Playoff Projections Post Week 3

[4Afan]

That’s a formula, my man.

It’s actually how I’m able to do the projected seedings in excel. Take the number wins a team has, multiply that by 100 and add opponent wins, then sort. It’s just a very simple formula that does a very poor job of ranking teams. The Massey ranking is also a (bit more complex) formula but has the benefit of much more accurately ranking the teams.

Why do you say Massey is the most accurate? In my example earlier Massey has Oswego as #8 overall in the state and MaxPreps has them at #42. So which algorithm is more accurate?

 

[4Afan]

That’s a formula, my man.

It’s actually how I’m able to do the projected seedings in excel. Take the number wins a team has, multiply that by 100 and add opponent wins, then sort. It’s just a very simple formula that does a very poor job of ranking teams. The Massey ranking is also a (bit more complex) formula but has the benefit of much more accurately ranking the teams.

Also my man, not a formula. You create one to better sort your spreadsheet. See below, per the IHSA opponents wins (playoff points) are a tie breaker, no formula needed. If playoff points are tied I believe the next tie breaker is total combined wins of all your defeated opponents. Even a simpleton such as myself can figure out the seeding with no math involved.

See also the note about CPL teams and who is eligible to get in and who isn't when predicting week 4.

 

[Alexander33]

Why do you say Massey is the most accurate? In my example earlier Massey has Oswego as #8 overall in the state and MaxPreps has them at #42. So which algorithm is more accurate?

Massey is the more accurate algorithm. I have tested the various computer ratings over the years in relation to past playoffs.

 

[Alexander33]

Also my man, not a formula. You create one to better sort your spreadsheet. See below, per the IHSA opponents wins (playoff points) are a tie breaker, no formula needed. If playoff points are tied I believe the next tie breaker is total combined wins of all your defeated opponents. Even a simpleton such as myself can figure out the seeding with no math involved.

See also the note about CPL teams and who is eligible to get in and who isn't when predicting week 4.

A simple formula is still a formula. 9 - 8 = 1. Therefore, a (9-0) team receives a better seed than an (8-1) team. 9 is a number. 8 is a number. 9 represents a larger quantity than 8. Any time a person uses numbers in a comparative sense, that person is using math.

 

[jha618]

My apologies, I should have added the sentence, in the current IHSA system 1-32 creates a true tournament. When classes are split north/south depending on the year and the class the north/south split has the potential to turn the first 2 rounds into a conference tournament for those larger, competitive conferences that get more than 3 teams in the same class.

Ok. Just so I’m understanding your points here…

An Ihsa tournament that seeds teams north and south can’t be considered a true tournament because of the competitive imbalance it creates.

And…

An ihsa tournament that seeds teams based on a really imperfect system that creates competitive imbalance in the brackets still can be a true tournament. And one that you actually prefer as it creates early round “big games”

Make it make sense.

 

[jha618]

You were the one who said "suffered the consequences of grossly mis-seeding." So how did they suffer the consequences without knowing the outcome of a game?

In the current system, the outcome of regular season games are relevant to the seeding.

Fine, use whatever seeding system you want, hypothetically MC ends up as the #1 seed and wins 7A in 2024. How is it different than the actual outcome?

Again with the hypothetical game outcome to prove or disprove seeding accuracy? What are you not getting? Yes, seeding is a result of what you accomplished in PREVIOUS games. Not what you would do, or what one expects you to do in future games.

The consequence is the matchups that are created and the potential stacking of the better teams in the same half of the bracket.