OT: Regional Drought Thread
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The opposite isn't great, either.
Fall break from school, check.
Camping/mtb trip to desert planned and organized, check.
First rain day after months of sunny Indian Summer, followed by sudden temperature drop into the 30s at night ... ******* it!
Saved the trip with some tiny cabin camping to escape the cold, and luckily rain gave way to warm days and dry trails.
Seems like you have the same luck as I do when it comes to rain and camping.
What desert? I just got back this month from camping in Washington state for two weeks, started at Mount St Helens and finished up at Rimrock Lake by Mt Rainier.
With the next 3 months predicted by NOAA (see link below) to have normal precip that would end the drought for most in the region and you'd be able to make fires outside again this winter. Assuming the forecast is correct and the error bars on seasonal forecasts are fairly high. The next 8-14 days still look pretty dry, however, although there are some chances of mostly light rain in the next week.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-and-drier-south-wetter-north
Ended up just south of Zion National Park - great views of the park and surrounding mesas, no crowds.
Looks like there's a catastrophe in West Virginia as there's a couch burning ban there.
We call it local's summer here. I broke my record of the latest day of the year sitting on the beach today. Only did an hour as I have other things to do but just couldn't pass it up.
Last week of October playing golf in shirt sleeves and hitting the beach. Crazy.
well you may be smelling and choking on wildfire smoke if the rains don't come early
And the drought worsens with almost the entire NWS-Philly region, as per the NWS tweet below in moderate or severe drought with fire restrictions everywhere (moderate drought conditions extend through NNJ/NYC/LI too). But it's a gorgeous day, today, with record highs all over (84F here), which is great for the trick-or-treaters (already had a bunch). Could be a light shower or two overnight, but <0.05", which won't do much for drought conditions.
BTW...if you come down to the Muni Building to vote on Tuesday ask for me. I supervise the thing. Would be nice to meet another local fan and forum participant.
That map has finally caught up with reality. We're at the very bottom of Hunterdon in that severe zone. We did get a little "moist" early this morning which provided some leaf watering for the flowers and plants. I could tell because I wasn't up all night coughing from a horrible dry throat.
The sun appears to have been obscured by dark grey objects in the sky and I observed some small water droplets falling to the earth, apparently from these grey objects. Can't quite figure out what's going on.
Just throw some rain days in there now and again and it can stay this way all year ex. Snow for Christmas.
Absolutely unreal. Just went for a half hour walk, didn't want to come back inside.
October is now the driest month on record, ever, for many locations in the region...
As expected, every official weather site in the NWS-Philly (most of NJ, EPA, all of DE and NE MD) and NWS-NYC (NENJ, NYC, LI, Hudson Valley, ECT) offices just had its driest October on record, with many sites having zero measurable precip and most sites having their driest month ever on record (most of these sites have records going back 50, 100 or even 150 years), as per the first two graphics below from the NWS.
This has just been an extraordinarily dry month-plus for the entire region; also most sites were well above normal temperature-wise. And with regard to why, here's a quote from a meteorologist at the NWS-Philly: "Our theory here is that the very warm and active tropics have led to unusually strong subsidence in the mid-latitudes across the eastern US. This combined with a pattern favoring ridging in our region has further anchored and strengthened the pattern that was already in place."
Beyond our region, it’s also been abnormally dry for almost 80% of the US, as per the linked article below and the 3rd graphic, with this likely being the driest October on record for the US. And with regard to why much of the country has been so dry, the article below discusses how this is largely due to persistent high pressure to our NW giving us prevailing NW (dry) winds, mostly due to the jet stream being displaced well to the north vs. typical (plus high pressure is typically dry) and this kind of flow prevents Gulf of Mexico moisture from getting very far north.
And while it certainly makes for great weather for doing stuff outside, obviously the impacts are pretty serious on flora/fauna, farming, water supplies, and ongoing and future wildfires. Also, while the next 1-2 weeks look pretty dry for our region, hopefully the Climate Prediction Center will be correct about most of the NE/Midwest and SW getting close to normal precip for Nov-Dec-Jan, as per the 4th graphic, which would help to alleviate drought conditions in many locations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/10/24/us-drought-dry-conditions-east-maps/
As expected, every official weather site in the NWS-Philly (most of NJ, EPA, all of DE and NE MD) and NWS-NYC (NENJ, NYC, LI, Hudson Valley, ECT) offices just had its driest October on record, with many sites having zero measurable precip and most sites having their driest month ever on record (most of these sites have records going back 50, 100 or even 150 years), as per the first two graphics below from the NWS.
This has just been an extraordinarily dry month-plus for the entire region; also most sites were well above normal temperature-wise. And with regard to why, here's a quote from a meteorologist at the NWS-Philly: "Our theory here is that the very warm and active tropics have led to unusually strong subsidence in the mid-latitudes across the eastern US. This combined with a pattern favoring ridging in our region has further anchored and strengthened the pattern that was already in place."
Beyond our region, it’s also been abnormally dry for almost 80% of the US, as per the linked article below and the 3rd graphic, with this likely being the driest October on record for the US. And with regard to why much of the country has been so dry, the article below discusses how this is largely due to persistent high pressure to our NW giving us prevailing NW (dry) winds, mostly due to the jet stream being displaced well to the north vs. typical (plus high pressure is typically dry) and this kind of flow prevents Gulf of Mexico moisture from getting very far north.
And while it certainly makes for great weather for doing stuff outside, obviously the impacts are pretty serious on flora/fauna, farming, water supplies, and ongoing and future wildfires. Also, while the next 1-2 weeks look pretty dry for our region, hopefully the Climate Prediction Center will be correct about most of the NE/Midwest and SW getting close to normal precip for Nov-Dec-Jan, as per the 4th graphic, which would help to alleviate drought conditions in many locations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/10/24/us-drought-dry-conditions-east-maps/
When the pattern snaps back, it's going to snap back ugly. Flooded basements galore.
I had a French drain installed in March. We hardly got any decent rain since. Also had my pavers in the yard regraded so that should help. Yeah I could see us getting hammered when the pattern finally breaks.
Interesting update from the NWS-Philly on the record dry streaks at many locations and unless some of these locations get some measurable precip late Wednesday (a low probability right now), every one of these locations (Philly, Georgetown DE, Wilmington, Trenton, and AC) will either continue their ongoing record dry streaks or set record dry streaks in a few days. Plus, there's the potential for record warmth this coming Wednesday.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
956 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
CLIMATE...
A record stretch (consecutive days) without measurable precipitation
is in progress in Philadelphia. Currently at 35 days up to and
including November 2. The previous record was 29 days from 1874.
A record stretch without measurable precipitation is in progress
in Georgetown, Delaware. Currently at 36 days up to and including
November 2. The previous record was 34 days from October and
November 2001.
Wilmington, Delaware: Currently at 35 days up to and including
November 2. The previous record was 34 days from January and
February 1909.
Trenton, New Jersey: Currently at 35 days up to and including
November 2. Record is 38 days from April and May 1903. Record
will be tied if we reach 1 AM (climate midnight) Wednesday
morning (November 6). Record will be broken if we reach 1 AM
Thursday morning (November 7).
Atlantic City International Airport, New Jersey: Currently at
31 days up to and including November 2. Record is 34 days from
August and September 1995. Record will be tied if we reach 1 AM
(climate midnight) Wednesday morning (November 6). Record will
be broken if we reach 1 AM Thursday morning (November 7).
Record-challenging warmth will be returning for Wednesday with
high temperatures forecasted to be in the upper 70s to around 80
for many locations.
Record High Temperatures for November 6th:
SITE RECORD / YEAR
Allentown (ABE)..........78 / 1948
AC Airport (ACY).........77 / 1961
AC Marina (55N)..........72 / 1999
Georgetown (GED..........82 / 2022
Mount Pocono (MPO).......69 / 1978
Philadelphia (PHL).......79 / 1948
Reading (RDG)............79 / 1975
Trenton (TTN)............77 / 1948
Wilmington (ILG).........79 / 1948
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
956 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
CLIMATE...
A record stretch (consecutive days) without measurable precipitation
is in progress in Philadelphia. Currently at 35 days up to and
including November 2. The previous record was 29 days from 1874.
A record stretch without measurable precipitation is in progress
in Georgetown, Delaware. Currently at 36 days up to and including
November 2. The previous record was 34 days from October and
November 2001.
Wilmington, Delaware: Currently at 35 days up to and including
November 2. The previous record was 34 days from January and
February 1909.
Trenton, New Jersey: Currently at 35 days up to and including
November 2. Record is 38 days from April and May 1903. Record
will be tied if we reach 1 AM (climate midnight) Wednesday
morning (November 6). Record will be broken if we reach 1 AM
Thursday morning (November 7).
Atlantic City International Airport, New Jersey: Currently at
31 days up to and including November 2. Record is 34 days from
August and September 1995. Record will be tied if we reach 1 AM
(climate midnight) Wednesday morning (November 6). Record will
be broken if we reach 1 AM Thursday morning (November 7).
Record-challenging warmth will be returning for Wednesday with
high temperatures forecasted to be in the upper 70s to around 80
for many locations.
Record High Temperatures for November 6th:
SITE RECORD / YEAR
Allentown (ABE)..........78 / 1948
AC Airport (ACY).........77 / 1961
AC Marina (55N)..........72 / 1999
Georgetown (GED..........82 / 2022
Mount Pocono (MPO).......69 / 1978
Philadelphia (PHL).......79 / 1948
Reading (RDG)............79 / 1975
Trenton (TTN)............77 / 1948
Wilmington (ILG).........79 / 1948
"We probably sound like a broken record by talking about all these broken records, but we have yet another new all time station record of consecutive days with no measurable precipitation set, this time at Wilmington, DE. No measurable rainfall for 35 days and counting. #DEwx
The next 2 of these records coming up to be broken will be Trenton (38 consec. days from 1903) and the Atlantic City Airport (34 consec. days from 1995) in NJ. If the current forecast of no measurable rainfall holds, these will both be broken by the end of the day Wednesday, November 6th."
The next 2 of these records coming up to be broken will be Trenton (38 consec. days from 1903) and the Atlantic City Airport (34 consec. days from 1995) in NJ. If the current forecast of no measurable rainfall holds, these will both be broken by the end of the day Wednesday, November 6th."
Yeah, but Snowmageddon would be preferable to torrential rains. This way, the snowmelt is more gradual and soaks into the hard-baked soil (at least some) before runoff occurs.
When will it rain again in Central Jersey?
The 40+ days without measurable rainfall for almost all of the region may well end on Sunday afternoon/evening, with 1/4-1/2" currently in most of the mid-range models, but the amount of rainfall will likely be influenced by how much moisture from Rafael's remnants become captured with a separate low expected to reach our area by Sunday. We could use the rain, obviously.
As per my previous post on this, many record highs are expected for tomorrow.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
108 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
By Saturday night, Sunday, and into early Monday, a stronger
system approaches and may finally bring the first widespread
rainfall to the region in more than a month. This may be
enhanced by some remnant tropical moisture from TC Raphael,
which is currently a tropical storm located in the Caribbean,
and forecast to move northwest in the Gulf of Mexico later this
week as a hurricane. The evolution of this system remains quite
unclear at this point, aside from Raphael eventually weakening
in the Gulf. The past few runs of guidance has come into a sort
of consensus for Raphael`s remnants to get ingested into the
larger system across the interior South, but if this does not
occur, rain chances would end up being much lower in our region.
Based on the trends in guidance, we did increase PoPs to 50-60%
for the entire area, but again, a lot of uncertainty remains.
Something to keep a close eye on. Temps will remain a bit on
the plus side of normal, with highs generally in the 60s and
lows in the 40s to low 50s.
As per my previous post on this, many record highs are expected for tomorrow.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
108 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
By Saturday night, Sunday, and into early Monday, a stronger
system approaches and may finally bring the first widespread
rainfall to the region in more than a month. This may be
enhanced by some remnant tropical moisture from TC Raphael,
which is currently a tropical storm located in the Caribbean,
and forecast to move northwest in the Gulf of Mexico later this
week as a hurricane. The evolution of this system remains quite
unclear at this point, aside from Raphael eventually weakening
in the Gulf. The past few runs of guidance has come into a sort
of consensus for Raphael`s remnants to get ingested into the
larger system across the interior South, but if this does not
occur, rain chances would end up being much lower in our region.
Based on the trends in guidance, we did increase PoPs to 50-60%
for the entire area, but again, a lot of uncertainty remains.
Something to keep a close eye on. Temps will remain a bit on
the plus side of normal, with highs generally in the 60s and
lows in the 40s to low 50s.
Tomorrow is shaping up as another beach day. You still see people sporadically in the water with just a bathing suit on. Of course there are also a few early morning diehards who seem to be trying to replicate a natural cold plunge regardless of the air temperature.
Not sure where you're seeing that. Here's this morning's NWS discussion - not a ton of rain but at least 1/4" is likely, which is at least a small help and would break the streak.
There continues to be an increasing
chance for widespread shower activity later Sunday into Monday,
which would bring much needed rain to the our region. As of now,
0.25-0.50 inches of rain for the area. Showers look to start during
mostly the second half of Sunday, especially at night, with the
arrival of a warm front, an upper-level jet approaching with some
forcing and with a low-level jet aiding in stronger warm air
advection (PoPs increase to the 70-80 percent range).
Accuweather was showing thatfor Hamilton. Just checked NOAA that says 80% chance of rain. I like that better