OT: Economic Recovery
- Thread starter Jtung230
- Start date
Common sense from Goldman - artificial down followed by a historically quick recovery (V-shaped for sure):
Goldman sees 15% jobless rate and 34% GDP decline, followed by the fastest recovery in history
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/cor...-jobless-rate-followed-by-record-rebound.html
Goldman sees 15% jobless rate and 34% GDP decline, followed by the fastest recovery in history
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/cor...-jobless-rate-followed-by-record-rebound.html
GS also said we will test the lows again. Should sell now and buy back in if you buy what GS is selling.
BofA vice chair: ‘Time in the market, not timing the market’ proves most lucrative long term
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/bof...estors-against-trying-to-time-the-market.html
The vast majority of people trying to time the market screw up and lose out. Don't be a chicken little, stay the course and keep buying.
It's not timing the market. It's about understanding the risks. Does the chicken little line work on you?
A doomsday preacher,Tim Mc Hyde,predicts that the economy will make a full recovery.The bad news from him is that Russia nukes us in 2026.
I think you should stop calling it hysteria. Even your boy Trump is starting to finally realize the gravity of the situation.
Why even post such ********?
A "doomsday preacher" doesn't know the first thing about Russian strategic force readiness and wouldn't be able to predict a nuclear first strike with any more accuracy than your average goldfish.
Actually , China and Russia will be at odds ...Russia will ask for the help of the USA...doesn’t sound feasible? ... I hope this prediction given in 1959 is wrong but so far several other events are spot on ...very scary but it has been well documented.
And the people making north of $99k probably provided the lions share of the money getting handed out. Should waive the cap if person is laid off.
Dude you're a certifiable crackpot. Get professional help.
China isn't going to nuke anyone except Taiwan or India. They'll lose their trading partners and their economy is not self sustaining enough to do that.
Good point. I think most people in the V camp think 12 months and U is 2-4 years.
I find it funny that so many people think the economy will be fine or better than ever after this passes. So many companies will close for good by the end of April. Permanent unemployment will be at a record high in weeks and will take for ever to recover.
Anyone who believes this is going to be solved in a month or 2 or 6 really needs to re-evaluate their news sources at the end of this year.
Set up a reminder on your phone stating your stance on this economic crisis for the end of this year. See how wrong you were and understand after looking at that, that you aren’t stupid, but you’ve fallen for the propaganda that other people are feeding.
Be honest with your self. Politics isn’t a team sport. If you believe that, you have been duped. Vote in your best interest and that of your family.
Set up a reminder on your phone stating your stance on this economic crisis for the end of this year. See how wrong you were and understand after looking at that, that you aren’t stupid, but you’ve fallen for the propaganda that other people are feeding.
Be honest with your self. Politics isn’t a team sport. If you believe that, you have been duped. Vote in your best interest and that of your family.
The thing is eventually the economy probably WILL be better than ever, and by saying "once this passes" without giving a quantifiable timeline means that whether the economy recovers a year from now, 5 years from now, or 10 years from now, those people will look back and pat themselves on the back.
And there are a bunch of sectors which are just not going to snap right back.
The longer this thing goes the more that it erodes away at what were strong economic foundations.
This is going to cause a global recession, resulting in high unemployment across the world. Those people who were furloughed aren't going to immediately get on planes to take trips, buy cars and TVs. They'll be paying down their credit card bills first. The people who lost their jobs permanently will have to get new jobs before they make big purchases.
State and local governments will raise taxes to rebuild their coffers.
None of this sounds like a rapid economic recovery.
State and local governments will raise taxes to rebuild their coffers.
None of this sounds like a rapid economic recovery.
Technically, it is two negative quarters of GDP growth. But like a Michigan game in the last 4 years, it’s a foregone conclusion after the first quarter.
Interesting time to look at things! Our overall financial assets (i.e., not including property) are down 8.8%. Our specific investments accounts are down 15.1%. This is just an estimate from our peak at the end of Feb.
I’m down 10% in the last yr, mainly because I ripped up 5% on the short side last week.
I do it every quarter. I also do it to make sure the portfolio is allocated correctly. Here is how I did in the last 3 years. 19.3%, -1.56%, 16,7%
I do the annual rebalancing and assess allocations perhaps twice a year. I checked our individual investment accounts and most are inline with the average above (except for a smaller one that is all US equities.....yikes.....
).Back to the topic at hand
Let’s assume for a minute that this thing can get under control in the next 45-60’days so that most people can get back to work after Memorial Day...even if we still have some social ditsncing happening (the alternative is if this thing requires the current social distancing and stay at home policy for months
, we are going to be in the Great Depression part 2...so that’s a different conversation for a different day)
So what should we be doing to get the economy back on the feet
Here is my take
1.) we need to have legislation passed that allows people to hold off paying rents and mortgage and reschedule payments of them over time. Banks and real estate companies will need help to get through this . Need to keep people afloat and stop foreclosures and defaults. Interest remains low so if we continue to keep interest low, the cost to repay over time isn’t impossible.
2.) we need to keep money flowing to people to keep afloat. Unemployment insurance that’s started is a good start but more is going to be needed. The critical part of getting economic activity gojng again will be if they will spend later. If the unemployed are too behind on their bills, they won’t spend beyond their needs. Need to keep everyone afloat so spending goes up and gets the economy turning
3.) the investment in America infrastructure needs to be the fourth legislation. We need to spend on our future and get people back to work that are displaced. The hard part of this will be getting service oriented people trained to work in non-service roles. Certainly can be done to a certain degree...but not completely.Displaced people however, will be more open to a job change when the alternative is not working ...so there will be a decent movement of people from service to construction, labor and manufacturing.
It’s so much harder to get the economic engine started when the engine is seized. If it stops , we are in bigger long term trouble
We need to keep the engine moving, however slowly, to get it moving faster quicker later...
Let’s assume for a minute that this thing can get under control in the next 45-60’days so that most people can get back to work after Memorial Day...even if we still have some social ditsncing happening (the alternative is if this thing requires the current social distancing and stay at home policy for months
, we are going to be in the Great Depression part 2...so that’s a different conversation for a different day)
So what should we be doing to get the economy back on the feet
Here is my take
1.) we need to have legislation passed that allows people to hold off paying rents and mortgage and reschedule payments of them over time. Banks and real estate companies will need help to get through this . Need to keep people afloat and stop foreclosures and defaults. Interest remains low so if we continue to keep interest low, the cost to repay over time isn’t impossible.
2.) we need to keep money flowing to people to keep afloat. Unemployment insurance that’s started is a good start but more is going to be needed. The critical part of getting economic activity gojng again will be if they will spend later. If the unemployed are too behind on their bills, they won’t spend beyond their needs. Need to keep everyone afloat so spending goes up and gets the economy turning
3.) the investment in America infrastructure needs to be the fourth legislation. We need to spend on our future and get people back to work that are displaced. The hard part of this will be getting service oriented people trained to work in non-service roles. Certainly can be done to a certain degree...but not completely.Displaced people however, will be more open to a job change when the alternative is not working ...so there will be a decent movement of people from service to construction, labor and manufacturing.
It’s so much harder to get the economic engine started when the engine is seized. If it stops , we are in bigger long term trouble
We need to keep the engine moving, however slowly, to get it moving faster quicker later...
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