You get it.
"There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation," says Musk to CNBC. "Yeah, I am not sure what else one would do. I think that is what would happen."
OT: Self driving cars
- Thread starter EngDawg
- Start date
You get it.
"There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation," says Musk to CNBC. "Yeah, I am not sure what else one would do. I think that is what would happen."
The self driving cars sound really cool and could be more safe than a human, but the reality is it will cost more and will be eventually charged to travel by the mile or some other means of a tax. Just wait.
The idealist utopian types also live in a bubble
where they don't consider that a good percentage of this population can't afford a new car, and need that 1998 Honda with 250k miles on it because it is all they have. I appreciate that self driving cars are a good idea to reduce accidents, but will our government be able to mandate this on a majority of the population? I personally like having control of my vehicle. I also consider that our current auto industry can't produce a car without a recall every couple of thousand miles, so how are these self driving cars going to be so perfect that we don't worry about the sensors and mapping going out as environmental conditions change.
I look forward to the technology, but agree it will be difficult. I remember in the early 90s when they discussed "platooning" cars on the interstates for long trips and that it was coming. Never happened.
where they don't consider that a good percentage of this population can't afford a new car, and need that 1998 Honda with 250k miles on it because it is all they have. I appreciate that self driving cars are a good idea to reduce accidents, but will our government be able to mandate this on a majority of the population? I personally like having control of my vehicle. I also consider that our current auto industry can't produce a car without a recall every couple of thousand miles, so how are these self driving cars going to be so perfect that we don't worry about the sensors and mapping going out as environmental conditions change.
I look forward to the technology, but agree it will be difficult. I remember in the early 90s when they discussed "platooning" cars on the interstates for long trips and that it was coming. Never happened.
Nah, they`l just shift liability from the drivers to the manufacturers . There will still be ambulances to chase.
Enjoy your Kool-Aide. You have your head so far up your *** you can't see the sunshine. Or the truth. I'm talking about programming your car to take you somewhere. Is the military going to let us tap into their more accurate, improved system? I doubt it. Will any guidance system (other than the military, and I'm not sure about that) be hack proof? Hell no. Hackers get into our government systems like walking into a hotel. How many computer/cell phone crashes have you enjoyed? I have had plenty. When your guidance system goes out, and you coast over to the curb, what will you do? Turn it off, get out, walk around your car while it resets? You hope? Like I said the technology does not exist yet. Are you ready for a few hours of traveling half the speed limit because your snowflake system doesn't want you to bump? I'm sure you will have another unrealistic response to this, so fire away. Enjoy your dreams.
Taxing individuals to drive electric vehicles as a way to pay for roads has already been studied in the US back around 2009-2010. They placed GPS on cars of various types of drivers (commuters, city, rural, etc.) and tracked them for a year. That data, along with other data since that time, will likely be used to create a per mile tax. My guess is your car's computer will report mileage and you will get a monthly tax bill. They could possibly tack it onto a power bill at your house so that you pay on time. There are a lot of possibilities.
I don't like taxes either but we all pay them now for roads/bridges through the purchase of gas. Why would we get to stop paying taxes when we won't stop driving on the roads?
If you live in Mississippi or the south, you know that we already have a universal basic income. Currently, we have plenty of jobs that are "beneath certain workers" because their current universal basic income (social safety net) is enough for them. There will always be jobs, but they just won't be the same jobs. The same type of thinking was also prevalent during the industrial revolution. 100 years ago, nearly all of my ancestors were farmers. Now, very few farmers farm the same amount of land.
Yes we all pay them now but why is making someone pay for a service they do not need a good thing? If I don't want to pay for cable I don't have to have cable. If I need to drive 100 miles to see my family why should I be taxed or charged by the mile. Its just another way to control peoples lives, how we move and where we go...its coming man. Lawdawg made some good points. We have been paying for roads and bridges for decades and they still suck. They have been experimenting out west charging by the mile. I get that, I understand the tax revenue, but making me purchase a robotic car to get to point A and B is not my idea of a great idea, and that is my opinion.
I am all for technology in some capacity but man merging with machines and what Google wants to do is absolutely scary.
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I've read the posts here and some folks need to slow down a litttle bit. Is self driving cars in the future? Yea. But it's not around the corner. You don't even see adaptive cruise control as an option on a lot of high end cars right now. It might be 15 years out before that alone is on your Nissan Sentra or Chevy Cruize as an option.
There re is a lot of fawning over Tesla and I really get it. They are ahead of their time and not a representation of the main stream. They have been operating in the red since 2012 and would have folded without the capital that musk can provide and subsidies. The technology is cost prohibitive right now for a major automaker and will be for the foreseeable future. The engineers may be foaming at the mouth to accelerate the tech...but the accountants are the ones controlling the brake pedal. If you put this tech on a Honda Civic right now it will cost as much as a fully loaded Acura RLX. That means that Honda will cost the company to make and sell.
Tesla is still a novelty car for most Americans. You can't travel in one yet. What are you going to do if the car is on the charger with a nearly depleted battery and your kid falls in the backyard and breaks his arm? You will have to borrow your neighbor's 20k chevy Mailbu while your Tesla that may have cost as much as two Infinity G series cars sits on the charger.
When people say say it will be 15 to 20 years before it's mainstream, remember that it's about 5 years between just styling changes. How far has a Ford Taurus come in 10 years?
There re is a lot of fawning over Tesla and I really get it. They are ahead of their time and not a representation of the main stream. They have been operating in the red since 2012 and would have folded without the capital that musk can provide and subsidies. The technology is cost prohibitive right now for a major automaker and will be for the foreseeable future. The engineers may be foaming at the mouth to accelerate the tech...but the accountants are the ones controlling the brake pedal. If you put this tech on a Honda Civic right now it will cost as much as a fully loaded Acura RLX. That means that Honda will cost the company to make and sell.
Tesla is still a novelty car for most Americans. You can't travel in one yet. What are you going to do if the car is on the charger with a nearly depleted battery and your kid falls in the backyard and breaks his arm? You will have to borrow your neighbor's 20k chevy Mailbu while your Tesla that may have cost as much as two Infinity G series cars sits on the charger.
When people say say it will be 15 to 20 years before it's mainstream, remember that it's about 5 years between just styling changes. How far has a Ford Taurus come in 10 years?
Because the road you're driving on ain't free. In fact, it's incredibly expensive. Why shouldn't the users' be taxed or charged to pay for it?
Probably, ... eventually. I'm worried that we are headed first for a period of massive unemployment, poverty and societal turmoil before everyone realizes that the old economic models just won't work anymore. 'Pulling up by bootstraps' doesn't work, if there legitimately aren't enough jobs to go around. Future companies and individuals profiting off of the reduced labor won't give up any $$$ willingly for universal income.
Computers don't make decisions, they process data. Decision making is a human trait that can't be replaced by a robot. Robots will never have the ability to discern, only take the path of least resistance.
Eventually (soon?) self-driving cars will be practically mandatory. Why?
Insurance/liability. When it is generally/legally accepted that self-driving cars are safer, car insurance companies will raise rates significantly for those not using self-driving cars, or won't cover accidents occurring when the driver is handling the car manually.
Or it's even possible the government will step in. I imagine every state has seat-belt laws now to protect the people from themselves (and the public from absorbing medical costs from those not wearing seat belts), so it's not a stretch to think the government may mandate self-driving cars in new manufacturing. As the software is perfected and the required devices scale up production, it won't be that expensive to add to even cheap new cars. Retrofitting current cars would likely be difficult/expensive, so it would probably have to be phased in.
Insurance/liability. When it is generally/legally accepted that self-driving cars are safer, car insurance companies will raise rates significantly for those not using self-driving cars, or won't cover accidents occurring when the driver is handling the car manually.
Or it's even possible the government will step in. I imagine every state has seat-belt laws now to protect the people from themselves (and the public from absorbing medical costs from those not wearing seat belts), so it's not a stretch to think the government may mandate self-driving cars in new manufacturing. As the software is perfected and the required devices scale up production, it won't be that expensive to add to even cheap new cars. Retrofitting current cars would likely be difficult/expensive, so it would probably have to be phased in.
Where did anyone in this thread say they would make you buy a robotic car? Hell, most have said the "option" would become more readily available in a decade or so.
And to your point about those 100 miles to see family: taxes paid for that road even if you think it is a ****** one. Would you rather not have a road there at all so that the government couldn't control exactly your route options to see your family?
Edit to add: "If I don't want to pay for cable I don't have to have cable. If I need to drive 100 miles to see my family why should I be taxed or charged by the mile."
Your statements here are conflicting. Here is what it looks like if you take driving out so that you can see why it is conflicting:
"If I don't want to pay for cable I don't have to have cable. If I need to watch TV with my family on cable why should I be taxed or charged for it?"
And another:
"If I don't want to pay for driving I don't have to drive. If I need to drive 100 miles to see my family why should I be taxed or charged by the mile."
Both are things we pay for when we use them.
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No one said that in this thread, I was referencing it will be a govt controlled program. You have to drive this or that car and thats it. That is the point Im trying to make, I didn't say it clearly enough. That is my point about 'control'. It will not be an option, Musk said that not me.
Now Im talking in the future but once all this rolls out old cars will be deemed unsafe so we will have no choice.
Now Im talking in the future but once all this rolls out old cars will be deemed unsafe so we will have no choice.
A company I work with, my main account, is going to start using Otto in the upcoming 12months for local plant transfers of freight. Think Otto down in STL with the Budweiser transfers during the night.
It wont reduce any driver work as there is a driver shortage in this country with an aging driver population. This product would have moved...eventually...due to their driver shortage(at the price they want to pay).
As for how I feel about all this-
- I am concerned as a cyclist. I wouldnt be surprised to see that many here dont understand rules of the road, but cyclists have every right to be on the roads. I am interested to learn how self driving vehicles adjust for unforseen obstacles such as animals(deer, squirrels) and congestion obstacles like car doors, pedestrians, and cyclists.
- I enjoy driving. I dont find it to be a hassle, but also have a 20min commute which is never more than about 25min even with snow on the road. If I were in a highly congested area, I might feel differently.
- How will this affect those who speed because they are in a hurry(late for work/meeting/activity)? Thatll be interesting to see.
Since I havent bought a new car...ever...I cant imagine I will get to this technology very soon, even though I could afford it. I already havent been able to accept paying so many hundreds of dollars a month for a new car, it certainly wont be cheaper once its automatic driving.
It wont reduce any driver work as there is a driver shortage in this country with an aging driver population. This product would have moved...eventually...due to their driver shortage(at the price they want to pay).
As for how I feel about all this-
- I am concerned as a cyclist. I wouldnt be surprised to see that many here dont understand rules of the road, but cyclists have every right to be on the roads. I am interested to learn how self driving vehicles adjust for unforseen obstacles such as animals(deer, squirrels) and congestion obstacles like car doors, pedestrians, and cyclists.
- I enjoy driving. I dont find it to be a hassle, but also have a 20min commute which is never more than about 25min even with snow on the road. If I were in a highly congested area, I might feel differently.
- How will this affect those who speed because they are in a hurry(late for work/meeting/activity)? Thatll be interesting to see.
Since I havent bought a new car...ever...I cant imagine I will get to this technology very soon, even though I could afford it. I already havent been able to accept paying so many hundreds of dollars a month for a new car, it certainly wont be cheaper once its automatic driving.
It's a lot further off from working than people realize. All the "successes" now are on closed routes in ideal conditions. They expect you'll have to continuously "monitor conditions" so that you can take over on a moments notice if necessary....so what's the point?
No, I'll just tell you again to do more research.
Snowflake insults? Lol I'm not a liberal. I just appreciate technological advancements.
"Technology doesn't exist yet?"
Do more research.
And of course there will be bugs in the systems and I have no idea why you are comparing private sector computer infrastructure to our current gov't's computer systems currently in place that are weak, so you are right at least about one thing.
Again, do more research. You lost me at comparing self driving cars to our current gov't computer systems that are obsolete.
Does calling me a snowflake make you feel better or something?
Snowflake insults? Lol I'm not a liberal. I just appreciate technological advancements.
"Technology doesn't exist yet?"
Do more research.
And of course there will be bugs in the systems and I have no idea why you are comparing private sector computer infrastructure to our current gov't's computer systems currently in place that are weak, so you are right at least about one thing.
Again, do more research. You lost me at comparing self driving cars to our current gov't computer systems that are obsolete.
Does calling me a snowflake make you feel better or something?
I look forward to self-driving cars...
My hope is that it changes the ownership model pretty significantly. Currently, I drive my car about 30 minutes a day (15 minutes each way to-from work), so for 23 hours and 30 minutes, it's just taking up space somewhere.
With self-driving cars, I can see being part of a car-share service similar to Uber or Lyft where I order a car for the 15 minutes I need one - it shows up, drives me to work and then goes and drives somebody else somewhere else.
My hope is that it changes the ownership model pretty significantly. Currently, I drive my car about 30 minutes a day (15 minutes each way to-from work), so for 23 hours and 30 minutes, it's just taking up space somewhere.
With self-driving cars, I can see being part of a car-share service similar to Uber or Lyft where I order a car for the 15 minutes I need one - it shows up, drives me to work and then goes and drives somebody else somewhere else.
One thing people don't seem to get in this thread, is I'm pretty sure most self driving cars will be FLEETS, which means individuals won't own them anywhere close to the ownership rates of traditional cars. You will only have access to a car when you need it. To make it even more interesting, through AI, your riding habits will be taken into account and therefore you won't even need to call an uber or self driving car to pick you up, it'll already be waiting for you outside. An easy example is through AI, it will know your shopping and work habits, and be ready to pick you up and you won't need to call the car to come get you. This frees up the cars to go where they are needed, rather than sitting in your driveway.
This points to less cars on the road in my opinion.
Therefore, it WILL NOT be more expensive.
Paying per mile or however it will be will still be cheaper than the majority of Americans who have monthly car notes, maintenance costs, insurance costs, accessories, upgrades, and what about traffic tickets and violations? Those will be a thing of the past!
I believe in the long run it'll be cheaper, safer and more efficient.
And for the uninformed ppl who say there are "numerous accidents" and "the technology isn't here yet," look again because you haven't. Uber is testing in Pittsburg right now, Tesla, Google, etc....testing is going on for years, so in 15yrs or so, it'll start becoming mainstream.
I'm sure there will be people driving their own cars still, but those ppl will pay more for their own insurance, car notes, maintenance, etc.
Embrace technology instead of telling everyone to "Get off my lawn!"
This points to less cars on the road in my opinion.
Therefore, it WILL NOT be more expensive.
Paying per mile or however it will be will still be cheaper than the majority of Americans who have monthly car notes, maintenance costs, insurance costs, accessories, upgrades, and what about traffic tickets and violations? Those will be a thing of the past!
I believe in the long run it'll be cheaper, safer and more efficient.
And for the uninformed ppl who say there are "numerous accidents" and "the technology isn't here yet," look again because you haven't. Uber is testing in Pittsburg right now, Tesla, Google, etc....testing is going on for years, so in 15yrs or so, it'll start becoming mainstream.
I'm sure there will be people driving their own cars still, but those ppl will pay more for their own insurance, car notes, maintenance, etc.
Embrace technology instead of telling everyone to "Get off my lawn!"
This is a fantastic point.
The market will price-out manually driven cars. That provides political cover so that your duly elected representatives aren't charged with taking away your right to drive. It also makes economic sense. At some point in the near future, a self-driving car will be millions of times better than a human driver (and thus cheaper to insure). This technology already "sees" accidents before they happen and avoids them:
Purely my opinion, but I believe some are too conservative with their timeline for rate of adoption. If this were merely adaptive cruise control, sure, it's been available for a decade and still isn't in a lot of cars. But that might be because it doesn't provide that much benefit compared to cost to the consumer.
Full autonomy, however, is different. “The amount of time the average driver spends behind the wheel each year is equivalent to seven 40-hour weeks at the office,” says Jurek Grabowski, research director for the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety. Link If you could spend that time in the way that you wanted, without having to concentrate on mundane driving, why would you choose to drive? Why not watch a movie, the news, spend time with your family, or work?
When you can get in your car at midnight, sleep and wake up in a city six hours away in time to work, that's a game changer. Think about the impact on regional air travel. On real estate and city planning (all those parking garages in city centers can be repurposed for something more useful).
If this were merely better seats or cooler headlights, I agree that the adoption rate would be lukewarm. But this technology frees substantial amounts of the most valuable resource we all have: time. This is being underestimated.
I don't think level 4 autonomous cars will necessarily be ubiquitous in 5 years. But within 10, sure. There's just too much of an incentive for the majority of Americans.
The market will price-out manually driven cars. That provides political cover so that your duly elected representatives aren't charged with taking away your right to drive. It also makes economic sense. At some point in the near future, a self-driving car will be millions of times better than a human driver (and thus cheaper to insure). This technology already "sees" accidents before they happen and avoids them:
Purely my opinion, but I believe some are too conservative with their timeline for rate of adoption. If this were merely adaptive cruise control, sure, it's been available for a decade and still isn't in a lot of cars. But that might be because it doesn't provide that much benefit compared to cost to the consumer.
Full autonomy, however, is different. “The amount of time the average driver spends behind the wheel each year is equivalent to seven 40-hour weeks at the office,” says Jurek Grabowski, research director for the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety. Link If you could spend that time in the way that you wanted, without having to concentrate on mundane driving, why would you choose to drive? Why not watch a movie, the news, spend time with your family, or work?
When you can get in your car at midnight, sleep and wake up in a city six hours away in time to work, that's a game changer. Think about the impact on regional air travel. On real estate and city planning (all those parking garages in city centers can be repurposed for something more useful).
If this were merely better seats or cooler headlights, I agree that the adoption rate would be lukewarm. But this technology frees substantial amounts of the most valuable resource we all have: time. This is being underestimated.
I don't think level 4 autonomous cars will necessarily be ubiquitous in 5 years. But within 10, sure. There's just too much of an incentive for the majority of Americans.
Somehow some on this board will make excuses.."oh a human would have caught it!"
Of course there are technology bugs still to be worked out. I don't know of anything that's fail safe.
I agree with everything you said and why I want it here quicker (but when it's ready).
Of course there are technology bugs still to be worked out. I don't know of anything that's fail safe.
I agree with everything you said and why I want it here quicker (but when it's ready).
"Life will go own just as it always has; that is badly" - George Orwell, Animal Farm
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