TSMC went BOOM:
TSMC profit surges 39% to beat estimates and hit yet another record on AI chip demand
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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TSMC profit surges 39% to beat estimates and hit yet another record on AI chip demand
I'm quickly up 17% on my NKE leaps and 13% on CMG. But don't ask about my SLB calls! LOL.
Whatever it is called, it's been a great leading indicator for the following AI/tech earnings season!
By the way, CRM is dirt cheap now. Started buying RKT.
ADBE even moreso at 20x p/e. They talked about both the other day on WAYT. Brown liked ADBE, but not CRM, even though their charts (and negative narrative) are very similar.
CRM is popping in premarket.
JB also said to close your eyes and buy NKE! LOL. That brand is going nowhere. The new CEO seems competent.
WAYT was great this week, lots of ideas. ADBE is back on my watchlist.
By the way, check out JC and friends morning livestreams. Very good content and fun chat.
I gave it a shot once, but it didn't hit. I need to give it another shot as sometimes I'm looking for market content pre Halftime report.
"Mostly heavily shorted stocks are doing the best"
The boys mocking the "smart money" shorting stocks in a bull market.
I guess sentiment is holding the stock back.....but that can change on a dime. Probably a good play.
I think they start at 8:30am'ish, but with chit-chat and other random stuff. I normally tune in around 9am for the last 30 mins of the pre-market. This has been pretty good for the past few weeks. Solid charts and stock discussion.
And it's important to point out, these guys are more traders than investors. Obviously big on technicals. A nice different POV vs. Josh Brown and his crew.
XBI.
LABU = 3x XBI (which is a biotech ETF that leans to the smaller caps vs. the IBB)
XBI chart looks amazing. Up 50% off April lows. Breaking out past a resistance level($100) set back in 2018 and failed at in July of 2024. Currently at $110.
It did set ath's in the covid run at $150. So that is maybe the next stop.
Very possible. Small-cap biotech has been wrecked since 2022 and the rate hiking. Why? Clinical stage companies (i.e., pre-revenue) are solely dependent on financing. This is my business/career.
Check out PRME. I bought around $3, increase big time at $1.5, and now it ripped to $6.
Amazing tech - prime editing gene therapy. It can truly revolutionize the space. However, it's still very, very early. Prime's lead product is only in Phase 1. They have plenty of money and partnerships, but it's a long way to go until FDA approval and commercial success.
This is for patient investors or TA traders. I'm a long hold (but very small position).
I think this is the one sector I like the ETF's. And the leveraged ones still gives that high upside possibility.
Related to this I'm gettting hammered on TNXP. Hanging in though as I think it could run once the rev's start coming in. Will prob add once it shows some life.
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Morning alert from TL:
The S&P 500 is up +1.17% so far this week and down -0.9% for the month. Not bad. But the level of “apprehension” for equities has risen as the VIX now sits at 25, the highest levels since the tariff days of April to May 2025. So markets are worried.
The S&P 500 is up +1.17% so far this week and down -0.9% for the month. Not bad. But the level of “apprehension” for equities has risen as the VIX now sits at 25, the highest levels since the tariff days of April to May 2025. So markets are worried.
- The driver for this concern appears to be “cracks” in US credit quality emerging in the past week:
– Early Oct: First Brands, an auto parts supplier, filed Ch. 11, with $6b missing and a hit to private credit
– Early Oct: Tricolor brands, an auto lender, loan losses trigger losses for JPM -2.34%
– 10/16: Zions ZION -13.16% fell -13% and Western Alliance WAL -8.23% -11% fell as both reported large losses in distressed commercial mortgages. - Equity markets are taking JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, seriously, when he says “there is never just one cockroach.” And this is why equity markets are nervous and the VIX has surged. Fortunately, high-yield markets are only showing “mild concern” as HY OaS (options-adjusted spread) sit at 352bp wider, which is up from August lows but not anywhere close to the 2025 tariff-highs at 500bp-plus.
- The VIX at 25 is showing “fear” and as we noted earlier this week, the spike in VIX on 10/10 (+32%) is historically associated with the “local low” — so despite these wobbles, we think the risk/reward in stocks remains positive.
- Are we concerned about credit? There are always going to be losses created and therefore credit events. And markets still have memories of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 and the need for the Fed to intervene. So I can understand the “fire, ready, aim” reaction. That said, the muted reaction in high-yield markets gives me some comfort that fundamentals are not deteriorating in an adverse way.
- All the news has not been bad recently. The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) announced that the September CPI report will be released on Oct 24th, Friday. This is an unusual step as the BLS is subject to the US govt shutdown. But it’s a good thing. The CPI report was supposed to be released this past Wednesday (Oct 15th). There are practical reasons for this as the US govt/Social Security Administration need to calculate the cost of living adjustment (COLA) for Sept for the subsequent year.
- Polymarket still places odds of 30-day plus shutdown at 81%. This is up from 76% just a few days ago and this figure is rising. This suggests that a shutdown will last past early November, at least. And our Head of Policy, Tom Block, notes that he sees little progress at the moment. And he has noted it is the extension of the Obamacare subsidies that matters for Democratic members of Congress. So we will see.
- Investors continue to show low conviction around equities, which I view as a contrarian positive. If conviction wavers easily, then this is a sign that sentiment is not ebullient:
– AAII net bulls fell to -12.7 this past week, a quick flip to solid bearishness
– the avg AAII net bulls in 2025 has been -11.7, a solid bearish reading all year
– the only times AAII net bulls avg’d double-digit negative for a full year:
1990: -13.0
2008: -11.1
2022: -21.5 - Notice that this bearish AAII avg sentiment lines up with major stock market decline years? Yet in 2025, the S&P 500 is up 13%. This is why this is the “most hated V-shaped rally”
- Keep in mind that only 22% of fund managers are beating their benchmark in 2025. This is the worst showing since before 2000. To me, this fuels upside into year-end:
– AAII sentiment is bearish = contrarian positive
– fund managers have to catch up with performance
– S&P 500 already up 13% YTD and likely up 5% in 4Q
– doesn’t this sound like a positive risk/reward? - Moreover, 3Q25 EPS season is underway and so far so good:
– Of 51 cos reporting so far
– 82% beating EPS consensus
– by 6.3% magnitude
A few catalysts are coming together that might get us to 7,000. We shall see! I never had the guts to buy puts on those quantum stocks. Maybe OKLO is a good put candidate?
Big pre-market earnings for GM and GE:
General Motors
— The Detroit automaker jumped 10.5% after raising its full-year guidance and posting an earnings beat. GM earned an adjusted $2.80 per share its third quarter, versus the $2.31 a share expected from analysts polled by LSEG. Revenue was $48.59 billion, compared to the $45.27 billion consensus estimate. The company now expects full-year adjusted EPS to come in between $9.75 to $10.50, up from its prior guidance of $8.25 to $10.
GE Aerospace
— The aerospace company rose more than 2% after it posted better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue. For the period, the company posted adjusted earnings of $1.66 per share on revenue of $11.31 billion, above the $1.45 per share and $10.41 billion in revenue that analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for.
General Motors
— The Detroit automaker jumped 10.5% after raising its full-year guidance and posting an earnings beat. GM earned an adjusted $2.80 per share its third quarter, versus the $2.31 a share expected from analysts polled by LSEG. Revenue was $48.59 billion, compared to the $45.27 billion consensus estimate. The company now expects full-year adjusted EPS to come in between $9.75 to $10.50, up from its prior guidance of $8.25 to $10.
GE Aerospace
— The aerospace company rose more than 2% after it posted better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue. For the period, the company posted adjusted earnings of $1.66 per share on revenue of $11.31 billion, above the $1.45 per share and $10.41 billion in revenue that analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for.
Good! I made a ton of money with the rally from $2500 to $3500, but missed the last leg up. I'll buy back in under $4000.
In other news, one of my two HC long holds. About time!
Intuitive Surgical
— The maker of robotic-assisted surgery systems popped 17% on third-quarter results that beat expectations. Intuitive posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.40 on revenue of $2.51 billion. Analysts expected a profit of $1.98 per share on revenue of $2.4 billion, according to LSEG.
Too boring ? Too safe ? 20 year track record
NXJ Tax FREE … approx 7-8% dividend
It dipped LY but came back so it’s been 4-7% the last decade plus
NXJ Tax FREE … approx 7-8% dividend
It dipped LY but came back so it’s been 4-7% the last decade plus
I don't understand your post. Owning this fund isn't about total return, just for income. 7-8% tax-free is like a 12% annual return. Secondly, the risk of losing principle is less than the risk of owning a stock.
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