OT: Matthew Hurricane
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
We'll allow your attempted hijacking of the thread, lol...
If we only include actual meteorologists, I'll take Jen Delgado...
I like Yanet better.
So... not to start a thing, but... The one ensemble model that's been most consistent the last several days is the UKMET.
To quote a great movie, "I've pulled Ted Stryker's record. You're not gonna like it."
So... not to start a thing, but... The one ensemble model that's been most consistent the last several days is the UKMET.
To quote a great movie, "I've pulled Ted Stryker's record. You're not gonna like it."
Latest advisory at 11 am from the NHC has Matthew back up to 140 mph winds (was 130 mph), with a bit of a drop in pressure to 941 mbar. Storm is expected to be in that 130-140 mph range when it grazes the west coast of Haiti and the east coast of Cuba, as it looks like it's going to thread the needle between them, meaning less interaction with land/less weakening.
Track has also been updated and the 5 day cone now includes the US SE coast, with Matthew coming pretty close to SC/NC near the end of the 5-day period. Still an open question on whether it hits SC/NC, although the model consensus is that it will not do so, but too far out to rule out. Still very unlikely to have any significant impact on us (other than surf/erosion), as it's supposed to head NE from NC, but that's beyond the 5 day forecast, so uncertainty is still high. Some gameday impact (showers) is possible. Stay tuned.
Track has also been updated and the 5 day cone now includes the US SE coast, with Matthew coming pretty close to SC/NC near the end of the 5-day period. Still an open question on whether it hits SC/NC, although the model consensus is that it will not do so, but too far out to rule out. Still very unlikely to have any significant impact on us (other than surf/erosion), as it's supposed to head NE from NC, but that's beyond the 5 day forecast, so uncertainty is still high. Some gameday impact (showers) is possible. Stay tuned.
I like Yanet better.
So... not to start a thing, but... The one ensemble model that's been most consistent the last several days is the UKMET.
To quote a great movie, "I've pulled Ted Stryker's record. You're not gonna like it."
Ukie has been consistent with its far westward solution, but I don't recall a tropical system where the UK was an outlier and verified. Doesn't mean it's not possible, as the UK is one of the 3 best models for hurricane tracks (Euro is still the best and GFS is the other in the top 3), but it's unlikely.
Tropical vs. otherwise aside, you'll recall how I stuck by the NAM for the January snowstorm last winter. They'll all wrong, until they're right.
Not saying that the Ukie is right, but if the next GFS ticks west again...
If it hits the east end of Cuba and grazes the west end of Haiti at about 125 mph, as forecast, that's a major hurricane, but nowhere near the worst either country has ever seen; same for the Bahamas. Still, it's going to be pretty impactful, especially for Haiti, which will be on the strong side of the storm and is a country with little to no infrastructure to deal with hurricanes (Cuba is generally very well prepared). Out to sea continues to be the most likely outcome.
Edit: just saw the graphic for estimate rainfall from Matthew in these islands and some mountainous areas could get 20-30 or even 40" of rain and many other areas are likely to get 10-20" - that kind of rainfall could be catastrophic, with killer mudslides and flooding and that rainfall won't be limited to just areas close to the storm, as per the map below. In addition, of course, closer to the storm, there will be major storm surges and hurricane force winds, although the worst of the winds only extend out 40-50 miles from the center, which is kind of unusual.
Jeff Masters just made a great blog post all about the history of impacts of major hurricanes on Jamaica, eastern Cuba and western Haiti. Given the deforestation of 98% of Haiti, resulting from very poor people burning wood for sustenance reasons, that country is particularly vulnerable to hurricanes - and especially flooding from heavy rains and if we get the 20+" of rain expected, the outcome could be another catastrophe for that country.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/J...atthews-targets-haiti-eastern-cuba-and-jamaic
Sorry, I don't actually keep track of predictions by you or anyone else (except for 1-2 situations that I rarely post about). 12Z GFS did go back west, bringing Matthew just along the SC/NC coast, with landfall right around Myrtle Beach and then heading NE along the NC coast and then 75-100 miles off the NJ coast (but then clipping Cape Cod and landfalling in eastern Maine) but it was there a few runs ago, too.
Question is whether this is a fluctuation or indication of a change in the dynamics which will hold. If the Euro jumps further west and shows an actual landfall in SC/NC, I'd say we're likely to see the NHC respond with a move to the west towards the coast at 5 pm with their next track update; if not, I'd expect only minor changes, as the Euro is still king. Interesting stuff and why everyone, even here, still needs to watch this (but not panic).
I just pray Matthew doesn't make landfall ANYWHERE, as it seems like a major storm in the Cat 4/5 range.
That aside, is it fairly certain that the storm will not have any impact at all on our game in NJ on Saturday?
That aside, is it fairly certain that the storm will not have any impact at all on our game in NJ on Saturday?
No, impacts on the game are possible, if not likely. If the storm misses us out to sea by 100+ miles as is likely, we'd still likely get showers, as per the game thread. However, if the latest shifts to the NW in the models are realized, we could be getting drenching rains at game time from the storm near the NC/VA area, interacting with the frontal system. Still too early to know the impact though...
Came west and faster, but still stays offshore of SC/NC by ~75 miles on Saturday into Sunday, wheres the GFS and Euro hit around Myrtle Beach and hug the SC/NC coast. Looks like a nailbiter of a forecast, although we're still 5 days from any SC/NC landfall and lots can still happen between now and then.
The Euro would also give us a lot less rain/wind up here on gameday (maybe none as it goes pretty hard out to sea on Sat/Sun and is much slower, still than the others) and Sunday as opposed to the others which come very close to the NJ shore (50-75 miles) and could bring drenching rains Sat/Sat night/Sunday.
Just look at the huge differences in the GFS at 144 hours (Sunday morning at 7 am). The GFS has the storm 75 miles east of Cape May, drenching our area with heavy rain (since Saturday afternoon), while the Euro is 75 miles south of Cape Hatteras, on its way to the ENE way out to sea, with little precip likely for our area. This is why forecasting 5+ days out is so difficult, let alone 2-3 days out. Stay tuned, as I'm sure more changes are to come.
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Enough about it impacting the game, I'm more concerned about it hitting the coast!
I will see your Matthew and raise you Yanet and quite possibly somebody else who is highly educated, sin duda.
And the Gulf looks safe, too.
My connections are solid.
Here she is in Rutgers colors.
Unlikely, still, but theoretically possible, although if it does, it would very likely be weakened by hitting NC first, as there's no model showing Matthew being 100+ miles off the NJ coast and then heading NW into the coast, like Sandy did - the approach vector and the incredible strength/breadth of Sandy were what led to the record storm surges north of landfall in AC. If Matthew comes near the NJ coast it will be traveling NE, like Irene/Floyd were and would not have record setting storm surges (there would be coastal flooding, mind you, just not like Sandy).
IMO, the biggest risk with Matthew for our area, in the unlikely event that it comes within 50 miles of our coast, would be torrential rains and flooding, like we had with those two storms - that could happen even with a 100 mile miss, but would not happen with a Euro-style solution hundreds of miles out to sea. Root for the Euro.
The region and especially NJ cannot handle yet another monstrous storm.
Everyone should be praying that it turns eastward.
None of those models are a "direct hit" to the Jersey shore. At most it's a coastal scraper. If the western half of the storm stays over land for 300 miles it will tear up pretty quick. What those models are depicting is very much an Irene scenario - lots of rain, not much wind.
As expected, given the westward shift in the models, including the Euro, at least through day 5 (before it goes out to sea, while the UK/GFS have landfall near the SC/NC border with a ride up the NC coast after that and then a close call for us and another landfall at Cape Cod and then Maine), the NHC has now shifted the track such that it is now likely to strike the NC coast near Wilmington, Saturday afternoon. Even Florida is now within the cone - unlikely to hit FL, but FL will now likely feel the effects from about West Palm northwards.
Where it goes from a near landfall on the NC coast on Saturday, beyond Day 5, is still highly uncertain (and the NHC only predicts through Day 5) and depends greatly on the evolution of the two main steering factors, the west Atlantic ridge (high pressure to Matthew's NE), which will tend to steer Matthew NW towards the SC/NC coast, and the trough and associated cold front slated to come across the US this week arriving by Sat or so, which would tend to push the storm off the east coast.
For our area, the worst credible case would be a Floyd/Irene type of scenario, where the storm heads NNE up the coast from NC, possibly striking our area (an actual NJ/NYC landfall is unlikely) with tropical storm force winds (hurricane force is unlikely), torrential rains and moderate/major coastal flooding (although NOT a Sandy scenario for coastal flooding, which is not in the cards).
More likely is that Matthew passes up the coast, but offshore by 50-100 miles, which would still bring heavy to torrential rains and high winds (maybe TS force) Saturday night through Sunday, as well as some coastal flooding and lots of beach erosion. The full out to sea solution the Euro is showing with minimal impacts for our area (outside of beach erosion) is less likely, but still possible, as discounting the Euro, the best model, is foolish. Stay tuned.
Lastly, Haiti, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas are going to get crushed by 130-140 mph winds in a small area where the eyewall hits, and hurricane force winds further from the center, and 10-20" rains and major storm surges in a much larger area. The impacts on eastern Haiti, in particular, with poor housing stock, deforested mountains (leading to mudslides) and a general lack of infrastructure, will likely be catastrophic.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/J...-extreme-rains-threat-to-southeast-us-growing
Where it goes from a near landfall on the NC coast on Saturday, beyond Day 5, is still highly uncertain (and the NHC only predicts through Day 5) and depends greatly on the evolution of the two main steering factors, the west Atlantic ridge (high pressure to Matthew's NE), which will tend to steer Matthew NW towards the SC/NC coast, and the trough and associated cold front slated to come across the US this week arriving by Sat or so, which would tend to push the storm off the east coast.
For our area, the worst credible case would be a Floyd/Irene type of scenario, where the storm heads NNE up the coast from NC, possibly striking our area (an actual NJ/NYC landfall is unlikely) with tropical storm force winds (hurricane force is unlikely), torrential rains and moderate/major coastal flooding (although NOT a Sandy scenario for coastal flooding, which is not in the cards).
More likely is that Matthew passes up the coast, but offshore by 50-100 miles, which would still bring heavy to torrential rains and high winds (maybe TS force) Saturday night through Sunday, as well as some coastal flooding and lots of beach erosion. The full out to sea solution the Euro is showing with minimal impacts for our area (outside of beach erosion) is less likely, but still possible, as discounting the Euro, the best model, is foolish. Stay tuned.
Lastly, Haiti, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas are going to get crushed by 130-140 mph winds in a small area where the eyewall hits, and hurricane force winds further from the center, and 10-20" rains and major storm surges in a much larger area. The impacts on eastern Haiti, in particular, with poor housing stock, deforested mountains (leading to mudslides) and a general lack of infrastructure, will likely be catastrophic.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/J...-extreme-rains-threat-to-southeast-us-growing
Just ran to the store and they are out of bread and milk
As expected, updated guidance from NHC:
Definitely a distinct movement to the west.
I've found that lots of stores are out of bread and milk on Monday. Anyway, this thing isn't hitting North Carolina, per the current track, until Saturday. I'm sure you'll be able to go back and get some tomorrow Proud.
And the 18Z GFS goes out to sea after scraping the FL/GA/SC/NC coasts the whole way (and actually landfalling, barely around Myrtle Beach; this would be a horrible outcome for that entire section of the SE coast, although one would think a storm that's close to half over land would weaken a fair amount) - it then goes from just off the OBX to Nova Scotia without coming closer than 300 miles to the Jersey Shore. The out to sea part is relatively similar to the Euro and would result in little to no rain here before Sunday morning, when we could get a good and well needed dumping of several inches of rain.
Can't make this stuff up - and this is why I rarely post as each model comes out, since it's better to evaluate things a few times a day, as the NHC does, only changing their track every 6 hours. Tropical weenie suicide underway on AmericanWx, lol.
Can't make this stuff up - and this is why I rarely post as each model comes out, since it's better to evaluate things a few times a day, as the NHC does, only changing their track every 6 hours. Tropical weenie suicide underway on AmericanWx, lol.
I don't want it to hit anyone, anywhere.
#s, what does GFS stand for. I'm trying to learn. Also what's the abbreviation for the "Euro" since those are the one's most often referenced around here.
GFS is Global Forecast System - it's NOAA's (from NCEP - National Center for Environmental Prediction) main global model, in competition with the Euro, which is short for the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting or ECMWF.
C'mon #s admit it. You want a western solution. How boring would this be if it made a sharp right turn out to sea?
Here's ALL I need to know:
- will this affect my date Thursday night
- will this affect tailgating and/or game day weather on Saturday
...thanks! (a "% chance" is good enough this far out...)
- will this affect my date Thursday night
- will this affect tailgating and/or game day weather on Saturday
...thanks! (a "% chance" is good enough this far out...)