OT: stock market
- Thread starter BeautifulDayintheNeighborhood
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Of course anyone invested in 401K or has a pension is effected..
Stay the course and don’t sell uness to off set your tax’s..
Stay the course and don’t sell uness to off set your tax’s..
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Learned a long time ago that the "market" is a house of cards. Had a series 7 securities license many moons ago. Learned what I wanted to learn at the time and quit that biz after a couple of years. The ridiculous run up we've had virtually dictates that we are due for a ridiculous correction. We switched a good share of our portfolio to cash equivalents a while back. Maybe not enough because we've got a ways to go down yet IMO. A 50% retracement from the February 2009 low when this bull market started would take us back down to a DJIA of about 17000. That level would put us at about the trend line before the crazy take off we've had this past year or more. I don't know if it would go that low but it wouldn't surprise me. There's probably going to be more pain before there's more gain.
It took about 2 1/2 months to drop roughly 5200 points. It will take a while longer than 2-1/2 months to gain it back, but if you're in for the greater haul, this too shall pass. I expect the market to continue falling through the first quarter of 2019.
As the market continues to slide, buy as much as you can stomach, when it comes back up, it will float your current shares/funds back to the level of October, and then raise it even further with the bargains you're picking up.
As the market continues to slide, buy as much as you can stomach, when it comes back up, it will float your current shares/funds back to the level of October, and then raise it even further with the bargains you're picking up.
About 6 months ago I moved most of my retirement funds to IRA qualified CD’s. My financial planner pretty much thought it was a bad decision.
Nothing wrong with that, you saved a lot of principal and put it in cd's that are probably doing ok. I have a five year window to stay in, but I might get out before then and go a similar course.
House of cards is nice way of putting it.
Until we as a country eliminate household and business debt they have to print every time it collapses. And it will keep collapsing. And note I'm not talking national debt. The problem is the whole ball of wax.
We have a worse debt ratio than 1929. Build whatever system you want to stop it, that debt vortex will take it down eventually.
The only question is how long and how much they print and "repay" in the meantime. It could be decades.
At this point, it's buy into growth when the fed prints and buy gold/have cash when it goes crunch.... until total american debt is resolved in some way shape or form anyway.
The media wants to blame trump or Obama or whoever is their demon du jour depending on the channel.
Anyone younger than 40 blames a generation. And they're probably right.
Until we as a country eliminate household and business debt they have to print every time it collapses. And it will keep collapsing. And note I'm not talking national debt. The problem is the whole ball of wax.
We have a worse debt ratio than 1929. Build whatever system you want to stop it, that debt vortex will take it down eventually.
The only question is how long and how much they print and "repay" in the meantime. It could be decades.
At this point, it's buy into growth when the fed prints and buy gold/have cash when it goes crunch.... until total american debt is resolved in some way shape or form anyway.
The media wants to blame trump or Obama or whoever is their demon du jour depending on the channel.
Anyone younger than 40 blames a generation. And they're probably right.
Yeah the Chicago board of trade was down on corn and soybeans
Well one of those guys used to use the Dow numbers like they were approval polls and brag about them and take all the credit constantly. Haven’t seen him take one bit of blame now that it’s tanking. Weird how that works with that guy.
The market always fluctuates. No one can consistently predict when or how much. If you are always just waiting for a correction, you will eventually be right, but that doesn’t make you a prognosticator of the market, although many like to claim it. Just stay the course.
The banks have failed far more times than companies. Only 2 things can destroy the market in the long haul, losing a war or becoming a socialist nation.
Somewhat, but China was sinking a bit and world markets based upon typical things aren't helping. But I think you know how it works. The tariff thing doesn't bother me, it's about time someone stood up for this country, Obama sure didn't, maybe because he was such an intellectual lightweight when it came to business and economics is why he could have cared less.
There's nothing really weird about it if you understand that he's a textbook case of Narcissistic Personality Disorder.
I’m loving it! This correction/crash is going to create some great buying opportunities in the near future.
Not until the debt is cleared they won't. Until that happens it's all a sham. Sure you can make money gambling but sooner or later it will crush you because there's so much toxic crap in the system right now it's just nasty.
2001
2005
2008
2018/19
It keeps getting exponentially worse and volatile. It'll stop when they stop pumping more heroin (debt) into a corpse.
There just needs to be a fix of social security and/or Medicare/Medicaid and the debt would drastically improve. Why not just start phasing out social security. Let me take care of my own retirement plans, which I do anyway. I’m not expecting to receive much if any social security benefit.
Have the attorney general sue the biggest hospitals in the country for racketeering/price fixing. It'll cause an instant depression and bankrupt a few hospitals (theyll stay open with other owners or declare a national emergency and keep them open in the short term until you get buyers) until they clear out bureaucracy but itll also cut Medicare and other government costs instantly and as a byproduct balance the federal budget.
Everyone wins except corrupt hospitals and insurance.
Ask the Japanese that same question when the Nikkei hit 30k in the 1980s.
Long-only boiler plate nonsense. Stay the course! Lol!
I'm not saying you are wrong, but give us a trade. Make a call. Have a view. Anybody can throw up a Warren Buffett quote and buy the S&P 500. That adds no value other than just being another long-only lemming, praying your retirement money doesn't evaporate. Keep praying.
My view is to stick with the market. Diversify with index funds, ETFs etc... I’d like to see proof of anyone consistently beating the market. I hear this BS from people all the time with no evidence. Show me and I’ll invest. I just want to make money and if you or anyone else can do it, great, but statements like yours just never produce.
Tariffs help if they get China to clean-up their act in short-order (open markets). In the near-term there are zero benefits. Whatever the Treasury has collected, they have paid out to farmers, and a lot of US companies sending goods from China to the US are suffering.
But if China moves toward Trump's goals, it could be a nice policy move, IMO. That assumes they also resume their trade habits, for example, buying a **** ton of Ag from the US.
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Produce what?
I could show you a PE trade (example) that netted the FO I work for about $50mil, or the sale of their core family biz that netted $800mil, but I won't bore you.
I would actually buy this dip, I think it's an over-reaction, but when the **** hits the fan, you will be annihilated.
My recommendation to you is the following...buy vol (puts) when it all comes crashing down, if you stick to a long-only strategy, just think about hedging from time to time. Some people are wealthy enough to diversify their risk away, most aren't.
This is another interesting trade that made (in hindsight) a lot of sense...treasury bills, around 2.5%. I mean, the S&P 500 yield is around that level, right? Better than cash, no risk, whomever hit that trade with a re-allocation out of rich stock valuations is pretty much the **** to me right now.
That is a great call.
That is a great call.
Buy vol means buy volatility for those who don't speak wall street.
I agree. For the foreseeable future anyway.
Look, maybe you’re right, but I’ve done quite well over the last six years with the boring old John Bogle strategy. I have friends that day trade or get into options, option premiums, forex among others. They hit homeruns, but never discuss their losses. When I ask about their long term gains, things get fuzzy.
To me, it has nothing to do with them. It's called "risk management."
Buying puts is a simple hedge, pegged to the S&P, they go up when the market goes down. Not a complex strategy. A lot of smart people like to sell vol (calls) against existing positions, that can help raise money to buy puts, but it does limit upside. Just a thought, instead of watching your indexes go down 30-50% and staying in the fetal position while it happens.
Yea but the 10-year is down from 3.2%ish to 2.75%ish and the odds are this interest rate tightening cycle is over. I would argue the next move is down in rates.
Iowa sucks
My honest opinion is Trump is getting close to the richest man in the world, Vlad Putin, for some serious money-making opportunities post Presidency. Smart economics. He knows how to make $$$
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