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OT: Potential Winter Storm on 3/7-8

Z

zebnatto

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Is it looking like more snow along coast than north inland? Would that mean temps will be plenty cold?
 
WhiteBus

WhiteBus

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6ABC is saying less than an inch (Euro) to 10in (NAM) for Philly. Hopping for nothing but not putting blackout supplies away.
 
sport2231

sport2231

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zebnatto said:
Is it looking like more snow along coast than north inland? Would that mean temps will be plenty cold?
Click to expand...

It’s going to be almost impossible to answer this question until a bit before the storm actually happens.

The reason so many on here call storms bust is because they ride a model verbatim, and when it doesn’t unfold exactly like that. It’s a “bust”.

The only thing to use the models for even this far out is whether there is a consensus that the storm will be near enough to the coast that someone from the NJ shore to Eastern PA will get the brunt and will get a swath of 12-16 inches. The farther away you are from where that actually happens the less you will get.

To pinpoint locations is almost impossible to know until the storm basically happens
 
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R

RUHotTrumpetMonkeyLove

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What's that? The MILFS in Hillsborough have crabs?
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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zebnatto said:
Is it looking like more snow along coast than north inland? Would that mean temps will be plenty cold?
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not certain...because some models are not so good for the coast....NAM and GFS wouldnt be great for Jersey shore to AC...but CMC would be great
 
Z

zebnatto

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sport2231 said:
It’s going to be almost impossible to answer this question until a bit before the storm actually happens.

The reason so many on here call storms bust is because they ride a model verbatim, and when it doesn’t unfold exactly like that. It’s a “bust”.

The only thing to use the models for even this far out is whether there is a consensus that the storm will be near enough to the coast that someone from the NJ shore to Eastern PA will get the brunt and will get a swath of 12-16 inches. The farther away you are from where that actually happens the less you will get.

To pinpoint locations is almost impossible to know until the storm basically happens
Click to expand...
How about this one: Using New Brunswick as point of reference, when does precip start?
 
M

Mikemarc

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European model running now.

If it shows a jump west, game on imo. It’s been the farthest out to sea.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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sport2231 said:
I think the precip starts around midday
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precip will break out overnight...but may be lighter or mixed or rain for some in the morning....the real show would be after midday through the evening at this time...of course timeframes can change
 
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zebnatto

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bac2therac said:
precip will break out overnight...but may be lighter or mixed or rain for some in the morning....the real show would be after midday through the evening at this time...of course timeframes can change
Click to expand...
Early W and through the day?
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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thats a pretty signifcant shift west...as did the CMC, the NAM ticked west as well this morning. Everything looks great for a major snowstorm as modelled currently...however we have to watch and see if this thing will continue to tick west or tick east a bit. A slight shift can matter alot

edit..here is the Kuchera map of the euro to 6z which is 1am
 
R

RU848789

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RU848789 said:
It's never easy. CMC crushes CNJ, the NAM and RGEM (US and Canadian mesoscale models) crush CNJ from 95 and NW, but have a fair amount less just SE of 95 towards the coast and the GFS is similar to the NAM, although even the 95 corridor mixes significantly. Very close call at this point for 95 and especially the coast, but NW of 95 is looking very bullish for major snow...unless the Euro stays further offshore, lol. Bottom line is we're looking at a potentially major snowstorm for most of the area, but it's not a lock yet.
Click to expand...

UK and Euro also generally are major hits (8-12") for CNJ, NNJ, NYC, LI, Hudson Valley, but the immediate coast has a bit less snow, although still quite a bit. So, we have damn good model consensus 48 hours out for a significant to major snowstorm on Wednesday, starting in the wee hours of the morning and lasting until late evening with the worst likely being between between noon and 10 pm. Still plenty of time for the track to shift westward more, bringing rain/mix to 95 and especially the coast or to be a bit more offshore with a big hit for the coast/95 with less NW, but that's not what we're looking at right now

Absolutely expect winter storm watches to at least go up from 195 north and maybe even Ocean County too, and for 95 SW down through at least Philly/Wilmington. Not sure if they'll issue watches for interior SNJ/SE NJ, where more rain is possible.
 
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R

RU848789

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WhiteBus said:
6ABC is saying less than an inch (Euro) to 10in (NAM) for Philly. Hopping for nothing but not putting blackout supplies away.
Click to expand...
Philly will get winter storm watches shortly, I'm sure. I assume predictions for Philly will be in the 4-8" range to be conservative, but up to 12" is certainly possible (as is 2-4" if the track shifts west).
 
Knight Shift

Knight Shift

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RU848789 said:
UK and Euro also generally are major hits (8-12") for CNJ, NNJ, NYC, LI, Hudson Valley, but the immediate coast has a bit less snow, although still quite a bit. So, we have damn good model consensus 48 hours out for a significant to major snowstorm on Wednesday, starting in the wee hours of the morning and lasting until late evening with the worst likely being between between noon and 10 pm. Still plenty of time for the track to shift westward more, bringing rain/mix to 95 and especially the coast or to be a bit more offshore with a big hit for the coast/95 with less NW, but that's not what we're looking at right now

Absolutely expect winter storm watches to at least go up from 195 north and maybe even Ocean County too, and for 95 SW down through at least Philly/Wilmington. Not sure if they'll issue watches for interior SNJ/SE NJ, where more rain is possible.
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No. Not going to happen. Just my instinct.
 
M

m1ipabrams

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RU848789 said:
Philly will get winter storm watches shortly, I'm sure. I assume predictions for Philly will be in the 4-8" range to be conservative, but up to 12" is certainly possible (as is 2-4" if the track shifts west).
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Dang, now I have to figure out how change to my wed 8am flight out of philly to Aruba......
 
H

Hrdcorhays

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Feb 5, 2003
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I know 3/12 is still a ways away, but #s first post mentioned that. I have important travel plans next week on Wednesday so I need to be super cognizant of storms and re-schedule early. Any update on that potentiality?
 
Z

zebnatto

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RU848789 said:
Philly will get winter storm watches shortly, I'm sure. I assume predictions for Philly will be in the 4-8" range to be conservative, but up to 12" is certainly possible (as is 2-4" if the track shifts west).
Click to expand...
Numbers, you are in Metuchen. I offer the over/under on 6”, which do you take?
 
R

RU848789

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zebnatto said:
Numbers, you are in Metuchen. I offer the over/under on 6”, which do you take?
Click to expand...

Right now, I'd say 6" is my prediction for Metuchen. Just a little gun shy on mixing and melting during the day to say the 10" I actually think we'll get based on today's models. But if I had to bet right now, I'd go with the over.
 
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RU848789

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hrdcorhays said:
I know 3/12 is still a ways away, but #s first post mentioned that. I have important travel plans next week on Wednesday so I need to be super cognizant of storms and re-schedule early. Any update on that potentiality?
Click to expand...
honestly, too far off and we need to see how the first storm goes before making any predictions on the 2nd, as it will greatly affect the outcome of the 2nd
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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RU848789 said:
honestly, too far off and we need to see how the first storm goes before making any predictions on the 2nd, as it will greatly affect the outcome of the 2nd
Click to expand...
The ensemble euro is more 6-8 than 8-12. I think 4-8 across central jersey is reasonable call for now given the ppossibility some is lost to taint and melting...and im not so sure the models are done waffling
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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18Z NAM ticking a bit to the east..crush job for everyone except south jersey coast....8-12

 
R

RUhasarrived

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Lee Goldberg just called 6 to 12 for virtually the entire state with bands of even higher amounts.
 
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