OT: Kentucky Derby Predictions

[WhiteBus]

Was a reason given?

No not even a mention when the schedule comes out.

 

[WhiteBus]

Nice catch Lady RU. I believe the number of the turnout in a non-Triple Crown year could be at low as 75K-80K. When American Pharoh won the Triple Crown they capped it 90K.

I will have to defer to White Bus on the following:
Some (@&$¥£€) called and made a death threat to the Zayat family as well as threaten the horse. So on that Year Belmont agreed to cap capacity to 90,000. There were well over 100 armed personnel with AR15 patrolling the grounds and 10 guys on the roof with what I thought looked like sniper rifles. My girlfriend and I do a little tailgating mid morning and two very young NY State Troopers respectfully asked us to pack it in when they smelled two espressos and saw a small box of mini cannoli's. They smiled and said you could go ahead a finish up.

The issue was about parking, transportation and bathroom capacity.
At 90,000 the track can easily handle that size.
I love that track but when they stopped allowing coolers with beer/alcohol inside (on Belmont Day only) in the "Backyard" I stopped going. It went from an enjoyable relaxing spot during a big event to a complete money grab.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.spor...h-triple-crown-bid/11rrbgsl64mr1127ij6gmltcvw

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

So Bus what is your 3 horse exact looking like and what longie are you tempted to grab a hold of?

 

[1stand3rd]

Irish War Craft has 0 shot at winning. Ran against much weaker competiton. No NJ horse has ever won the Derby. Not a homer and realize this horse has no chance. These are the best of the best in this race gentlemen.

Regret was the first filly to win the derby in 1915. Foaled at Brookdale, now Thompson Park in Lincroft, NJ. Though likely stabled in Kentucky.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Irish War Craft has 0 shot at winning. Ran against much weaker competiton. No NJ horse has ever won the Derby. Not a homer and realize this horse has no chance. These are the best of the best in this race gentlemen.

Not true
Look it up -1936 and 1937

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Without the Haskell's, trainers and jockeys you dont have a sport to gamble on. Very few of them earn a decent living. Many do it for the love of the sport. Degenerate gamblers only look at it from winning and losing, mostly losing. People like myself who have a love of the sport get way more out of it than people like you.

Don't have a horse in this race (the argument between you two) and while I favor your side, whitebus, and supporting New jersey, don't you think the owners comment could be looked at as an insult to the Triple Crown races and venues in order to elevate The Haskell?

 

[RU05]

Don't have a horse in this race (the argument between you two) and while I favor your side, whitebus, and supporting New jersey, don't you think the owners comment could be looked at as an insult to the Triple Crown races and venues in order to elevate The Haskell?

A tinge of disrespect I guess, but certainly some tongue in cheek as well.

And why not try to break the strangle hold of the triple crown? Horse racing is more then those 3 races.

 

[RU31trap]

Don't have a horse in this race (the argument between you two) and while I favor your side, whitebus, and supporting New jersey, don't you think the owners comment could be looked at as an insult to the Triple Crown races and venues in order to elevate The Haskell?

I would answer "Yes". I've been on some horse racing threads and several posters felt that she misspoke. I'm sure she didn't mean to insult the K-Derby.

 

[RU31trap]

Don't overlook Hence. Go back and watch the Sunland Derby where he circled the field to beat Conquest Mo Money and Irap easily, putting up I believe the best Beyer of any horse in the KD field.

I did look at the video of Hence and man oh man he not only looked good the fractions and final times were good. Now I realize that a track can be suped up so one must be a little leery.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Thought the comment was outstanding and a breath of fresh air. Knowing the source and the lineage of the owners seems fair territory.

Many horses entered in the derby have no chance of winning - it is actually window dressing for future races and preps.

 

[WhiteBus]

Don't have a horse in this race (the argument between you two) and while I favor your side, whitebus, and supporting New jersey, don't you think the owners comment could be looked at as an insult to the Triple Crown races and venues in order to elevate The Haskell?

No not at all. No one in the horse racing industry looks at it the way the media is making an issue out of it. They all understand.
Her father founded Monmouth Park. The Haskell is named after her dad. It would a bigger story in the business if she said the one race she has always wanted to win was the Kentucky Derby. Now that would be a story!
If anyone doesnt understand her statement than they are complete idiots.

 

[wicker]

No not even a mention when the schedule comes out.

It's a Tuesday. Can't think of a better reason to be dark that day. And even that's a lame reason

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

I would answer "Yes". I've been on some horse racing threads and several posters felt that she misspoke. I'm sure she didn't mean to insult the K-Derby.

Don't know much about horseracing.. but don't people routinely talk of some big California race as a tune-up for the Derby?

I think people are too touchy about the whole thing.. and the first to act outraged is probably to blame for the whole kerfuffel

 

[WhiteBus]

So did any catch Brad Thomas on Fatso show? He was on a day earlier as Fatso has off tomorrow because Yankees have a Friday day game. Got out of work and Fatso is thanking Brad but do you think after he recaps. Of course not.
Anyway Brad is an average to below average handicaper during the regular days as he always takes long shots.
However he crushes the big stakes. Always having the bomb in the exoctis that gives the big payday.
Im sure there is a podcast just looking for the quick answer.

 

[RUBigFrank]

He likes mccraken

 

[WhiteBus]

Don't know much about horseracing.. but don't people routinely talk of some big California race as a tune-up for the Derby?

I think people are too touchy about the whole thing.. and the first to act outraged is probably to blame for the whole kerfuffel

There are Derby prep races all across the country. California isnt special. Southern may want to chime in how he like the Arkansas Derby winner and how successful that race has been in the past

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Hence

 

[Southern Gentleman]

There are Derby prep races all across the country. California isnt special. Southern may want to chime in how he like the Arkansas Derby winner and how successful that race has been in the past

Classic Empire is the morning-line favorite at 4-1. He was the 2 year old champion and earned more than $2 million. He was sold as a yearling for $425,000. Classic Empire has run 4 Grade 1 races, the most of any horse in the field, and he won them all!

Not a perfect horse by any means. But his winning of the Arkansas derby 3 weeks ago might mean that he is peaking at the right time.

Anything can happen in the Kentucky derby with a large field, and often does. But I think he will be in the money at the end.

 

[bac2therac]

I like Gunnevera. He was way too far back in Florida Derby and closed for third. He was excellent in the Fountain of Youth. If Castellano can get him to respond, he can come flying down the stretch ala Orb a few years back

 

[RutgHoops]

Here you go:

(16) Tapwrit- I am willing to throw out his Blue Grass as it seems every horse in this race has thrown in one clunker. Don't love that his clunker happened in is his last race. Training well at CD, Pletcher horse, loved his work on 4/28 and seems to be getting better and better coming into the race.

(17) Irish War Cry- Loved his Wood Memorial and while it didn't look like he beat much talent the Beyer numbers came back strong on his race. Training well at CD, looks the part.

(4) Untrapped- Asmussen horse that seems to be doing well at Churchill. Asmussen putting nice, solid maintenance works in the horse indicates to me this horse may be sitting on his best race. Speed on both sides of him so he looks like a horse who could settle in nicely and get the "great trip" needed to win or come close in the Derby.


(9) Irap- Beat a bunch of Derby horses in the Blue Grass (including McCracken) at 31-1 and not getting a whole lot of respect. Another that has looked well training at CD, good energetic gallops. O'Neill has won the Derby twice in the last five years (I'll Have Another, Nyquist).

(6) State of Honor- In my opinion the horse that has looked the best at CD this week. Well placed in the 6 hole. Hit the board in all three 2017 Stakes races he has run (Fl Derby [2nd]. Tampa Derby [2nd], Sam F Davis [3rd]) losing to a Derby horse in each. Can he get 1 1/4 is his big question.

The plays:

WPS bet on the 16

Exactas: 16/4,6,9,17--17/4,6,9,16--4/6,9,16,17

Triple box: 4,6,9,16,17

 

[ruready4somefootball_rivals]

Classic Empire

14 4-1
Always Dreaming 5 5-1
McCraken 15 5-1
Irish War Cry 17 6-1
Gunnevera 10 15-1
Gormley 18 15-1
Hence 8 15-1
Girvin 7 15-1
Tapwrit 16 20-1
Lookin at Lee 1 20-1
Practical Joke 19 20-1
Thunder Snow 2 20-1
J Boys Echo 13 20-1
Royal Mo 21AE* 20-1
Irap 9 20-1
Battle of Midway 11 30-1
Patch 20 30-1
State of Honor 6 30-1
Untrapped 4 30-1
Sonneteer 12 50-1
Master Plan 22AE* 50-1
Fast and Accurate 3 50-1
Sponsored Headlines

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Moz, I never understood musical theater and womens fashions but I would never disoparage you about them.I got my love of the ponies from my dad.

 

[WhiteBus]

Classic Empire is the morning-line favorite at 4-1. He was the 2 year old champion and earned more than $2 million. He was sold as a yearling for $425,000. Classic Empire has run 4 Grade 1 races, the most of any horse in the field, and he won them all!

Not a perfect horse by any means. But his winning of the Arkansas derby 3 weeks ago might mean that he is peaking at the right time.

Anything can happen in the Kentucky derby with a large field, and often does. But I think he will be in the money at the end.

I think all these horses have flaws. Most of the favorites had one terrible race this year but most rebounded.
This is not a sensational crop of 3 year olds. But it doesn't matter tomorrow. Someone will be crowned champion. And with it big $ in future breeding rights.
I do think Classic Empire is the class of field. My concern is just 2 races this year.

 

[Plum Street]

I like Gunnevera. He was way too far back in Florida Derby and closed for third. He was excellent in the Fountain of Youth. If Castellano can get him to respond, he can come flying down the stretch ala Orb a few years back

I like this horse too. But don't know jack about horse racing.

 

[RUchip]

Not true
Look it up -1936 and 1937

Care to elaborate? I don't see a jersey horse

 

[RUchip]

Normally the hasn't run againt anyone is a good angle but not this year as nobody has run against a quality field. This is a poor crop of 3 year olds and all of the favorities have had at least one awful race this year.

I agree. The field is really not good at all

 

[bac2therac]

is it ever a great field...most of the time we get a whole slew of overhyped horses who disappear by the time the fall rolls around

 

[WhiteBus]

Care to elaborate? I don't see a jersey horse

He had wrong years.
Regret in 1915 and Calacade 1934

 

[RUBigFrank]

years wrong:
http://www.app.com/story/sports/horses/2017/05/04/irish-war-cry-kentucky-derby/101266476/

It’s been a quarter-century since a New Jersey-bred runner was loaded into the starting gate in the Run for the Roses, with Dance Floor finishing third in 1992, and 83 years since a state-bred hit the wire first, with Cavalcade winning in 1934.


From Wikipedia:

Regret(April 2, 1912 – April 11, 1934) was a famousAmericanthoroughbredracehorseand the first of threefilliesto ever win theKentucky Derby.
She was foaled atHarry Payne Whitney'sBrookdale FarminLincroft, New Jersey. The filly was sired byBroomstick, the 1913-1915 leading sire inducted into theNational Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame(son ofBen Brush, also inducted into the Hall of Fame). She was out of Jersey Lightning, who goes back toLongfellowthrough his Kentucky Derby-winning son, Riley. Regret was bred by owner Harry Payne Whitney.

 

[ruready4somefootball_rivals]

I put some money on Patch to win, as long as he can see the finish line.:sunglasses: Speaking of Monmouth Park, we love the place,and go at least 6 or 7 times a summer. In fact it's a family tradition to get as many relatives as possible to meet behind the benches early, setup our own "safe space",that's for you Kbee,lol, every Mother's Day, and Father's Day. In fact, 2 years ago,on Father's Day,I won a 4 pack to a Seton Hall basketball game at Prudential Center, with passes for the all you can eat spread under the stands, and my nephew won on the same day, a parking pass and 4 tickets to a Yankee game. They went unused, as we couldn't even give them away,lol.True story.[cheers]It was funny as we took a walk over to the chalk board to see them writing down the winners after the 7th race and seeing the reaction of the people that won, and what they won. I actually ran into people over several weeks who told me they saw my name on the board. I didn't know I knew that many horse players,lol.

 

[RU_Planning]

The issue was about parking, transportation and bathroom capacity.
At 90,000 the track can easily handle that size.
I love that track but when they stopped allowing coolers with beer/alcohol inside (on Belmont Day only) in the "Backyard" I stopped going. It went from an enjoyable relaxing spot during a big event to a complete money grab.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.spor...h-triple-crown-bid/11rrbgsl64mr1127ij6gmltcvw

I hated the rule change, but I experienced why it was necessary.

I was there in 2002 and it was packed, but the crowd was your standard Belmont Stakes Day crowd. The following year it was like they installed the infield from Preakness in the Belmont backyard.

My uncle that lives near the track would always arrive early, claim a picnic table with some newspapers. In 2003 every picnic table became a beer pong table. People weren't bringing coolers of food and beer, they were brining garbage cans full of beer. The walkway to the train was mayhem of drunks, I watched a grown man choke another grown man while the victims wife and young kids screamed and hit the guy choking their dad. The event as a BYOB event jumped the shark and had to be mitigated. Unfortunately, a number of bad actors who pretty much had no interest in horse racing ruined it for everyone else.

 

[read option]

Throw out the following:
1-2-3-4-9-11-13-18-19-20 and go from there.

Win: Classic Empire, Irish War Cry
Underneath: 5-6-7-8-10-12-15-16
Longshots: Guennevara, Tapwrit

 

[wicker]

No not at all. No one in the horse racing industry looks at it the way the media is making an issue out of it. They all understand.
Her father founded Monmouth Park. The Haskell is named after her dad. It would a bigger story in the business if she said the one race she has always wanted to win was the Kentucky Derby. Now that would be a story!
If anyone doesnt understand her statement than they are complete idiots.

Racing Gods may owe her family one. Remember the miserable Breeders Cup weekend there?

 

[RUBigFrank]

Best of luck to all holding tickets to Irish War Cry

 

[RUaMoose_rivals]

Moose's choice: Always Dreaming

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Ok so who do we like to win and what should my exactly box look like?In 25 words or less.

 

[Abro1975]

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Ok I am taking a 20 horse box..

 

[Abro1975]

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/04/28/10-things-you-didnt-know-about-the-kentucky-derby/

3. The Kentucky Derby was founded by Meriwether Lewis Clark Jr.

According to Churchill Down’s website, Col. M Lewis Clark Jr. founded Churchill Downs racetrack after traveling to England and coming up with the idea of a Louisville Jockey Club. After following through with the idea and building Churchill Downs to house his club’s races, the track finally opened in 1875. That year there were four races run at the track, one of which was the now historic Kentucky Derby.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Abro I am looking for winners. You are giving us a history lesson.