OT: Economic Recovery

[T2Kplus10]

If you could earn 5% anywhere else the market would tank

This "if" doesn't exist, which means, the market will be back to a record high very soon after the hysteria dies down and society reopens.

 

[anvilofstars]

We have more than 40k dead already and we have nutjobs claiming it's hysteria. Where do these people come from?

 

[fluoxetine]

deflation signs are popping up. Today, WTI (oil) May contracts are negative $37 a barrel. Literally paying you to take oil. Hope we don't end up like Japan's lost decades. it will be interesting to see if the millennials will have the consumer habits as baby boomers and Gen X.

Eh, oil is a pretty special case because of storage costs and the difficulty of starting/stopping production.

 

[Jtung230]

Eh, oil is a pretty special case because of storage costs and the difficulty of starting/stopping production.

100% agree but do you feel more inflation or deflation right now? Big ticket items are on fire sale.

 

[MoobyCow]

If someone figure out how to trigger inflation reliably they should let Japan know, they've been trying for years.

I tend to think deflation is more likely, but I also recognize this is like nothing, ever, so I'm not very confident I have any idea what's going to happen.

 

[WhiteBus]

100% agree but do you feel more inflation or deflation right now? Big ticket items are on fire sale.

The flip of that Supermarkets can't have items on sale like they normally do with 14 page circulars simply because we all can't guarantee the product coming in on time. So much of what you buy now is regular price.

 

[WhiteBus]

I used to hit the bar almost every day after work, kill about 4 or 5 Buds and usually leave a 3 to 5$ tip. Now I’m drinking canned Bud at home for about a buck a beer and no tip. I got to thinking: I can get used to this! And if I’m thinking this way I’m sure others are too. It’s saving me a good amount of coin. Wonder what the long term affects of this shutdown will be. How many ppl will change their habits such as drinking out and eating out?

Great point.
I have already changed my buying habits on what I sell in the store. Still bring in the major brands, to a point, but craft beer selection is dominated by local privately owned breweries.
Also when this is over I will drink less beer but support local bars/breweries and their bartenders by visiting more places for one brew, tip excessively and move onto the next.
People's habits will change but I think it will balance out.

 

[anvilofstars]

If someone figure out how to trigger inflation reliably they should let Japan know, they've been trying for years.

I tend to think deflation is more likely, but I also recognize this is like nothing, ever, so I'm not very confident I have any idea what's going to happen.

Isn’t the answer to open immigration or make lots of babies?

 

[MoobyCow]

Isn’t the answer to open immigration or make lots of babies?

Figuring out how to get first world countries to have lots of babies is something else no one has done.

Mass immigration might work, but it also destabilizes countries past a certain level.

 

[Jtung230]

The flip of that Supermarkets can't have items on sale like they normally do with 14 page circulars simply because we all can't guarantee the product coming in on time. So much of what you buy now is regular price.

Yes, but the problem is not with supply. Dairy farmers are dumping milk and produce farmers are destroying their crops.

 

[WhiteBus]

Yes, but the problem is not with supply. Dairy farmers are dumping milk and produce farmers are destroying their crops.

Agree. As I have been saying all along in the supermarket thread. Supply isn't the issue. Transportation and distribution is.

 

[LC-88]

This "if" doesn't exist, which means, the market will be back to a record high very soon after the hysteria dies down and society reopens.

My life insurance policy from 1988 has a 5% guaranteed return cash option.

 

[anvilofstars]

Figuring out how to get first world countries to have lots of babies is something else no one has done.

Mass immigration might work, but it also destabilizes countries past a certain level.

I agree. I was being facetious to a degree. The planet can only handle so many people.

 

[albanyknight]

Making fun of him and his consistent gloom and doom posts. He knows what it means.....in a lighthearted way.

I would hope after you posted the same meme 500 times, I would get its meaning.

Anyway, I am not 'gloom and doom.' But I am also not the cowardly Lion standing shaking in the woods praying everything is going to be somehow alright. If you don't understand by now what is happening you are either terminally obtuse or you are brainwashed.

All I have ever said is the current system is unsustainable, it was unsustainable before the Pandemic and now it is DOA. There will be a forgiveness of debt and we will start over in a new monetary system.

And in between there is going to be a ton of pain, especially for the folks who put all of their eggs in one basket...............the stock basket.

But if I bring you joy by being the foil of your prepubescent posts, then I am happy to help.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I would hope after you posted the same meme 500 times, I would get its meaning.

Anyway, I am not 'gloom and doom.' But I am also not the cowardly Lion standing shaking in the woods praying everything is going to be somehow alright. If you don't understand by now what is happening you are either terminally obtuse or you are brainwashed.

All I have ever said is the current system is unsustainable, it was unsustainable before the Pandemic and now it is DOA. There will be a forgiveness of debt and we will start over in a new monetary system.

And in between there is going to be a ton of pain, especially for the folks who put all of their eggs in one basket...............the stock basket.

But if I bring you joy by being the foil of your prepubescent posts, then I am happy to help.

Interesting, I have pictured you as the cowardly lion standing and shaking in the wood being afraid of every noise and everything going wrong. Same visual, but different context.

Anyway, I'm sure the economy and market will be fine in relatively short order. Prior to the corona hysteria the economy was rock solid. It will be that again soon. I just don't see the systemic issues that you have been crying wolf about for the past 5 years.

But yes, you are correct, someone's eggs should never be in one basket.

Let's see what happens.

 

[albanyknight]

Interesting, I have pictured you as the cowardly lion standing and shaking in the wood being afraid of every noise and everything going wrong. Same visual, but different context.

Anyway, I'm sure the economy and market will be fine in relatively short order. Prior to the corona hysteria the economy was rock solid. It will be that again soon. I just don't see the systemic issues that you have been crying wolf about for the past 5 years.

But yes, you are correct, someone's eggs should never be in one basket.

Let's see what happens.

Interesting indeed. It takes a whole lot more courage to go out on a limb and think for oneself and participate in a board where everyone thinks you are nuts than the mob mentality that you are part of on the CE Board.

Anyway, you are wrong, dead wrong. Which I really wouldn't care about except you have influenced a bunch of people on the CE Board to think like you.

And btw clueless, it has already happened. You have been fatally shot, you just don't know it yet. Yeah, we will see.

 

[RU05]

Sold my Amazon stock near it's record highs.

And put that money into a few different stocks that are selling closer to it's recent lows but currently have a very high dividend yield.

 

[Jtung230]

Sold my Amazon stock near it's record highs.

And put that money into a few different stocks that are selling closer to it's recent lows but currently have a very high dividend yield.

very technical. Like it. Is this a trade or investment? Are you planning to rotate back to AMZN if it sells off?

 

[Jtung230]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she...ction-loan-her-employees-hate-her-for-it.html

I forget who, but someone posted about too high of a payout for unemployment.

 

[tom1944]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she...ction-loan-her-employees-hate-her-for-it.html

I forget who, but someone posted about too high of a payout for unemployment.

I feel bad for her

I have a friend who is an employer and he had a conversation with his employees about this prior to deciding what to do.

 

[rurahrah000]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she...ction-loan-her-employees-hate-her-for-it.html

I forget who, but someone posted about too high of a payout for unemployment.

We were inching closer to socialism, but now we are snowballing towards it. The danger was us becoming a socialist country under the democratic government, but that was never the danger. If the democrats were in charge and had proposed the CARES act, there was be mass protests by the republicans (similar to the ACA bill). But under republican rule, there is no resistance.

 

[RU05]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she...ction-loan-her-employees-hate-her-for-it.html

I forget who, but someone posted about too high of a payout for unemployment.

Yeah, I'm starting to hear this too. Guys making their $500 unemployment, plus the additional $600, so $1100 per week, so when jobs pop up, guys don't want to go.

 

[RU05]

very technical. Like it. Is this a trade or investment? Are you planning to rotate back to AMZN if it sells off?

The move towards high dividend yield stocks which are selling so low are definitely long term moves.

Now some companies are suspending dividends, and some others are or may adjust the dividend, but one of the stocks I transferred too went from a 50% dividend to a 25% dividend, so I'm not too upset by that. But we shall see what some of these other companies do.


As per Amazon, I'm thinking it settles back a bit, and then I'll jump back in. Between it's on line sales, it's streaming service, and it's cloud services, I don't think there is another company set up better in the coronavirus economy. So why sell? I think everyone has pulled their money from other stocks and invested in Amazon, as the economny and market begin to swing back up, I think people will pull some money from Amazon and go back towards the stocks which are currently selling way below their Coronavirus prices. We've actually seen that a bit in the last couple market up days.

 

[Jtung230]

@RU-05

I never like buying a stock because of dividends. Equity and fixed income should be separate investments.

More negative signs for the economy as tech companies are freezing hires and stop spending. The V shape is looking less likely.

 

[RU05]

@RU-05

I never like buying a stock because of dividends. Equity and fixed income should be separate investments.

More negative signs for the economy as tech companies are freezing hires and stop spending. The V shape is looking less likely.

I'm new to this whole thing, but imo, an investment is an investment, and if you can get a high dividend with the potential for a big raise in stock price, then how is that not a no brainer? It's like built in diversification.

One of the stocks I went stronger in after my Amazon sale was up 26% today after being up 15ish% yesterday. And it pays a 26% dividend.

Again I'm new to this so I don't know how this plays out, and maybe it's too good to be true, but early results are looking fantastic.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Interesting indeed. It takes a whole lot more courage to go out on a limb and think for oneself and participate in a board where everyone thinks you are nuts than the mob mentality that you are part of on the CE Board.

Anyway, you are wrong, dead wrong. Which I really wouldn't care about except you have influenced a bunch of people on the CE Board to think like you.

And btw clueless, it has already happened. You have been fatally shot, you just don't know it yet. Yeah, we will see.

That's my AK! Hyperbole to the extreme. Good grief.

 

[albanyknight]

That's my AK! Hyperbole to the extreme. Good grief.

It took you three days to come up with that response?

My Lord are you a clown.

 

[T2Kplus10]

It took you three days to come up with that response?

My Lord are you a clown.

I forgot about you for a few days. Easy to do. Looking forward to your next CL post.

 

[albanyknight]

I forgot about you for a few days. Easy to do. Looking forward to your next CL post.

Nah. You are on this board day and night. More likely you couldn't stand me getting in the last word.

It is just tearing you apart that everything I told you over the past five years is coming to pass. If there is one universal truth about you and the 6-8 charter members of the Current Events Clown Car, is that you cannot stand to be proven wrong.

 

[T2Kplus10]

It is just tearing you apart that everything I told you over the past five years is coming to pass. If there is one universal truth about you and the 6-8 charter members of the Current Events Clown Car, is that you cannot stand to be proven wrong.

Definition of delusional. Please bump your post claiming that a virus from China will freak out the nation and cause the government to shut down the economy. Yeah, didn't think so.

Pharma is unaffected and in some TAs, sales are up. Market is down a little bit temporarily and I'm taking advantage of this great buying opportunity. Why do you think things are bad? Oh, I know why! You are a:

 

[yesrutgers01]

Yeah, I'm starting to hear this too. Guys making their $500 unemployment, plus the additional $600, so $1100 per week, so when jobs pop up, guys don't want to go.

Watch for companies that furloughed employees who don't want to come back to work because of this or those that were just laid off and the company is offering to hire them back- one of the questions you are answering under "oath" when you claimed is if you turned down any work...I can almost bet some asshat companies will notify NJ that you turned down the job.

 

[Jtung230]

Watch for companies that furloughed employees who don't want to come back to work because of this or those that were just laid off and the company is offering to hire them back- one of the questions you are answering under "oath" when you claimed is if you turned down any work...I can almost bet some asshat companies will notify NJ that you turned down the job.

it's not only the fact that you might get more but you also have to go to the back of the line. The PPP only covers 8 weeks.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Watch for companies that furloughed employees who don't want to come back to work because of this or those that were just laid off and the company is offering to hire them back- one of the questions you are answering under "oath" when you claimed is if you turned down any work...I can almost bet some asshat companies will notify NJ that you turned down the job.

Employees need to be respectful and understanding when bringing people back to work (office or on-site). Some will be more comfortable than others. Needs to be a balance. You don't want scared people in an office making everyone else nervous.

 

[RUschool]

What happen, something got deleted?

 

[linzalonic]

I'm new to this whole thing, but imo, an investment is an investment, and if you can get a high dividend with the potential for a big raise in stock price, then how is that not a no brainer? It's like built in diversification.

One of the stocks I went stronger in after my Amazon sale was up 26% today after being up 15ish% yesterday. And it pays a 26% dividend.

Again I'm new to this so I don't know how this plays out, and maybe it's too good to be true, but early results are looking fantastic.

26% dividend?? That is a giant red flag

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

26% dividend?? That is a giant red flag

Absolutely. Likely most of that is return of capital or initial investment.

 

[rutgersquikcat]

This was an interesting thread. I tend to agree that the markets will recover and eventually hit new highs, but I think a lot of investors are overestimating the speed of that recovery. I don’t think we can hit where we were until 2021. The recovery will be a little slower because behaviors change slowly. It will take a while to get Americans to consume at their pre covid levels. It always takes longer to hire people then to fire them. Then of course there is world demand, and I think Europe might take even longer to recover.

Hope I am wrong and we do see the v shape. But I think the right side will be dragged down a bit and take longer.

 

[TheHandOfChaos]

They will have plenty of money (see upcoming relief bill) and will have their jobs back quickly because of demand. This is not an economic problem, it's a hysteria problem.

Wow.

 

[yesrutgers01]

Employees need to be respectful and understanding when bringing people back to work (office or on-site). Some will be more comfortable than others. Needs to be a balance. You don't want scared people in an office making everyone else nervous.

Agree...If I was an employee that was let go and now getting my unemployment and the plus $600 goes to about August or so and is near the salary I was making...It would be very tough to go back into an office if I could only do so through mass transit. Or if the job is a close contact job.
Same if I was moved from the office to a WFH and have been able to do my job from home but now the company insists I go back to brick and mortar.
On the other hand- If I am that company and employee could drive in and the work is not close contact and they are refusing to come in because they got comfortable and no reason for them not to come back- that would piss me off as the employer as well.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Agree...If I was an employee that was let go and now getting my unemployment and the plus $600 goes to about August or so and is near the salary I was making...It would be very tough to go back into an office if I could only do so through mass transit. Or if the job is a close contact job.
Same if I was moved from the office to a WFH and have been able to do my job from home but now the company insists I go back to brick and mortar.
On the other hand- If I am that company and employee could drive in and the work is not close contact and they are refusing to come in because they got comfortable and no reason for them not to come back- that would piss me off as the employer as well.

All very true. Our office was very flexible with in-office time anyway, so moving to WFH was simple. I already told my team, when we get the green light that the office is open again, be honest regarding your comfort and preference. As long as the work is getting done, we are good. This sentiment is echoed by our US and global leadership.