Zags will be better in March. Kansas is rounding into form. That is the top tier of teams this year. But there are another 4-5 that are pretty good, who play good D and conservative O, and that will not be any fun until we start hitting FTs.

So you dramatize our offensive woes (92.9 ppg) but minimize our defense (65.7 ppg)? We have dominated every game we have played this year, with the exception of 1. I understand what you are saying that the most important games of the year will be against the best of competition, but come on man, don’t be so miserable along the way. Enjoy this season without stressing so much about hypothetical matchups several months down the road. We’ve played 3 top 10 teams in 11 games, the competition is not as weak as you are claiming.

Our defense has been very very good, don’t minimize that. Yes, we got carved up against Gonzaga, but it was the third game in three days, with our guys logging heavy minutes. We are young and capable of improving, not just now, but throughout the year. We are already improving both in man to man situations and team defense. Sky’s response was hyperbole, but also spot on. Enjoy the ride, it’s not so doom and gloom.

And I’m sorry did you say Kansas is rounding into form? Duke is the team with all these issues but Kansas is rounding into form? The same team that scratched out the slightest of victories against Stanford and NM St. Yikes. We have dismantled all but 1 team, we are young, we appear hungry and we have the highest of ceilings of any team.

 

[chov1125]

And btw shooting, specifically free throws, is a concern of mine too. But I also am not going to lose perspective that we are still winning these games going away, against good competition and bad. I’m not at practices or in need of working on my free throws so I’ll add it as a concern but enjoy the product in front of me, it’s actually pretty entertaining.

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

So you dramatize our offensive woes (92.9 ppg) but minimize our defense (65.7 ppg)? We have dominated every game we have played this year, with the exception of 1. I understand what you are saying that the most important games of the year will be against the best of competition, but come on man, don’t be so miserable along the way. Enjoy this season without stressing so much about hypothetical matchups several months down the road. We’ve played 3 top 10 teams in 11 games, the competition is not as weak as you are claiming.

Our defense has been very very good, don’t minimize that. Yes, we got carved up against Gonzaga, but it was the third game in three days, with our guys logging heavy minutes. We are young and capable of improving, not just now, but throughout the year. We are already improving both in man to man situations and team defense. Sky’s response was hyperbole, but also spot on. Enjoy the ride, it’s not so doom and gloom.

And I’m sorry did you say Kansas is rounding into form? Duke is the team with all these issues but Kansas is rounding into form? The same team that scratched out the slightest of victories against Stanford and NM St. Yikes. We have dismantled all but 1 team, we are young, we appear hungry and we have the highest of ceilings of any team.

Thought the same thing when I read that about Kansas lol.

 

[Quavarius]

As of now, Duke is in the Top 5 in both offense & defense.

“I like my team!”

 

[dukehokie]

So you dramatize our offensive woes (92.9 ppg) but minimize our defense (65.7 ppg)? We have dominated every game we have played this year, with the exception of 1. I understand what you are saying that the most important games of the year will be against the best of competition, but come on man, don’t be so miserable along the way. Enjoy this season without stressing so much about hypothetical matchups several months down the road. We’ve played 3 top 10 teams in 11 games, the competition is not as weak as you are claiming.

Our defense has been very very good, don’t minimize that. Yes, we got carved up against Gonzaga, but it was the third game in three days, with our guys logging heavy minutes. We are young and capable of improving, not just now, but throughout the year. We are already improving both in man to man situations and team defense. Sky’s response was hyperbole, but also spot on. Enjoy the ride, it’s not so doom and gloom.

And I’m sorry did you say Kansas is rounding into form? Duke is the team with all these issues but Kansas is rounding into form? The same team that scratched out the slightest of victories against Stanford and NM St. Yikes. We have dismantled all but 1 team, we are young, we appear hungry and we have the highest of ceilings of any team.

This is one of those times I don’t feel @PatrickYates or anyone else is really “down” on the team. I think he’s expressing concern. I know in the past, I’ve been quick to jump on people expressing concern. Sometimes it was warranted. But in this situation, I think shooting woes are a cause for concern, but not “sky is falling type of concern.” This team isn’t perfect and can (and will) be beaten. The question is, how does Duke minimize the chances that they are beaten?

Being better shooters, hitting free throws, limiting opponents’ driving opportunities more often are all things they are capable of changing but also are all things that aren’t necessarily going to “kill” this team singularly.

 

[Showenuff]

And reply’s like that are why you’re a mod here .

 

[LongTimeDukeFan]

And to your point about pressure FT’s, against Gonzaga, in the last 8 minutes, Duke shot only 3 free throws. 1-2 from Javin and 0-1 from RJ. That’s it. So regardless of how well they’re shooting, the team needs to make a concerted effort to get to the line in late game situations. K tried that with RJ, but somehow one of the best foul producers in college couldn’t get a foul call in four straight attempts.

How much did we lose by to Gonzaga? And free throws are not important why? Don’t get it.

Blowing teams out by 20 or 30 and FT% is a laughable concern. Close game, high pressure — different matter. I think not being concerned about free throws is rather cavalier...and I don’t mean UVA.

 

[dukehokie]

How much did we lose by to Gonzaga? And free throws are not important why? Don’t get it.

Blowing teams out by 20 or 30 and FT% is a laughable concern. Close game, high pressure — different matter. I think not being concerned about free throws is rather cavalier...and I don’t mean UVA.

Because when a game is that close, there’s more problems than just one thing. You watched that game, we made Zach Norvell and Josh Perkins look like NBA All Stars. If we don’t let them get off in the first half the way we did, the free throws aren’t as much of an issue. Two more stops in the first half and we could say Duke wins by 2 or 3. True or false?

Not to mention we shot 20-26 from the line! It doesn’t get much better than that. They shot 11-19 or 59%. So you tell me how bad our free throw shooting really was that day.

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

When a games that close minimizing those problems increases our chances of winning though. Point is when a games close FTs are crucial. It hasn’t bit us yet, but there’s cause for concern.

 

[LongTimeDukeFan]

Because when a game is that close, there’s more problems than just one thing. You watched that game, we made Zach Norvell and Josh Perkins look like NBA All Stars. If we don’t let them get off in the first half the way we did, the free throws aren’t as much of an issue. Two more stops in the first half and we could say Duke wins by 2 or 3. True or false?

Not to mention we shot 20-26 from the line! It doesn’t get much better than that. They shot 11-19 or 59%. So you tell me how bad our free throw shooting really was that day.

Not disagreeing at all. In a close game there might be a bunch of factors going against you. Just improving one of those factors could win a game.

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

Not disagreeing at all. In a close game there might be a bunch of factors going against you. Just improving one of those factors could win a game.

Exactly what I was trying say

 

[chov1125]

I was actually fine with the original post (although a bit unfair on Tre), it was the responses that seemed too much.

The IDAF about beating 98% of college teams seems absolutely crazy to me. When did we become entitled to beating a Kentucky or Auburn? This team is special and we shouldn’t be taking that for granted. I think you miss a tremendous amount of the season, the highs, the lows, the in betweens, when having that kind of opinion.

I see the same games as everyone, I have the same concerns, I admitted as such. It just seemed too strong based on the fact we are winning games against good teams rather easily.

And I don’t agree that our defense is porous. We played an Army team earlier in the year and they got whatever they wanted, they just didn’t make nearly enough shots. Last night Yale couldn’t do simple things because of our presence. Yes the opponents will get bigger and quicker, but our defensive system seems to be getting quicker and more in sync.

This team will lose at least a couple games during conference play and shooting could be the prime reason why. But I GAF about all these games, it’s not likely we’ll ever see a team with this much natural talent ever again.

 

[Quavarius]

Because when a game is that close, there’s more problems than just one thing. You watched that game, we made Zach Norvell and Josh Perkins look like NBA All Stars. If we don’t let them get off in the first half the way we did, the free throws aren’t as much of an issue. Two more stops in the first half and we could say Duke wins by 2 or 3. True or false?

Not to mention we shot 20-26 from the line! It doesn’t get much better than that. They shot 11-19 or 59%. So you tell me how bad our free throw shooting really was that day.

Don’t forget Tre and Zion missed dunks. That’s 4 points. Those go in, we win by 2.

Le sigh

 

[lyonhawk]

Don’t forget Tre and Zion missed dunks. That’s 4 points. Those go in, we win by 2.

Le sigh

Which both led to run outs. Those 2 plays were a 9 point swing.

 

[skysdad]

If Gonzaga had missed two more shots we would have won. OFC

 

[dukehokie]

Not disagreeing at all. In a close game there might be a bunch of factors going against you. Just improving one of those factors could win a game.

I hear you. That is an absolutely true statement. Recognize your weaknesses and try to make them strengths. That’s always the goal.

 

[LongTimeDukeFan]

I hear you. That is an absolutely true statement. Recognize your weaknesses and try to make them strengths. That’s always the goal.

After @IPSYCHOSIS agreed with me made me question my whole reasoning....glad you saved me

 

[dukehokie]

After @IPSYCHOSIS agreed with me made me question my whole reasoning....glad you saved me

I couldn’t leave you out there by yourself like that. Haha. The Twilight Zone is a scary place.

 

[Shatterthesky22]

Going into this season, we knew this "might" be a problem. It is looming as a horrible problem. Cam has regressed after an insanely hot start. RJ has stepped up his perimeter shooting. White is fine, and AOC looks good, but neither of them really figure to take enough to move the meter. Tre isn't the perimeter shooter we'd hoped he'd be. And the three guys who figure to take the most FTs, RJ, Zion, and Tre (in that order), look shaky from the FT line. RJ and Zion are especially weak, and they might take more (and possibly far more) FTs than the rest of the team combined.
.
Vs good teams, this will be a huge problem. We'll still win most of our games, but we'll have real trouble vs the types of teams we will definitely face from the Elite 8 on.

We definitely need to work on it, though this squad has a defense that can carry us through cold stretches and already has multiple times. RJ is becoming more confident in his shot, now we just need Tre to step it up a bit and Cam to snap out of his slump and we’ll be fine.