OT: EV tax credit

[BigWill]

Energy pricing in electric grids are priced on electric demand within the grid every 15 minutes.

As demand rises, during daylight hours thru commuting till the region goes to bed, pricing goes up and power producers put more generation on line to meet demand. Heat and humidity come into play as AC put huge demands on the need for electric power, sometimes for over 24 hours in a row.

It is estimated that IF the Federal Government took over all of Nevada and turned into 100 % solar panels, there would be sufficient electric power for the USA during the day. Which would be good for AC and our Casinos as Vegas would disappear under solar panels.

Nuke is the easiest power to use for huge changes in electric demand. But it can only generate what the plant is rated for at 100 % capacity. When there is the DEMAND for more power within the grid, it has to come from somewhere else, either starting up standbye generation or buying from another grid and moving it into our grid. Some of you that drive the NJ Turnpike can see gas generation units that are only operated at time of peak demand in the summer/humid days.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

The problem, though, is that the subsidies for solar and wind has driven the price down to equal to or below nuclear, resulting in nuclear plants being sunsetted, especially in California.

Nuclear power plants are way too expensive. Plus, there is the nettlesome storage issue for the fuel rods.

 

[BigWill]

Nuke plants are here and MORE are being built world wide, especially in CHINA.

The Federal Govt has spent billions building up a storage facility, but not one thing has been transported there as yet.

So the spent rods are stored at the site, under armed guards 24 x 7.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Two nuke plants being built in Georgia are going to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 BILLION dollars. The plants have been under construction for over 10 years and still are not operating. And for anyone bitching about solar and wind subsidies, they pale in comparison to nukes.

IDAS what China does or doesn't do. New nuclear power construction in the advanced democracies is largely dead. There is little sense economically to proceed with nukes.

 

[mildone_rivals]

Lithium won't be a problem.

We'll see. Lot of people betting huge on EVs right now. That will drive things in the short term.

After that, nobody knows what will happen.

 

[BigWill]

Two nuke plants being built in Georgia are going to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 BILLION dollars. The plants have been under construction for over 10 years and still are not operating. And for anyone bitching about solar and wind subsidies, they pale in comparison to nukes.

IDAS what China does or doesn't do. New nuclear power construction in the advanced democracies is largely dead. There is little sense economically to proceed with nukes.

75% of electric power generated in France is Nuke.

54 plants are currently under construction in the world, majority in China.

The largest default in American bond history was the default of the Whoops bonds issued for the construction of Nuke plants in State of Washington, found to be on a fault line. At one time AAA tax exempt bonds.

 

[RU#1fan]

ICE cars "advancing at a furious pace". In what universe?
This is futile. Best of luck

ICE cars are going the way of the Ice Age, not coming back.

 

[mildone_rivals]

ICE cars are going the way of the Ice Age, not coming back.

Maybe. Nonetheless, a ton of R&D is still taking place on ICEs at the moment, and not just in hybridization tech. And it’s far from certain that electrification is going to wind up the dominant auto power tech in 25-50 years.

A lot of different and potentially relevant technologies, not just fuel, hybrid, and electric, are advancing far too fast to make absolute tech predictions about almost any industry 25 years out.

 

[BigWill]

I repeat that someone that invents a safe method of storing Hydrogen onboard for a standard sized MV will revolutionize ICE AND EV types of propulsion.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

I repeat that someone that invents a safe method of storing Hydrogen onboard for a standard sized MV will revolutionize ICE AND EV types of propulsion.

Never going to be cheaper( $/kWh) than batteries charged by solar or wind.
Too many steps for hydrogen...make it, store it, transport, distribution, plus it's less energy efficient vs batteries.

 

[mildone_rivals]

Never going to be cheaper( $/kWh) than batteries charged by solar or wind.
Too many steps for hydrogen...make it, store it, transport, distribution, plus it's less energy efficient vs batteries.

You're an intelligent guy. So I'm baffled as to why you keep trying to state things about the future in absolutes and certain terms.

If you want to say you think it's likely that Lithium Ion batteries, charged using solar and wind, are going to eventually overcome ICEs using any of the known alternatives for fueling, and then remain the dominant motor vehicle power source for awhile, then that would be a perfectly reasonable statement to make. That's the current trend and the investments in that technology are substantial.

But industry trends change and investments sometimes don't work out. Being certain or absolute about any of this is as unwise as it is unprovable.

 

[RUevolution36]

I repeat that someone that invents a safe method of storing Hydrogen onboard for a standard sized MV will revolutionize ICE AND EV types of propulsion.

Toyota and Honda have had hyrdogen fcv on the road for several years. I think Hyundai just got into the hydrogen fcv game also. it's not a matter of IF they can do it...it's a matter of, is there an appetite for it and can the infrastructure be built to accommodate it. If you thought finding a Supercharger station is hard, try finding a Hydrogen gas station. Unfortunately for the auto industry, the almighty Musk has said that FCV are stupid, so the fanboys will do everything in their power to squash it for him.

 

[fsg2_rivals]

Toyota and Honda have had hyrdogen fcv on the road for several years. I think Hyundai just got into the hydrogen fcv game also. it's not a matter of IF they can do it...it's a matter of, is there an appetite for it and can the infrastructure be built to accommodate it. If you thought finding a Supercharger station is hard, try finding a Hydrogen gas station. Unfortunately for the auto industry, the almighty Musk has said that FCV are stupid, so the fanboys will do everything in their power to squash it for him.

Yeah, not sure what he was on about. Hydrogen has been around for years. And the biggest proponent of hydrogen is now (finally) embracing battery electrics. Hydrogen remains an afterthought.

Hydrogen FC cars have been a big pile of meh. 300-mile ranges looked good five years ago, but not so much now, definitely not without the infrastructure.

Hydrogen feels to have been passed by at this point. All the exciting car tech and the infrastructure is in electric, and don't see that changing anytime soon.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Toyota and Honda have had hyrdogen fcv on the road for several years. I think Hyundai just got into the hydrogen fcv game also. it's not a matter of IF they can do it...it's a matter of, is there an appetite for it and can the infrastructure be built to accommodate it. If you thought finding a Supercharger station is hard, try finding a Hydrogen gas station. Unfortunately for the auto industry, the almighty Musk has said that FCV are stupid, so the fanboys will do everything in their power to squash it for him.

FCV is really promising, but there is a whole lot of infrastructure that must be built before fuel cells become truly viable. Last I checked there are about 50 fuel cell fueling stations in the entire country - all (I think) in California. I looked it up for the Sacramento area where I live. There are 3 stations serving a population of 2.5 million. All 3 were consistently out of service - either no fuel available or too hot.

 

[RUevolution36]

Yeah, not sure what he was on about. Hydrogen has been around for years. And the biggest proponent of hydrogen is now (finally) embracing battery electrics. Hydrogen remains an afterthought.

Hydrogen FC cars have been a big pile of meh. 300-mile ranges looked good five years ago, but not so much now, definitely not without the infrastructure.

Hydrogen feels to have been passed by at this point. All the exciting car tech and the infrastructure is in electric, and don't see that changing anytime soon.

It doesn't have to be an either/ or situation. EV and FCV (or even some other ICE tech) can coexist.

 

[fsg2_rivals]

It doesn't have to be an either/ or situation. EV and FCV (or even some other ICE tech) can coexist.

It doesn't necessarily have to, but I think it will. Hydrogen's best attribute was a longer range over early EVs. Now that EVs are surpassing it, it doesn't make much sense to build out a whole charging infrastructure for hydrogen while the industry is moving all electric.

ICEs will continue on for decades but more and more like a lame duck.

 

[BigWill]

Figure out the cost of building out the infra for EV charging, Tesla says they are doing 1,000 worldwide. Then figure out where the electric generation is going to come from at EVERYONE is recharging at night, and don't say storage, it doesn't exist.

Today, Right NOW, when Cuomo forces NY to close their nuke plant above the Tappan Zee bridge the NYC metro area will LOSE 25 % of the AVAILABLE electric power during peak load time.

NOT in 2030 or 2040, the next day the plant no longer produces electric power into the grid.

Those that say solar/wind/tides/hydro should study what a MEGAWATT is and how many have to be found to just stay the same, not figuring in any economic development needing more electric power

 

[RUevolution36]

if only we could figure out how to use the spent nuclear rods to fuel propulsion in space travel...

 

[mildone_rivals]

It doesn't necessarily have to, but I think it will. Hydrogen's best attribute was a longer range over early EVs. Now that EVs are surpassing it, it doesn't make much sense to build out a whole charging infrastructure for hydrogen while the industry is moving all electric.

ICEs will continue on for decades but more and more like a lame duck.

I also think ICE sales will diminish greatly as EVs gain steam (see what I did there?).

However, I think ICE sales will remain strong in the sports car segment, albeit likely using new and cleaner fuel alternatives that are under development now. Because there are plenty of folks, like me, for whom driving is far more than a means of getting from point A to point B. And even if the alternative fuels are more expensive, we're willing to pay for it. It seems, based on their willingness to invest a lot in synthetic fuel research and development, that a number of automotive producers understand and support that mindset, as they should since it provides them with hefty profits.

But yeah, in most other segments, as ordinary cars go the EV route, only newer innovations in energy technology or insurmountable issues w/Lithium-Ion batteries will put the brakes (puns abound) on the mass electrification of cars.

 

[RUevolution36]

I also think ICE sales will diminish greatly as EVs gain steam (see what I did there?).

However, I think ICE sales will remain strong in the sports car segment, albeit likely using new and cleaner fuel alternatives that are under development now. Because there are plenty of folks, like me, for whom driving is far more than a means of getting from point A to point B. And even if the alternative fuels are more expensive, we're willing to pay for it. It seems, based on their willingness to invest a lot in synthetic fuel research and development, that a number of automotive producers understand and support that mindset, as they should since it provides them with hefty profits.

But yeah, in most other segments, as ordinary cars go the EV route, only newer innovations in energy technology or insurmountable issues w/Lithium-Ion batteries will put the brakes (puns abound) on the mass electrification of cars.

i don't think the need for some sort of ICE goes away completely until EV's can self-charge. They might be very niche, but beyond just sports cars, there is a need. Thinking of very remote areas where charging stations won't be so easy...i.e., the australian outback, remote areas in 3rd world countries, etc. where the ability to carry extra gas cans with you is important.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

Tax credits are fine as long as they are only for American companies making products that are at least 50 percent Made in USA. People don’t want these helping German, Japanese, or other foreign companies.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

Higher credits should be given if they are made in states that will be hurt by energy conversions such as West Virginia, Kentucky, North Dakota, Texas, etc.

 

[fsg2_rivals]

i don't think the need for some sort of ICE goes away completely until EV's can self-charge. They might be very niche, but beyond just sports cars, there is a need. Thinking of very remote areas where charging stations won't be so easy...i.e., the australian outback, remote areas in 3rd world countries, etc. where the ability to carry extra gas cans with you is important.

(MUCH) more efficient solar panels will be the key there. With that, EVs will become superior to ICEs for those applications. Not only will they be able to power up in those locations, but they'll be able to run tools and electrical equipment. And the torque boost and vectoring is a handy bonus.

I reckon a different option for polar expeditions and other low-light environments.

 

[RUevolution36]

Tax credits are fine as long as they are only for American companies making products that are at least 50 percent Made in USA. People don’t want these helping German, Japanese, or other foreign companies.

what about German and Japanese car companies that have a majority of labor and materials sourced in the US vs American companies that manufacture elsewhere? That Honda Ridgeline is way more American than the Chevy Silverado.

 

[RUevolution36]

(MUCH) more efficient solar panels will be the key there. With that, EVs will become superior to ICEs for those applications. Not only will they be able to power up in those locations, but they'll be able to run tools and electrical equipment. And the torque boost and vectoring is a handy bonus.

I reckon a different option for polar expeditions and other low-light environments.

and how long is that going to take to develop and manufacture at scale?

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Figure out the cost of building out the infra for EV charging, Tesla says they are doing 1,000 worldwide. Then figure out where the electric generation is going to come from at EVERYONE is recharging at night, and don't say storage, it doesn't exist.

Today, Right NOW, when Cuomo forces NY to close their nuke plant above the Tappan Zee bridge the NYC metro area will LOSE 25 % of the AVAILABLE electric power during peak load time.

NOT in 2030 or 2040, the next day the plant no longer produces electric power into the grid.

Those that say solar/wind/tides/hydro should study what a MEGAWATT is and how many have to be found to just stay the same, not figuring in any economic development needing more electric power

Why all the hand wringing? There will be big advances in energy storage + big upgrades to the grid. The energy sector is dynamic and changing rapidly.

 

[fsg2_rivals]

and how long is that going to take to develop and manufacture at scale?

No idea but solar panels and lithium batteries have already helped to revolutionize that exact segment, bringing in off-grid power capability that was not previously possible. Not sure why they need scale if we're talking a minute segment of highly priced specialized expedition vehicles.

And if battery capacity continues to increase, it won't even matter. What's the farthest earthly distance from an electrical outlet, and how many people are traveling to it? Years back, one guy completed a rally with four-figure mileage through Russia and Mongolia in a Nissan Leaf. Think I just saw he's preparing for a similar expedition now.

Anyway, it's not so farfetched to think that an electric 4x4 will, in the not so distant future, be able to outrun a Wrangler with less than a tank's worth of 5-gal jerry cans hanging off the spare tire.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

i don't think the need for some sort of ICE goes away completely until EV's can self-charge. They might be very niche, but beyond just sports cars, there is a need. Thinking of very remote areas where charging stations won't be so easy...i.e., the australian outback, remote areas in 3rd world countries, etc. where the ability to carry extra gas cans with you is important.

Yes, yes - ICE vehicles will be around for decades, probably forever. I don't think serious thinkers believe ICE vehicles are going away completely. However, ZEVs will become an increasingly larger share of the market each successive year. Telsa Model 3 is already the best selling premium sedan in the world.

 

[mildone_rivals]

i don't think the need for some sort of ICE goes away completely until EV's can self-charge. They might be very niche, but beyond just sports cars, there is a need. Thinking of very remote areas where charging stations won't be so easy...i.e., the australian outback, remote areas in 3rd world countries, etc. where the ability to carry extra gas cans with you is important.

True, there are scenarios where EVs are likely to remain poorly suited. Although hybrid tech and solar tech and other self-charging technologies will advance rapidly. We're solving tech problems much faster than we used to, across all kinds of different domains. Which is why I won't be surprised to see something else overtake Lithium Ion power for cars, despite the current trend.

At the moment EVs still have a long way to go (the puns just write themselves on this topic LOL). For example, we just had a Formula E race where 12 of the 24 race cars ran out of power before the race ended:

https://jalopnik.com/first-formula-e-race-on-a-traditional-circuit-ends-with-1846755911.

Pretty funny. The race teams that ran out of gas, so to speak, are blaming the FIA for screwing up in their automatic safety car battery depletion rates. But still, 12 cars not finishing? Oops.

 

[Jtung230]

The biggest problem for ICE is that the R&D dollars are gone. It’s not a question of if but when EV takes over.

 

[BigWill]

Why all the hand wringing? There will be big advances in energy storage + big upgrades to the grid. The energy sector is dynamic and changing rapidly.

Not even close to being accurate.

The power grid is OLD and STUCK in it's ways at Political appointments head and staff Public Utility Commissions.

I am still waiting to see how Cuomo, if he isn't thrown out of office, will replace the 25 % of electric power needed every day in NYC when he closes Indian point.

This isn't down the road, this IS SOON.