OT: Official Hurricane Irma Thread

[RU848789]

In case anyone is curious, Jose is about to come close to a direct hit on the same Leeward Islands that Irma destroyed, like Barbuda, Anguilla, etc - it's packing 150 mph winds and will likely have 135 mph winds when it comes closest to the far NE islands in the chain. However, Jose is heading NW, so it wont' hit the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico that hard. And there's hurricane Katia, with 105 mph winds spinning in the Bay of Campeche and about to make landfall in Mexico. Three serious hurricanes at the same time is pretty impressive.

 

[Rutgers8086_rivals]

Richard Thompson did a great song like that called Keep Your Distance. We kind of drifted apart then my grad school just once sent an alumni directory and I called her and we caught up and it was good. We were going to continue but never did. I was down on New Year's for a wedding in Tallahassee and when I saw her town's name on the exit sign I said what the hell. Got the voicemail but she called back. Not really talking - just an occasional text. I'm sure she thinks I'm worrying too much. I think she's not worrying enough.

So, I should hop in my car, go right into a hurricane, risk life and limb and my wife divorcing me only to find that her husband beat me there or they both drowned? I thought you were a nice guy..... Her husband's bigger than me. I've never met him but almost everybody is.....

This really deserves its own thread.

 

[RU in IM]

Also, Irma looks to be much more of a wind event than a flood event, though I'm not dismissing that flooding is possible. Wind is not excluded on most homeowners policies like flood is.

Depends if you have wind and hail insurance which covers "named" storms.

 

[RU4Real]

I wonder what kind of damage could occur to Disney World. I don't think they've ever been clobbered before. There are obviously more important things to be worried about, but I was curious.

I think it's been noted elsewhere in the thread (and definitely discussed on AMWx) that all of the structures at WDW have been built to withstand Cat 5 winds, including the attractions. They'll get disruptions - poles, trees and signs down - but will likely be able to ride out most anything.

My cousins rode out a storm at WDW, intentionally, some years back. Forget which storm it was.

 

[ClassOf02v.2]

Depends if you have wind and hail insurance which covers "named" storms.

For sure. But it's much more common to have wind/hail coverage than flood coverage. Now the wind deductible? Those can be all
over the map.

 

[MulletCork]

Ugh as someone with friends on Marco Island and as a visitor to the island several times a year for the past decade or so I feel for these people and can't even bear to look anymore at the updates

 

[fezo]

Fernindina - I assume close to the ocean, I'm in similar situation and am going 10 miles inland to a hotel. She'll never find one now.

FSU - probably safe enough right there. My youngest didn't want to get locked in hotel so is bugging out with friends at FSU. Dorms there would be fine.

Right on the beach. She's maybe two blocks off the ocean. One and a half one blocks...... one block....

 

[Knightmoves]

Richard Thompson did a great song like that called Keep Your Distance. We kind of drifted apart then my grad school just once sent an alumni directory and I called her and we caught up and it was good. We were going to continue but never did. I was down on New Year's for a wedding in Tallahassee and when I saw her town's name on the exit sign I said what the hell. Got the voicemail but she called back. Not really talking - just an occasional text. I'm sure she thinks I'm worrying too much. I think she's not worrying enough.

So, I should hop in my car, go right into a hurricane, risk life and limb and my wife divorcing me only to find that her husband beat me there or they both drowned? I thought you were a nice guy..... Her husband's bigger than me. I've never met him but almost everybody is.....

fezo,

Didn't you write "Any thoughts would be appreciated ?"

Since I live in SW FL about 5 miles from the Gulf I'm starting to think about where I go when Irma comes thru here on Sunday.

Got any suggestions for me ?

 

[Retired711]

Right on the beach. She's maybe two blocks off the ocean. One and a half one blocks...... one block....

If I recall correctly, the town is north of Jacksonville, which is of course on the Atlantic coast. As time goes on, it appears more and more that this storm will be toughest on the Gulf Coast, the other side. Your friend should be careful, and prepare of course, but your friend has a chance of not being wiped out.

 

[LevaosLectures]

My cousins in boca didn't evacuate. Ugh.

 

[RU85inFla]

Fernindina - I assume close to the ocean, I'm in similar situation and am going 10 miles inland to a hotel. She'll never find one now.

FSU - probably safe enough right there. My youngest didn't want to get locked in hotel so is bugging out with friends at FSU. Dorms there would be fine.

Right on the beach. She's maybe two blocks off the ocean. One and a half one blocks...... one block....

She is 30 minutes from me. I have an 82 year old mother in law so I'm leaving. After Matthew I'm leaving more often than I would in the past. Her house is not likely to get blown away. She is unlikely to get flooding. She might get a tree limb on the roof.

 

[MorrisAsh]

My in-laws have their year-round house on an island strip called Gasparilla Island in the unprotected Gulf due West of Ft Myers. Island is probably a mile wide. They're in for a world of hurt but are fully insured.

 

[RU848789]

Thankfully, I helped convince a couple of my very good friends, who live in Naples, and Sarasota, respectively to evacuate today - as of yesterday, they were staying, but I posted some hellacious stats, tracks and pix on their walls and they had a ton of other people then telling them to get out. Social media shaming, lol.

 

[RU4Real]

The "maybe, maybe not" interaction with Cuba is going to be so very critical with regard to what happens in Florida. Right now everyone is just kind of watching and waiting to see which of the progged tracks Irma takes. I near miss on the north coast of the island would allow Irma to maintain her strength, or even get a bit stronger, over the next 24 hours. If she winds up dragging the better part of her core across Cuba then you would expect to see some significant decay, as well as some impact on track.

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

Guess I picked the wrong year to buy a condo on the Fort Lauderdale beach.

 

[RU848789]

The "maybe, maybe not" interaction with Cuba is going to be so very critical with regard to what happens in Florida. Right now everyone is just kind of watching and waiting to see which of the progged tracks Irma takes. I near miss on the north coast of the island would allow Irma to maintain her strength, or even get a bit stronger, over the next 24 hours. If she winds up dragging the better part of her core across Cuba then you would expect to see some significant decay, as well as some impact on track.

I've found the conversation about Cuba to be interesting on American. Some feel it should weaken Irma substantially, while others don't. The NHC certainly doesn't think Irma will be affected much, although if Irma goes deeper into Cuba than just skirting the coast, I'd think she'd weaken more.

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity.

 

[RU4Real]

Guess I picked the wrong year to buy a condo on the Fort Lauderdale beach.

The westward-trending guidance is good news for the Gold Coast. NHC now puts the chances of hurricane force winds in Miami at 38%, Ft. Lauderdale would be lower than that.

 

[RUschool]

A friend just brought a home in Naples 4 months ago.

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

We debated Naples and east coast.

 

[RU4Real]

I've found the conversation about Cuba to be interesting on American. Some feel it should weaken Irma substantially, while others don't. The NHC certainly doesn't think Irma will be affected much, although if Irma goes deeper into Cuba than just skirting the coast, I'd think she'd weaken more.

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity.

I'm actually surprised at that debate (although I'm not wading into it, because it's just not worth it).

The people who are making the point that "well, the high terrain is on the southeast coast of the island and so it won't disrupt the core of the storm that much" are right, at least with their understanding of basic geography. What they're not saying - in fact, what nobody is saying - is that Cuba is a pretty big island. It is, basically, the size of Florida. Prolonged exposure to that much land is going to have an effect on Irma's convective cycle.

 

[RedSpartan]

Not much change in the 8 pm update. Looks like the gulf coast may be in for it. My in-laws flew back to Bradenton yesterday. They think they're prepared because they've brought their outdoor furniture inside. :flushed:

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Any PERFECT STORM setup here between Irma and Jose?

That is.. that famous "Perfect Storm" thing in the north Atlantic they made the movie about,..that was a ship being caught between two storms like that.. iirc. Are we going to see that setup near, say the Carolinas.. Irma on teh coast and Jose offshore?

Those day by day charts above.. what is the source of those.. I'd like to take a crack at overlaying the predicted paths by day of both storms.

 

[RU4Real]

Any PERFECT STORM setup here between Irma and Jose?

That is.. that famous "Perfect Storm" thing in the north Atlantic they made the movie about,..that was a ship being caught between two storms like that.. iirc. Are we going to see that setup near, say the Carolinas.. Irma on teh coast and Jose offshore?

Those day by day charts above.. what is the source of those.. I'd like to take a crack at overlaying the predicted paths by day of both storms.

Those are NHC graphics, you can get them here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Tropical cyclones are subject to something called the Fujiwhara Effect, and will begin to orbit each other within a range of about 870 miles. The Perfect Storm wasn't two tropical cyclones, it was one tropical cyclone (Hurricane Grace) being absorbed into a seriously hefty northeastern low. That's why they were able to assimilate so easily.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Those are NHC graphics, you can get them here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Tropical cyclones are subject to something called the Fujiwhara Effect, and will begin to orbit each other within a range of about 870 miles. The Perfect Storm wasn't two tropical cyclones, it was one tropical cyclone (Hurricane Grace) being absorbed into a seriously hefty northeastern low. That's why they were able to assimilate so easily.

Looks like before Jose hooks.. on Monday.. they will be closest. Still far apart.

 

[RU in IM]

I just got the news that there is a mandatory evacuation in Hilton Head; surprised given current projections. Looks like a miss, and if it does track more east, it should be down to a cat 1

 

[RU848789]

Not much change in the 8 pm update. Looks like the gulf coast may be in for it. My in-laws flew back to Bradenton yesterday. They think they're prepared because they've brought their outdoor furniture inside. :flushed:

Actually, the NHC only updates the track at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm and 11 pm. For the intermediate advisories, they simply update the current position/winds, but the rest of the track is the same as the 5 pm track. Once in a great while, like when Irma went suddenly from 150 to 175 mph winds on Tuesday morning, they actually did a full update/discussion at 8 am that morning.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA.shtml?

 

[pmvon]

Question for Real and #'s. NOAA data indicates that the number of hurricanes have not increased over the last century but the intensity of the storms has increased along with sea level temperatures, though there appears to have been a disconnect recently. Question: Is the data from prior periods reliable given the obvious technological advances, in your view?

Thanks for keeping us informed.

 

[RU848789]

Looks like before Jose hooks.. on Monday.. they will be closest. Still far apart.

Yes, but the Fujiwhara Effect only works for 2 storms in the open ocean and Irma will be on land on Monday and not subject to that effect.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Yes, but the Fujiwhara Effect only works for 2 storms in the open ocean and Irma will be on land on Monday and not subject to that effect.

TY.. if projections are correct.. of course.. it will probably be in Texas by then!

 

[RU848789]

I just got the news that there is a mandatory evacuation in Hilton Head; surprised given current projections. Looks like a miss, and if it does track more east, it should be down to a cat 1

Surprising to me. By the time Irma reaches the FL/GA line, it's going to be just a strong tropical storm or at most a minimal hurricane (and weakening rapidly), with HH over 100 miles NE of the track. Yes, they'll get some 30-45 mph winds, 4-6" of rain and heavy seas with some modest storm surge, but I have a hard time imagining needing to evacuate - maybe they're just being very cautious.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...hs&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=185&map_y=157#.WbNEq7J95nK

 

[RU4Real]

Question for Real and #'s. NOAA data indicates that the number of hurricanes have not increased over the last century but the intensity of the storms has increased along with sea level temperatures, though there appears to have been a disconnect recently. Question: Is the data from prior periods reliable given the obvious technological advances, in your view?

Thanks for keeping us informed.

I think you have to look at the older (pre-electronic, if you will) data as an element in a potential trend. But to your point, you also have to not choose the "100 year old storm record" argument as the hill you're willing to die on. Data was restricted to temperature, wind and pressure and it was collected by shore stations and lighthouses - consistently and accurately - and ships at sea - yeah, not so much.

I've read hundreds of years worth of sailing history. If it's 1890 and you're 30 miles off of Hatteras in a 240 foot three-masted clipper in 40 foot seas and hurricane winds the very last thing you're gonna care about is the precise recording of barometric pressure. Some of that stuff is unquestionably lost to transcription error.

I think there's little question that warmer ocean temps are going to fuel fiercer storms. It's pretty fundamental science. And yeah, the oceans are getting warmer. I think, though, that we don't fully understand all of what that means, yet.

 

[RU848789]

I'm actually surprised at that debate (although I'm not wading into it, because it's just not worth it).

The people who are making the point that "well, the high terrain is on the southeast coast of the island and so it won't disrupt the core of the storm that much" are right, at least with their understanding of basic geography. What they're not saying - in fact, what nobody is saying - is that Cuba is a pretty big island. It is, basically, the size of Florida. Prolonged exposure to that much land is going to have an effect on Irma's convective cycle.

One would think so. I actually meant to ask on American whether what we're really seeing is not so much that interaction with Cuba isn't weakening Irma, per se, but that Irma is in such a favorable environment for strengthening (low shear and very warm SSTs) that Cuba interactions are more likely just preventing that strengthening, i.e., if there were no Cuba, maybe Irma would be heading back up to 185 mph winds.

 

[RU4Real]

One would think so. I actually meant to ask on American whether what we're really seeing is not so much that interaction with Cuba isn't weakening Irma, per se, but that Irma is in such a favorable environment for strengthening (low shear and very warm SSTs) that Cuba interactions are more likely just preventing that strengthening, i.e., if there were no Cuba, maybe Irma would be heading back up to 185 mph winds.

The way I look at it is this... The storm's intake gets largely shut down in any given band for the duration it's over land. So for the storm, as a whole, to strengthen the replenishment over water would have to not only accelerate but would have to accelerate at a rate that exceeds the onshore decay rate. That's an impressive feat.

 

[RU4Real]

The shorter range tropical models are coming in west, again, at 0z.

 

[Turn234]

Speaking of Jim Cantore, he retweeted this:

 

[RU848789]

One would think so. I actually meant to ask on American whether what we're really seeing is not so much that interaction with Cuba isn't weakening Irma, per se, but that Irma is in such a favorable environment for strengthening (low shear and very warm SSTs) that Cuba interactions are more likely just preventing that strengthening, i.e., if there were no Cuba, maybe Irma would be heading back up to 185 mph winds.

So, I asked - got a response from a weenie, but no red taggers, lol, and that thread is moving so fast that if someone doesn't answer in 15 minutes, that post is over a page behind. Regardless, Irma needs to start making the turn to the WNW, at least, in the next hour or two, to avoid significant landfall on Cuba (not just on the barrier islands) - will be interesting to see if that happens..

 

[rurichdog]

My cousins in boca didn't evacuate. Ugh.

My parents are in Naples, still haven't left.

 

[e5fdny]

@RU4Real and @RU848789 :

Any chance it hits Cuba, slides across the lower part of the island and into the Caribbean?

 

[e5fdny]

My parents are in Naples, still haven't left.

Mine are luckily up here now.

88 and 84.

Where in Naples?

 

[MulletCork]

Have friends on Marco Island. Obviously not the same, but hoping for the best for everyone there and your folks in Naples.