OT: Housing market

[Dawgtruc]

Going off the thoughts in the 401K post.

Another factor in how soon I retire is my wife's hopeful success in Real Estate going forward. She is doing fairly well as she is currently the listing agent on about a half dozen houses, and is actively working with almost a dozen clients looking for homes.

What is in store in the housing market? It currently seems to be a SELLER's market. Not a ton of inventory of available homes. We are in Gluckstadt area, and there is new construction/neighborhoods popping up. I have a feeling some houses will be foreclosed on in the coming months when people who have lost employment due to COVID has their mortgage relief run out and they are back on the hook for payments. Many of these poor folks have very little equity built up because there was no way to foresee the impact of the VIRUS.

The current huge apartment complex going up on the west side of I-55 near the John Deere dealership and Panther Creek is depressing. I'm sure they saw that as ideal for the thousands of Nissan employees, but it surely will make property values go down. Interested to see going forward.

 

[GloryDawg]

You better let your wife do it. If you retire at 55 or older, before 59.5 and not fully retire you will owe 10% penalty on your 401K. If you are not touching your 401k then you have no worries.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

The same sub-prime loans that collapsed

The market in 2007 are being made again, but rebranded as “non-prime”. Market hasn’t popped already because builders aren’t developing at the rate they were in ‘07. They are ramping up though.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

The market in 2007 are being made again, but rebranded as “non-prime”. Market hasn’t popped already because builders aren’t developing at the rate they were in ‘07. They are ramping up though.

Agree. So many similarities to the beginning of that bubble. Collapse is coming, but it won't be for a few years. I should say the downturn rather than collapse, because the size of the downtown is directly proportional to how stupid the public gets regarding these things. But right now, it seems no one remembers 2008. Maybe so many young people just aren't old enough to truly 'get it'.

 

[HWY51dog]

Lot of difference in 2008 and now. The loans with non prime require a lot of money down 10-30% usually, no such thing as 100% loan like it was with sub prime. Most people with that low of score don’t have the cash for that. I haven’t seen any here in Desoto County area yet.

Real Estate will slow down as it always ebbs and flows. However, remember real estate is regional. We have a record low inventory here in Desoto County, it will take builders years to catch up to the demand. I’m working with 9 families right now that I can’t find houses for here.

 

[aTotal360]

Same here. We only have around 30% of the inventory needed for a neutral market. It's not slowing down any time soon. On top of that, construction is slower than normal with the covid issues and sourcing problems.

 

[civildawg88]

I’m in the gluckstadt area as well and we are trying to get out but can’t find a house to buy because they are flying off the market at unreal prices. Gluckstadt has become way too crowded and the apartment area you listed has me very concerned for the future. I can’t believe people in charge let that massive complex be built so close to the school system and gluckstadt itself. Even though it’s not in Germantown school district, it’s just such and eyesore and has the potential to attract violent and unwanted activity in the area

 

[Shmuley]

The 17n material supply chain is still ****.

 

[dorndawg]

Build. More. Houses.

 

[thatsbaseball]

If my wife was in real estate I would remind her everyday to watch for "buys".

 

[Cooterpoot]

Purchase numbers will continue to go up this year. Rates will remain low but slightly higher. Inventory has been the issue but that should free up a little later this year.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

^^^correct. Friend is building and can't get an ETA on appliances.

 

[JML105]

Too many general contractors and not enough sub contractors is part of the problem. It's a microcosm of the education problem with kids not being encouraged more to learn a trade.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

I grew up in apartments. I might have been unwanted, but I wasn't any more violent than your average kid. However, I don't think we lost a fight to the "rich kids" that lived in a nearby neighborhood, and a neighborhood church banned us apartment kids from the property, but it was a kangaroo court!

 

[Mobile Bay]

The market in 2007 are being made again, but rebranded as “non-prime”. Market hasn’t popped already because builders aren’t developing at the rate they were in ‘07. They are ramping up though.

They are also doing them with car notes. When that pops there will be repercussions as well.

And if anybody needs those terms explained to them, watch this.

 

[johnson86-1]

I’m in the gluckstadt area as well and we are trying to get out but can’t find a house to buy because they are flying off the market at unreal prices. Gluckstadt has become way too crowded and the apartment area you listed has me very concerned for the future. I can’t believe people in charge let that massive complex be built so close to the school system and gluckstadt itself. Even though it’s not in Germantown school district, it’s just such and eyesore and has the potential to attract violent and unwanted activity in the area

I mean, I get it, but poor people have to live somewhere. Cities and counties shouldn't be allowed to zone poor people out, especially in 17ing Mississippi.

 

[johnson86-1]

Too many general contractors and not enough sub contractors is part of the problem. It's a microcosm of the education problem with kids not being encouraged more to learn a trade.

It really is crazy. I don't understand the housing market at all. If I look at what a lot of subs make, I don't understand how you can find any subs. But then when I look at the cost of construction, I don't understand how any houses get built and sold since new home owners have to take a haircut pretty much off the bat.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Well said property was obviously zoned for apartments. Civildawg is concerned about their effect on the area and wants to move before something happens that will affect property values etc.. What's the problem ?

 

[TheDawgSaint]

As I’ve said in another post, we are putting the finishing touches on a new construction home. It has been an adventure for sure. Obviously, materials cost have soared, but it was the right time for us to build. Having said that, as someone mentioned above, if you are building or simply thinking about needing to replace your appliances, you had better order them now! We ordered appliances the day construction started and some have still not shipped. We are on scheduled to have them in by completion, but don’t expect to find everything in stock at your local Lowe’s or Home Depot.

 

[rem101]

It's a sellers market in Ocean Springs up to a certain price point and in certain areas. We are currently in the process of moving. There are very limited houses under the $250k range...our didn't even hit MLS before we had a contract. It's considered "downtown" by real estate standards, even though it's really not. We were able to get full asking.

We are moving further from downtown and were able to negotiate pricing on the new house. From what I understand from our realtor is the number of buyers for the $250k and down houses far exceeds the number of houses available. Over that price point, you limit buyers. But things in our area are not sitting at all. I had a buddy sell his (similar location/size/price point as mine) for $25k over asking with multiple offers in one week.

Edit - I shouldn't make it seem like it's not still a sellers market over that $250k price range. You just may not sell in a day or two. But it will sell. And if it's downtown, it'll go quick and high.

 

[mstateglfr]

I’m in the gluckstadt area as well and we are trying to get out but can’t find a house to buy because they are flying off the market at unreal prices. Gluckstadt has become way too crowded and the apartment area you listed has me very concerned for the future. I can’t believe people in charge let that massive complex be built so close to the school system and gluckstadt itself. Even though it’s not in Germantown school district, it’s just such and eyesore and has the potential to attract violent and unwanted activity in the area

Exactly how bad looking is this apartment complex and how cheap is the rent?
Hearing that you are 'very concerned for the future', that you are shocked an apartment complex is near a school, and that its an eyesore- is it built to look like a cold war soviet building or something?

I mean 17 man, its just an apartment building. Why should it be placed far from a school- people in apartments have kids too. And why does an apartment complex = violent activity?



In all seriousness, if an apartment building actually means increased violence and danger to schools, I would want to move away from there too because those things shouldnt be what anyone thinks of when an apartment building is being built.
When I see apartment buildings and townhomes being built in the far part of my town(where expansion can happen still), I think- 17, that means more traffic. And thats it. Thats all I think about.
The buildings will soon be filled with young adults working, divorced people starting over, and 1st generation families. None of that equals danger.
Hopefully once you move you will be able to view things differently.

 

[johnson86-1]

Well said property was obviously zoned for apartments. Civildawg is concerned about their effect on the area and wants to move before something happens that will affect property values etc.. What's the problem ?

I was responding to the bolded part below:

I’m in the gluckstadt area as well and we are trying to get out but can’t find a house to buy because they are flying off the market at unreal prices. Gluckstadt has become way too crowded and the apartment area you listed has me very concerned for the future. I can’t believe people in charge let that massive complex be built so close to the school system and gluckstadt itself. Even though it’s not in Germantown school district, it’s just such and eyesore and has the potential to attract violent and unwanted activity in the area

I assumed that by saying he can't believe that the people in charge let the apartment complex be built, that he thought they should have stopped it from being built. I assumed he meant through a zoning or planning process. I guess they could also use something like environmental or permit requirements if they wanted to get creative.

I didn't make any comment on him wanting to leave. People can live where they want to live as far as I'm concerned. I mean, as long as they're not trying to put an apartment complex or tract home neighborhood next to my property. I'm obviously NIMBY when it comes to where I live. I just mean that other areas where I don't live shouldn't be able to use zoning to exclude poor people.

 

[PirateDawg]

Too many think they are going to be psychologists, physical therapists, historians or lawyers. Career Tech is the way to go for many students!

Too many general contractors and not enough sub contractors is part of the problem. It's a microcosm of the education problem with kids not being encouraged more to learn a trade.

 

[mstateglfr]

People can live where they want to live as far as I'm concerned. I mean, as long as they're not trying to put an apartment complex or tract home neighborhood next to my property. I'm obviously NIMBY when it comes to where I live. I just mean that other areas where I don't live shouldn't be able to use zoning to exclude poor people.

Solid. Seriously, I laughed. Fully on board with this.

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

I mean, I get it, but poor people have to live somewhere. Cities and counties shouldn't be allowed to zone poor people out, especially in 17ing Mississippi.

True. But since Home Ownership is not a guarantee on the road in “pursuit” of happiness, there are in fact zoning laws in most communities with regard to multi-family housing. And because higher education is also not a guarantee but must be worked at to succeed, some people choose a path that leads them to have to live and play on a strict budget.

Sometimes, it is actually a good thing to live within ones means. Building an Apartment Complex instead of Condominiums in a growing area of the Metro area may not have been against the zoning policy of the area, but it may still mean a very high rent apartment complex. I looked at homes around Gluckstadt myself, but I really don’t want to live in Canton any more than I want to live in Jackson. I decided to stay in Rankin County.

 

[Mobile Bay]

I mean, I get it, but poor people have to live somewhere. Cities and counties shouldn't be allowed to zone poor people out, especially in 17ing Mississippi.

Preferably far away from me.



**

 

[dorndawg]

True. But since Home Ownership is not a guarantee on the road in “pursuit” of happiness, there are in fact zoning laws in most communities with regard to multi-family housing. And because higher education is also not a guarantee but must be worked at to succeed, some people choose a path that leads them to have to live and play on a strict budget.

Sometimes, it is actually a good thing to live within ones means. Building an Apartment Complex instead of Condominiums in a growing area of the Metro area may not have been against the zoning policy of the area, but it may still mean a very high rent apartment complex. I looked at homes around Gluckstadt myself, but I really don’t want to live in Canton any more than I want to live in Jackson. I decided to stay in Rankin County.

You don't say...

 

[johnson86-1]

You better let your wife do it. If you retire at 55 or older, before 59.5 and not fully retire you will owe 10% penalty on your 401K. If you are not touching your 401k then you have no worries.

If you have any IRA or 401k money in a place that is not your current employer, this isn't hard to handle. Just start converting to a roth and by the time you retire, you should have some money you can withdraw tax and penalty free. Just have to make sure the roth ira or 401k has been open at least 5 years.

The other option is the substantially equivalent periodic payment rule or 72(t) withdrawals or whatever you want to call it. Just have to figure out what is the most tax efficent method of giving you the money you need prior to 59.5

 

[kired]

I bought a new house at the end of 2019, and we didn't list our other house until we moved out. There weren't a lot of interested buyers but soon got under contract... then covid hit, buyer was furloughed literally within days of closing, we gave him & his wife a few weeks to work through that, but finally the deal fell apart because his wife couldn't get back to working full time.

Over that time from our original listing, inventory went to practically nothing and prices spiked. When we re-listed it our agent recommended a lot higher price and it sold in less than a week.

We ended up closing a few months later than planned but made more money even after I subtracted out the all the costs of holding it past that first closing date. Insane how quickly prices jumped. I almost felt sorry for the buyer - I'd lived there for 10 years, watched prices gradually climb. But then they just suddenly jumped 10% it seemed like overnight. I guess nobody was selling a house back in April.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

Exactly how bad looking is this apartment complex and how cheap is the rent?
Hearing that you are 'very concerned for the future', that you are shocked an apartment complex is near a school, and that its an eyesore- is it built to look like a cold war soviet building or something?

I mean 17 man, its just an apartment building. Why should it be placed far from a school- people in apartments have kids too. And why does an apartment complex = violent activity?



In all seriousness, if an apartment building actually means increased violence and danger to schools, I would want to move away from there too because those things shouldnt be what anyone thinks of when an apartment building is being built.
When I see apartment buildings and townhomes being built in the far part of my town(where expansion can happen still), I think- 17, that means more traffic. And thats it. Thats all I think about.
The buildings will soon be filled with young adults working, divorced people starting over, and 1st generation families. None of that equals danger.
Hopefully once you move you will be able to view things differently.

Take notes, this is how you virtue signal ^^

 

[horshack.sixpack]

They don't look terrible. Look like most all other new apartment buildings going up. There are similar, albeit older, apartments (The Links) on the opposite (East) side of I-55 that have a reputation for attracting criminal activity. No idea if random or drug related or what. That could fuel the concern of the "same thing" being closer to his house?

 

[thatsbaseball]

Who's jurisdiction are these apartments in ?

 

[civildawg88]

It’s that and like I said it is very close to Germantown school. This isn’t a couple of apartments. This is large scale apartments something like 20-30 different apartment buildings. I understand there may be needs to apartments but the proximity to gluckstadt/Madison is a concern from many people I’ve talked to. They say they built it for Nissan but didn’t Nissan just lay off a lot of people at the canton plant or did I get bad info? So if Nissan laid off a lot of the apartment customers, who is going to fill up the 100’s of apartments just built?

 

[mstateglfr]

Take notes, this is how you virtue signal ^^

Its criticism. Thats what virtue signaling is, its just criticism that someone doesnt like, so they disparage it with a term like that.

 

[johnson86-1]

Exactly how bad looking is this apartment complex and how cheap is the rent?
Hearing that you are 'very concerned for the future', that you are shocked an apartment complex is near a school, and that its an eyesore- is it built to look like a cold war soviet building or something?

I mean 17 man, its just an apartment building. Why should it be placed far from a school- people in apartments have kids too. And why does an apartment complex = violent activity?



In all seriousness, if an apartment building actually means increased violence and danger to schools, I would want to move away from there too because those things shouldnt be what anyone thinks of when an apartment building is being built.
When I see apartment buildings and townhomes being built in the far part of my town(where expansion can happen still), I think- 17, that means more traffic. And thats it. Thats all I think about.
The buildings will soon be filled with young adults working, divorced people starting over, and 1st generation families. None of that equals danger.
Hopefully once you move you will be able to view things differently.

Well, in fairness, if he's in Gluckstadt he probably sees a lot of apartments in Jackson and/or Canton and that probably impacts his perception of what comes with apartment complexes.

I've lived in apartment complexes and they were fine. Certainly a slightly lower SES crowd but not really by much. Just as much a younger crowd than really lower SES.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

True. But since Home Ownership is not a guarantee on the road in “pursuit” of happiness, there are in fact zoning laws in most communities with regard to multi-family housing. And because higher education is also not a guarantee but must be worked at to succeed, some people choose a path that leads them to have to live and play on a strict budget.

Sometimes, it is actually a good thing to live within ones means. Building an Apartment Complex instead of Condominiums in a growing area of the Metro area may not have been against the zoning policy of the area, but it may still mean a very high rent apartment complex. I looked at homes around Gluckstadt myself, but I really don’t want to live in Canton any more than I want to live in Jackson. I decided to stay in Rankin County.

Stakin' Rankin, Unite!

 

[johnson86-1]

I bought a new house at the end of 2019, and we didn't list our other house until we moved out. There weren't a lot of interested buyers but soon got under contract... then covid hit, buyer was furloughed literally within days of closing, we gave him & his wife a few weeks to work through that, but finally the deal fell apart because his wife couldn't get back to working full time.

Over that time from our original listing, inventory went to practically nothing and prices spiked. When we re-listed it our agent recommended a lot higher price and it sold in less than a week.

We ended up closing a few months later than planned but made more money even after I subtracted out the all the costs of holding it past that first closing date. Insane how quickly prices jumped. I almost felt sorry for the buyer - I'd lived there for 10 years, watched prices gradually climb. But then they just suddenly jumped 10% it seemed like overnight. I guess nobody was selling a house back in April.

I really think that's all that was going on. I think people didn't list because they assumed it wouldn't be a good time to list, and people in the market started competing and maybe panicking over the little inventory available, and inventory never caught up to the rush. I think where we lived there was like 30% of the houses on the market in the spring compared to the year before. Combine that with really low interest rates and I think there was a mini bubble. Not expecting it to exactly burst this year but I could see our area being flat for the next few years after the mini boom last year.

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

Who's jurisdiction are these apartments in ?

Gluckstadt is not an incorporated city. So parts of the area around Yandell Road fall probably fall under Canton and everything else is Madison County regulated I would guess.

 

[bruiser.sixpack]

You don't say...

I do say. And I also think there needs to be a move towards relocating the Capital of Mississippi from the crap hole the Democrats have turned Jackson into.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Lot of difference in 2008 and now. The loans with non prime require a lot of money down 10-30% usually, no such thing as 100% loan like it was with sub prime. Most people with that low of score don’t have the cash for that. I haven’t seen any here in Desoto County area yet.

Real Estate will slow down as it always ebbs and flows. However, remember real estate is regional. We have a record low inventory here in Desoto County, it will take builders years to catch up to the demand. I’m working with 9 families right now that I can’t find houses for here.

I agree. We are not likely to see a national bubble burst.

I expect suburbs and small vibrant cities to explode for another year or two. Work from anywhere is here to stay. But in a few years, people will flock back to cities.

Some historians/epidemiologists are predicting full vaccine distribution/end of pandemic by end of 2021. Socioeconomic recovery in 2022-2023. Then 2024 and beyond is going to be the roaring 2020's. Packed clubs, theaters, and concerts will be the norm again. Apparently the original roaring 20's were a direct result of WW1, Spanish Flu, and Prohibition. It seems like human nature is to overreact one way and then overreact the polar opposite way.

If we think about how single family housing fits in it will be interesting. The biggest threat will always be rising interest rates. Rates will rise when central banks can't cover up inflation anymore. But another threat looming is a flock to the suburbs for a few years only to flock back into the city when urban real estate is at rock bottom. Add in a shitload of boomers that will be downsizing and I think you are destined for at least some localized bubbles popping.

I would probably prefer to be in a smaller city and in a great school district. Long term schools and jobs always help maintain property values.