OT: Official Hurricane Irma Thread

[RU4Real]

Soooo I might not have a boring calm day in St. Pete?
My hospital has already said they're going to initiate that disaster plan either Saturday at 6pm or Sunday morning... meaning me and half the staff go in and stay until it's over. With this western shift, it just got a little more scary. All we can do is be as prepared as possible. Hoping our block construction, double paned windows and newish roof can handle it. All the updates are awesome! Y'all were the best with blizzard predictions up north, thanks for now doing great hurricane predictions as well! A few days ago when my husband and I were trying to figure Irma out my husband said "just go on the message board."

I still think your biggest problem, as it appears now, is having to deal with all the Gold Coast evacuees. Your EDs are gonna be a hoot and a half.

My cousin's kid lives in one of the evac'd areas of Pinellas County. The only place she has to go with her husband and kid is my cousin's house - in Deltona. That's insane.

 

[JerseyGirl06]

I still think your biggest problem, as it appears now, is having to deal with all the Gold Coast evacuees. Your EDs are gonna be a hoot and a half.

My cousin's kid lives in one of the evac'd areas of Pinellas County. The only place she has to go with her husband and kid is my cousin's house - in Deltona. That's insane.

The ER list was already a joke when I left work tonight, it's only gonna get worse! We were already told to keep a hallway clear of patients so that we have rooms to sleep in while we're there. We'll see how that works in the next 2 days.
And Pinellas county is only evacuating the worst flood zone and mobile homes right now. I'm zone D, which is like a 26 foot storm surge. I feel ok about that, still just nervous about the wind.

 

[RU4Real]

The ER list was already a joke when I left work tonight, it's only gonna get worse! We were already told to keep a hallway clear of patients so that we have rooms to sleep in while we're there. We'll see how that works in the next 2 days.
And Pinellas county is only evacuating the worst flood zone and mobile homes right now. I'm zone D, which is like a 26 foot storm surge. I feel ok about that, still just nervous about the wind.

By tomorrow this time we should be able to see some pretty good wind maps. The confidence in the track will be higher so those products will be a little closer to reality. I like the track as it's currently modeled - and the NHC track predictions have been really good through this event - so if it sticks, I think you're looking at a very occasional gust to hurricane force, at worst. No picnic, but not the worst you've ever seen.

 

[RU848789]

Grasping at straws a bit here, but if Irma is going to make landfall somewhere in South Florida, which is looking almost like a given now, the ultimate "lucky" track would be if it went right up the center of the peninsula. That would keep Irma about 50 miles from Miami and maybe 30 miles from Naples (on the weaker side), which would be enough to probably limit catastrophic winds from hitting any big coastal cities (storm surge would still be pretty bad on the east coast, but not as bad as a more easterly track).

This kind of track would also weaken Irma the most, as it puts the most % of Irma's circulation over land and would likely weaken Irma to Cat 2 or so by the time it reached the biggest city in the center of the state, Orlando. Sure, there would be absolute devastation within 25 miles of the storm center in either direction, but those areas are much more sparsely populated. Since out to sea doesn't look very possible, this might be the next best thing.

 

[RU848789]

Seriously scary model consensus, so far, on tonight's 0Z model runs (using 7 pm EDT initial conditions). Note that this doesn't include the major global models yet, as they take longer to run, but it does include a host of regional and hurricane models that tend to perform better within 48 hours or so, so they're coming close to the time where they're more useful.

 

[JerseyGirl06]

Seriously scary model consensus, so far, on tonight's 0Z model runs (using 7 pm EDT initial conditions). Note that this doesn't include the major global models yet, as they take longer to run, but it does include a host of regional and hurricane models that tend to perform better within 48 hours or so, so they're coming close to the time where they're more useful.

That's looking a little better for me, I'll take it! It's the Euro model that keeps trending west, right? I was at work all day and people said that Irma trended 100 miles west, I thought that was a bit extreme...

 

[Scarlet dollar]

Grasping at straws a bit here, but if Irma is going to make landfall somewhere in South Florida, which is looking almost like a given now, the ultimate "lucky" track would be if it went right up the center of the peninsula. That would keep Irma about 50 miles from Miami and maybe 30 miles from Naples (on the weaker side), which would be enough to probably limit catastrophic winds from hitting any big coastal cities (storm surge would still be pretty bad on the east coast, but not as bad as a more easterly track).

This kind of track would also weaken Irma the most, as it puts the most % of Irma's circulation over land and would likely weaken Irma to Cat 2 or so by the time it reached the biggest city in the center of the state, Orlando. Sure, there would be absolute devastation within 25 miles of the storm center in either direction, but those areas are much more sparsely populated. Since out to sea doesn't look very possible, this might be the next best thing.

If the storm goes up the middle, would it be able to feed off the Everglades?

 

[Zak57]

Is it true that if you leave Broward at this point they are estimating it will take 99 hours to reach FL/GA border?

 

[e5fdny]

Seriously scary model consensus, so far, on tonight's 0Z model runs (using 7 pm EDT initial conditions). Note that this doesn't include the major global models yet, as they take longer to run, but it does include a host of regional and hurricane models that tend to perform better within 48 hours or so, so they're coming close to the time where they're more useful.

Well after looking at the blue track, if I lived in Everglades City or Chokolskee I'd steal Boone's line from Animal House and be....LEAVING!

 

[Zak57]

I foresee some very difficult questions about how the city of Miami was allowed to grow in the manner that it has, in the last 20 years.

Probably a great topic for another thread but how could anyone stop urban growth as long the money flows in?

 

[RU848789]

Another sobering thought. Forecasts of intensity are much less accurate than track forecasts. What if Irma doesn't weaken to 150 mph at landfall, as currently projected? I know it'll interact a bit with Cuba with some of the circulation over land, but it's also going over some of the warmest waters (near 90F) on the planet right now. I can't even imagine 175 mph winds at landfall in South Florida (150 mph is bad enough).

Keep in mind that wind damage/force is not linear with wind speed - it's an exponential function (cubic). Therefore, a 150 mph wind is 20% stronger than a 125 mph wind. but the destructive power of a 150 mph wind compared to a 125 mph wind is actually 73% greater (20% more is actually 1.2X and 1.2 cubed is 1.73 or 73% more). For example, Hurricane Andrew’s sustained winds of 165 mph were 160% more powerful than Hurricane Katrina’s sustained winds of 120 mph at coastal Mississippi.

http://hurricanescience.org/society/impacts/windsatlandfall/

 

[RU848789]

11 pm update drops the winds from 175 mph to 165 mph, which is some good news. Right after I asked my question about whether weakening is a given, lol. Track looks pretty similar on TV, but the site doesn't appear updated yet.

Edit: The 11 pm NHC advisory is up: winds down to 165 mph, from 175 mph, which is good news, and the track is nearly identical for landfall near the bottom center of the FL peninsula (25-35 miles SW of Miami) up through about the Orlando area and then the track has been shifted a bit westward from that towards central GA rather than coastal GA.

 

[JerseyGirl06]

Is it true that if you leave Broward at this point they are estimating it will take 99 hours to reach FL/GA border?

I've heard that it's taking at least 3x as long as normal to get out of Florida. I heard it took people around 12 hours to get from Orlando area to the border

 

[JerseyGirl06]

11 pm update drops the winds from 175 mph to 165 mph, which is some good news. Right after I asked my question about whether weakening is a given, lol. Track looks pretty similar on TV, but the site doesn't appear updated yet.

Please, keep updating me. Although I'm destined to live at work for the weekend, it would also be nice to know when the storm's gonna break and I can safely be relieved and leave work

 

[RU848789]

Well, this doesn't seem quite right: FSU developed the superensemble hurricane forecast model using, in part, federal dollars, then sold the technology to WeatherPredict, a private company, which now won't share the model output data with the NHC. Putting lives at risk, potentially.

http://www.theledger.com/news/20060...or-weather-agencies-meteorologists-frustrated

 

[e5fdny]

Did anybody see this on when the wind is supposed to arrive...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/215356.shtml?mltoa34#contents

 

[RUBigFrank]

Here is the 2 AM cone- track seems set - no deviation from prior projections.

 

[RU848789]

NHC 5 am advisory is out and Irma is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, resulting in weakening below Cat 5 to Cat 4 for the first time in almost 72 hours (since 8 am Tuesday), with winds now 155 mph and expected to stay at that level until landfall. That's only a 5 mph drop from the 160 mph winds since 2 am, so just because it's now Cat 4 doesn't mean it weakened more than a tad and hopefully the change to Cat 4 status doesn't make anyone take this deadly storm any less seriously. Updated track not changed much, as per the graphic below.

The 0Z models from tonight (see below) are pretty tightly clustered with Irma coming up near the center/eastern half of the FL peninsula, but the envelope of potential tracks still includes everywhere from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast of FL. The Euro, the best model in accuracy scores throughout Irma's history, has Irma coming ashore somewhere around the Central Keys (Marathon) and then hitting the Everglades National Park and running up the center of the peninsula.

Winds are expected to be around 150 mph at landfall Saturday evening/Sunday morning (and even around 110 mph as it reaches the Orlando area), with 7-10 foot storm surges, and 10-15" of rain and potential tornadoes, especially NE of the storm's center. Damage is likely to be catastrophic anywhere within 30-50 miles of the storm's track, which could include most of South Florida if it runs up the center of the peninsula.

There is a chance Irma grazes the coast of Cuba or comes very close, either of which could weaken Irma a bit vs. what is forecast. On the flip side, Irma will be traveling over the warmest waters on the planet from Cuba to Florida iwth temps near 90F, which should preclude too much weakening.

.

 

[RUBigFrank]

The turn northward seems critical as it plays into that 50 mile differential in the projected landfall. Hate to say but #'s "best" to expected path is the buzzsaw up the middle of the state.

 

[RU848789]

Expected rainfall amounts for the storm. Generally 7-12" in most of Florida with 10-15" amounts on the NE side of the storm, i.e., the eastern half of South/Central Florida. Nowhere near Harvey level rains and while storm surge and winds are bigger risks than rainfall with Irma, still some major flooding from rains is possible.

 

[Knight Shift]

NHC 5 am advisory is out and Irma is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, resulting in weakening below Cat 5 to Cat 4 for the first time in almost 72 hours (since 8 am Tuesday), with winds now 155 mph and expected to stay at that level until landfall. That's only a 5 mph drop from the 160 mph winds since 2 am, so just because it's now Cat 4 doesn't mean it weakened more than a tad and hopefully the change to Cat 4 status doesn't make anyone take this deadly storm any less seriously. Updated track not changed much, as per the graphic below.

The 0Z models from tonight (see below) are pretty tightly clustered with Irma coming up near the center/eastern half of the FL peninsula, but the envelope of potential tracks still includes everywhere from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast of FL. The Euro, the best model in accuracy scores throughout Irma's history, has Irma coming ashore somewhere around the Central Keys (Marathon) and then hitting the Everglades National Park and running up the center of the peninsula.

Winds are expected to be around 150 mph at landfall Saturday evening/Sunday morning (and even around 110 mph as it reaches the Orlando area), with 7-10 foot storm surges, and 10-15" of rain and potential tornadoes, especially NE of the storm's center. Damage is likely to be catastrophic anywhere within 30-50 miles of the storm's track, which could include most of South Florida if it runs up the center of the peninsula.

There is a chance Irma grazes the coast of Cuba or comes very close, either of which could weaken Irma a bit vs. what is forecast. On the flip side, Irma will be traveling over the warmest waters on the planet from Cuba to Florida iwth temps near 90F, which should preclude too much weakening.

.

Downgrade to Cat. 4. Bust!



(....sarcasm).

 

[RU85inFla]

Hurricane Irma? Caulk? Oh then you should be fine.

(I'm kidding. Just made me laugh. Seriously good luck and be safe)

Last hurricane I learned 2 things. If the wind is strong enough, water will move upwards on the outside wall and find entry points. The second thing is that wind damage insurance has a 10% of the value of your house deductible.

 

[Knight Shift]

Last hurricane I learned 2 things. If the wind is strong enough, water will move upwards on the outside wall and find entry points. The second thing is that wind damage insurance has a 10% of the value of your house deductible.

Good luck to you. Florida is a beautiful state, but personally, I could never live there and deal with the stress/problems of hurricanes. I'll shovel snow in the winter until I am dead.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Last hurricane I learned 2 things. If the wind is strong enough, water will move upwards on the outside wall and find entry points. The second thing is that wind damage insurance has a 10% of the value of your house deductible.

Was denied an insurance claim back in 92- wind knocked out the power to the condo complex in Monmouth Beach. With the power out the sump pumps failed, and then flooded the boiler. NO heat for months. Ins. co. denied the loss of use claim stating flood damage not wind damage..

Point being claims can be tricky to negotiate - play hard and use a lawyer if needed.

 

[RUBigFrank]

some hope for weakening:

from NHC
First, some
additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement,
followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes. Second, the
ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the
coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast.
If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along
the later parts of the track.

 

[MGSA99]

If the current path holds or moved even further west, my area may be spared the worst of it and all we get is nothing worse than your typical summer thunderstorm.

 

[RU4Real]

This is about the time when I will typically start paying more attention to the NHC track, as those guys are pretty good in the <48 hour range. It would appear as though they're buying into the track up the spine of the Florida peninsula which, as was mentioned earlier in the thread, might be a best case scenario (the unlikely total miss notwithstanding). The worst of the storm avoids the most populated areas on both sides and Orlando - the first major population center that Irma would encounter - would likely only see a Cat 2. I've been through that, in the central Florida area, a few times. It's a thing, but it's not a really big thing. Power outages would be the real problem, flood damage would be minimal.

We'll see how this solution holds up through the day's model runs.

 

[e5fdny]

Good luck to you. Florida is a beautiful state, but personally, I could never live there and deal with the stress/problems of hurricanes. I'll shovel snow in the winter until I am dead.

But that shoveling could hasten your demise too.

I couldn't be there all the time either but being down there when it's the dead of winter up here is a nice option. I know the lifestyle has added years to my parents lives.

 

[spas89]

Question for the experts my son is at fsu in Tallahassee leaving with some friends originally were going to Montgomery Alabama but now have decided to go to Panama City. Other kids parents thinks that's far enough west but closer to the Gulf makes no sense to me. Thoughts?

 

[Skull83]

The 11 a.m. National Hurricane Center Irma Forecast Discussion, I'll leave it to numbers and RU4Real to analyze:

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes
indicate that Irma's intensity remains at 130 kt, although this
value could be 5 kt higher or lower. The central pressure has been
oscillating around 927 mb.

The environment continues to be favorable for Irma to maintain its
category 4 status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles
could result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours.
Nevertheless, the NHC forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a
category 4 hurricane. Thereafter, interaction with land and an
increase in shear should induce gradual weakening.

Plane, satellite and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that the eye of
Irma is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 12
kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24
hours. After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of
the subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and
northward. This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still
uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus
on the exact track of the center. The new NHC forecast was adjusted
just a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and
the HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very
close to each other.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will
continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards to the Bahamas through Saturday. Hurricane conditions will
spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the
adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is likely to make landfall in Florida as a dangerous major
hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of
the state regardless of the exact track of the center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. In particular, the threat
of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of
Florida has increased, and 6 to 12 feet of inundation above ground
level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening
situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to
protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation
instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 4 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida peninsula Saturday through
Monday. The highest amounts are expected over the eastern Florida
peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma will likely bring periods of
heavy rain to much of Georgia, South Carolina, and western North
Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are
more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from
Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 75.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.8N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.7N 80.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.0N 81.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1200Z 29.3N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 34.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1200Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

[RU4Real]

There's been some movement in the track guidance as of 11AM. The official NHC guidance is now left of previous because Irma is now forecasted to interact with the Cuban landmass. This will weaken the storm somewhat, but it will also increase the chances that Irma's turn to the north is actually more like a turn to the NNW. Marathon Key is now in the bullseye for the FRQ with the storm tracking just left of the center of the peninsula, headed for south-central Georgia.

If this trend continues and if the track verifies, the Tampa area is now under the gun.

So keep prepping, folks. It might get interesting in Pinellas County, yet.

 

[Knight Shift]

There's been some movement in the track guidance as of 11AM. The official NHC guidance is now left of previous because Irma is now forecasted to interact with the Cuban landmass. This will weaken the storm somewhat, but it will also increase the chances that Irma's turn to the north is actually more like a turn to the NNW. Marathon Key is now in the bullseye for the FRQ with the storm tracking just left of the center of the peninsula, headed for south-central Georgia.

If this trend continues and if the track verifies, the Tampa area is now under the gun.

So keep prepping, folks. It might get interesting in Pinellas County, yet.

FRQ?

 

[RU4Real]

FRQ?

No RFQ for Tampa, for now. Still on the left side of the center of circulation.

Naples, however, is now under a hurricane warning as of 11AM.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Is this cone change to the west better?

seems it may be a "somewhat" weaker storm with wind coming off the Florida land mass - and minimal tidal surge? Northwest storm quadrant coming of land seems to be better placed- thoughts?

 

[RU4Real]

Is this cone change to the west better?

seems it may be a "somewhat" weaker storm with wind coming off the Florida land mass - and minimal tidal surge? Northwest storm quadrant coming of land seems to be better placed- thoughts?

It's definitely a less destructive path. As @RU848789 and I have said, a path up the center of the state, in one direction or the other, minimizes the exposure of major population areas, limits the risk of storm surge to a certain extent (about half) and weakens the storm faster.

Still probably gonna suck for a bunch of people, but it kinda spreads the misery a bit.

 

[Knight Shift]

No RFQ for Tampa, for now. Still on the left side of the center of circulation.

Naples, however, is now under a hurricane warning as of 11AM.

Was wondering what the FRQ or RFQ acronym meant in this context.

 

[e5fdny]

No RFQ for Tampa, for now. Still on the left side of the center of circulation.

Naples, however, is now under a hurricane warning as of 11AM.

Crap.

 

[fezo]

Well, this doesn't seem quite right: FSU developed the superensemble hurricane forecast model using, in part, federal dollars, then sold the technology to WeatherPredict, a private company, which now won't share the model output data with the NHC. Putting lives at risk, potentially.

http://www.theledger.com/news/20060...or-weather-agencies-meteorologists-frustrated

Hang 'em!

 

[RU4Real]

Was wondering what the FRQ or RFQ acronym meant in this context.

Right Front Quadrant (relative to the storm's motion). It's where you don't want to be. Unless you really like that stuff. Then it's exactly where you want to be.

Where's Jim Cantore these days?

 

[Knight Shift]

It's definitely a less destructive path. As @RU848789 and I have said, a path up the center of the state, in one direction or the other, minimizes the exposure of major population areas, limits the risk of storm surge to a certain extent (about half) and weakens the storm faster.

Still probably gonna suck for a bunch of people, but it kinda spreads the misery a bit.

Looks like that for about 100 miles due north from the tip of Florida and West of Route 1, there is nothing but the Everglades and the Big National Preserve, except for poor little Homestead.