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Playoff Projections Post Week 3

wildkit_fan

wildkit_fan

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Updated with week 3 results and updated projected wins per Massey formulas. Note- I am not including the projected wins of out of state opponents (too much work to track that down), so if IHSA includes out of state opponent team wins (do they? and what if those teams play more than 9 games?), my tiebreakers/seedings might by off.

Also on topic of opponent wins, there are several CCL teams (Providence, Carmel, St. Francis, DePaul) who might find themselves on the playoff bubble. Could these teams miss playoffs because Loyola only plays 8 games, depriving them of an additional potential opponent win? That would be a tough pill to swallow.

Last 4 in: Knoxville Central, Genoa-Kingston, Schaumburg, Taft
First 4 out: Hillcrest, Sangamon Val, Newton, Hinsdale South

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4Afan

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wildkit_fan said:
Updated with week 3 results and updated projected wins per Massey formulas. Note- I am not including the projected wins of out of state opponents (too much work to track that down), so if IHSA includes out of state opponent team wins (do they? and what if those teams play more than 9 games?), my tiebreakers/seedings might by off.

Also on topic of opponent wins, there are several CCL teams (Providence, Carmel, St. Francis, DePaul) who might find themselves on the playoff bubble. Could these teams miss playoffs because Loyola only plays 8 games, depriving them of an additional potential opponent win? That would be a tough pill to swallow.

Last 4 in: Knoxville Central, Genoa-Kingston, Schaumburg, Taft
First 4 out: Hillcrest, Sangamon Val, Newton, Hinsdale South

View attachment 917156
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Yes, out of state opponents wins count towards playoff points but don't blame you for not wanting to track all that down. Great work again this week.
 
P

PowerI66

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jha618 said:
Pretty unfortunate matchups in the 2nd rd of 8a.
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There Can Be Only One Highlander GIF
 
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Btimpone22

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few dumber things in the world than the IHSA football seeding system by record, that basically lets dysfunctional CPS ruin the playoffs.
 
M

MC63

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MC could wind up playing LA twice in 3 weeks - although we'd be the home team
 
wildkit_fan

wildkit_fan

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Quags22 said:
That's a big "No" from me.
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The "No" is the coaches doing the seeding or that all teams are in the playoffs? The current system (both seedings and making the playoffs) is so highly dependent on scheduling that is surely results in teams making the playoffs who are far worse than teams that didn't make it & seeding that no one actually believes (e.g. Loyola as 16 seed in current projections).

Here is a compromise on both fronts... 48 teams make playoffs in each class (class determined before playoff selection) based on Massey power ranking. Those are divided into 4 geographically based sectionals. Seeds within sectional again by Massey power ranking. Here would be an example in 8A (I think this looks more interesting than the one ☝️).
1758121615703.png
 
wildkit_fan

wildkit_fan

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Silver Rain said:
I just found out that a Wildkit is an abbreviated Wildcat. Go Kits!
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Don't get me started... I don't like the mascot, it's not a real thing. I like mascots that are representative of the area of the team. Therefore, given how frequently they can be seen locally, I'd like to rename us the Evanston Skunks, with black and white as our colors. Kidding, not kidding.
 
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4Afan

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wildkit_fan said:
The "No" is the coaches doing the seeding or that all teams are in the playoffs? The current system (both seedings and making the playoffs) is so highly dependent on scheduling that is surely results in teams making the playoffs who are far worse than teams that didn't make it & seeding that no one actually believes (e.g. Loyola as 16 seed in current projections).

Here is a compromise on both fronts... 48 teams make playoffs in each class (class determined before playoff selection) based on Massey power ranking. Those are divided into 4 geographically based sectionals. Seeds within sectional again by Massey power ranking. Here would be an example in 8A (I think this looks more interesting than the one ☝️).
View attachment 918222
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So in other words, tell the CPL schools to kick rocks and they don't deserve to be in the playoffs?

Also, they tried geographical quads years ago and once you get below 7A it's terrible.
 
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wildkit_fan

wildkit_fan

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4Afan said:
So in other words, tell the CPL schools to kick rocks and they don't deserve to be in the playoffs?

Also, they tried geographical quads years ago and once you get below 7A it's terrible.
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Well, I 1st said I wanted all teams in the playoffs... I didn't know the other poster's objections, so this was a "compromise"... an expanded playoff.

Someone needs to "kick rocks" in any system where some teams don't make the playoffs. There was no intent to be punitive to CPL (auto-births for conference winner could ameliorate this). The problem (in my mind) I was trying to address is the idea that by virtue of schedules, some teams can get to 5/6 wins without really beating anybody, while other teams could be pretty good but play a murders row and struggle to get 3/4 wins. Again, my preference is to have all teams in the playoffs.

I also have the personal scars from not making the playoffs in hs at 5-4, with 3 of those losses being to 3 top 10 teams in the state :cry::ROFLMAO:
 
cigaros

cigaros

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The quad system was horrible. And frankly the North South brackets are about 1% less horrible. Seeding 1-32 is the proper way to do this. And frankly, I'd love to see the matchups adjust as the playoffs go. The top seeds should always play the lower seeds. And let's not go down the road of travel. East St. Louis travelled to play Bergen in New Jersey, Gorman in Nevada, and will travel to Florida to play IMG. Althoff Catholic can travel to Richmond Burton in their 1st round game and not complain about it. And vice versa.
 
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cigaros

cigaros

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Anyone have an idea when the Outlook is supposed to be released? Usually it was week 3 on Tuesday.
 
4

4Afan

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wildkit_fan said:
Well, I 1st said I wanted all teams in the playoffs... I didn't know the other poster's objections, so this was a "compromise"... an expanded playoff.

Someone needs to "kick rocks" in any system where some teams don't make the playoffs. There was no intent to be punitive to CPL (auto-births for conference winner could ameliorate this). The problem (in my mind) I was trying to address is the idea that by virtue of schedules, some teams can get to 5/6 wins without really beating anybody, while other teams could be pretty good but play a murders row and struggle to get 3/4 wins. Again, my preference is to have all teams in the playoffs.

I also have the personal scars from not making the playoffs in hs at 5-4, with 3 of those losses being to 3 top 10 teams in the state :cry::ROFLMAO:
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If you put all teams in the playoffs then you either need to extend the season a week into December or go to an 8 game schedule. Putting all teams in the playoffs also generates first round matchups like MC vs. a team like Stagg or East Aurora.

The IHSA playoffs system isn't perfect, but it's as transparent as you can get. Get 5 wins and enough playoff points and you're in. No subjectivity of coaches trying to seed teams they know nothing about. While it can lead to some ugly first round games and maybe some marquee matchups happening before we'd like to see them you still have to beat those teams eventually. It's been proven that if you play a tough regular season schedule you can still have playoff success.

The only change I want to see is seeding all classes 1-32 so we can get a true champion in all classes and not North vs. South in all classes below 7A.
 
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wildkit_fan

wildkit_fan

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4Afan said:
If you put all teams in the playoffs then you either need to extend the season a week into December or go to an 8 game schedule. Putting all teams in the
playoffs also generates first round matchups like MC vs. a team like Stagg or East Aurora.
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  • My impression is that scheduling non-conference games is very difficult for a lot of schools, so an 8 game schedule seems fine.
  • Teams could always opt out of the playoffs if they thought there was a safety issue or didn't want to get walloped too badly.
  • Part of my thinking in the "compromise" proposal of 48 team field selected and seeded by ranking, was to limit the 1st round bloodbaths. I think the top 8A teams will roll any team they face in the IHSA system or my proposal, but in general my proposal would perform better on this front.
 
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wildkit_fan

wildkit_fan

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wesbreton said:
Hinsdale Central and GBW in 7A?
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Unless my enrollment numbers are incorrect, I have the smallest school (other than Mt Carmel) in 8A as Marist with 2,487. Largest school in 7A is Belleville East at 2,466. Hinsdale Central 2,440 & GBW 2,342.
 
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Roamin' Catholic

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cigaros said:
The quad system was horrible. And frankly the North South brackets are about 1% less horrible. Seeding 1-32 is the proper way to do this. And frankly, I'd love to see the matchups adjust as the playoffs go. The top seeds should always play the lower seeds. And let's not go down the road of travel. East St. Louis travelled to play Bergen in New Jersey, Gorman in Nevada, and will travel to Florida to play IMG. Althoff Catholic can travel to Richmond Burton in their 1st round game and not complain about it. And vice versa.
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I think the stink about travel, at least from my view, has always come from deep south programs and inner city programs. Which, generally speaking, are the less funded pieces of the equation. But, if it means something to you (the football player/team/fan/parent), the travel should never be a burden.

I've also been open to, in the past, versions similar to this that just involve neutral sites for teams that exceed whatever limit we set for max travel time for true home games vs neutral sites.
 
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Quags22

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wildkit_fan said:
The "No" is the coaches doing the seeding or that all teams are in the playoffs? The current system (both seedings and making the playoffs) is so highly dependent on scheduling that is surely results in teams making the playoffs who are far worse than teams that didn't make it & seeding that no one actually believes (e.g. Loyola as 16 seed in current projections).

Here is a compromise on both fronts... 48 teams make playoffs in each class (class determined before playoff selection) based on Massey power ranking. Those are divided into 4 geographically based sectionals. Seeds within sectional again by Massey power ranking. Here would be an example in 8A (I think this looks more interesting than the one ☝️).
View attachment 918222
Click to expand...
I'm not in favor of either scenario. I have seen how coaches vote in other sports. We would be all better off if the Edgy Tim crew would vote.

As far as all the teams making the playoffs...do I really want to watch more first round blowouts? I already see enough blowouts. Earn your way in.

And another "No" to an 8-game schedule. The only way that happens if you expand the playoffs. Not interested in that for the reasons above.
 
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wildkit_fan

wildkit_fan

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Quags22 said:
I'm not in favor of either scenario. I have seen how coaches vote in other sports. We would be all better off if the Edgy Tim crew would vote.
OK by me to have EdgyTim do it, but there's no way coaches vote isn't better than the current system. Last year Loyola was a 12 seed in 8A & MC a 19 seed in 7A 🤪. What will ESL's seed be this year? I doubt any basketball seedings are off by more than a few spots.
As far as all the teams making the playoffs...do I really want to watch more first round blowouts? I already see enough blowouts. Earn your way in.
"Earn your way in" can involve playing in a very weak conference or having your AD schedule non-conference cupcakes. It will not be hard to find teams that "earned" their way in that would get running clocked by teams that don't make the playoffs based on their respective schedules. If college football followed an IHSA-like system, last year Army would have been in the playoffs & Liberty would have made it in 2023. So, my opinion is that either all the teams make it, or you do something so that teams playing in tough conferences or tough non-conference schedules are not penalized. Those kids have playoff dreams too.
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4Afan

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Wilmatucky1 said:
You're right. But your post said 5 wins and enough playoff points. Now it's 5 is a lock and 4 with the necessary points.
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You make it seem like teams with 4 wins and a good amount of playoff points are safely in. It all depends on how many teams with 5 or more wins there are. Kenwood was the lone 4 win team to get in last year. Technically you don't officially clinch unless you have 6 wins. There is a possibility that 5 win teams can get left out.
 
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cigaros

cigaros

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Roamin' Catholic said:
I think the stink about travel, at least from my view, has always come from deep south programs and inner city programs. Which, generally speaking, are the less funded pieces of the equation. But, if it means something to you (the football player/team/fan/parent), the travel should never be a burden.

I've also been open to, in the past, versions similar to this that just involve neutral sites for teams that exceed whatever limit we set for max travel time for true home games vs neutral sites.
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I don't forgive any program for not travelling well. How many times, Tik Toks, Facebook posts, IG content pieces do we see in which a parent states they "would do ANYTHING for their child....I would take a bullet for my kid....." Well, get in your Town & Country, grab some travel treats, fill up the tank, punch the destination into GPS and go! Hockey parents do this for years until the last horn sounds.
 
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AlabamaTimberwolf

AlabamaTimberwolf

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4Afan said:
4 wins doesn't guarantee a team a spot.
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And shouldn't guarantee a playoff spot. Some people believe that 3-6 teams should be allowed! Thats crazy talk but the total insanity are the people who speak of allowing EVERY team into the playoffs. I think the "entitlement" era is over and the participation trophy has been destroyed!
 
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jha618

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AlabamaTimberwolf said:
And shouldn't guarantee a playoff spot. Some people believe that 3-6 teams should be allowed! Thats crazy talk but the total insanity are the people who speak of allowing EVERY team into the playoffs. I think the "entitlement" era is over and the participation trophy has been destroyed!
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Its really not that crazy. Everyone makes the playoffs in bball and baseball. I know in MO everyone makes the playoffs in football. Even in college, teams are guaranteed post-season games regardless of record.
 
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