The insurance companies played hard and denied many claims when Katrina happened and they will play harder in Houston and Florida.
OT: Official Hurricane Irma Thread
- Thread starter RU4Real
- Start date
Hey, numbers and any of you pros - I have a dear friend (I very nearly married her years ago; victims of long distance relationships) who is fifth generation in Fernandina Beach - northernmost oceanfront on Florida Atlantic coast. I'm deciding whether to be concerned, terrified or in between for her. She sees it correctly as a wind event and is just hunkering down in the safest part of the house.
Should I tell her she's out of her mind? Should I tell her her husband who is coming home early from a recreational event on SATURDAY (!) is insane?
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
We're in text communication but if Irma does to her what Sandy did to us cells will be out of order for days.
Should I tell her she's out of her mind? Should I tell her her husband who is coming home early from a recreational event on SATURDAY (!) is insane?
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
We're in text communication but if Irma does to her what Sandy did to us cells will be out of order for days.
I was just coming here to check on Jose, to see where the experts think he's going and what he'll do when he gets there...Can't sleep on Jose:
The Herbert Hoover Dike. It's 143 miles around the circumference of Lake Okeechobee. Basically holds the lake in place, since previously Okeechobee was the catchment that drained the Kissimmee River and its watershed and then, in turn, drained directly into the Everglades.
When the Army Corp of Engineers f*cked up the Kissimmee River it caused Lake Okeechobee to become a flood hazard for the development that was ongoing in the northern Everglades, around the southern half of the lake. So they build a dike around it.
It's just a classic shitstorm waiting to hit the world's biggest fan.
Friends of mine left 5 am Tues (east coast 2 + hours north of Miami), stopped often to get gas (2 gal. max), made Georgia by the evening.
Not that there is anything wrong with that. . . .
Looks like a saw ready to cut Florida
key point from 2PM NHC discussion
The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24
hours. After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of
the subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and
northward. This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still
uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus
on the exact track of the center. The new NHC forecast was adjusted
just a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and
the HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very
close to each other.
The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24
hours. After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of
the subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and
northward. This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still
uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus
on the exact track of the center. The new NHC forecast was adjusted
just a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and
the HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very
close to each other.
How about visiting her in person before the hubby comes home and then promptly whisk her away on a week vacation up north ?
When I broke up with a chick back in the day we never became dear friends after that. It was All or nothing at all. Hey, wasn't that a popular song a couple generations back ?
My apologies if this is repeat info, but I've been in meetings all day and just had a chance to glance at the NHC 11 am track and the latest GFS/Euro models and the trend towards the Gulf Coast continues. If this track verifies, the Central Keys, then SW Gulf Coast near Naples, are now looking like the most likely landfall locations. And Irma is restrengthening, with winds back up to 155 mph. NHC 11 am map and the most recent Euro at 48 hours (7 am Sunday) are below.
This is going to be a catastrophic storm for anyone within 30 to maybe 50 miles of where the center of the storm goes, which looks like it could mean all of the Keys, the entire Gulf Coast and parts of Central Florida up to Orlando, at least. Also, if this track verifies, Miami and the SE coast of FL are not off the hook, but they might not quite be as devastated. And keep in mind that the track can still change, so keep watching. But if you're on the Florida Gulf Coast riding this out, please reconsider.
This is going to be a catastrophic storm for anyone within 30 to maybe 50 miles of where the center of the storm goes, which looks like it could mean all of the Keys, the entire Gulf Coast and parts of Central Florida up to Orlando, at least. Also, if this track verifies, Miami and the SE coast of FL are not off the hook, but they might not quite be as devastated. And keep in mind that the track can still change, so keep watching. But if you're on the Florida Gulf Coast riding this out, please reconsider.
For anyone who doesn't know hurricane history, read the Wiki page on Lake Okeechobee and the related pages on the 1926 and 1928 major hurricanes that ravaged that part of Florida, killing thousands when the then earthen dams around the Lake were breached. If the current 40 foot dike around the Lake were ever to fail, the damage would be incalculable - that's part of why they've been draining it for days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Okeechobee
I decided to take a look at the 12z NAM (North American Model) for the sake of comparison and posterity.
If you follow the snow threads you'll recall that the NAM gets little respect, in part because it's not global, it's short-range (only out to 84 hours) and has been known to predict massive nor'easters at times, only to have them fizzle into nothing. It did, however, nail our last major winter storm, on which the Euro whiffed spectacularly.
In short, I respect the NAM somewhat, within its range.
Right now, it shows the eye of Irma making it as far southwest as Key West before coming ashore in the western Everglades, rolling up the inside of the left coast just to the east of Naples and Fort Myers - both of which get the western eyewall - and passing through the center of Pinellas County, just east of Tampa.
This is relevant because all of the minor models are now shifting to the west with consecutive runs. There's been a lot of shifting, in all of the models, during the last 3 run cycles and if we're being honest about it we have to wonder if there's a trend here. If we start seeing the 18z and 0z models continue the westward shift then the confidence of all the forecasts in general will have to be adjusted downward.
If you follow the snow threads you'll recall that the NAM gets little respect, in part because it's not global, it's short-range (only out to 84 hours) and has been known to predict massive nor'easters at times, only to have them fizzle into nothing. It did, however, nail our last major winter storm, on which the Euro whiffed spectacularly.
In short, I respect the NAM somewhat, within its range.
Right now, it shows the eye of Irma making it as far southwest as Key West before coming ashore in the western Everglades, rolling up the inside of the left coast just to the east of Naples and Fort Myers - both of which get the western eyewall - and passing through the center of Pinellas County, just east of Tampa.
This is relevant because all of the minor models are now shifting to the west with consecutive runs. There's been a lot of shifting, in all of the models, during the last 3 run cycles and if we're being honest about it we have to wonder if there's a trend here. If we start seeing the 18z and 0z models continue the westward shift then the confidence of all the forecasts in general will have to be adjusted downward.
No thank you. What strength is it predicted to be then? We didn't board the windows and there is no plywood now, just wondering how much damage I can expect.
RU4Real,
RU4Real,
The last few discussions I read on the NHC website indicate that they continue to move the track westward. Isn't your reading of the NAM consistent with this trend and therefore indicative of a move toward consensus on a westward track? I would think that would increase forecasting confidence.
RU4Real,
The last few discussions I read on the NHC website indicate that they continue to move the track westward. Isn't your reading of the NAM consistent with this trend and therefore indicative of a move toward consensus on a westward track? I would think that would increase forecasting confidence.
If the current track verifies, winds in the TB area would be Cat 1 strength, though probably not consistently.
Back in the old days, nobody really boarded their windows. The running logic was to leave the leeward windows open - that is, those windows on the side of the house away from the wind - which would equalize the pressure in the house and keep the windward windows and the roof intact. Absent a debris strike, windows and roofs don't fail from taking the force of the wind, they fail because the pressure differential between inside and outside blows them out.
But therein lies the lack of confidence. Where, before, the models were drifting back and forth within a well-defined envelope, they're now moving that envelope with each run. Hopefully things will settle down.
Thanks, I see what you mean about the envelope moving. I guess my question is: are the models also moving closer to each other even as they push the envelope to the west?
The ensemble members have all shifted, but their spread isn't any tighter than it was 24 hours ago, so... I think that would make the answer to your question, "no".
The "up the middle" scenario is a troublesome one. We've said that track would mean the least amount of overall damage, and that's true - if it verifies. The problem is that in the 24 hour range it's not uncommon to see track errors of about 50 miles or so. A 50 mile track error on an "up the spine" solution would put either coast in serious jeopardy without much notice. To be honest, that's why I was more comfortable with the previous solutions that showed a run up the coast. With that solution you have, at least, a reasonable chance of the storm winding up 50 miles offshore and being less of a big deal.
Fernindina - I assume close to the ocean, I'm in similar situation and am going 10 miles inland to a hotel. She'll never find one now.
FSU - probably safe enough right there. My youngest didn't want to get locked in hotel so is bugging out with friends at FSU. Dorms there would be fine.
FSU - probably safe enough right there. My youngest didn't want to get locked in hotel so is bugging out with friends at FSU. Dorms there would be fine.
This again? We did this with Harvey. "Most Floridians in Irma's path" don't live in flood zones.
5PM NHC update:
5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 8
Location: 22.1°N 76.5°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 925 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph
The official NHC forecast track is basically unchanged from 2PM however NHC is now saying that Irma will re-strengthen to Cat 5 prior to landfall.
5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 8
Location: 22.1°N 76.5°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 925 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph
The official NHC forecast track is basically unchanged from 2PM however NHC is now saying that Irma will re-strengthen to Cat 5 prior to landfall.
Also, Irma looks to be much more of a wind event than a flood event, though I'm not dismissing that flooding is possible. Wind is not excluded on most homeowners policies like flood is.
I wonder what kind of damage could occur to Disney World. I don't think they've ever been clobbered before. There are obviously more important things to be worried about, but I was curious.
5 pm NHC track update - shifted a little bit west again - now just inland from the Gulf Coast, landfalling on the central Keys and then Naples with 150-155 mph winds, then running all the way up to about Lake City, where it'll likely be down to Cat 1 strength then petering out as it goes through GA and dies in central Tennessee. Sucks for the Gulf Coast, but if it verifies, there should be far less damage for the much more populated and built-up east coast. Also, the NHC said that even landfall in far northern Cuba, which is low/flat, isn't expected to impact Irma's strenght much, especially as the eye will likely barely be on shore and much of the storm will remain off shore.
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Just horrifying sitting here knowing that this horrendous damage is gonna occur, it's just a matter of where.
Richard Thompson did a great song like that called Keep Your Distance. We kind of drifted apart then my grad school just once sent an alumni directory and I called her and we caught up and it was good. We were going to continue but never did. I was down on New Year's for a wedding in Tallahassee and when I saw her town's name on the exit sign I said what the hell. Got the voicemail but she called back. Not really talking - just an occasional text. I'm sure she thinks I'm worrying too much. I think she's not worrying enough.
So, I should hop in my car, go right into a hurricane, risk life and limb and my wife divorcing me only to find that her husband beat me there or they both drowned? I thought you were a nice guy..... Her husband's bigger than me. I've never met him but almost everybody is.....
If it's so much as a cat 3 at the Tampa Bay area that's an insane disaster.5 pm NHC track update - shifted a little bit west again - now just inland from the Gulf Coast, landfalling on the central Keys and then Naples with 150-155 mph winds, then running all the way up to about Lake City, where it'll likely be down to Cat 1 strength then petering out as it goes through GA and dies in central Tennessee. Sucks for the Gulf Coast, but if it verifies, there should be far less damage for the much more populated and built-up east coast. Also, the NHC said that even landfall in far northern Cuba, which is low/flat, isn't expected to impact Irma's strenght much, especially as the eye will likely barely be on shore and much of the storm will remain off shore.
One of those places that I get why people live there but you're counting on it won't happen just because it hasn't happened yet sooner or later you lose.