Maybe be won't he have some potential legal charges to face and honestly he isn't going to be alive much longer either. This Presidency which he obviously did not think or really want to win might be the worst thing that could have happened to him and his family.
OT: stock market
- Thread starter BeautifulDayintheNeighborhood
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Yeah, “that guy” is all alone “with how that works.” No other politicians do anything like that. Grow the F up jack wagon.
Exactly, regardless of the economy and stack market, it was time someone had the balls to stand up to China. They need to play like the rest of the world, and now.
The feds don't care about the stock market and they're undeterred in their tightening effort. Can you say dated and useless
I think to build his own brand is accurate though. I think his actual wealth has been greatly exaggerated
Are you shitting me? Ceding the Middle East to Russia and basically kissing Putin's *** to me is a sure sign of his post-Presidential economic agenda. Why not? Russia is like an unregulated playground for Trump.
And as far as interest rates are concerned, the markets have already voted that the interest rate cycle is over. Powell is behind the curve, and any additional hikes are detrimental, which is why the stock market is still tanking, IMO. Plus Trump has shut down the government for a wall (stupid) and every adult in his cabinet has resigned. The guy Mnuchin (sp?) is a joke, after Cohn left, the inmates are running the asylum.
I'm hoping for the best but that means Trump grows-up quick and China falls in-line. It could still get worse from here, I certainly don't think we are out of the woods with that Scumbag/Infant in the White House. Just so we're clear what I think of that guy. He has some good ideas, but he's straight-up rich Redneck trash from New York, IMO.
Yea, let's get rid of the Central Bank, we can go back to the gold standard, and use bitcoin to buy toilet paper.
While we're at it, let's kick out all the illegal immigrants, get rid of all public assistance, and nominate David Duke for a new cabinet post, Chief of Redneck Nation.
The Fed is crushing the market by reducing their balance sheet which withdraws liquidity from the market. This is after 9 years of increasing their balance sheet. Watch what the Fed does to their balance sheet and you will know where the market is headed.
And there's no possibility that the Deep State is behind the collapse as a last ditch effort to undermine Trumpy as all other attempts to pull him from office have failed? Makes more sense than all that other nonsense yah'll just spewed out!
The Storm is Upon Us.
Q sent me
The Storm is Upon Us.
Q sent me
The truth hurts? No fake news?
News flash, the interest rate hikes aren't over, there will be more in 2019. And Pulling out of Syria is hardly ceding the middle east to Russia, Putin doesn't have the brains to do much of anything, Russia is nothing more than a wolf trying to blow down a brick house, China has far surpassed them but even China knows that tariff battles are a lose-lose game for them.
Government shutdown is nothing more than a blip, but neither democrats or most of the republicans in the house and senate care about the border, like you, they want people crossing over here anytime, any day, no matter what it costs citizens. And it's funny to see someone from Florida call someone else a redneck, takes one to know one and you fit the bill perfectly. Hilarious.
Agree to a certain extent, which is why a lot of smart macro traders think this market is phooked. I think the Fed can reduce liquidity (balance sheet) and maintain a neutral stance here. I think that is imperative.
Look at oil, commodities, overseas PMIs, the Fed needs to get to neutral in a hurry. And the next move is down.
Here he is...let's get it on!
10-year 2.74%, rates aren't going any higher, that would mean the Fed is raising into an inverted yield curve? Do some homework genius, not gonna happen, but does't surprise me coming from a Trump backer (ie no facts just pure conjecture and reaction to his Twitter).
Russa wolf blowing down a brick house? Putin not the richest man in the world? Us leaving Syria doesn't create a vacuum for him to do whatever he wants, there and in his border states? Read about Matthis and his views on the Middle East. Very smart and stable military mind. Resigned? Cohn, Tillerson, the "Axis of Adults" are all gone. I mean, how do you spin Matthis leaving as retirement? Dude has no integrity.
http://fortune.com/2018/12/20/trump-mattis-letter-resignation/
Trump is a moron, and a liar, but he knows how to make $$$ and it sure looks to me like he's linking up with Russia for a post-Presidential $$$ haul...
https://www.ft.com/trumptoronto
I agree with you on tougher border policies, but that shouldn't be tied inextricably to a wall. A true politician would know this. Building a wall appeals to Trump's construction blood like a drug addict. He has no political ability and no willingness to "cross the aisle." This could lead to a protracted shutdown and that will bring down the American economy unless he sorts it out in a hurry. It's just dumb, to shut down gov worker paychecks for a stupid wall. Makes no sense.
I'll stop there. Personal attack on me are useless, just try and deal with the above.
The only thing good about Trump has been tax cuts, and he's starting to make George Bush Jr. (who also cut taxes) look like a measured, inclusive political genius in hindsight.
The flip side is seeing your 60% (probably more) asset base of retirement money in indexes go down 30-50%. That's not gambling?
Passive investment strategies are not the panacea you think they are, they have worked recently, but overlaying an "active" hedging strategy or being open to some asset re-allocation doesn't mean you are anti-American. Just smart.
Oh oh oh wait, let's quote Warren Buffett and put our trust in "the system" and all will be well!
Lol! Nobody pumps their book harder than Warren. ****, he sells long-dated options (puts) when the market tanks. The guy is long-only all the time. And he has enough money not to care. His race is over, speaking to his age and outlook. What does he care, his company will be here forever. Your retirement may not be, if forced to withdraw in the next 5 years, down 50% in equities.
Wake up.
Could very well be. That's why I think this last one was over the top. Should have been a hold and wait and see. Crude down. Commodities down. I don't see much inflation.
Personally it's been bad. My fixed cost inputs with the exception of fuel are up. Repairs, replacements of iron, fertilizer, chemicals, seed, interest, are all higher. Selling prices are lower. 2018 wasn't good and 2019 not looking much better.
We'll see.
Scary to see the Chinese basically trying to divert/avoid the supply of US soy. I think they believe if Iowa/MN/Wisconsin and other moderate/independent states turn on Trump, he's history in 2020. Problem is, the Dems couldn't find a descent blue candidate if you paid them $10 billion dollars. That party is fractured and Progressivism is radical and not a working capitalist program.
Not good.
Maybe there is a "real" Independent out there who can rectify things? I hope so.
In the meantime, the economy rolls on DESPITE all this nonsense. Real shame if we blow it.
Some economists, like Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, think the Fed will raise short-term interest rates four times in 2019, bringing the benchmark fed funds rate to 3.25-3.5%. All you are doing, like anyone else, is speculating that it won't happen.
Yes, Russia is a wolf trying to blow down a brick house, Putin not the richest man in the world (the money he stole is again, speculation on the amount) and not too bright either, military minds are wrong as much as they are right, look at Colin Powell. Men like Matthis are what get our country into situations it doesn't need to be or belong in, and Trump ISN'T a politician, he constantly defies the typical life long Washington dolts and actually makes them uneasy and always on the attack, otherwise it would be the same old thing from career hacks that do nothing most days but banter back and forth with each other. A government shutdown would have to draw out for months before it would destroy the economy, but that's not going to happen. Like the last time, it didn't do much of anything, and for the short time now, it won't either.
Yes, Russia is a wolf trying to blow down a brick house, Putin not the richest man in the world (the money he stole is again, speculation on the amount) and not too bright either, military minds are wrong as much as they are right, look at Colin Powell. Men like Matthis are what get our country into situations it doesn't need to be or belong in, and Trump ISN'T a politician, he constantly defies the typical life long Washington dolts and actually makes them uneasy and always on the attack, otherwise it would be the same old thing from career hacks that do nothing most days but banter back and forth with each other. A government shutdown would have to draw out for months before it would destroy the economy, but that's not going to happen. Like the last time, it didn't do much of anything, and for the short time now, it won't either.
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Tag your first paragraph, I'll be back when the Fed cuts rates, I'm guessing late 2020. If sooner, well, that would be real bad (ie Recession in 2019/2020).
Also, the Fed themselves just said "2 more hikes," then retracted that statement last Monday. You do realize this don't you, or are you just trying to find someone that opposes my view and make them look like an expert, when the Fed (and more importantly the actual bond market) has clearly said otherwise?
You do understand what an "inverted yield curve" means right? Do a little research, try not to argue just for the sake of arguing, it could serve you well in the future.
Jerome Powell says that rate hikes will be more data dependent, so the marketeers believe that is a softening tone, something that will neither boost or slow economic growth, but I wouldn't count out the Fed raising rates a few times, hopefully not. A retraction just calms the nervousness for now, doesn't mean it won't happen.
Yes, I fully know about inverted yield curve, towards maturity, towards the economy, towards bond demand, long term debt vs short term debt, and being a predictor of a recession. The Fed noted that head winds are rising, lowered its 2019 growth forecast from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent and indicated it is likely to do only two interest-rate hikes in 2019, down from its earlier forecasts of three increases, as was reported on the 19th of December, raising them at all in 2019 would be foolish, in my opinion, but again, I don't count it out.
Yes, I fully know about inverted yield curve, towards maturity, towards the economy, towards bond demand, long term debt vs short term debt, and being a predictor of a recession. The Fed noted that head winds are rising, lowered its 2019 growth forecast from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent and indicated it is likely to do only two interest-rate hikes in 2019, down from its earlier forecasts of three increases, as was reported on the 19th of December, raising them at all in 2019 would be foolish, in my opinion, but again, I don't count it out.
Keeping it perspective the Dow on Sept 5 2017 is about where we are at the present...
wow. Some of the most lucid economic posts I've ever seen posted on this board are from....SoFLHusker. The problem is for someobody with a 5 year timeline to retirement AND yet a life expectancy of say another 20 years, what do you do? It is a conundrum not easily answered.
Powell was handed an impossible position. To be honest, so was Trump (i hate the guy, but this is NOT his fault and he will probably be blamed for it because the moron couldn't keep his mouth shut).
The issues here are decades in the making. It's literally 40 years of debt growth (1982-today) along with a lot of monetary issues (whether or not you agree with it, nixon removing us from the gold standard is a great experiment that people 200 years from now will argue for or against... and everyday people have no idea. There is no education on these topics virtually at all unless you self-educate). Economists and businessmen/women literally have no clue what to do because THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.
Basically, every time we've had a downturn in recent memory is we've put NOS into the engine (lowered rates, printed several trillion in debt in 2008, etc.). As most gearheads know, unless the engine is built for it, NOS will eat it apart. It's highly corrosive.
But it does give you a kick in the ***... short term. If you want to know what the last 7 or 8 years was? That's it, in a nutshell. A 'short term' kick in the *** that would have allowed us to get out of a depression if our leadership was competent and not corrupt. Instead what did we do? Create a huge entitlement and stifle business growth and kick the can.
People still have no idea just how screwed up we are. Oh you hear people "our government spends too much" or how much the little people are struggling, but nobody wants to deal with the inherent reasons why because we'd have a 1929 on our hands (we nearly did in 2008 anyway).
Problem : kids aren't educated about our monetary system and big picture economics. Even business school barely hits big picture things like this... it's much more concentrated on how to axe costs than anything.
The issues here are decades in the making. It's literally 40 years of debt growth (1982-today) along with a lot of monetary issues (whether or not you agree with it, nixon removing us from the gold standard is a great experiment that people 200 years from now will argue for or against... and everyday people have no idea. There is no education on these topics virtually at all unless you self-educate). Economists and businessmen/women literally have no clue what to do because THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.
Basically, every time we've had a downturn in recent memory is we've put NOS into the engine (lowered rates, printed several trillion in debt in 2008, etc.). As most gearheads know, unless the engine is built for it, NOS will eat it apart. It's highly corrosive.
But it does give you a kick in the ***... short term. If you want to know what the last 7 or 8 years was? That's it, in a nutshell. A 'short term' kick in the *** that would have allowed us to get out of a depression if our leadership was competent and not corrupt. Instead what did we do? Create a huge entitlement and stifle business growth and kick the can.
People still have no idea just how screwed up we are. Oh you hear people "our government spends too much" or how much the little people are struggling, but nobody wants to deal with the inherent reasons why because we'd have a 1929 on our hands (we nearly did in 2008 anyway).
Problem : kids aren't educated about our monetary system and big picture economics. Even business school barely hits big picture things like this... it's much more concentrated on how to axe costs than anything.
@GretnaShawn you're pretty knowledgeable on this topic. What's your take?
One of the few good things about getting old is you learn that every eight years someone gets elected President you hate and the next 8 years there is someone you like. If it is someone you like, you, and people like you get complacent and before you know it, someone you hate is in there. Then they get complacent/cocky and they lose. There is really no point in throwing a tantrum and fearing the world will end when your guy loses. The world doesn't end, so all the anger is wasted effort that could be spent on more productive pursuits. The problem now (on both sides) in my opinion is there is no competition for our youngsters growing up. No winners and losers. Society is conditioned that if you don't win at least a participation trophy, you are going to hold your breath until you turn blue and maybe you will get your way (instead of working harder to win next time). What we are seeing in the media and blogs against this President is Exhibit A.
Oh, and BTW, the other thing you learn when you get old is the stock market goes up and it goes down. Every time you think you are smart enough to time it, something about your carefully devised plan is wrong and you take a bath. Stocks are a long term investment.
Merry Christmas
Oh, and BTW, the other thing you learn when you get old is the stock market goes up and it goes down. Every time you think you are smart enough to time it, something about your carefully devised plan is wrong and you take a bath. Stocks are a long term investment.
Merry Christmas
Both Obama and Trump try to take credit when the economy is doing well and then blame the other side when things aren't going well.
It's dishonest to say that only Trump does this.
Funny thing is, stocks might actually be ok in 2019. Why? Brexit. And other euro issues.
Big maybe there, but who knows.
Money from Europe might rush here because there's literally nowhere else to go.
Bubbles go on so much longer than people think and some logic is relative. It's also entirely possible they buy us debt which would kill our economy and the stock market. To me, that's what the bond market is saying as of this moment. If that's the case, neither lower rates nor higher rates will be the right move because we're dealing with outside issues. But they'll lower rates for world growth etc. Throw in all the overseas money and boom! higher markets.
*shrugs* The long term issues are still there though. And if the markets go back up, it'll just lead to a worse crash later.
There's just too many variables to know whether things go up or down from here. but there's too much debt for things to stay up if they go up again.
Big maybe there, but who knows.
Money from Europe might rush here because there's literally nowhere else to go.
Bubbles go on so much longer than people think and some logic is relative. It's also entirely possible they buy us debt which would kill our economy and the stock market. To me, that's what the bond market is saying as of this moment. If that's the case, neither lower rates nor higher rates will be the right move because we're dealing with outside issues. But they'll lower rates for world growth etc. Throw in all the overseas money and boom! higher markets.
*shrugs* The long term issues are still there though. And if the markets go back up, it'll just lead to a worse crash later.
There's just too many variables to know whether things go up or down from here. but there's too much debt for things to stay up if they go up again.
Yep that's why i think it'll go up at least for a while this year.
Brexit money flowing our way... but then what?
Search out defined benefit plans and employers who offer them. Don't spend your entire careers building 401K's as your planned primary wealth contributors in retirement to only be whip sawed by volatile markets once you finally reach retirement age. Look for other valid options.
I do believe if DJT would stop tweeting. 100% cold stop. Not one tweet. Things would settle down. Every time he says something like energy is a tax or interest rates are too high, etc. it creates confusion and therefore risk aversion. It blows up in his face an awful lot.
So everyone should gravitate towards a shrinking number of employers who offer defined benefit plans?
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