Red Flag warnings up for the whole region tomorrow with sunshine, low humidity and gusty winds, plus extraordinarily dry conditions, including the maximum amount of fuel possible with the dry leaves everywhere.
OT: Regional Drought Thread
- Thread starter RU848789
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Ask the idiot truck drivers who are still flicking cigarette butts out the window
or the car drivers which outnumber them 100 to 1? when it is THIS dry.. fires happen even without human action
Yes, it's true that 10-15% of wildfires have natural causes (mostly lightning), but I found this tidbit in the link, below, to be interesting.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/89757/people-cause-most-us-wildfires
Despite the high number of incidents, human-ignited wildfires accounted for just 44 percent of the total area burned because many of them occurred in relatively wet areas and near population centers, where firefighters likely could quickly extinguish the fires before they spread.
Mine too. I can't understand why they do that when their friggin' car has an ashtray.
Is the same mentality as people who toss garbage out of their cars, which I see less frequently than I once did, but is still not a totally rare thing. Back when I was doing a lot of road trips with the family in the Suburban which I didn't mind getting a little banged up, and I'd see someone tossing food wrappers or empty containers out of their car, I'd have to resist the momentary urge to pull alongside and nudge them off the road.
When people toss garbage out of their car, including cigarettes, it's a pretty unarguable sign that those people are scum and humanity would be better off without them.
While I agree with the sentiment, of course, it does remind me of one of my favorite little "throwaway" jokes by Steve Martin near the end of his "Let's Get Small" album in the late 70s (the one that launched his career). He's talking about the great Maharishi Guru and wants to pass along what he told Steve, saying it was something he says to himself all the time: "I studied with the Maharishi for many years, and really didn't learn that much. But one thing that he taught me, I'll never forget: 'ALWAYS...' no, wait-- 'NEVER...' no, wait, it was 'ALWAYS carry a litter bag in your car. It doesn't take up much room, and if it gets full, you can toss it out the window.'" Still cracks me up.
Is a good joke although I suspect there will be many folks who miss the points of the joke. Which, in typical Steve Martin humor, is one of the big parts of the joke people miss.
Ha, I saw that same quote when I was checking the numbers.
It is interesting. Brings to mind those wildfires they just let burn in more remote parts of Canada.
Updated drought map for the NE region, showing most of our region in severe drought, but a big chunk of the Pine Barrens/SENJ coast in extreme drought, which is the first time in 22 years any part of our area has been in extreme drought. Still looking at 1/4-1/2" of rain Sunday night which will help a bit. Some chance of a coastal low bringing more substantial rain late next week.
And here's the NWS-Philly story on the drought conditions for our local area.
And here's the NWS-Philly story on the drought conditions for our local area.
Wildfires all over NJ, as per the article below and many more fires in the Northeast US.
https://apnews.com/article/new-jersey-forest-fires-426ee055e5aff6fe18f646b0c5c7643c
https://apnews.com/article/new-jersey-forest-fires-426ee055e5aff6fe18f646b0c5c7643c
I could see the plume of smoke from the Black Run Preserve fire (Evesham) from my house yesterday.
Seeing pictures posted all over Facebook of dried up Bogs all over the Pine Barrens.
The pond outside of my work which is usually a couple feet deep is almost totally dried up.
We have a pond across the street, which is down at least 3-4 feet - lowest I've seen it in my 30 years here.
Not sure why you'd say that. Radar looks good and every model has a widespread 1/4-1/2" for the whole Philly/NJ/NYC region.
And here's the latest NWS-Philly update on the latest counts of consecutive days without measurable precipitation at the major climate locations as of Saturday (last time there was measurable precipitation and the amount are in parentheses); the streaks should end for these stations tonight (or early Monday). By the way, the NJDEP is holding a hearing on Tuesday to discuss potential water use restrictions.
Allentown 16 days (0.01" on October 24) - tied for 44th longest
Atlantic City Airport 38 days (0.02" on October 2) - record longest
Mount Pocono 26 days (0.05" on October 14) - tied for 2nd longest
Philadelphia 42 days (0.11" on September 28) - record longest
Reading 16 days (0.01" on October 24) - tied for 73rd longest
Trenton 42 days (0.23" on September 28) - record longest
Wilmington 42 days (0.04" on September 28) - record longest
Georgetown 43 days (0.13" on September 27) - record longest
One note on this, drought is a much longer term weather phenomena than most of the hazardous weather we talk about, so one rain event (especially one with as little as this), generally isn't enough to make any significant dent in the deficit and drought conditions. Therefore, please continue to heed any burn bans or water conservation efforts your localities may have in place! For the rest of the week, there is a small (emphasis on small) chance for rain on Thursday. Otherwise, it appears we'll have mostly dry conditions.
glorious rain last night
.29 in the bucket
First since September 29
.29 in the bucket
First since September 29
The rain also aligns with our most recent football victories too (9/27, then a long drought, up until 11/9)
NWS forecast was pretty good with everywhere in the region getting measurable rain, so all of the rainless streaks are now over, and most of the region getting 0.25-0.50", although some only got 0.10-0.25" and a few got 0.50-0.75". Got about 1/4" here. Went outside in it around 1 am just to see what rain felt like again, lol.
But this barely puts a dent in the drought, especially given little chance of rain for at least the next 7-8 days, so we're likely going to have some more red flag days with high wildfire risk, with the next one likely to be tomorrow. Beyond that the CPC is calling for 11/18-11/24 to have "normal" precip levels, which would be great (except for 11/23 of course).
But this barely puts a dent in the drought, especially given little chance of rain for at least the next 7-8 days, so we're likely going to have some more red flag days with high wildfire risk, with the next one likely to be tomorrow. Beyond that the CPC is calling for 11/18-11/24 to have "normal" precip levels, which would be great (except for 11/23 of course).
Good to finally see something but a long way to go.
Based on the Delaware and Schuylkill rivers near me I'm guessing there will be no Washington Crossing this Christmas unless things change fairly quickly.
The discussion of how fires are started is interesting. The fire in Jackson Twsp was started at a firing range by a guy that was using illegal ammunition. That's a new one to me!
Based on the Delaware and Schuylkill rivers near me I'm guessing there will be no Washington Crossing this Christmas unless things change fairly quickly.
The discussion of how fires are started is interesting. The fire in Jackson Twsp was started at a firing range by a guy that was using illegal ammunition. That's a new one to me!
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There was this liquid substance falling from the sky this morning. I don’t know what the young people call it, but we used to refer to it as rain from what I remember.
That's a regular cause out West, not common compared to other causes but I've seen it cited plenty.
That is a major range in the Monmouth/Ocean Area. We have shot there a number of times. It is huge. The guy was charged with arson and is sitting in jail.
If he is that dumb to shot those type of rounds during an extreme drought he deserves to be in jail.
I do know the range and that area in general. Apparently it's a lot bigger than I realized.
A c
A couple of years ago we had a group of fools target practicing out in the sagebrush (about 90 miles SE of Bend OR) using exploding targets! Started a +/- 10,000 acre wildfire. They were identified and had to pay for the costs of damage and fire suppression. Duh!
A couple of years ago we had a group of fools target practicing out in the sagebrush (about 90 miles SE of Bend OR) using exploding targets! Started a +/- 10,000 acre wildfire. They were identified and had to pay for the costs of damage and fire suppression. Duh!
Been super busy with work and life, originally was checking the short range models and there were a few consecutive runs that showed a lot of the precip shutting off around 10PM last night, and early radar returns showed a battle with entrenched dry air (took a while for the column to saturate). Ended up pleasantly surprised with 0.34”, nowhere near enough to make a meaningful dent in deficit.
A major cranberry operation in Chatsworth is owned by a family that includes a Rutgers guy, Class of '67. I believe he's kind of the patriarch now and the sons run it. Very nice guy, was on the NBC4 news tonight. Met him at a reunion a couple of years ago.
Tell that to the family who lost an 18 year old fire fighter son last weekend. dup
On Nov. 7, the Manasquan Reservoir was at less than 52% of its nearly 4.7 billion gallon water storage capacity, according to the New Jersey Water Supply Authority, which manages the Manasquan, Spruce Run and Round Valley reservoirs.
In northern New Jersey, the Spruce Run Reservoir in Hunterdon County was at less than 32% of its 3.5 billion gallon capacity as of Nov. 12, according to the water supply authority.
Round Valley Reservoir in Hunterdon County was faring better, at more than 90% of its nearly 50-billion-gallon capacity, according to the agency.
In Passaic County, the Wanaque, Monksville and Greenwood Lake reservoirs were at 36% capacity as of Tuesday, according to the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission, which oversees the reservoirs.
In northern New Jersey, the Spruce Run Reservoir in Hunterdon County was at less than 32% of its 3.5 billion gallon capacity as of Nov. 12, according to the water supply authority.
Round Valley Reservoir in Hunterdon County was faring better, at more than 90% of its nearly 50-billion-gallon capacity, according to the agency.
In Passaic County, the Wanaque, Monksville and Greenwood Lake reservoirs were at 36% capacity as of Tuesday, according to the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission, which oversees the reservoirs.
Thanks, hadn't had time to check on how the DEP hearing went today. A little surprised, NJ only went with a drought warning and not a drought emergency, which I think is what is needed, i.e., it's time for water use restrictions, since it's difficult to predict future rainfall and we're pretty far behind (8-15" low on rainfall for most of NJ in 2024).On Nov. 7, the Manasquan Reservoir was at less than 52% of its nearly 4.7 billion gallon water storage capacity, according to the New Jersey Water Supply Authority, which manages the Manasquan, Spruce Run and Round Valley reservoirs.
In northern New Jersey, the Spruce Run Reservoir in Hunterdon County was at less than 32% of its 3.5 billion gallon capacity as of Nov. 12, according to the water supply authority.
Round Valley Reservoir in Hunterdon County was faring better, at more than 90% of its nearly 50-billion-gallon capacity, according to the agency.
In Passaic County, the Wanaque, Monksville and Greenwood Lake reservoirs were at 36% capacity as of Tuesday, according to the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission, which oversees the reservoirs.