OT: Housing market

[ronpolk]

The market in 2007 are being made again, but rebranded as “non-prime”. Market hasn’t popped already because builders aren’t developing at the rate they were in ‘07. They are ramping up though.

I’m by no means a mortgage expert but I don’t believe we are facing the same issues as 2007/2008. Back then prices were inflated because literally anyone could get a house. Underwriting standards are more stringent now. Not saying bad loans aren’t made, it’s just not near as coming.

Prices are high now because of severe inventory shortage, historically low interest rates and the cost for a new build is very high (labor shortages, material shortages and high prices on material that is available). Builders profits are pretty squeezed at homes prices below $200k

 

[dog12]

Work from anywhere is here to stay. But in a few years, people will flock back to cities.

What is your rationale for this?

If a person can work from home (i.e., work from anywhere), then why would that person move to Manhattan and pay high dollar for a small apartment in a high-rise building?

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

What is your rationale for this?

If a person can work from home (i.e., work from anywhere), then why would that person move to Manhattan and pay high dollar for a small apartment in a high-rise building?

Because a lot of people actually like cities. Restaurants everywhere, clubs, concerts, etc. I figure, Manhattan will be a lot more affordable as well. My wife's company is HQ'd in NYC and a lot of the people that left are ready to go back already. They love the city, just hate the lockdowns.

 

[PineGroveBully]

I didn’t need to know but I watched because it was Margot Robbie in a bathtub. Oh and for those not in on the know, the “t” is silent, even if she wasn’t.

 

[forestdepth]

You better let your wife do it. If you retire at 55 or older, before 59.5 and not fully retire you will owe 10% penalty on your 401K. If you are not touching your 401k then you have no worries.

Ever heard of Roth?

 

[Go Budaw]

The market in 2007 are being made again, but rebranded as “non-prime”. Market hasn’t popped already because builders aren’t developing at the rate they were in ‘07. They are ramping up though.

Can’t believe we’re going through this again...nobody is actually looking into the fine print of these mortgage backed securities to see how few of them are actually owned or endorsed by Deion Sanders.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

Yep, as someone who lives in one of those high-rises, I think you will see a shuffling within cities, but not from cities.

Folks on this board naturally struggle to see it, but when people can live wherever they want, a LOT of them choose cities. There are just massive lifestyle advantages at a certain scale.

 

[archdog]

Purchase numbers will continue to go up this year. Rates will remain low but slightly higher. Inventory has been the issue but that should free up a little later this year.

I locked up my 30 year rate yesterday at 2.75%.

I have a house for sale in Starkville right now.

Edited to add.....house is now under contract.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

And why would companies who have effectively offloaded the cost of office space to the employee renew big commercial leases and pay to have square footage? I may be surprised, but I don't see how commercial real estate doesn't take a hit with nearly every lease that is renewed going forward. At a minimum, all white collar jobs have figured out how to work with a large percentage of their workforce not in the office.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

"lifestyle advantage" is a preference. It's quiet where I live. I have space, and green space. I'd be crazy if I had to be in a concrete jungle for life or had to take an elevator ride just to leave the house/walk the dog, whatever. And those doggie poo bags. Hard pass. I love visiting large cities, but doses are enough for me.

 

[o_1984Dawg]

Respectfully, you're not in the group of people that is hypothetically going to flee the city.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

100% correct

 

[johnson86-1]

Because a lot of people actually like cities. Restaurants everywhere, clubs, concerts, etc. I figure, Manhattan will be a lot more affordable as well. My wife's company is HQ'd in NYC and a lot of the people that left are ready to go back already. They love the city, just hate the lockdowns.

I think you're going to both see cities not fully recover and also be a lot better for the people that want to live their because it won't be as expensive or crowded.

A lot of people, especially young people, live in teh city because it's a great lifestyle. Concerts, clubs, other people in a similar demographic just about no matter what demographic you want to come up with, lots of opportunities for niche interests, etc.

A lot of people are in the big cities for jobs, and can get most of what they want out of any small to medium sized city, and what they can't get (theatre, maybe their professional sports teams, concerts with big name performers), they only take advantage of sporadically enough that they can get their fix on trips to bigger cities.

So I think the people that really love the city because it's a big city will stay and most of the money supporting the things they care about will stay (whether its from people living their or tourists), and the people that really just want amenities that can be found elsewhere will go elsewhere.

I think it will be a win/win, except a lot of large cities are poorly managed, and a lot of the people that leave are people that they need to pay exorbitant taxes. Not sure how that will play out.

 

[johnson86-1]

Too many think they are going to be psychologists, physical therapists, historians or lawyers. Career Tech is the way to go for many students!

It's a shame too. Lots of office drones squeaking by that could be making a killing as a general contractor. Just being organized and responsive puts you in the top 1% of residential builders.