OT: Official Hurricane Irma Thread

[RU848789]

So, I asked - got a response from a weenie, but no red taggers, lol, and that thread is moving so fast that if someone doesn't answer in 15 minutes, that post is over a page behind. Regardless, Irma needs to start making the turn to the WNW, at least, in the next hour or two, to avoid significant landfall on Cuba (not just on the barrier islands) - will be interesting to see if that happens..

DT/WxRisk just posted an update, where he said that the turn to the NW then NNW is about to begin, based on the windfield around the storm showing west to east winds impinging on the storm. He also thinks that Irma has reganed Cat 5 status (160 mph) based on eyeballing the IR loops/convection. We'll see soon on both counts.

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/

 

[RU848789]

@RU4Real and @RU848789 :

Any chance it hits Cuba, slides across the lower part of the island and into the Caribbean?

Hitting Cuba, yes, many models have shown it skirting Cuba. Going across Cuba into the GOM? No way. Models are very good in the short term and no model shows even a hint of that.

 

[RU848789]

My parents are in Naples, still haven't left.

Have friends on Marco Island. Obviously not the same, but hoping for the best for everyone there and your folks in Naples.

Guys - seriously, if they're not in modern buildings built to withstand Cat winds and aren't out of the storm surge risk area, you should do whatever you can to have them at least go to a safe shelter if not evacuate completely. With Irma likely to make landfall close to SW FL, people in "regular" houses and/or in the flood zones (6-12' surge is expected in those areas) could be in the worst kind of trouble. There is still time to leave.

 

[rcube1994]

Seems like it hasnt turned as quickly as the models were saying, is it safe to say miami fort lauderdale area will be mostly spared at this point?

 

[rurichdog]

Mine are luckily up here now.

88 and 84.

Where in Naples?

Countryside Golf & CC area

 

[RU848789]

Cat 5 again, with 160 mph winds at 924 mbar. Gotta give DT/WxRisk some credit on that call - storm is looking healthier than it has in hours and the eye is just about on shore in Cuba - amazing. Track to come soon...

Edit: 11 pm track below. Another nudge about 10 miles to the west for the track, given that the storm is currently west of where it was supposed to be right now.

Edit: A better graphic with all the captions removed...

 

[e5fdny]

Countryside Golf & CC area

Mine are in Veronawalk across from Lely.

 

[RU848789]

Seems like it hasnt turned as quickly as the models were saying, is it safe to say miami fort lauderdale area will be mostly spared at this point?

They will likely be spared the catastrophic winds if the current forecast track verifies, meaning they'd likely get maybe 90-100 mph winds instead of 155 mph winds. However, the storm surge, at least for Miami, which is pretty far south, is still being forecast to be 5-10 feet, which will be catastrophic for many. The storm surge should diminish a bit as one goes further north on the east coast.

 

[FLKnight]

Son has been on the road from Tampa since 2pm. I-75 then I-10 and still has about 150 miles left. Traffic crawling the whole way, usually a 5.5 HR drive will most likely be 12 tonight.

This needs to stop moving west as it's starting to lean our way some. Any chance that this may stay over the gulf and cross big bend?

 

[RU848789]

Son has been on the road from Tampa since 2pm. I-75 then I-10 and still has about 150 miles left. Traffic crawling the whole way, usually a 5.5 HR drive will most likely be 12 tonight.

This needs to stop moving west as it's starting to lean our way some. Any chance that this may stay over the gulf and cross big bend?

Of course, there's some chance of it missing the Gulf Coast until it reaches the Tallahassee area, as the cone goes as far west as Appalachicola.

 

[RU848789]

One little discussed item: the storm will be slowing down during its trek up the Gulf Coast, as forecasts now show 12 mph forward speed (from just before landfall to maybe Tampa; it speeds up after that) vs. the 16 mph speed the models were indicating a day or two ago. That will make the horrible conditions last a bit longer everywhere.

 

[FLKnight]

Son has been on the road from Tampa since 2pm. I-75 then I-10 and still has about 150 miles left. Traffic crawling the whole way, usually a 5.5 HR drive will most likely be 12 tonight.

This needs to stop moving west as it's starting to lean our way some. Any chance that this may stay over the gulf and cross big bend?

Of course, there's some chance of it missing the Gulf Coast until it reaches the Tallahassee area, as the cone goes as far west as Appalachicola.

I guess chance was the wrong word as likelihood was more appropriate. Anyway, this is a facinating thread and hats off to you and Real for keeping this going.

 

[RUBigFrank]

some hope for weakening - as NHC says there will be shear:

There is an opportunity for Irma to re-intensity as it crosses the
warm waters of the Florida Straits. However, the large-scale
models forecast significant westerly shear developing at about
24 h, and it is unclear how much strengthening could occur before
then. The first part of the intensity forecast thus calls for
little change in strength through 36 h, and Irma is still expected
to be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and
the west coast of Florida. After that time, movement over land and
strong shear should cause steady weakening, with Irma eventually
decaying to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.

 

[RUaMoose_rivals]

This thing keeps moving west, New Orleans will be in the cross hairs before long.

 

[RU848789]

Irma defiinitely weakened some overnight, although the NHC still has the winds at 155 mph as of 5 am. However, TWC has reported max surface winds in the 120-125 mph range on the last 2 passes through the storm (NW and SE eyewalls) by the hurricane hunters, but not all of the storm quadrants have been sampled. Will be a dilemma for the NHC in terms of reporting such a huge drop in winds, if these numbers are corroborated on all of the passes.

Just imagine them downgrading this to a Cat 3 at 120 mph at 8 am, then the storm reintensifies to 150 mph before landfall. Many will likely let their guard down and perhaps not evacuate from the Keys or SW Florida and then get hammered if it reintensifies, which is quite possible when it moves towards the Keys tonight over very warm waters with low shear - and people some will never ever listen to the NHC/NWS ever again when told to evacuate. So hard to communicate risk and uncertainty well. A colleague/friend of mine wrote the linked article on risk communication around Irma.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...478688d23b4_story.html?utm_term=.961a82e92c2b

 

[RU4Real]

The 06z tropical models have a few more members offshore to the west. It looks like the westward trend is continuing and if the slightly offshore track were to verify it would be really, really bad news for Naples, Ft. Myers and the TB area.

 

[RU848789]

NHC 5 am track shifted a little bit west again. Right now the official NHC forecast has Irma hitting just east of Key West with 150 mph winds around 8 am on Sunday morning and then riding up the Gulf Coast, possibly making landfall near Naples (with winds still near 150 mph) or staying offshore and not making landfall until maybe Tampa with winds more like 130 mph, as some weakening is expected as the storm moves north, even if no landfall, due to increasing wind shear. Close call on Gulf Coast landfalls. Eventually, the storm rips through the central FL panhandle as a likely cat 1 hurricane, then most of Georgia and into AL/TN as a strong tropical storm.

Winds look like they might be lower right now (maybe 120-130 mph, based on current flights through the storm) than they were at 5 am, but no "official" change yet from the NHC. And even if the interaction with Cuba has weakened Irma somewhat, it's still an imposing storm and still has a great chance of strengthening again when it heads north from Cuba towards the Keys tonight over very warm waters with low shear, so the net effect may be minimal on the outcome, i.e., Irma could still reintensify back to 140-150 mph before landfall in the Keys. Hard to say.

Storm surges will be life threatening from the Gulf Coast (6-12') all the way around to Miami - even though the storm is not going to make a direct hit on Miami or the east coast of Florida, the storm is still huge and winds from the south will still pile water up in Biscayne Bay/Miami with 5-10' of surge still possible. Moderate storm surges will also still be seen on the rest of the east coast of Florida and GA/SC even with the storm over 100 miles away, due to strong winds (70-90 mph still possible on the east coast of FL) coming onto shore for hours. There will also be flooding rains of 10-15" in most of Florida (no Harvey, but still major rains) and tornadoes will be possible throughout Florida and into GA/SC.

P.S. I am glad I recommended to my dad in Vero to stay put until Friday and then decide, since it was looking like the storm was shifting west and I hated the idea of sending him across the state to Tampa only to be in a much worst situation and in shelter, since hotels were all booked. He'll now likely be fine in Vero. Hard to do that as a government, though, since if everyone waited until yesterday to evacuate, it would've been a mess/gridlock and that would've been tragic if the storm hit gridlocked traffic.

 

[RU848789]

NHC has lowered winds to 130 mph as of 8 am, as per Dr. Postell on TWC. He's also only been showing Euro model output today, saying its been "kicking butt" the entire storm.

 

[RU4Real]

It's almost time for me to head on over to the yellow lot, so I won't be visiting this thread until later tonight.

One last look at the GOES-16 Irma Floater, here, reveals that she's still interacting strongly with the northern coast of Cuba and, while Irma remains a vigorous storm, some of the refinement has been noticeably lost to the land interaction, as would be expected.

NHC's track remains just inshore on the western edge of Florida but as I noted in my last post the continued westward trend of the models in the <24 hour range suggests that the current, official, NHC tracks may still be too far to the east. Folks on Florida's west coast should be preparing to take the brunt of the storm.

Best of luck to all who are on the line.

 

[RU848789]

It's almost time for me to head on over to the yellow lot, so I won't be visiting this thread until later tonight.

One last look at the GOES-16 Irma Floater, here, reveals that she's still interacting strongly with the northern coast of Cuba and, while Irma remains a vigorous storm, some of the refinement has been noticeably lost to the land interaction, as would be expected.

NHC's track remains just inshore on the western edge of Florida but as I noted in my last post the continued westward trend of the models in the <24 hour range suggests that the current, official, NHC tracks may still be too far to the east. Folks on Florida's west coast should be preparing to take the brunt of the storm.

Best of luck to all who are on the line.

Same here - been a pleasure co-posting with you on this thread. Guessing Spanky was doing some moderating, since I've never seen a more amiable weather thread, lol.

As I said in my recent email to folks, if anyone in the Keys or the Gulf Coast of Florida up through the Tampa area hasn’t evacuated yet, there is still time and please consider doing so, as hurricane force winds are still several hours away from the Keys and 8+ hours away from the mainland - and the current 130 mph winds could still strengthen back up to 150 mph before landfall (hopefully not, but possible). Good luck to all in harm’s way.

 

[Retired711]

Irma defiinitely weakened some overnight, although the NHC still has the winds at 155 mph as of 5 am. However, TWC has reported max surface winds in the 120-125 mph range on the last 2 passes through the storm (NW and SE eyewalls) by the hurricane hunters, but not all of the storm quadrants have been sampled. Will be a dilemma for the NHC in terms of reporting such a huge drop in winds, if these numbers are corroborated on all of the passes.

Just imagine them downgrading this to a Cat 3 at 120 mph at 8 am, then the storm reintensifies to 150 mph before landfall. Many will likely let their guard down and perhaps not evacuate from the Keys or SW Florida and then get hammered if it reintensifies, which is quite possible when it moves towards the Keys tonight over very warm waters with low shear - and people some will never ever listen to the NHC/NWS ever again when told to evacuate. So hard to communicate risk and uncertainty well. A colleague/friend of mine wrote the linked article on risk communication around Irma.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...478688d23b4_story.html?utm_term=.961a82e92c2b

Here's a key passage from the article: As one emergency manager told us, “No matter what people did during [Hurricane] Sandy, whether they stayed or they evacuated, they told us, ‘I’m never going to do that again.’ ” There simply aren't any good choices.

 

[Retired711]

Same here - been a pleasure co-posting with you on this thread. Guessing Spanky was doing some moderating, since I've never seen a more amiable weather thread, lol.

As I said in my recent email to folks, if anyone in the Keys or the Gulf Coast of Florida up through the Tampa area hasn’t evacuated yet, there is still time and please consider doing so, as hurricane force winds are still several hours away from the Keys and 8+ hours away from the mainland - and the current 130 mph winds could still strengthen back up to 150 mph before landfall (hopefully not, but possible). Good luck to all in harm’s way.

I have a theory as to why this has been such an amiable thread. RU848789, could you initiate a private conversation with me when you have a chance? There's no urgency about it --keep monitoring the storm!

 

[JerseyGirl06]

Same here - been a pleasure co-posting with you on this thread. Guessing Spanky was doing some moderating, since I've never seen a more amiable weather thread, lol.

As I said in my recent email to folks, if anyone in the Keys or the Gulf Coast of Florida up through the Tampa area hasn’t evacuated yet, there is still time and please consider doing so, as hurricane force winds are still several hours away from the Keys and 8+ hours away from the mainland - and the current 130 mph winds could still strengthen back up to 150 mph before landfall (hopefully not, but possible). Good luck to all in harm’s way.

Looking like we're gonna take the direct hit now... hoping she drops to a cat 3 before that. We found the most compact place in the house for my husband and animals with the least windows and have started setting up supplies there. Evacuating, unless going to an already crowded shelter, isn't really and option now as roads are gridlocked and people are having a very hard time finding gas. Stores are closed so you can't get supplies, no one had plywood as of yesterday. So this is it. All we can do is hope for the best, hope our house holds up and that the winds weaken a little bit before she gets here.

 

[ldwnmas]

Looking like we're gonna take the direct hit now... hoping she drops to a cat 3 before that. We found the most compact place in the house for my husband and animals with the least windows and have started setting up supplies there. Evacuating, unless going to an already crowded shelter, isn't really and option now as roads are gridlocked and people are having a very hard time finding gas. Stores are closed so you can't get supplies, no one had plywood as of yesterday. So this is it. All we can do is hope for the best, hope our house holds up and that the winds weaken a little bit before she gets here.

Good luck

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Same here - been a pleasure co-posting with you on this thread. Guessing Spanky was doing some moderating, since I've never seen a more amiable weather thread, lol.

As I said in my recent email to folks, if anyone in the Keys or the Gulf Coast of Florida up through the Tampa area hasn’t evacuated yet, there is still time and please consider doing so, as hurricane force winds are still several hours away from the Keys and 8+ hours away from the mainland - and the current 130 mph winds could still strengthen back up to 150 mph before landfall (hopefully not, but possible). Good luck to all in harm’s way.

Thank you both Numbers and Real. You guys have done a great job with this thread. Much appreciated.

 

[ruready4somefootball_rivals]

For events like this and snow storms, I really miss the live remotes that The Weather Channel has. Fios dropping them for this piece of garbage Accu Weather really blows. When CNN has better coverage than a 24 hour weather station, it's time for FIOS to cave in and take back The Weather Channel.

 

[Armor and Sword]

For events like this and snow storms, I really miss the live remotes that The Weather Channel has. Fios dropping them for this piece of garbage Accu Weather really blows. When CNN has better coverage than a 24 hour weather station, it's time for FIOS to cave in and take back The Weather Channel.

The problem with Accuweather is that they repeat the same forecast over and over again and only go live for an event like Irma, which they did last night. They seem to have a lot of turnover on studio mets, unless Accuweather serves as a broadcast meteorology internship thing for Penn State Atmospheric Science majors, I dunno. TWC is also on Direct TV Now but not on the basic package and Fubu TV but I can't justify paying $35 a month for one channel, and I'm not ready to cut the cord yet.

 

[T2Kplus20]

For those that love St. John, two of the main news Facebook pages are up and running - lots of extension damage, but we have seen worse on the other islands:

https://www.facebook.com/NewsofStJohn/
and
https://www.facebook.com/St-John-On-Island-Times-397819033659385/

 

[MGSA99]

It's a bust for SC. Waiting for the governor to cancel the state of emergency.

 

[fezo]

Of course, there's some chance of it missing the Gulf Coast until it reaches the Tallahassee area, as the cone goes as far west as Appalachicola.

Man, that would be the last thing Appalachicola needs. They're the ones that get the hurricanes Tampa misses.

 

[fezo]

fezo,

Didn't you write "Any thoughts would be appreciated ?"

Since I live in SW FL about 5 miles from the Gulf I'm starting to think about where I go when Irma comes thru here on Sunday.

Got any suggestions for me ?

Grab your beer and run!

Really, just get the hell out. If getting north is impossible, try northeast - whatever you can do to get away from the strongest parts. Be prepared to sleep on a cot in a gym somewhere....

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

At the game. Any new updates on path?

 

[RUaMoose_rivals]

It's a bust for SC. Waiting for the governor to cancel the state of emergency.

It will be a bust overall relatively speaking in my humble opinion. The powerful NE quadrant will be over land greatly reducing its impact. Not saying it's not a dangerous storm just not up to the hype we've been hearing the last 4, 5 days

 

[RUBigFrank]

Hey forreal where in yellow are you?

 

[Finster Baby]

Now that the shite storm at HP Stadium is over , I need some hurricane updates?

 

[RU Diesel07110]

At this time, your condo has a better chance of winning the lottery than taking Irma head-on. This could, of course, change. So stay tuned.



Right now Irma doesn't have much room to grow in terms of intensity. There are theoretical limits that define the upper ends of cyclone potential. Irma, right now, is very close to the all-time records for pressure and wind speed.

Where she does have room to grow is with regard to... well, growing. She can get bigger. The radius of hurricane force winds can expand, as can the radius of tropical storm force winds. There's a lot of reason to believe that if Irma avoids any significant interaction with the Cuban landmass, this will happen.

Uhhh how about now, storm bouncing more to west with evert update

 

[Armor and Sword]

Now that the shite storm at HP Stadium is over , I need some hurricane updates?

Storm surge from the 2017 football schedule is 20 feet. Ash is about 6 feet tall.

 

[RU4Real]

Uhhh how about now, storm bouncing more to west with evert update

I'm not sure what you mean by "how bout now". We've been talking about the westward trend for the last 24+ hours. And it's noteworthy that as of 8PM there's very little movement in the official NHC track, which runs right along the west coast of Florida.

At this time the eye of Irma is pulling free of the Cuban coast and the storm has started to move northwest. Irma is, for the moment, a Cat 3 storm with max sustained winds of 120 mph. Heavy squalls are moving across south Florida, some of which contain embedded tornadoes. Some strengthening is expected prior to Irma making landfall in the general vicinity of Naples.

 

[RU Diesel07110]

At this time, your condo has a better chance of winning the lottery than taking Irma head-on. This could, of course, change. So stay tuned.



Right now Irma doesn't have much room to grow in terms of intensity. There are theoretical limits that define the upper ends of cyclone potential. Irma, right now, is very close to the all-time records for pressure and wind speed.

Where she does have room to grow is with regard to... well, growing. She can get bigger. The radius of hurricane force winds can expand, as can the radius of tropical storm force winds. There's a lot of reason to believe that if Irma avoids any significant interaction with the Cuban landmass, this will happen.

The winning the lottery how about now

 

[Finster Baby]

Damn, my buddy is in Key West right now, I was hoping it would keep going west. Eff!